Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

[KP1025]

20 minutes ago, Mulder said:

Love how many people will make wild box office guesses and not fess up to being wrong.

 

"The Little Mermaid will be another Solo and drop 65%"-Said during its near-100 million OW, its passed Solo both Domestically and Worldwide this weekend, also hasn't been acknowledged as wrong. Amazing.

 

I remember that one because it was so amusingly pessimistic and borderline impossible as you said. TLM is already past the floor of their DOM prediction and almost past the ceiling of their WW prediction after only 2 weeks.

 

Quote

Yeah, I see another Solo A Star Wars Story kind of trajectory for TLM. I kown its weird to compare this movie to Star Wars but both are Disney movies opening on memorial day weekend.

 

220-260 Dom; 130-160 OS; 350-420 WW Total.

 

Probably a decent Memorial OW, but the second weekend Spiderverse is going after the same family audience and will take away many PLF screens from TLM, witch will cause a 60 to 65 percent drop. International numbers looks really bad.

 

[Mulder]

2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

I remember that one because it was so amusingly pessimistic and borderline impossible as you said. TLM is already past the floor of their DOM prediction and almost past the ceiling of their WW prediction after only 2 weeks.

 

 

What's incredible too is how hard they tried to justify this. Like they could not comprehend why it was an asinine prediction to make.

[Spidey Freak]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

Love how many people will make wild box office guesses and not fess up to being wrong.

 

There have always been people on here who just troll and try to manifest terrible numbers for movies they hate. They can't fess up to terribly wrong predictions because they need people to forget, so that they can continue with their shtick for new films.

[stripe]

13 hours ago, CJohn said:

3 movies below 1M in the top 10. There is a massive problem with depth going on right now. Dramas and comedies not connecting at all is very concerning. Air only did a measly 50M. A Man Called Otto struggled to hit 60M. No Hard Feelings will be lucky to do the same.

 

That's my only concerning regarding BO, the lack of middle ground hits. Air and A Man Called Otto at least did fine. But what happened to praised and loved films such as Are you there God or The Covenant? Both would have done more than double their gross in normal times.

Even Book Club 2, Plane, Renfield, About My Father, Sisu, Magic Mike would have had decent runs.

[JohnnyGossamer]

Did we get any revised Sunday numbers? Or, are the studio estimates likely on point?

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Did we get any revised Sunday numbers? Or, are the studio estimates likely on point?

too early in the day for that...

[JWR]

Very curious to see if No Hard Feelings and Joy Ride will continue the trend of mid budget movies not doing so well.

[TwoMisfits]

Man, fessing up to rights and wrongs...

 

Let's see - for DOM, I felt strongly that Mario would win the year (maybe right) and Spidey would win the summer (maybe right).  So, 2 big guesses, against board, and maybe both right...but maybe not...

 

I was all over the place with GOTG 3 - 1st thinking it would get to $400M in Feb, then thinking sub $300M after Ant Man and the scandals and sub Top 5 WW (B/c I know nothing about INT numbers except they like cars and monsters:), but then seeing how good everyone thought it was after OW and enjoying the ride, but still being surprised with over $350M.  I guess if I averaged my initial gut and my following scandals gut and realized it was gonna be way more audience friendly than the trailers, I'd have nailed it:)...of course, I have the right positions in the clubs, b/c those clubs were SKY HIGH:).

 

Mermaid I had in the $200-$300M DOM zone - that's still in the TBD right/wrong zone, but looking like it might definitely get over, so I'll be wrong when it does, which it should right now, I think, as long as Disney protects it with their Elementals open (which they should)...of course, I think I'm right in all my club positions b/c some folks were also SKY HIGH on that movie:)...

 

I didn't care about Fast X or Transformers, but both of those were always in my under $300M club, and if forced to choose, probably under $200M club...so indifference was okay right there.  But I have fun predicting supers and animated b/c they are in my wheelhouse, and these are not:)...

 

And speaking of non-wheelhouse movies, I'm already backing off my intitial thoughts on Oppenheimer and doing a GOTG 3 - what I once thought was a low $100s DOM movie, now I think will challenge and possible exceed $200M DOM...ahhh, trying to predict 40+ Caucasian males this summer is gonna be an art...this will probably also, like GOTG 3, end up as an average of my 2 thoughts, but where's the fun in that:)...

 

Edit to Add: And I've had Flash and Indy in my under $300M DOM zone forever - so, I'll be really right or really wrong on those 2 in the next few weeks.  

Edited June 12, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Boxx93]

4 hours ago, Mulder said:

What's incredible too is how hard they tried to justify this. Like they could not comprehend why it was an asinine prediction to make.

 

I make predictions that sometimes turn out to be wrong or sometimes turn out to be right, just like everybody else in this forum. Yes, I was wrong about TLM and I also made a wild guess about Spiderverse 2 finishing with 900 million WW, witch is not gonna happen because of how frontloaded the first weekend was. I made those Mermaid prediction because of how shockingly low the worldwide opening prediction was according to Deadline Hollywood. That doesnt make me a troll or a hater, no need to be overly defensive about it. I dont make fun of people who tough TLM was gonna be another Billion dollar either because there was a precedent with the other renaissance  remakes that at the time made sense. Some time you just swing and you miss.

