The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TwoMisfits]

30 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Captain Marvel skewed male largely because it acted as a bridge between the Avengers finale films and had massive casual audience interest because of that element, outweighing the fact it was MCU's first female-led movie which became a secondary factor in the shadow of much bigger hype between 2018 and 2019. This is also a movie starring three main female protagonists and a female antagonist.

 

As for the Taylor Swift under $100m fears... I'm not convinced yet.

 

Stick to this thought, Shawn:).  

 

As for Captain Marvel's male/female skew...I don't think it helps if it skews female when it's opening against a (albeit probably limited) female-skewing musical and has a female-skewing Hunger Games prequel and Trolls sequel the next weekend - in fact, the number of possible female skewing movies (to include Wish Thanksgiving) are gonna hurt for those once a month Cinemark subscribers and once a month GA goers - too many options at too high a cost to see everything...

Edited October 11, 2023 by TwoMisfits

[Shawn Robbins]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Stick to this thought, Shawn:).  

 

As for Captain Marvel's male/female skew...I don't think it helps if it skews female when it's opening against a (albeit probably limited) female-skewing musical and has a female-skewing Hunger Games prequel and Trolls sequel the next weekend - in fact, the number of possible female skewing movies (to include Wish Thanksgiving) are gonna hurt for those once a month Cinemark subscribers and once a month GA goers - too many options at too high a cost to see everything...

Also good points here. My initial comments were in regard to Taylor overshadowing everything among female audiences, who will be very important for The Marvels as a franchise movie with four women essentially in lead roles.

 

In other words, it just contextualizes one reason (of many) pre-sales are so low right now. It's going to lose a big portion of its male audience from Captain Marvel with or without Taylor taking all the attention right now.

[vale9001]

TET even if It's opening with 90-100 M ( all last hours predictions from media btw are still 100-125M) is a big event for a specific target. People went here from numbers without any sense like 300 M to now It's "nothing special" to make 100M with probably a 70-80% of under 35 women. It's definitely a very huge event for this target and what @shawn says makes sense. Even "Just" 30m for Hannah Montana are very very big if you want to think "how much another movie only for 14-18 years old girls can be damaged by It?" cause making 31 M only with that target means a very strong penetration on It.

The real question Is how much The Marvels should be "a female movie" cause usually marvels is not. But i agree opening the Sales this week wasn't a good idea. 

Edited October 11, 2023 by vale9001

[misterpepp]

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes on sale Nov 1

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, datpepper said:

Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes on sale Nov 1

 

I am damned curious on how that's gonna do, ftr.

 

Just enough time has passed for nostalgia to kick in.  On the other hand, as noted by @TwoMisfits key demo has insane competition for weeks on end + the genre being deader than a dodo.

 

Likely to bomb, and yet... Damned damned curious about it. 

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

I am damned curious on how that's gonna do, ftr.

 

Just enough time has passed for nostalgia to kick in.  On the other hand, as noted by @TwoMisfits key demo has insane competition for weeks on end + the genre being deader than a dodo.

 

Likely to bomb, and yet... Damned damned curious about it. 

Opening day should confirm one way or other. It needs to have a strong start if brand has any value. 

[titanic2187]

23 hours ago, Arlborn said:

A Swiftie friend of mine has said she has posted something about the movie today, let's see if that has any effect, but yes, Eras is shaping up to be a bit of a disappointment considering the expectations we had of it. Pity, let's hope FNAF doesn't fall off a cliff either.

I expect Swift herself to attend the red carpet premiere later. That is last push and if pace didn't change too much, we are heading to some disappointment but still good weekend. 

[Maggie]

How's Killers of the Flower Moon doing? Anyone tracking?

[Relevation]

22 minutes ago, Maggie said:

How's Killers of the Flower Moon doing? Anyone tracking?

Looking like $3-4M Thurs with current comps, so it’s prob headed to a $35-45M debut

[jeffthehat]

On 10/10/2023 at 10:02 AM, jeffthehat said:

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-3 (4 days of sales)

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 125

Seats sold - 7596 

Total seats - 20734

% sold - 36.6%

New sales - 626 (+9%)

 

Growing a lot slower than I thought it would at this stage. Don't think it's gonna hit 10k in sales here. A lot of folks called it, but surprised me to see how frontloaded this ended up being.

 

The comps are still confusing me. I'm guessing Denver/Minneapolis/Ok will finish upper 40s, while Orlando/Sacto/Alamo will finish high 20s/ low 30s. Normally I'd average them and say high 30s/ low 40s OD. But the more experienced guys seem to be saying low 30s, so that's probably where it's heading. I guess T-0 comps could be misleading too as other movies should get more walkups in the later shows. 

 

 

Eras Malco Theaters T-2 

 

Theater count - 24

Show count - 149 (+24)

Seats sold - 8004

Total seats - 23472

% sold - 34.1%

New sales - 408 (+5.1%)

 

Got more new shows than I thought it would. 

 

 

[Zakiyyah6]

Marvel has never had a film that skewed female so I'm not buying that The Marvels skews female without hard proof. 

