Weekdays Thread (6/5-8)

[M37]

30 minutes ago, Bobzaruni said:

Isn't 400M+ the more likely outcome right now, atleast given how the data is tracking so far? Or are you waiting for Wed numbers to see if it was spillover?

The problem is that ATSV needs slightly better legs than GOTG3, and just doesn't have the runway in the first couple of weeks that film did to rack up BO$. If by Flash week we see a roughly $32M+ weekend (like -55% & -41%) and $47M+ week, then it needs to be hitting around -30% weekly from then on to trek a path to $400M. The OW was very concentrated in bigger markets (opposite of TGM interestingly) and its unclear how much the WOM is going to move people off the fence in the mid and lower tier markets

 

Either need to have it hold better than that rough estimate over the next two weeks, or post those -30% drops to put $400M in play. So until I see one or the other [or both!], can only be cautiously optimistic about $400M+, not declare it likely. For now, have it more in the ~$380M range, but absolutely with room to grow higher

 

EDIT: let's see how close to $300M ATSV can get by Sun 6/18 or Thu 6/22, then project from there

Edited June 7, 2023 by M37

[Legion Again]

I am on -50 into -37 for low 400s fwiw

[M37]

Just thinking out loud ...

 

What is the next film that will reach $250M domestic? Flash is looking like a longer shot, Indy 5 sales are just weak, MI7 would have to overpreform previous films, Barbie is a wild card, and then we're into Aug/Sept/Oct where there is just a lower ceiling on totals due to school weekdays & football, before Dune 2 and Marvels in November.

 

Last year we went from Thor L&T on 7/08 until BPWF on 11/11 between that threshold. Gotta think something has to pop in that time frame, mostly likely MI7 or Barbie, but not guaranteed

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just thinking out loud ...

 

What is the next film that will reach $250M domestic? Flash is looking like a longer shot, Indy 5 sales are just weak, MI7 would have to overpreform previous films, Barbie is a wild card, and then we're into Aug/Sept/Oct where there is just a lower ceiling on totals due to school weekdays & football, before Dune 2 and Marvels in November.

 

Last year we went from Thor L&T on 7/08 until BPWF on 11/11 between that threshold. Gotta think something has to pop in that time frame, mostly likely MI7 or Barbie, but not guaranteed

I still expect Flash to do it. After that, given the tracking for Indy 5, Dead Reckoning could do it. Fallout did 220M DOM so it doesn't have to overperform it by a ton to get to 250M+ DOM.

[M37]

10 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I still expect Flash to do it. After that, given the tracking for Indy 5, Dead Reckoning could do it. Fallout did 220M DOM so it doesn't have to overperform it by a ton to get to 250M+ DOM.

I do not see Flash getting there; A $75M OW and GOTG3 legs barely reaches $250M, and don't think the WOM will be as strong, nor being a finale after 2 previous films building up good will

 

MI7 seems like the safest bet, but even a JW3-->JW4 increase (again with a finale effect) doesn't quite get it there, but I suppose a TGM afterglow effect could be enough of a boost

Edited June 7, 2023 by M37

[Liiviig 1998]

22 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just thinking out loud ...

 

What is the next film that will reach $250M domestic? Flash is looking like a longer shot, Indy 5 sales are just weak, MI7 would have to overpreform previous films, Barbie is a wild card, and then we're into Aug/Sept/Oct where there is just a lower ceiling on totals due to school weekdays & football, before Dune 2 and Marvels in November.

 

Last year we went from Thor L&T on 7/08 until BPWF on 11/11 between that threshold. Gotta think something has to pop in that time frame, mostly likely MI7 or Barbie, but not guaranteed

MI7 looks good for 250M+.

Flash and Indy 220M+

Barbie is a wild card I agree

 

Marvels n Aquaman obviously.

 

Dune possibly.

Snakes n songbirds -200M+

Wonka ?

 

[jedijake]

I'm not so sure, actually, about The Marvels hitting $250 million. I'd say Aquaman has a much better shot because of the holiday release. But as we've seen, early November releases don't get spectacular multipliers.

[Valonqar]

14 minutes ago, jedijake said:

I'm not so sure, actually, about The Marvels hitting $250 million. I'd say Aquaman has a much better shot because of the holiday release. But as we've seen, early November releases don't get spectacular multipliers.

 

Marvels is not going to drop below 250M after 430M or so dom for the first movie. It's going to drop but not that big. probably will crack 300M+ thanks to holidays. 

[upriser7]

1 minute ago, Valonqar said:

 

Marvels is not going to drop below 250M after 430M or so dom for the first movie. It's going to drop but not that big. probably will crack 300M+ thanks to holidays. 

It probably could be due to the name of the movie but I think there are decent number of casuals who don't know that Marvels is sequel to Captain Marvel.

[Killimano3]

8 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

It probably could be due to the name of the movie but I think there are decent number of casuals who don't know that Marvels is sequel to Captain Marvel.

