The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Porthos]

On 10/11/2023 at 12:46 AM, Porthos said:

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-30 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	26760	27313	553	2.02%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

553

 

Day 1 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 1	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	63.27		874	874		0/96	14669/15543	5.62%		6409	8.63%		6.80m
GOTG3	29.23		1892	1892		0/205	27676/29568	6.40%		10750	5.14%		5.11m
TLM	121.81		454	454		0/153	21451/21905	2.07%		6561	8.43%		12.55m
AtSV	54.27		1019	1019		0/124	17505/18524	5.50%		9744	5.68%		9.42m
Flash	86.41		640	640		0/158	21727/22367	2.86%		5327	10.38%		8.38m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:        47/8661  [0.54% sold]
Matinee:    19/2547  [0.75% | 3.44% of all tickets sold]
3D:            30/4901  [0.61% | 5.42% of all tickets sold]

 

====

 

Not much to say which hasn't already been said.  All around a (very) soft start.

 

Do have some notes though.  As I suspected, The Little Mermaid is a pretty unsuitable comp, but I added it by @TwoMisfits request.  Quite likely will disappear in short order.

 

Do actually have something to say about the Eternals comp.  That actually started out relatively strongly (for the era) before it all but nose dived when reviews started to roll in.  So something to keep in mind as it's plausible for The Marvels to climb against it.

 

The other thing to keep in mind is pre-sale length:

 

Eternals:        25 days of pre-sales

GOTG3:         32 days of pre-sales

TLM:              30 days of pre-sales

AtSV:              25 days of pre-sales

The Flash:      24 days of pre-sales

The Marvels:  31 days of pre-sales

 

Some are closer than others, but with relatively so few sales, that gets magnified. 

 

Still, is what it is.  Anything else is (more) commentary.

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	26689	27313	624	2.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

71

 

Day 2 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	58.15		199	1073		0/96	14470/15543	6.90%		6409	9.74%		6.25m
GOTG3	28.93		265	2157		0/205	27411/29568	7.30%		10750	5.80%		5.06m
TLM	114.71		90	544		0/154	21462/22006	2.47%		6561	9.51%		11.81m
AtSV	49.06		253	1272		0/123	18626/19898	6.39%		9744	6.40%		8.52m
Flash	82.32		118	758		0/174	23970/24728	3.07%		5327	11.71%		7.99m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     57/8661  [0.66% sold]
Matinee:    20/2547  [0.79% | 3.21% of all tickets sold]
3D:            42/4901  [0.86% | 6.73% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yeaaah, thazza not good.  Nothing else to add.

 

(also brain too fried for real commentary)

[Porthos]

On 10/11/2023 at 12:45 AM, Porthos said:

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night Seat Report:

T-3 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	1	205	15480	24572	9092	37.00%

 

Total Showings Added Today	29
Total Seats Added Today	2164
Total Seats Sold Today	156

 

T-3 Comps:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	42.39		925	21447		1/340	18316/39763	53.94%		28183	32.26%		21.20m	30.73m
MoM	59.08		1037	15390		0/368	28239/43629	35.27%		21117	43.06%		21.27m	30.84m
Thor 4	89.94		550	10109		0/251	23592/33701	30.00%		16962	53.60%		26.08m	37.82m
BP2	82.30		914	11048		2/355	30945/41993	26.31%		16800	54.12%		23.04m	33.41m
AM3	128.27		474	7088		0/269	28018/35106	20.19%		10475	86.80%		22.45m	32.55m
GOTG3	144.18		587	6306		0/273	29558/35864	17.58%		10750	84.58%		25.23m	36.59m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-3 Final Percents:

	%		Sold T-3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	134.32		748	6769		0/324	31752/38521	17.57%		11757	77.33%
JWD	149.96		795	6063		0/281	26773/32836	18.46%		10966	82.91%
Ava 2	163.91		453	5547		0/277	27377/32924	16.85%		8986	101.18%
AtSV	203.90		516	4459		0/142	18015/22474	19.84%		9744	93.31%
Barbie	138.32		908	6573		1/180	19138/25711	25.56%		12077	75.28%
Oppy	323.44		351	2811		0/78	7745/10556	26.63%		4621	196.75%
Barben	96.89		1259	9384		1/258	26883/36267	25.87%		16698	54.45%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2499/8588  [29.10% sold]

 

====

 

Well, showtimes have definitely been added!  Now that the horse has been led to water, will they actually drink?  Find out over the next three days, I suppose.