[Shawn Robbins]

17 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Marvel has never had a film that skewed female so I'm not buying that The Marvels skews female without hard proof. 

You may be misunderstanding the context with which I was using the term "skewed". Most Marvel films register 58-60% or more men on opening weekend. Captain Marvel, as their only female-led film up to that point, was 55%.

 

The only other comparable film is Wonder Woman, which as mentioned, actually drew a majority female audience on opening weekend with 52%.

 

Black Widow (58% male) is a toss-out comp as it opened mid-pandemic when adult women were statistically proven to be the most hesitant to come back to theaters in 2021.

 

For all intents and purposes, that's as much hard proof as anyone will get to at least consider why The Marvels *could* (operative word there) have a similar or higher share (versus CM) of women turn out -- especially when considering the toxic online audience that has trashed the first film and its place in the franchise over the last four years, going so far as to review-bomb it upon release.

 

Let's also remember this was scheduled to open right after Dune 2, a very male-heavy IP, before the latter bailed to 2024. So Disney themselves clearly were already banking on a strong female turnout to counter-program Dune's second weekend-that-is-no-more.

 

It's not to say this *will* happen, but that it has to be considered under all the circumstances.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2155

2657

81.11%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2162

2741

78.88%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
11138	61	22953	48.53%	13	158

 

2.067	Barbie T-3	46.09M
1.545	Thor L&T T-3	44.79M
1.030	Doctor Strange MoM T-3	37.09M
0.680	No Way Home T-3	34.02M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Denver Friday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

2166

2714

79.81%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

2180

3218

67.74%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
11307	169	22941	40.78%	13	145

 

1.791	Barbie T-2	39.93M
1.425	Thor L&T T-2	41.31M
0.952	Doctor Strange MoM T-2	34.29M
0.642	No Way Home T-2	32.09M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-3 Friday

174 Showings

11756

+359

23063

ATP:

22.19

0.659	Thor L&T Thurs T-3	19.12M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-3	28.29M
0.507	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-3	18.25M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-3	26.93M
0.412	NWH Thurs T-3	20.58M

 

T-4 Saturday

344 Showings

15672

+225

45717

ATP:

22.01

0.999	Thor L&T Fri T-4	40.52M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-4	60.60M
0.708	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-4	38.74M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-4	58.21M
0.576	NWH Fri T-4	41.46M

 

T-5 Sunday

313 Showings

12809

+236

41753

ATP:

21.93

0.878	Thor L&T Sat T-5	36.96M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-5	56.60M
0.544	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-5	31.46M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-5	48.61M
0.458	NWH Sat T-5	33.84M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Alamo Drafthouse

T-2 Friday

178 Showings

12122

+366

23577

ATP:

22.17

0.635	Thor L&T Thurs T-2	18.42M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Thurs T-2	27.25M
0.472	Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-2	16.98M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Thurs T-2	25.04M
0.411	NWH Thurs T-2	20.55M

 

T-3 Saturday

358 Showings

16002

+330

47459

ATP:

22.01

0.925	Thor L&T Fri T-3	37.53M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Fri T-3	56.11M
0.619	Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-3	33.85M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Fri T-3	50.86M

 

T-4 Sunday

323 Showings

13149

+340

42916

ATP:

21.94

0.800	Thor L&T Sat T-4	33.69M
	Adjusted Thor L&T Sat T-4	51.61M
0.480	Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-4	27.73M
	Adjusted Doctor Strange MoM Sat T-4	42.87M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-3 Friday

152 Showings

11059

+315

21902

1.454

Barbie Thurs T-3

32.42M

 

T-4 Saturday

315 Showings

8442

+317

44985

0.750

Barbie Fri T-4

35.88M

 

T-5 Sunday

270 Showings

5255

+242

39897

0.818

Barbie Sat T-5

35.77M

Taylor Swift Eras Tour Emagine Entertainment

T-2 Friday

164 Showings

11329

+270

22644

1.285

Barbie Thurs T-2

28.66M

 

T-3 Saturday

335 Showings

8764

+322

46317

0.640

Barbie Fri T-3

30.59M

 

T-4 Sunday

291 Showings

5480

+225

41543

0.682

Barbie Sat T-4

29.82M

[ZattMurdock]

30 minutes ago, Shawn said:

You may be misunderstanding the context with which I was using the term "skewed". Most Marvel films register 58-60% or more men on opening weekend. Captain Marvel, as their only female-led film up to that point, was 55%.

 

The only other comparable film is Wonder Woman, which as mentioned, actually drew a majority female audience on opening weekend with 52%.

 

Black Widow (58% male) is a toss-out comp as it opened mid-pandemic when adult women were statistically proven to be the most hesitant to come back to theaters in 2021.

 

For all intents and purposes, that's as much hard proof as anyone will get to at least consider why The Marvels *could* (operative word there) have a similar or higher share (versus CM) of women turn out -- especially when considering the toxic online audience that has trashed the first film and its place in the franchise over the last four years, going so far as to review-bomb it upon release.