 

But lets not pretend as if this is a major victory for Disney. They where clearly expecting more from this movie given the huge budget it was given and it looks like it will just "break even" at best. Studios dont make movies just to break even, they want to make huge profits in the theatres, not with variables.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Boxx93

[ringedmortality]

50 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

And speaking of non-wheelhouse movies, I'm already backing off my intitial thoughts on Oppenheimer

 

You were also bearish on Elvis, do you not like biopics specifically or just dramas

[filmscholar]

Well I'm not one to give "Excuses" or "Spin" per say.  But I believe "Transformers 7" walked away with a  Moral Victory this weekend.  Yes I wanted 70 Million but 60 Million with Spidey on it's heels and even "TLM" still generating isn't as bad.  Also some of that Early Tracking was looking really horrible.   Not to mention "Fast X" is still there which matches demos.   I think "Transformers" did pretty good all things considered.  It's Global Total wasn't that bad either.   Yes normally a "Transformers" Movie doing this type OW isn't the greatest sign but it was like a "Destroy and Rebuild" Situation. 

 

After "TLK" they went back to the drawing board.  I think this shows "Bumblebee" had some good will from General Audiences.   They gave this one a shot.   "Spidey" had a good hold considering "Transformers' ate into it's 2nd weekend.   Both films have very similar demos.   Overall I'm very pleased with this weekend because this was a lot of Blockbusters vying for space and Audiences found what they were looking for.   So "Transformers" got 170 WW OW, let's see where it can land.   "Spidey" looks to be one of the Tops Domestically this year for sure.   

'

As for the Holdovers.   "Fast X" clearly didn't have the biggest domestic total but Worldwide really did save it overall.  600 Million is still a strong result.  The problem was always the budget, reign that in and they should do better on the next two films especially with The Rock coming back.    "TLM" is holding pretty well all things considered.   Looks like Guardians is headed to just about where "Vol. 2" Landed WW.  Where it started, that's not a bad result.   I don't know when another Comic Book Film will see a Billion again, we'll have to see.  Obviously Spidey or an Avengers Film will have that type of hype.   We've had some close ones recently but 800 Million seems to be the new Ceiling.  Again, I liked this weekend.   As for "Flash", I've heard all the pros and cons, After this weekend I think the jury is still out on what it's going to do.  We'll see.   

Edited June 12, 2023 by filmscholar

[MysteryMovieMogul]

51 minutes ago, Boxx93 said:

 

I make predictions that sometimes turn out to be wrong or sometimes turn out to be right, just like everybody else in this forum. Yes, I was wrong about TLM and I also made a wild guess about Spiderverse 2 finishing with 900 million WW, witch is not gonna happen because of how frontloaded the first weekend was. I made those Mermaid prediction because of how shockingly low the worldwide opening prediction was according to Deadline Hollywood. That doesnt make me a troll or a hater, no need to be overly defensive about it. I dont make fun of people who tough TLM was gonna be another Billion dollar either because there was a precedent with the other renaissance  remakes that at the time made sense. Some time you just swing and you miss.

 

But lets not pretend as if this is a major victory for Disney. They where clearly expecting more from this movie given the huge budget it was given and it looks like it will just "break even" at best. Studios dont make movies just to break even, they want to make huge profits in the theatres, not with variables.

 

Who's pretending this is a major victory for Disney? I'll admit, you had me in the first half, but if you want to talk breaking even, lets talk about Fast X, Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret, Renfield, etc. There are a ton of films that just won't break even, or if they do, it'll be just barely. 

[TwoMisfits]

24 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

 

You were also bearish on Elvis, do you not like biopics specifically or just dramas

 

I don't really do music biopics, either...predicting what 55+ Caucasian adults (combined with under 25s, which tend to be the 2 markets who join for these) will like is even further than 40+ Caucasians males...

 

I mean, some music movies go huge (Elvis) and some don't (Whitney's this Xmas), and figuring out why is not my wheelhouse...I was never the MTV watcher or biggest music fan...

[grey ghost]

9 hours ago, DTP said:

I'm surprised Madagascar hasn't gotten a proper sequel in over a decade.  I liked those movies.

 

Isn't the hippo Jada Pinket and the zebra Chris Rock? 

[WorkingonaName]

Live-action remake it is then.

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Isn't the hippo Jada Pinket and the zebra Chris Rock? 

Are you calling Will Smith's wife FAT? Shiiiit... watch out man.

[robertman2]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Isn't the hippo Jada Pinket and the zebra Chris Rock? 

Perfect time for a sequel!

[stripe]

"break even", the new popular argument to dismiss a BO run. As Gopher posted yesterday, no matter if we don't know about budget, returns, marketing, VOD, etc.

 

In my radar, a remake movie that opens above 100M in MD (5th biggest MD) and finishes around 300M DOM is a success story. It could have grossed zero dollars OS and it would still be a success story.

[WorkingonaName]

I don't think Disney exces think of it that way. 

[Boxx93]

25 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

 

Who's pretending this is a major victory for Disney? I'll admit, you had me in the first half, but if you want to talk breaking even, lets talk about Fast X, Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret, Renfield, etc. There are a ton of films that just won't break even, or if they do, it'll be just barely. 

Yes, Universal really went overboard with that budget. 340 million is simply too much, even for the Fast franchise.

 

About the other movies, I didn't even knew that Margaret movie existed until it opened and Renfield I didn't really cared about. But those are low budgeted movies, they dont do much damage if they loss money (unless you're Amsterdam or Babylon). Its the big tentpole ones like Fast X, Shazam 2, Dungeons and Dragons, and pretty much all Disney movies that do damage their wallets when they fail. This industry needs to be more fiscally responsable for the sake of the studios themselves and their audience. The more the budgets in general rises, the more movie tickets tend to rise to cover their losses.

 

Thank god we have movies like Mario and John Wick 4 and pretty much any Blumhouse movie to buck that trend.

Edited June 12, 2023 by Boxx93