The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Borobudur]

2 hours ago, DAJK said:

Boys in the Boat, Ferrari, and TCP are all increasing it total ticket sales today from yesterday. That being said, Tuesday discounts means that ATP is much much lower. 
 

If I had to extrapolate from very early numbers, I’d guess 9-10 for TCP, 3.5 for Boat, and 1.5 for Ferrari. 

I thought Tuesday discount is temporarily suspended during holiday? 

[Mojoguy]

5 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I thought Tuesday discount is temporarily suspended during holiday? 

At my nearest Regal theater, all movies are getting Tues discount pricing except for TCP. 

[TwoMisfits]

12 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I thought Tuesday discount is temporarily suspended during holiday? 

 

Cinemark suspends it.  Regal does not.  No idea what AMC does.

[rehpyc]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

It might be "right for wrong reasons" since, per Jat, about 1m to 2m of private shows were rolled into TCP, but a Win is a Win!

 

CONGRATS TO YOU BOTH!!!

To be fair, isn’t this the same for any movie that has EAs included in the reported preview gross?

[cooldude97]

man this tread is going to slow down a lot for the next 2 months 

[rehpyc]

On 12/23/2023 at 10:52 PM, rehpyc said:

To those that have them, check out FNAF as a comp, both for similar ATP and growth at this stage.

 

On 12/23/2023 at 10:54 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

At $18.36M

 

[dallas]

1 minute ago, cooldude97 said:

man this tread is going to slow down a lot for the next 2 months 

You underestimate the power of The Beekeeper and Argylle 

 

/s

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

man this tread is going to slow down a lot for the next 2 months 

Madame Web presale day 1 is gonna be fun, just to see how bad it's gonna bomb, but other than that. . .

[DAJK]

32 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I thought Tuesday discount is temporarily suspended during holiday? 

Not in Canada.

[Porthos]

24 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

To be fair, isn’t this the same for any movie that has EAs included in the reported preview gross?

 

No, because we're generally able to track EA showings at the seat level while these private showings were (nearly) completely off the grid.  That is, generally speaking we can track the EA, sneaks, day-of, whatever, and figure them all out. These private showings, however, were a complete unknown wildcard.  Might have theoretically been able to track missing screens if folks put an unreasonable amount of time into figuring out unaccounted for auditoriums, but even there it was no guarantee it wasn't set aside for some other promo like a birthday party or a private holiday screening of some other movie.  

 

We did this sorta kinda back when Private Watch Parties were a thing during the beginnings of COVID.  But they rapidly fell out of favor and by the time Black Widow rolled around, PWPs pretty much became a non-factor again.

 

(also, for those who want know these things for future comps, apparently those private showings were $2.8m according to @charlie Jatinder so the "actual" Christmas Day total for TCP was approx 15.4m)

Edited December 26, 2023 by Porthos

[abracadabra1998]

31 minutes ago, cooldude97 said:

man this tread is going to slow down a lot for the next 2 months 

Night Swim, The Beekeeper, and Mean Girls Minneapolis update on Thursday, don’t fall off your seats waiting 🎉

[Porthos]

4 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Night Swim, The Beekeeper, and Mean Girls Minneapolis update on Thursday, don’t fall off your seats waiting 🎉

 

ngl, actually interested in how Mean Girls does.  It's been showing surprising strength in Sacramento (relatively speaking) and I'm curious to see if its replicated anywhere else, as well as seeing just how frontloaded it is.

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, cooldude97 said:

man this tread is going to slow down a lot for the next 2 months 

Probably going to experiment a bit with fandango and see how far i can push it. Thinking I can track around 70% of all Florida screens, so January will be a nice time to test run

 

(downside all previous comps will be useless)

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

No, because we're generally able to track EA showings at the seat level while these private showings were (nearly) completely off the grid.  That is, generally speaking we can track the EA, sneaks, day-of, whatever, and figure them all out. These private showings, however, were a complete unknown wildcard.  Might have theoretically been able to track missing screens if folks put an unreasonable amount of time into figuring out unaccounted for auditoriums, but even there it was no guarantee it wasn't set aside for some other promo like a birthday party or a private holiday screening of some other movie.  