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area Opening Night (FRI) Seat Report:

T-2 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	305	26001	35304	9303	26.35%

 

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today	1
Total Showings Added Today	100
Total Seats Added Today	10732
Total Seats Sold Today	211

 

T-2 Comps:       IGNORE ALL COMPS BELOW FOR VERY VERY OBVIOUS REASONS

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Unadj  Comp	Ad-hoc Comp
NWH	40.26		1659	23106		1/368	18946/42052	54.95%		28183	33.01%		20.13m	29.19m
MoM	56.14		1182	16572		0/383	28323/44895	36.91%		21117	44.05%		20.21m	29.30m
Thor 4	82.55		1161	11270		0/311	28171/39441	28.57%		16962	54.85%		23.94m	34.71m
BP2	78.00		879	11927		2/375	31211/43138	27.65%		16800	55.38%		21.84m	31.67m
AM3	121.21		587	7675		0/289	28754/36429	21.07%		10475	88.81%		21.21m	30.76m
GOTG3	129.41		883	7189		0/315	31900/39089	18.39%		10750	86.54%		22.65m	32.84m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Era Tour's current tickets sold versus that final number.

AD-HOC COMP NOTE: "Ad-hoc Comp" is the normal comp multiplied by 1.45x (a 45% increase), which is what I am using for now to account for the difference in ATP between TET and all other films.

 

T-2 Final Percents:            IGNORE THESE AS WELL

	%		Sold T-2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final
Bats	117.49		1149	7918		0/326	30853/38771	20.42%		11757	79.13%
JWD	135.63		796	6859		0/288	26655/33514	20.47%		10966	84.83%
Ava 2	148.37		723	6270		0/296	27849/34119	18.38%		8986	103.53%
AtSV	172.18		944	5403		0/230	23909/29312	18.43%		9744	95.47%
Barbie	122.15		1043	7616		0/244	19827/27443	27.75%		12077	77.03%
Oppy	298.84		302	3113		0/80	7569/10682	29.14%		4621	201.32%
Barben	86.71		1345	10729		0/324	27396/38125	28.14%		16698	55.71%

NOTE: Barben is shorthand for the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon and is the combined totals of Barbie and Oppenheimer

 

Regal:     2499/8588  [29.10% sold]

 

==========

 

PREVIEW SEATS SOLD SO FAR

 

*****NO COMPS AS OF YET — COMPS (OF A SORT) WILL SHOW UP TOMORROW*****

 

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour Greater Sacramento Area PREVIEW NIGHT (THR) Seat Report:

T-1 day and counting

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	156	18715	19196	481	2.51%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

481

 

======================

 

That's actually kinda impressive given the insanely haphazard nature of the rollout, maybe?   Especially given that a lot of theaters didn't have showtimes up 'till 8pm or so?

 

Maybe?

 

Hell if I know.

 

No other thoughts, including about Friday as things are hella unsettled.  Want to wait for the dust to settle a bit before reassessing Friday.

Edited October 12, 2023 by Porthos

[Taylor89]

4 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I can see something like

10
30
32
23 // 96

 

Can it reach 100m?

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/11/2023 at 12:30 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

The Marvels MiniTC2 T-30

 

Previews - 546/67203 (244 showings)

 

Comps
0.35x Spider-Verse 2 first day - $6M

0.19x GoTG 3 first day - $3.25M 

0.53x Eternals first day - $5M

1.16x Shang Chi first day - $10M

 

MCU drop continues. 2nd lowest start for a MCU film, though Shang Chi under indexed in the region, so nationwide could be under Shang Chi as well.

The Marvels MiniTC2 T-29

Previews - 662/68429 (249 showings)

YIKES.

Comps

0.35x Spider-Verse 2 first day - $6M

0.56x Eternals first day - $5.3M

0.98x Shang Chi first day - $8.3M

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/10/2023 at 5:49 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

FNAF MiniTC2 T-17 Days

Previews - 4129/47496 (184 showings)

 

Comps

1.06x Barbie - $23.7M

2.67x Oppenheimer - $28M
1.11x Avatar 2 - $19M
2.35x Eternals - $22M

LOL.

