Weekday numbers July 10-13

[The GOAT]

47 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I will not hear a bad word about MSG, it is King of Flavour haiyaa

Got a sore throat just reading this

[Liiviig 1998]

32 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

Break even point theatrically for DR is around what? Roughly $900M?

2.5* 290. It releasing in china and it's OS heavy.

[SchumacherFTW]

1 minute ago, The GOAT said:

Got a sore throat just reading this

[baumer]

4 hours ago, across the Jat verse said:

8.5

4.1

2.5

2.2

 

Any new updates? Are we still going with four for sound of freedom and 17 for mission Impossible?

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, TomThomas said:

If Mission bombs and Oppenheimer underperforms, but Barbie does something like 180 mln opening weekend in US alone, audiences have zero right to complain about Hollywood making garbage or use high ticket price excuse to ignore good stuff, you get exactly what you pay for, it's as simple as that.

 

Barbie opening with 180M while MI and Oppenheimer underperform (relative to insane fandom expectations) is ignoring good stuff for absolutely brilliant stuff.  Post covid audience comes in droves for movies that are special not just for anything including just good.  So that's that. 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Valonqar

[TomThomas]

8 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

Barbie opening with 180M while MI and Oppenheimer underperform (relative to insane fandom expectations) is ignoring good stuff for absolutely brilliant stuff.  Post covid audience comes in droves for movies that are special not just for anything including just good.  So that's that. 

I hope you are trolling, mate (but I see your avatar)

[ThomasNicole]

The #ElementalSweep finally appeared on social media and people is shocked  

 

How they’ll react when this ended up outgrossing The Flash, Indiana Jones and maybe even Transformers worldwide 

 

 

Edited July 13, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

I hope you are trolling, mate (but I see your avatar)

I'm not. You trashed Barbie as if you saw it which you didn't so I'm hitting the ball back.

[lab276]

I want every movie to be good and do well. I take no pleasure in bombs.

[Nero]

18 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

So Gitesh is @Shawns alt confirmed? It can't be a coincidence that both of them talked with paramount right 👀

[Eric is Quiet]

45 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

The #ElementalSweep finally appeared on social media and people is shocked  

 

How they’ll react when this ended up outgrossing The Flash, Indiana Jones and maybe even Transformers worldwide 

 

 

I mean it’s not wrong, but comparing 250M to 1.45B is kind of funny.

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, Eric Stickell said:

I mean it’s not wrong, but comparing 250M to 1.45B is kind of funny.

the Pandemic... and Disney Plus.

Really shifted perspectives.

[JimmyB]

Every few months we have a movie that covers up the box office warts.....TGM, Avatar 2, Mario and soon Barbie.

 

March 2023 had opening weekends of 30 million plus that made headlines but the total gross was $638 million. $638 million is 2009 numbers. The summer box office is down 200 million plus vs 2022 if Box Office Mojo is correct. Barbie is going to cover the summer warts. The summer movie season should be packed with new releases so I don't buy the to many movies excuse.

 

I don't want to be doom and gloom but the pattern seems to be happening.  It takes a lot to get people to the theater. What's the 30th highest grossing movie this year vs 2018 or 2019?  The box office is being saved every few months by movies entering the top 20 highest grossing Domestic movies of all time.

 

The tracking tread has ATP. The ATP is is what 25% higher vs just 3 1/2 years ago? Yet, revenue is still down 25% from 3 1/2 years ago. I'm going to assume movie theater expenses are at least 25% higher. 

 

I don't have a solution to fix the problem but maybe this is just the new reality.

 

 

[MCKillswitch123]

I posted this in the Telegram chat. I don't know how truly informative it is, since it extrapolates from historically poor comparisons, but this is the closest I can find.

So the closest comparisons I was able to look up for a big post-July 4th 5-day opening weekend are Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix, and Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince. Which, well, are completely inept comparisons, because 1) Harry Potter is a historically frontloaded franchise, and 2) these were midnight numbers in 2007 and 2009 respectively, long before the mid-day inflation-adjusted preview numbers of 2023.

 

Having said that, if we were to look at the Internal Multipliers of these two films - well, Half-Blood Prince seems INSANELY unlikely to follow, since it had a 7.12 IM from Wed-to-Sun, opening to 22.2m midnights and a 158m 5-day, which would be a 49.84m 5-day for MI7. This is, as I said, extremely unlikely lol.