 

We did this sorta kinda back when Private Watch Parties were a thing during the beginnings of COVID.  But they rapidly fell out of favor and by the time Black Widow rolled around, PWPs pretty much became a non-factor again.

 

(also, for those who want know these things for future comps, apparently those private showings were $2.8m according to @charlie Jatinder so the "actual" Christmas Day total for TCP was approx 15.4m)

I don't know if there will be many other movies to track with advanced private screenings like TCP,  but I have family who attended one and can offer some insight. Many of The Color Purple shows were fundraisers with tickets publicly sold on event/ticketing platforms like Eventbrite.

 

The screening my family went to was at a Regal, but the AMC in that city also held a different private screening the same afternoon. Not to mention other screenings in adjacent cities on that day, the next day, the next weekend, etc. The screenings were advertised with the location and time, which would make it a little easier to work out the auditorium not on the regular schedule. The total early screenings for TCP had to be in the low-to-mid hundreds at least.

 

As fundraisers, the ticket prices were somewhat-to-egregiously inflated. I suppose WB charged a flat fee per screening and let the organization keep the rest, but the fee was probably higher than the pandemic-era rate.

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[M37]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Probably going to experiment a bit with fandango and see how far i can push it. Thinking I can track around 70% of all Florida screens, so January will be a nice time to test run

 

(downside all previous comps will be useless)

Another downside: Florida can be a significant outlier in January with SnowBird Season. Would suggest focusing more on Orlando region and E Coast, ignore the W coast until like March

 

(PM if you want to get into the weeds a bit)

[TheFlatLannister]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Another downside: Florida can be a significant outlier in January with SnowBird Season. Would suggest focusing more on Orlando region and E Coast, ignore the W coast until like March

 

(PM if you want to get into the weeds a bit)

excellent point. Do you think Orlando-Miami would still lead to significant outliers? 

[joselowe]

16 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

I don't know if there will be many other movies to track with advanced private screenings like TCP,  but I have family who attended one and can offer some insight. Many of The Color Purple shows were fundraisers with tickets publicly sold on event/ticketing platforms like Eventbrite.

 

The screening my family went to was at a Regal, but the AMC in that city also held a different private screening the same afternoon. Not to mention other screenings in adjacent cities on that day, the next day, the next weekend, etc. The screenings were advertised with the location and time, which would make it a little easier to work out the auditorium not on the regular schedule. The total early screenings for TCP had to be in the low-to-mid hundreds at least.

 

As fundraisers, the ticket prices were somewhat-to-egregiously inflated. I suppose WB charged a flat fee per screening and let the organization keep the rest, but the fee was probably higher than the pandemic-era rate.

 

Yeah I live in Miami and we had some on Eventbrite but they were like $50 per ticket for TCP

[Eric Lasagna]

Quorum Updates

The Boys in the Boat T-0: 27.87% Awareness

The Color Purple T-0: 51.33%

Ferrari T-0: 34.02%

The Beekeeper T-18: 36.07%

I.S.S. T-25: 20.8%

Arthur the King T-88: 25.17%

The Watchers T-165: 28.28%

The Bikeriders T-179: 14.17%

 

Night Swim T-11: 32.85% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 45% chance of 10M, 9% chance of 20M

 

Argylle T-39: 18.88% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

[Poseidon]

23 hours ago, cooldude97 said:

man this tread is going to slow down a lot for the next 2 months 

 

That's pretty optimistic. All of 2024 is going to be different from what we knew. The only twist a year like this could bring, is lots of surprises, that might be exciting to spot via tracking. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

44 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

 

That's pretty optimistic. All of 2024 is going to be different from what we knew. The only twist a year like this could bring, is lots of surprises, that might be exciting to spot via tracking. 

Summer and beyond doesn't look too bad, does it? And every year, there are surprises that pop up from indie studios.