THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

[Dale Cooper]

Incredible for Mario. However, the talk about 3.5x multi on the 5-day weekend seems a bit excessive. Not even Shrek 2 did that, and it had 2 months of summer weekdays and opened considerably less. I'd say a 3x multi should be the aim.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Awesome to see Mario explode even more so than expected... Just about everyone with any sense knew it would be big but not this big. Reminds me most of Jurassic World but also stuff like Force Awakens and No Way Home. There's a novelty (first true Mario movie that's very, very much for fans and he's absolutely the biggest video game character across generations). I expect something around a 2.5 multiple off whatever the 5 day gross is to be the DOM TOTAL. So something like 525 to 575. Even Rise of Gru and Sonic 2 didn't quite have the legs people expected after impressive openings. I do think with this kind of property there will be some frontloading here. 

 

I'm not certain this will mean other video game movies will break out... I think the biggest are obviously Sonic from SEGA, Crash from SONY PS and Mario from NINTENDO. Zelda would be up there too. Also, unlike super hero movies before the boom we'd seen breakouts like Superman '78, Batman '89, Spider-man '02, etc. We've really not seen a video game with a ton of admissions yet until now with Mario. It's kind of like how other dino/kaiju movies can be big but there's only one Jurassic at the box office. I think Mario is that much bigger in terms of wide appeal other than everything else aside from maybe Crash, Sonic, Zelda. I'd say Mario is comfortably bigger than all those properties though. EVERYONE has played a Mario game or multiple Mario games.

 

Literally everyone knows who Mario is and, again, there's never been a Mario movie that tries to emulate the Mario games like this one. With that, as mentioned, I don't think the next ones can go higher as I see this more like Jurassic World, Force Awakens and No Way Home as they each had novelty and depended enormously on nostalgia. Then the movies that followed while very, very big didn't quite match those 3 movies. This is gonna be like that to me.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Minions Rise of Gru did something like what... 2.6 off it's opening 5 days I think? It was a very well received movie. That's with summer days too... In the heart of summer days. So that's why I'm thinking something like 2.5 off the 5 day for Mario. Heck, Sonic 2 was pretty well received and did 2.6~ off its opening 3 days even. So, again, hoping otherwise but there could be some frontloading. But, all that said, I'm thinking 500M+ DOM is likely locked which is incredible.

[TwoMisfits]

9 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

If Mario does open $200M+ TGM and Avatar might be going down 

 

It has strong enough WOM for 3.5x Multi and no genre competition until June 

 

To get those enormous numbers, your movie has to be rewatchable and folks have to want to pay to rewatch (in time or money).  It seems like that will be the case for Mario, but let's let a few more days play out...

 

Says the person who picked this to win the year over 2 months ago...so, you know the way I think it will play out:)...

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

Would this opening weekend really mean an 80 million DOM total for Air?

 

No, TMobile deal is inflating this week, as is Spring Break.  I would wait to see 2nd weekend (and weekdays after the deal expires next Tuesday) before I'd put a total DOM on it...

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

These Endgame mentions are pretty ironic considering this Mario movie is behaving a lot like Endgame and suffocating everything around it, as evident by the nasty drops for John Wick 4 and Dungeons and Dragons. It also keeps growing exponentially, as its projected 5-day frame started at around $140M-$150M and has now shot up to as high as $210M. Just wow.

 

I think I remember telling Shawn on his original Mario projection when he left the "total" BO blank to just do it and put in $400M+...I think he eventually put in $300M+ at the time:)...

[KP1025]

15 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Minions Rise of Gru did something like what... 2.6 off it's opening 5 days I think? It was a very well received movie. That's with summer days too... In the heart of summer days. So that's why I'm thinking something like 2.5 off the 5 day for Mario. Heck, Sonic 2 was pretty well received and did 2.6~ off its opening 3 days even. So, again, hoping otherwise but there could be some frontloading. But, all that said, I'm thinking 500M+ DOM is likely locked which is incredible.