FNAF MiniTC2 T-15 Days
 

Previews - 4631/48998 (189 showings)

Comps

1.05x Barbie - $23.6M

2.75x Oppenheimer - $26M (Adj for ATP)
1.15x Avatar 2 - $17.5M (Adj for ATP)
2.3x Eternals - $22M

 

4.6x of Scream VI - $26M

LOL.

[vafrow]

Nothing up yet for Thursday or Friday matinees at Cineplex.

 

Maybe they'll wait until 10:00 to align to others. But, the matinee shows should be easy. They're already on the books. Thry just need to release them on the site.

 

For Thursday showings, they'll presumably be cancelling other shows to make room. I imag the earlier that gets done, the better.

[Porthos]

8 hours ago, datpepper said:

Alright, here's what I've heard:

 

At least one major theater chain is saying "F it" and quietly allowing customers to exchange their tickets in-person to another show (and even refund them entirely), at the discretion of theater management.

 

FWIW, while doing my various checks tonight, I saw some VERY obvious drops at more than a couple of locations.

 

Now since I ain't a stool pigeon, I ain't gonna mention where I saw this.  But consider this a piece of anecdotal evidence that this isn't an isolated phenomenon. 

Edited October 12, 2023 by Porthos

[tdangie]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

FNAF MiniTC2 T-15 Days
 

Previews - 4631/48998 (189 showings)

Comps

1.05x Barbie - $23.6M

2.75x Oppenheimer - $26M (Adj for ATP)
1.15x Avatar 2 - $17.5M (Adj for ATP)
2.3x Eternals - $22M

 

4.6x of Scream VI - $26M

LOL.

Man I'm gonna dread seeing some of these FNAF comps once the Barbenheimer bandwagon starts to really explode, but I'll enjoy this ride while it lasts ❤️

[JustLurking]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	184	26689	27313	624	2.28%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

71

 

Day 2 Comps:

	%		Sold Day 2	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	58.15		199	1073		0/96	14470/15543	6.90%		6409	9.74%		6.25m
GOTG3	28.93		265	2157		0/205	27411/29568	7.30%		10750	5.80%		5.06m
TLM	114.71		90	544		0/154	21462/22006	2.47%		6561	9.51%		11.81m
AtSV	49.06		253	1272		0/123	18626/19898	6.39%		9744	6.40%		8.52m
Flash	82.32		118	758		0/174	23970/24728	3.07%		5327	11.71%		7.99m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     57/8661  [0.66% sold]
Matinee:    20/2547  [0.79% | 3.21% of all tickets sold]
3D:            42/4901  [0.86% | 6.73% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Yeaaah, thazza not good.  Nothing else to add.

 

(also brain too fried for real commentary)

This is fucking dreadful, holy fuck.

[M37]

After sleeping on it, have two thoughts on the last minute ERAS early showings 

 

1) This remains a terrible process: pissing off fans who had bought what was supposed to the very first show, only to see late comers get opportunity to cut in line (and potentially buy up merch), as well as studios (losing shows at last minute to accommodate) and exhibitors having to scramble to adjust show and staffing schedules to accommodate. Nobody really wins here, even moreso because …

 

2) Given the very late roll-out and the overall extremely low pace of sales - limited demand beyond the fans already with tickets in hand - I don’t expect these shows to add all that much to the OW total. Have seen up to $10M floated out for Thursday, and IMO that’s too high (unless we see high volume of swapping of Fri tickets for Thursday, which is only robbing from one day to another). Added capacity is great, but with such a weak walk-up rate, how much does it really matter? The people Swift can move with a Tweet were mostly moved weeks ago, Friday tickets in hand 

 

Thinking it will be enough to push total over $100M - but not by much. Instead of say ~$95M, get ~$4-5M for Thur and a couple more added to Fri, so now it’s ~$101-$103M.  And at least some of these new Th/Fr sales would have been potential Sat/Sun walk-ups, now removed, and we probably see Sat with a drop from TFri 

Edited October 12, 2023 by M37

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

After sleeping on it, have two thoughts on the last minute ERAS early showings 

 

 

Thinking it will be enough to push total over $100M - but not by much. Instead of say ~$95M, get ~$4-5M for Thur and a couple more added to Fri, so now it’s ~$101-$103M.  And at least some of these new Th/Fr sales would have been potential Sat/Sun walk-ups, now removed, and we probably see Sat with a drop from TFri 

 

I'm leery to ever predict a drop from one day to the next (true Friday to true Saturday) when the 2nd day has roughly 25-30% more showings/theater, since Friday (for now) is a 2pm start (and that's last minute) and Saturday is a 10am start for most theaters.

