Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

[TwoMisfits]

44 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Yeah, not much about this movie's trajectory went as most expected. Presale tracking (my own included) was too bearish for weeks, traditional industry tracking was (likely) too high... let's see how true Friday turns out and get better perspective.

 

I dunno - the $49.5M weekend is still highly in the realm of the possible, pending how today and tomorrow go...that could be dead on for a prediction...

Edited June 9, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Cooper Legion]

8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

The thing that people don’t consider when proclaiming “theaters are dead” because a movie is a flop because of its budget (say, Fast X makes a lot of money, but not enough for its 340M budget therefore movie theaters are dead, or same for transformers at 200M) is that the budget doesn’t matter to the movie theater. All that matters are raw numbers.

 

For a movie theater, a 340M blockbuster that “flopped” because it only made 100M domestic is still a bigger hit than an indie sleeper that made 45M domestic on a 2M budget. 
 

So something like this Transformers overperformance is nothing less than fantastic for movie theaters.

It matters to the theaters when studios don’t make a sequel though. I agree with the narrow point but money loser 100Ms are in that “give a man a fish he’ll be fed for a day” zone.

[DAJK]

1 minute ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

It matters to the theaters when studios don’t make a sequel though. I agree with the narrow point but money loser 100Ms are in that “give a man a fish he’ll be fed for a day” zone.

Yes, but whether the studio does a sequel or not is irrelevant. Hollywood will always put out movies, and theaters don’t really care what those movies are as long as there’s new output. And there’s always new output.

 

And honestly, stuff like Fast X/Transformers are the movies that theaters like. People who come to those movies buy lots of food. People who comes to A24 sleeper hits don’t.

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Yes, but whether the studio does a sequel or not is irrelevant. Hollywood will always put out movies, and theaters don’t really care what those movies are as long as there’s new output. And there’s always new output.

 

And honestly, stuff like Fast X/Transformers are the movies that theaters like. People who come to those movies buy lots of food. People who comes to A24 sleeper hits don’t.

Hmm, not sure about that first paragraph. I would think that when studios are seeing good returns on their money they put more $$ into production and when things have been going poorly they scale down? Maybe it really is fairly inelastic though, new execs also chasing some new dubious potential hits

Edited June 9, 2023 by Into the Legion-Verse

[Shawn Robbins]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I dunno - the $49.5M weekend is still highly in the realm of the possible, pending how today and tomorrow go...that could be dead on for a prediction...

That's my mistake, I was being too general and just meant to refer to how pre-sales looked a few weeks ago when high 30s-mid-40s looked like the best case scenario. But you're right, it's too early to back off the upper 40s-low 50s target from the past week.

[Mango]

26 minutes ago, Flopped said:

I'm laughing at even Thursdays being "True Thursday" now. 

#bringbackmidnightscreenings

[Starphanluke]

Maybe I'm getting too caught up in the hype juice, but I have a feeling the IM will be solid for Transformers. I have a hard time seeing it being worse than Fast X.

[Cap]

3 hours ago, AJG said:

 

Stuff like this is why I we should really stop worrying when a movie flops. We don't know if the films we call successes even made a profit.

And even if they are “successful” Hollywood doesn’t want to show a profit. Which is Rogers’ point 

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Starphanluke said:

Maybe I'm getting too caught up in the hype juice, but I have a feeling the IM will be solid for Transformers. I have a hard time seeing it being worse than Fast X.

 

Almost full summer day (all colleges and about 75-80% of K-12 out) with East Coast air advisories up and down the coast for outdoor activities vs

Not a full summer day (few colleges and no K-12 out) with no air advisories...

 

It could easily be worse b/c of timing and circumstances of both opens...and it could easily be better....and it could be the same.

 

Aka - waiting for some Friday results is probably a good idea to see which way this goes...it could go anywhere.

 

 

[Eric Prime]

12 minutes ago, Into the Legion-Verse said:

Hmm, not sure about that first paragraph. I would think that when studios are seeing good returns on their money they put more $$ into production and when things have been going poorly they scale down? Maybe it really is fairly inelastic though, new execs also chasing some new dubious potential hits

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood earned bigger box office than Dark Phoenix, Terminator Dark Fate, Pacific Rim 2, only slightly less than Godzilla: King of the Monsters and Solo, at far lower costs than all those nostalgic toy commercials. But funny enough, 95% of the movies that the studios put out are nostalgic toy commercials that cost a fortune to produce and advertise, while movies like OUATIH are on their last legs.

 

We could see Heaven's Gate-style bomb after bomb with these nostalgic toy commercials and these studios will still pump out $250 million for an ALF reboot. There's no scaling down whatsoever.

[ringedmortality]

3 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood earned bigger box office than Dark Phoenix, Terminator Dark Fate, Pacific Rim 2, only slightly less than Godzilla: King of the Monsters and Solo, at far lower costs than all those nostalgic toy commercials. But funny enough, 95% of the movies that the studios put out are nostalgic toy commercials that cost a fortune to produce and advertise, while movies like OUATIH are on their last legs.

 

Well there's a lot of toy properties, there's only one Tarantino

[Eric Prime]

10 minutes ago, Cap said:

And even if they are “successful” Hollywood doesn’t want to show a profit. Which is Rogers’ point 

My favorite (and by "favorite", I mean "I hate it") case of Hollywood accounting is how My Big Fat Greek Wedding, one of the most successful indie movies ever, inexplicably lost $20 million, all so Nia Vardalos and her team couldn't be given the proper rewards for what was her movie about her life story. It's just despicable.

[WorkingonaName]

Box office theory drinking game.

 

Step 1: Take a shot every time someone brings up "Nostalgic toy commercial" 

 

Step 2:  Get your stomach pumped.

[wildphantom]

6 minutes ago, Eric Prime said:

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood earned bigger box office than Dark Phoenix, Terminator Dark Fate, Pacific Rim 2, only slightly less than Godzilla: King of the Monsters and Solo, at far lower costs than all those nostalgic toy commercials. But funny enough, 95% of the movies that the studios put out are nostalgic toy commercials that cost a fortune to produce and advertise, while movies like OUATIH are on their last legs.

 

We could see Heaven's Gate-style bomb after bomb with these nostalgic toy commercials and these studios will still pump out $250 million for an ALF reboot. There's no scaling down whatsoever.

I loved ALF!

[TMP]

1 minute ago, WorkingonaName said:

Box office theory drinking game.

 

Step 1: Take a shot every time someone brings up "Nostalgic toy commercial" 

 

Step 2:  Get your stomach pumped.

I feel like this is the first time it's even been used in the correct context lmao

[ringedmortality]

2 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Box office theory drinking game.

 

Step 1: Take a shot every time someone brings up "Nostalgic toy commercial" 

 

Step 2:  Get your stomach pumped.

 

How many people actually use that phrase though

[Krissykins]

Updated budget from Deadline for Transformers: $195m. 
 

Looks like a stronger than expected domestic opening for sure. 

[Eric Prime]

7 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

I loved ALF!

Do you like to eat cats?

[wildphantom]

Puerto Rico will get this over Spider-Man this weekend. Just you wait.

 

Never forget 2014!

[WorkingonaName]

Everybody gangsta til the Guam numbers come in.