 

Incredibles 2 also did 2.6x off its first 5 days even with A+ Cinemascore and summer weekdays. Given the similar scale of their openings, I agree Mario might be looking at a multiplier somewhere in that ballpark. 

[Poseidon]

 

US Box Office with its system of not releasing admissions is actually pretty bad for movies like mario, as it's going to be compared to a movie like Avatar 2, but is actually so much bigger with the huge amount of discounted kids tickets and premium screens having a smaller impact. Also, it will probably play much better in rural places with lower ticket prices.

 

I would really love to see real admission comparisons. Thy will be absolutely huge for Mario. 

 

 

[grim22]

2 hours ago, spizzer said:

 

LOL what a fun summer that was.

 

Up

Hangover

ROTF

Bruno

Potter 6

The Proposal

District 9

Inglorious Basterds

 

 

 

[Jonwo]

11 hours ago, grey ghost said:

 

Interesting proposition. 🤔 

 

But I don't see Universal coming close to the same financial windfall as Disney. 

 

Disney had a ton of Marvel characters, a ton of successful Pixar franchises and a ton of animation classics to remake, then they had Star Wars too.

 

These movies dominated the top 20 worldwide.

 

Universal has Jurassic Park and Fast and Furious which are on a downward trajectory. And Minions along with Nintendo Cinematic Universe. But not much of this stuff is crossing 1 billion at this point.

 

TL;DR

 

Universal has long way to go to match peak Disney.

Universal really need to release a live action Shrek, that'd make a ton of money easily.

 

Disney despite the last few years is still a relatively strong company and anyone thinks they're 'dying' is foolish.

[spizzer]

4 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

 

 

I try to stop by anytime something CRAZY happens.

 

Also trying to help launch BO discussion in another community so I needed to come here for the Charlie & the Tracking Thread's insights. 😁

[VanillaSkies]

As expected, Mario is doing bonkers business for morning/afternoon shows at theatre around me. 100%+ increase from yesterday’s numbers is likely in the cards, which is just phenomenal. 
 

I had high expectations for this and it exceeded even those. Seeing this at 4:00pm this afternoon.

[Johnny Tran]

15 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

This is such a crybaby argument, audiences and critics disagreed forever since movies exist

 

People only liked reviews when they agreed with their own opinions, the second some critic dares to disagreed everyone gets mad because people think critics job is to validate their own thoughts, good or bad

 

Critics was WAY harder on movies before, it´s incredibly easy to get good scores right now because critics overall are more forgiving and because sites like RT brings a lot of people that is closer to influencers than actual critics 

 

And if nobody cares about their opinion than they wouldn´t be here anymore, instead fanboys are crying over this nonstop for days because clearly a lot of people wanted good reviews to validate their love for the movie and when they didn´t get it, the meltdowns started

 

 

 

The numbers say otherwise.  The audience scores say otherwise. Sometimes critics miss and that's okay.  Again, they are human beings with opinions and for whatever reason they didn't get this movie.  Every other metric out there says that they are the outliers. 

[John Marston]

 

[KP1025]

Minions 2 also hit digital after a month without much effect on its legs, so I think Mario will be just fine.

[CoolioD1]

puss in boots 2 was on VOD literally two weeks into its run. who cares.

[Jiffy]

Regardless of actual impact, it's just obnoxious as hell to be announcing digital release date before the opening weekend has even really started. What the hell is the incentive there?

[Morieris]

Even though they announced the date, that doesn't stop the parent annoyed that their kids won't stop badgering them to go see the movie this weekend instead of waiting from taking their kids.

 

It'll still be in theaters on May 9th, right? So they get a few coins from runoff from Vol 3.

[ThomasNicole]

Mario is really coming for that +200M OW so BOT was right afterall when everyone here said years ago a video game adaptation could do these type of numbers ... our only mistake is to think Pikachu could do it before those sexy mustaches 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

@charlie Jatinder is claiming $26.75M for Thursday on the Telegram group