 

Remember, the presales were ENORMOUS, so Saturday almost certainly is close to matching Friday presales (if not above them) and has more room to grow for walk ups...

Edited October 12, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[M37]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I'm leery to ever predict a drop from one day to the next (true Friday to true Saturday) when the 2nd day has roughly 25-30% more showings/theater, since Friday (for now) is a 2pm start (and that's last minute) and Saturday is a 10am start for most theaters.

 

Remember, the presales were ENORMOUS, so Saturday almost certainly is close to matching Friday presales (if not above them) and has more room to grow for walk ups...

As of the last couple of updates, Saturday sales were well below Fri in all but Drafthouse, and with pace not much higher to make up ground. Now Friday suddenly has added capacity to catch whatever limited walk-ups we’re going to see. I think at best it’s flat (+5% or below), unless walk-ups suddenly materialize in a way the pace of sales doesn’t suggest they will 

 

Something like $4/$37/$35/$25 = $101M is where my expectations are at, but a whole lot of uncertainty there 

[Borobudur]

Eras tour movie is 100% on Rotten Tomato with 9.3/10 average rating. 

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/10/2023 at 6:05 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Taylor Swift MiniTC2 T-4 Days

Friday - 15080/50869 (211 showings)

No comps as none make sense. The pace is bad. The last 7 days are 2/3rd of Oppenheimer.

 

Saturday  - 8918/101040 (396 showings)

Taylor Swift MiniTC2 T-2 Days

 

THU - 787/33601 (126 showings)
FRI - 15913/88425 (385 showings)

THU has more sales than any other day after first three days of sales. May be final is 5K+. Tough to say what that mean for nationwide but may be $5M type.

FRI thinking 21-22K final perhaps.

[vafrow]

Cineplex has started adding Thursday night shows. Only one theatre in my area so far, but I anticipate more. It's already sold about 10 tickets though.

 

No Friday matinees showing up yet.

 

 

[VanillaSkies]

Adding to the weird rollout for this film, its huge premiere last night is all over social media, especially the picture of Taylor and Beyoncé together at the premiere. (I assume now Taylor will also show up to support the Renaissance premiere).

 

So with little promotion up to this point, and then huge coverage today and tomorrow on social media, damned if I know if that moves the needle at all. Some of the Thursday showings are showing impressive sales, others look tepid. I guess it really depends if people will walk up tonight.

 

i still feel like they can squeeze out 100m.

[JustWatching]

20 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Cineplex has started adding Thursday night shows. Only one theatre in my area so far, but I anticipate more. It's already sold about 10 tickets though.

 

No Friday matinees showing up yet.

 

 

Yeah, my local cinemark has added a 6 pm show tonight which has sold 30 tix so far and 5 early shows Friday that have sold a combined 6 tickets so far.

[Madhuvan]

I genuinely don't think there will be much walkups.

Around 90m is what I think

[keysersoze123]

On 10/10/2023 at 10:10 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Only data I have been able to get and its not full data for MTC2. 

 

MTC2 The Marvels Previews - 8965/429144 138860.77 2628 shows

MTC2 The Marvels Previews - 12568/569613 191454.37 3592 shows

 

This is full data. Guardians earlier in the day was at 31.5K. So this is slightly over third of Guardians here. I think we are in unchartered territory. BW T-26 was at 22K+. This is probably in Eternals territory or slightly lower. Definitely above Shang Chi but its not good to compare to 2021 movies. I think we are better off waiting and tracking this close to release. 

[charlie Jatinder]

6 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC2 The Marvels Previews - 12568/569613 191454.37 3592 shows

 

This is full data. Guardians earlier in the day was at 31.5K. So this is slightly over third of Guardians here. I think we are in unchartered territory. BW T-26 was at 22K+. This is probably in Eternals territory or slightly lower. Definitely above Shang Chi but its not good to compare to 2021 movies. I think we are better off waiting and tracking this close to release. 

Shang Chi at similar time was 12400 in 2k shows. Without blocked around 11K. 
Marvels without blocked be around 10.5K.