 

Order of the Phoenix has a more sensible 11.64 IM, so:

MI7 with Order of the Phoenix's 5-day 11.64 IM - 7x11.64 = 81.48m OW (discarding 2.5m from EA) - outtracking Fallout's first Fri-to-Tue by 5.1%

 

Assuming that a 11.64 IM is too high and opting for the halfway point between OotP and HBP, a 9.38 IM:

7x9.38 = 65.66m OW (discarding 2.5m from EA) - undertracking Fallout's first 5 days by -15,3%

 

This would be a disappointing number, yes. So I would like to invite conversation and ask the bigger numbers experts which one is likelier to be followed lol. But I do think that. with the historic of the MI franchise, OotP number is likelier even than the halfway point.

[TwoMisfits]

7 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

bruh insidious has come out a full 3 weeks before Barbie/Oppenheimer and the expectations for a horror sequel that aims very young which will make like 65% of total during the opening weekend are much different

 

Sound of Freedom... the majority of people who see this hardly go to the movies. They're right-leaning and conservative and white. I don't really think they're interested in Barbie or Oppenheimer. Or Mission Impossible.

 

That has been a portion of the MI series audience, though...so, it definitely is affecting MI7...and as I said previously, it's probably gonna effect Oppy, but to a lesser extent b/c SoF will have had its "blow up b/c of WOM" this week, so MI7 takes it in full.

 

SoF's breakout will also kill a LOT of holdovers' late legs b/c it's now becoming the 4th movie that needs to be held Oppy weekend, and tons of theaters are only SO big.  Even this week, I mentioned my locals expanding SoF from 1 to 2 screens (when originally, you had to think the plan 2 weeks ago was zero) and dropping 5 and 6 films each, THIS week, before Barbie/Oppy next week...

Edited July 13, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Jonwo]

2 hours ago, The Dark Alfred said:

Yea let's put the Doomsday clock to one minute to midnight after day one of the most backloaded franchise in Hollywood. Let's see where we stand come Sunday.

Honesty people on here are so hyperbolic, you'd think the next film was in danger of being cancelled with how some on here go here go on! 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

The #ElementalSweep finally appeared on social media and people is shocked  

 

How they’ll react when this ended up outgrossing The Flash, Indiana Jones and maybe even Transformers worldwide 

 

 

Alot of doom and gloom takes about Elemental and Pixar already look well outdated as Elemental will eventually land above $400M

[ThomasNicole]

22 minutes ago, Eric Stickell said:

I mean it’s not wrong, but comparing 250M to 1.45B is kind of funny.

Definitely but i can’t judge i do the same things with my favorite pop divas flopping at the charts

 

Everything can be wildly successful if you know how to phrase it

[JohnnyGossamer]

20 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

Every few months we have a movie that covers up the box office warts.....TGM, Avatar 2, Mario and soon Barbie.

 

March 2023 had opening weekends of 30 million plus that made headlines but the total gross was $638 million. $638 million is 2009 numbers. The summer box office is down 200 million plus vs 2022 if Box Office Mojo is correct. Barbie is going to cover the summer warts. The summer movie season should be packed with new releases so I don't buy the to many movies excuse.

 

I don't want to be doom and gloom but the pattern seems to be happening.  It takes a lot to get people to the theater. What's the 30th highest grossing movie this year vs 2018 or 2019?  The box office is being saved every few months by movies entering the top 20 highest grossing Domestic movies of all time.

 

The tracking tread has ATP. The ATP is is what 25% higher vs just 3 1/2 years ago? Yet, revenue is still down 25% from 3 1/2 years ago. I'm going to assume movie theater expenses are at least 25% higher. 

 

I don't have a solution to fix the problem but maybe this is just the new reality.

 

 

Eh... I'd add GotGV3 and AtSV in there too. Both did extremely well. Heck, if TLM crawls over 300M+ DOM, probably deserves an honorable mention as well. People scoffed at that 300M DOM then Faxt X, Transformers, Flash and Indy happened. Changed hindsight a bit.

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

1 minute ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Alot of doom and gloom takes about Elemental and Pixar already look well outdated as Elemental will eventually land above $400M

Elemental still didn’t do great for Pixar’s standards.