A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Nero]

11 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Only thing that really reached high end expectations would be Minions

Yeah minion and tgm, which no one saw coming.

[Cooper Legion]

Pick 1:

MDW releases are cursed 

Other 51 wknds are cursed 

Edited December 15, 2022 by Korra Legion

[Giesi]

The Boom Boom Pow slander was uncalled-for.

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Korra Legion said:

Pick 1:

MDW releases are cursed 

Other 51 wknds are cursed 

Clearly this means A2 will pop off January

[Brainbug]

JWD isnt an underperforming disappointment ...

 

Spoiler

in my heart

 

[Cooper Legion]

3 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Clearly this means A2 will pop off January

The Little Mermaid had better hope not

[JustLurking]

Just now, Korra Legion said:

The Little Mermaid had better hope not

A sacrifice I am willing to make, sorry Halle

[eddyxx]

I probably won’t see this til next weekend. Don’t really feel a rush to go see it and sure a lot of other people feel

the same way. Maybe that will build legs.

[vafrow]

Taking a look at ticket sales in the theatres in my radius, I don't see any sell outs yet, but I have seen a few screenings later today without any tickets sold so far.

 

I understand why theatres are dedicating so many screens, as there's nothing else going on, but it's going to be hard to generate a feeling of scarcity around this if people feel they can get tickets up to the last minute.

 

 

 

[stuart360]

Just judging from what people are saying on here, it seems i over estimated the films final gross potential (not so much OW as i always though OW will be lower and legs higher than say a comic book film), and under esitmated the various factors going against this release.

 

Still with it being Christmas time, i cant see under 3x legs (even Last Jedi almost got 3x legs off a much bigger OW), and i still feel 4x legs is well in play here.

 

Question for me now is can this get over 500mil WW OW, as i feel it will need to if its hitting 2bil.

 

 

 

 

 

[thajdikt]

450x 5 easy 2B

[wildphantom]

Feels a bit like the arrival of The Hobbit after The Lord of the Rings. That feeling it should be absolutely gigantic, but in the end couldn’t quite repeat what they were a decade before. 

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, Verrows said:

It's not the numbers that are surprising me so much as the abrupt turnaround. Internationally speaking the presales were pointing to one of the most massive movie events ever and then everything just came to a screeching halt. Like, not just "not as big as originally thought" but from really good to pretty average.

 

What happened???

 

It's not playing fully 4 quadrant is my bet...it's playing specifically to an audience like the Bond movies without being a Bond movie, at least for the US.  That's my gut before Deadline tells us Friday afternoon with demo breakdowns...some part of a quadrant (or two) or a full quadrant is not coming...

 

And it seems weaker-than-expected with GA for now, since last minute sales have not picked up, and they are also last minute buyers.  Disney and the marketing department have not made the sale for non-invested folks to buy this week - instead, they may have turned them off, but we've had that discussion some and will probably have it more...

 

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[vafrow]

25 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Just judging from what people are saying on here, it seems i over estimated the films final gross potential (not so much OW as i always though OW will be lower and legs higher than say a comic book film), and under esitmated the various factors going against this release.

 

Still with it being Christmas time, i cant see under 3x legs (even Last Jedi almost got 3x legs off a much bigger OW), and i still feel 4x legs is well in play here.

 

Question for me now is can this get over 500mil WW OW, as i feel it will need to if its hitting 2bil.

 

 

 

 

 

 

One thing going for it is that we haven't really seen a Christmas period this empty. Last year was pretty unprecedented, but that still had two adult skewing franchises released over the holidays in Matrix Resurrection and King's Man. Now, they both bombed, but, they were at least options. 

 

There's really nothing else during the one time of the year where many people make their only trip out to the theatres.

 

Babylon and the Whitney Houston are the adult options this time around and they're not bad options, but lack a lot of draw.

[TwoMisfits]

4 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Only thing that really reached high end expectations would be Minions

 

Top Gun Maverick says hi!

 

Edit: And I see someone beat me to this, so I should read all posts 1st:)...

Edited December 15, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[wildphantom]

it’s got weeks to play. It took folks weeks to come out in 2009 so it doesn’t mean they’re in any extra rush this time either. They know they’ve got time and there really isn’t anything else out to compete with it. 

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

One thing going for it is that we haven't really seen a Christmas period this empty. Last year was pretty unprecedented, but that still had two adult skewing franchises released over the holidays in Matrix Resurrection and King's Man. Now, they both bombed, but, they were at least options. 

 

There's really nothing else during the one time of the year where many people make their only trip out to the theatres.

 

Babylon and the Whitney Houston are the adult options this time around and they're not bad options, but lack a lot of draw.

 

Or, and we need to consider this, everyone stays in with friends/family and watch for free (depending on their streaming service):

Glass Onion on Netflix (for adults)

Strange World on D+ (for families)

Matilda the Musical on Netflix (for families)

Top Gun Maverick on Paramount Plus (for everyone)

 

Now, they came out in 2021, but funny enough, everyone was less sick then and that Spiderman movie was an every quadrant huge draw.  We could have a 2020 Christmas vs 2022 b/c while theaters are fully open, everyone seems to be getting sick all the time, and we seem like we're also gonna have 2 horrid ending weeks of weather for December, way colder and wetter than normal, at least on the East Coast...

[M37]

21 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Feels a bit like the arrival of The Hobbit after The Lord of the Rings. That feeling it should be absolutely gigantic, but in the end couldn’t quite repeat what they were a decade before. 

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Or, and we need to consider this, everyone stays in with friends/family and watch for free (depending on their streaming service):

Glass Onion on Netflix (for adults)

Strange World on D+ (for families)

Matilda the Musical on Netflix (for families)

Top Gun Maverick on Paramount Plus (for everyone)

 

Now, they came out in 2021, but funny enough, everyone was less sick then and that Spiderman movie was an every quadrant huge draw.  We could have a 2020 Christmas vs 2022 b/c while theaters are fully open, everyone seems to be getting sick all the time, and we seem like we're also gonna have 2 horrid ending weeks of weather for December, way colder and wetter than normal, at least on the East Coast...

 

Violent Night should also be streaming from next week. Not sure if it's going to Peacock though.

[wildphantom]

9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Or, and we need to consider this, everyone stays in with friends/family and watch for free (depending on their streaming service):

Glass Onion on Netflix (for adults)

Strange World on D+ (for families)

Matilda the Musical on Netflix (for families)

Top Gun Maverick on Paramount Plus (for everyone)

 

Now, they came out in 2021, but funny enough, everyone was less sick then and that Spiderman movie was an every quadrant huge draw.  We could have a 2020 Christmas vs 2022 b/c while theaters are fully open, everyone seems to be getting sick all the time, and we seem like we're also gonna have 2 horrid ending weeks of weather for December, way colder and wetter than normal, at least on the East Coast...

none of those are the equivalent to what TWOW is promising as an experience.
 

For me it’s more the question of whether people will see the film multiple times. Doing $600 million plus domestic means you’ve got to get people coming over and over.  Some people might well just be happy with a one and done. And that’s perfectly understandable seeing as we have had this experience before. 

Edited December 15, 2022 by wildphantom