THE LITTLE MERMAID WEEKEND THREAD

[Borobudur]

2 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

I don’t even know how Avatar 2 scenes are because I never even saw it lol. Waiting until it gets into Disney+.

Avatar 2 VFX made TLM feel like a stage play at kindergarten. The finest VFX can be put on big screen to-date. 

[jedijake]

7 minutes ago, M37 said:

Its not that sales petered out, but more that the expected casual audience, somewhat for walk-ups in metro areas but moreso attendance generally outside of them ... just didn't show up like they normally do for a release of this size. All of the extrapolation and forecasts were based on the typical ratios, and it sure seems like the mid and lower tier markets especially, the more casual Fri and Sat crowd generally, had a lot of expected/usual audience opt out of this release ... for "reasons"

It would be very interesting to see the regional percentages (northeast, southeast, midwest, etc.) compared to Aladdin's regional percentages.

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

Any chance we could actually see an increase today and tomorrow for TLM? I know it would be unprecedented, but I am just wondering if it could muster up enough to touch $100 million for the 3-day and over $125m for the 4-day.

 

Very, very doubtful, but nothing is impossible in box office.  

[TwoMisfits]

22 minutes ago, jedijake said:

But like I said, I have a hard time believing they will just leave it at $98 or $99 million for the weekend. Actuals may be higher than the estimates we've seen.

 

Or it's already elevated - Charlie said $29M Sat and Deadline has $30M, so Sat may already be buffed...

[titanic2187]

6 hours ago, Ryan Reynolds said:

Age of Ultron still biggest billion dollar flop

I thought TLK was also close in race? A2 almost join the league but legged it good enough to escape. 

[M37]

7 minutes ago, jedijake said:

It would be very interesting to see the regional percentages (northeast, southeast, midwest, etc.) compared to Aladdin's regional percentages.

You'd probably have to get more detailed than that, down to DMA (market) level. Its some combination of overperformance in larger metros, and lackluster numbers elsewhere. I suspect, without having seen the actual data, it would show something like +5-10% in the bigger (and more diverse) markets, but then dropping to like -20-40% as you go down the list. Overall, roughly a net -10% or so performance vs baseline expectations given the usual pre-sale/IM & Daily/DMA patterns

 

Said this in the tracking thread, but we actually saw something similar with Lightyear last year in terms of being skewed towards bigger metros, but that was chalked up more to it being a weird spin-off release and a Disney+ effect, and Strange World was kinda weak everywhere. But taking it all together it sure looks like Disney is seeing outside factors creep in and affect the domestic returns on family films (not as much for MCU), making them more metro heavy, some potential audience on "boycott"

 

Doesn't doesn't bode well for Mermaid's legs, or Elemental, both of which will depend on those typical, casual family viewers

[Torontofan]

30 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I thought TLK was also close in race? A2 almost join the league but legged it good enough to escape. 

Avatar 2 would have if it missed 2 billion

 

Lol

[Cooper Legion]

TLK made like 100-200M too much for the crown

[Willowra]

4 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Was using 2.5* production budget  rule .

Anyway  what percentage share of revenues does Disney get from Us theaters?

 

@charlie Jatinder maybe can give us info on this?

 

Os -china is 40%

China is 25%

 

US theatrical cut 50%, total 325-350M

Revenue- 162-175M

OS cut 40% China box office will be negligible, total 250-325M

Revenue- 100-130M

TV revenue- 150M

Home entertainment- 140M

Total revenue- 552-595M

 

Budget 250M, P&A 150M, other cost 150M. Total cost ~550M

 

Total profit- $2M-45M

[Day and Date The Best]

4 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

I don’t even know how Avatar 2 scenes are because I never even saw it lol. Waiting until it gets into Disney+.

Avatar 2 on PVOD was good. You are not the only one to not watch it on theaters. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Day and Date The Best

[Gavin Feng]

You don't have to compare TLM to Avatar 2. I mean just look at what Rob Marshall did on Pirates 4. Even that is far better than what TLM showed from trailer.

[Day and Date The Best]

Avatar 2 vfx were good, but people are exagerating like if no movie comes close. And there were scenes on avatar where they made fake things (like the range of visibility on water is not that far). Wakanda Forever was more realistic on deep water, but as people like shiny.

Edited May 28, 2023 by Day and Date The Best

[thajdikt]

3 minutes ago, Day and Date The Best said:

Avatar 2 vfx were good, but people are exagerating like if no movie comes close. And there were scenes on avatar where they made fake things (like the range of visibility on water is not that far). Wakanda Forever was more realistic on deep water, but as people like shiny.

WF used Avatar 2 tech tho

[Flopped]

haven't seen TLM yet but everything I've seen feels like they're scrambling to (thoughtlessly) justify the movie's existence 

 

for ex they released the Under the Sea clip. in the original, Ariel is unamused then bored and swims away half way through the song. makes sense - she's not into it! here Ariel is there for the whole song singing along with Sebastian and having the time of her life. WTF? they miss the fundamental point of the song/movie? 

 

I do think these factors affect the box office (in addition to racism against a black mermaid) 

[Day and Date The Best]

7 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

WF used Avatar 2 tech tho

All Vfx heavy films use simmilar tech, thats why you have Marvel films like Guardians 3 and Avengers Endgame with tons of vfx houses and looking consistent. Wakanda Forever and Avatar 2 have Weta FX in common but also does Eternals, Guardians Of the Galaxy Vol 3, Gozilla vs Kong. All those movies came out during and After Production of Avatar 2 so basically they all use the same tech if according to your argument. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by Day and Date The Best

[JustLurking]

15 minutes ago, Day and Date The Best said:

Avatar 2 vfx were good, but people are exagerating like if no movie comes close. And there were scenes on avatar where they made fake things (like the range of visibility on water is not that far). Wakanda Forever was more realistic on deep water, but as people like shiny.

Not a chance.

[Day and Date The Best]

Halle is talented, TLM could probably underperform, She should take it as an opportunity that people will minimum say she sings good (even haters) and should have a Chloe x Halle album ready to go and bank on that. 

[ZattMurdock]

22 minutes ago, Day and Date The Best said:

Avatar 2 on PVOD was good. You are not the only one to not watch it on theaters. 

I know. Literally no one of my friends did either. I bet that it’s a great film, I just didn’t have the rush to see it in theaters, just like John Wick 4 and several other films.

[ZattMurdock]

1 minute ago, Day and Date The Best said:

Halle is talented, TLM could probably underperform, She should take it as an opportunity that people will minimum say she sings good (even haters) and should have a Chloe x Halle album ready to go and bank on that. 

I want her in the MCU already. Get her in the X-Men.

[Day and Date The Best]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Not a chance.

Yes a chance, we are talking about soecifics on water rendering, not the whole movie. Wakanda Forever is DEEP WATER Avatar is clear more surface water but there is a shot with Prayakan where they cheated and possibly others more. Avatar team even said they cheated water visibility to make it more appealing.