 

I highly doubt that there's such a significant amount of people out there who don't realize it's a Captain Marvel sequel that it's going to make barely half of it's predecessor. There have been movies with far more confusing sequel names that have seen no effect, and people pay attention to Marvel flims. Not to mention the trailers have been everywhere. If it drops it's not gonna be because people didn't realize it was a Captain Marvel sequel

[Flopped]

because it's now Summer, can we expect more muted Thursday to Friday % jumps? 

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited June 7, 2023 by kayumanggi

[Willowra]

Someone was asking about Spider-Man, Batman & Superman's global licensed merchandise sales of 2016-2018. Here is the data and source link.

 

2016- Spider-Man $1.55B, Batman $1.1B, Superman $812M, Avengers $1.24B

 

2017- SM- $1.4B, Batman $1B, Superman 722M, Avengers $1.2B

 

2018- SM- $1.07B, Batman $839, Superman $634M, Avengers $1.8B

 

source link

https://www.resetera.com/threads/disney-dominates-top-10-licensed-merchandise-in-2018-sm-loses-number-1-spot-for-licensed-super-hero-merchandise.158436/

 

[stripe]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Just thinking out loud ...

 

What is the next film that will reach $250M domestic? Flash is looking like a longer shot, Indy 5 sales are just weak, MI7 would have to overpreform previous films, Barbie is a wild card, and then we're into Aug/Sept/Oct where there is just a lower ceiling on totals due to school weekdays & football, before Dune 2 and Marvels in November.

 

Last year we went from Thor L&T on 7/08 until BPWF on 11/11 between that threshold. Gotta think something has to pop in that time frame, mostly likely MI7 or Barbie, but not guaranteed

 

 

I would be really surprised if Indy 5 and MI7 don't reach 250M+

I agree that Flash is a longshot at this moment. 

Cant see Barbie over 250M. What about Haunted Mansion?

[M37]

1 minute ago, stripe said:

 

 

I would be really surprised if Indy 5 and MI7 don't reach 250M+

I agree that Flash is a longshot at this moment. 

Cant see Barbie over 250M. What about Haunted Mansion?

I’m sticking to my theory that it’s very difficult for a film to hit just the right mark to finish between $230-$340M, and I don’t think Indy or MI7 is poised to slide into that gap (less sure about the latter)

 

Haunted Mansion I have closer to Super Pets level, lower $100Ms at best 

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I still expect Flash to do it. After that, given the tracking for Indy 5, Dead Reckoning could do it. Fallout did 220M DOM so it doesn't have to overperform it by a ton to get to 250M+ DOM.

That seems like a tall order unless ticket sales reaaaallly turn around for Flash

[screambaby]

29 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

 

I would be really surprised if Indy 5 and MI7 don't reach 250M+

I agree that Flash is a longshot at this moment. 

Cant see Barbie over 250M. What about Haunted Mansion?

If indy 5 makes 250 domestic after the disaster so far I'd be ecstatic

[von Kenni]

36 minutes ago, Willowra said:

Someone was asking about Spider-Man, Batman & Superman's global licensed merchandise sales of 2016-2018. Here is the data and source link.

 

2016- Spider-Man $1.55B, Batman $1.1B, Superman $812M, Avengers $1.24B

 

2017- SM- $1.4B, Batman $1B, Superman 722M, Avengers $1.2B

 

2018- SM- $1.07B, Batman $839, Superman $634M, Avengers $1.8B

 

source link

https://www.resetera.com/threads/disney-dominates-top-10-licensed-merchandise-in-2018-sm-loses-number-1-spot-for-licensed-super-hero-merchandise.158436/

 

 

Thanks, guilty as charged. These are meaningful numbers and more interesting stuff behind the link. 10% might be a good estimate when calculating right holders' licensing fees. Disney is said to have some items at some point even with 25% premium. It's a nice annual addition to have $100m ballpark "extra" revenue from the IPs.

[WorkingonaName]

Flash, Barbie and Mi should fly over $250M.

 

I think Indy 5 might still crawl over but not particularly likely.   

[Dephira]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

Just thinking out loud ...

 

What is the next film that will reach $250M domestic? Flash is looking like a longer shot, Indy 5 sales are just weak, MI7 would have to overpreform previous films, Barbie is a wild card, and then we're into Aug/Sept/Oct where there is just a lower ceiling on totals due to school weekdays & football, before Dune 2 and Marvels in November.

 

Last year we went from Thor L&T on 7/08 until BPWF on 11/11 between that threshold. Gotta think something has to pop in that time frame, mostly likely MI7 or Barbie, but not guaranteed

Mission impossible would need a 13% bump over the last one, I think it will likely get there with the Top Gun bonus and great reception of the past movies. I don’t see it for any of the others you mentioned. 250 would be absolutely insane for Barbie, imo. The Lego Movie barely got there. 
 

With the Ow projection for Flash at 65-85m, I don’t see how it gets to 250m based on that, considering the decent but not great reviews, and the fact that no one knows what will happen with the DCEU afterwards, so not much urgency to watch it. 
 

Indy 5 seems dead in the water honestly, but maybe I’m just being a reactionary after the reviews. It’s tough for adult oriented fare in this market, and I don’t see many people under the age of, let’s say 40, being super interested in it. 

Edited June 7, 2023 by Dephira