 

Let's also remember this was scheduled to open right after Dune 2, a very male-heavy IP, before the latter bailed to 2024. So Disney themselves clearly were already banking on a strong female turnout to counter-program Dune's second weekend-that-is-no-more.

 

It's not to say this *will* happen, but that it has to be considered under all the circumstances.

I think people sometimes have a very hard time understanding what male ‘skewed’ means, when it comes to a film like Captain Marvel. More than the point that you’re mentioning about having a slightly bigger female audience than the usual, I think it’s easy to forget that the portion of Captain Marvel’s OW that was female represented around $69m from the $153m total. That’s nothing to sneeze at, even when we compare to Wonder Woman, that skewed slightly more female (for an around 100m OW iirc).

 

Sometimes it feels like people seem to think that just because Marvel’s audience skews male, the female audience isn’t there. Also, like Shawn has pointed out, the very fact that Captain Marvel was linked to Infinity War and Endgame could lead to yet more of a male skewed audience. I think the biggest enemy against The Marvels isn’t really ‘superhero fatigue’, but an eventual lack of promotion by the stars. If it gets that plus good wom, it still has potential of doing good box office numbers.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

158

1101

14.35%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

95

279

34.05%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
874	12	10782	8.11%	13	67

 

1.152	The Flash T-16	11.17M
0.602	AtSV T-16	10.44M

 

Two of the theaters I track updated their seat maps or something, and now some blocked seats that aren't actually sold are counting as sold. Didn't realize this until now, so I updated yesterday to reflect that.

Five Nights at Freddy's Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

167

1104

15.13%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

99

279

35.48%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
937	63	10185	9.67%	13	61

 

1.168	The Flash T-15	11.33M
0.616	AtSV T-15	10.70M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-16 Thursday

94 Showings

3361

+128

11890

ATP:

16.02

1.612	The Flash T-16	15.64M
0.846	AtSV T-16	14.68M

 

T-17 Friday

110 Showings

2799

+104

13757

ATP:

14.99

2.083	The Flash T-17	30.82M
0.877	AtSV T-17	30.24M

 

T-18 Saturday

105 Showings

1809

+108

12252

ATP:

14.59

1.550	The Flash T-18	24.34M
0.539	AtSV T-18	20.16M

 

T-19 Sunday

94 Showings

800

+57

11237

ATP:

13.75

1.688	The Flash T-19	26.16M
0.457	AtSV T-19	14.27M

Five Nights at Freddy's Alamo Drafthouse

T-15 Thursday

94 Showings

3495

+134

11890

ATP:

15.95

1.636	The Flash T-15	15.87M
0.848	AtSV T-15	14.71M

 

T-16 Friday

112 Showings

2961

+162

14479

ATP:

14.97

2.152	The Flash T-16	31.85M
0.868	AtSV T-16	29.96M

 

T-17 Saturday

106 Showings

1945

+136

12844

ATP:

14.55

1.556	The Flash T-17	24.43M
0.550	AtSV T-17	20.57M

 

T-18 Sunday

97 Showings

887

+87

12034

ATP:

13.72

1.821	The Flash T-18	28.23M
0.468	AtSV T-18	14.63M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-16 Thursday

86 Showings

1227

+72

11127

1.331	The Flash T-16	12.91M
1.142	AtSV T-16	19.82M

 

T-17 Friday

126 Showings

2597

+149

15818

5.143	The Flash T-17	76.11M
2.808	AtSV T-17	96.86M

 

T-18 Saturday

128 Showings

709

+73

16049

2.073	The Flash T-18	32.55M
1.742	AtSV T-18	65.15M

 

T-19 Sunday

118 Showings

203

+5

14809

1.460	The Flash T-19	22.64M
1.187	AtSV T-19	37.10M

Five Nights at Freddy's Emagine Entertainment

T-15 Thursday

86 Showings

1284

+57

11121

1.318	The Flash T-15	12.79M
1.148	AtSV T-15	19.93M

 

T-16 Friday

126 Showings

2720

+123

15809

5.056	The Flash T-16	74.83M
2.739	AtSV T-16	94.50M

 

T-17 Saturday

128 Showings

767

+58

16036

2.179	The Flash T-17	34.21M
1.727	AtSV T-17	64.61M

 

T-18 Sunday

118 Showings

212

+9

14794

1.462	The Flash T-18	22.66M
1.010	AtSV T-18	31.55M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

113

3221

3.51%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

98

2202

4.45%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
467	N/A	23416	1.99%	12	128

 

1.455	The Flash 6.5 hours	14.11M
0.433	Guardians 3 11 hours	7.57M
0.340	Ant-Man 3 14 hours	5.96M

The Marvels Denver Thursday

AMC Westminster 24

Total

138

3221

4.28%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

110

2202

5.00%

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD PAST DAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
559	92	23416	2.39%	12	118

 

1.098	The Flash Day 2	10.65M
0.400	Guardians 3 Day 2	7.00M
0.292	Ant-Man 3 Day 2	5.10M
0.719	Eternals Day 2	6.83M