The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Krissykins]

11 hours ago, M37 said:

 

Since as noted, we very little data on Wed/Valentine's opening, decided to rope in the Thursday debuts as well to hopefully help illuminate. The data set still only includes 2 titles since 2013, but nonetheless there does seem to be an underlying pattern.

Here are the Friday to Monday daily grosses, as compared to the midweek Valentine's opening, whether it was on Wed or Thur

 

 

Some clear outliers: on the high end a more male skewing action flick in Jumper, as well as Alita (though if you include the Wed previews into the OD, it comes right back in line with the rest of the bunch, none of which had any previews of note). And on the low end, we the more Valentine's heavy titles like Safe Haven and Daddy's Little Girls. [Also, Isn't it Romantic actually opened on Wed, not Thur/V-Day, so could also see how it may have also dipped down into that lower range had some fraction of early demand not been burned off a day before]

 

More importantly, here's how that daily ebb and flow translates into respective multipliers, estimating a non-VDay Thursday value to fill in the blank for the the films that didn't actually have that day.

 

Title	3-Day	4-Day	6-Day (Est)
Alita TruVD (2019-Th)	4.52	5.31	6.68
Jumper (2008-Th)	4.13	4.84	6.21
Music & Lyrics (2007-W)	3.28	3.82	5.19
Alita Full OD (2019-Th)	3.24	3.80	5.17
Definitely Maybe (2008-Th)	3.13	3.68	5.05
Beautiful Creatures (2013-Th)	2.98	3.52	4.89
Good Day to Die Hard (2013-Th)	3.01	3.48	4.85
Step Up 2 (2008-Th)	2.87	3.35	4.72
Isn't it Romantic (2019-Wed*)	2.59	3.03	4.40
Daddy's Little Girls (2007-W)	2.45	2.86	4.23
Safe Haven (2013-Th)	2.42	2.77	4.14

 

With the caveat of this being a not so great data set, that cluster in the middle range sure seems like a decent place to set expectations, unless either of these films skew towards the high or low end outliers (or V-Day related movie habits have shifted a great deal over the past few years and we just don't have solid enough data to know it yet)

 

I think for Madame Web, my starting point would be Beautiful Creatures, with room to push higher. Off say a $4M OD/V-Day, would expect the rest of the extended weekend to be in the range of:

~$12M 3-day, $14M 4-day, and $20M 6-day

 

Not sure about Marley, though sales so far are suggesting its going to be V-Day heavier, and may track more like DLG, which didn't even manage a 3x V-Day for its ensuing 4-day weekend

My original $22m prediction for Madame Web’s 6 day could come true! 
 

Was going to see Argylle tonight but reviews are too bad for it to be a 2hr20m film and I wasn’t 100% sold anyway. Will wait til some people I know have seen it. 
 

 

Let’s banish the word “meh” too. 

[Porthos]

23 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-29 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23267	24729	1462	5.91%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

52

 

T-29 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-29	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	96.12		47	1521		0/171	22263/23784	6.40%		2915	50.15%		17.30m
BP2	28.44		125	5141		1/294	31881/37022	13.89%		16800	8.70%		7.96m
GOTG3	62.19		194	2351		0/205	27217/29568	7.95%		10750	13.60%		10.88m
Fast X	206.50		30	708		0/182	27030/27738	2.55%		4122	35.47%		15.49m
Indy 5	212.50		20	688		0/124	18839/19527	3.52%		4767	30.67%		15.30m
Oppy	210.06		25	696		0/53	7554/8250	8.44%		10750	13.60%		22.06m
AM3	47.81		257	3058		0/231	29307/32365	9.45%		10475	13.96%		8.37m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     403/8153  [4.94% sold]
Matinee:    19/2762  [0.69% | 1.30% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:        592/814  [72.73% sold] [+4 tickets]
Thr:    870/23915  [3.64% sold] [+48 tickets]
PLF:    1263/9813  [12.87% | 86.39% of all tickets sold]

 

Dune: Part Two - Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-28 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	171	23233	24729	1496	6.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

34

 

T-29 Comps         UNIFORMLY TERRIBLE EDITION - DON'T TAKE SERIOUSLY AT ALL!!!

	%		Sold T-28	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
JWD	95.47		46	1567		0/171	22217/23784	6.59%		2915	51.32%		17.18m
BP2	28.33		139	5280		1/294	31742/37022	14.26%		16800	8.90%		7.93m
GOTG3	60.74		112	2463		0/205	27105/29568	8.33%		10750	13.92%		10.63m
Fast X	210.41		3	711		0/182	27027/27738	2.56%		4122	36.29%		15.78m
Indy 5	205.21		41	729		0/124	18798/19527	3.73%		4767	31.38%		14.78m
Oppy	206.06		30	726		0/53	7524/8250	8.80%		10750	13.92%		21.64m
AM3	45.54		227	3285		0/231	29080/32365	10.15%		10475	14.28%		7.97m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Dune: Part Two's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     408/8153  [5.00% sold]
Matinee:    31/2762  [1.12% | 2.07% of all tickets sold]
———    
Sun:    596/814     [73.22% sold] [+4 tickets]
Thr:    900/23915  [3.76% sold] [+30 tickets]
PLF:    1282/9813  [13.06% | 85.70% of all tickets sold]

Edited February 2 by Porthos

[leoh]

47 minutes ago, Alexander said:

Yeah, I thought MW is looking like 6-6.5 wed+thu and 12-15 fri+sat+sun lol.

I think some factors are making Madame Web exceed expectations. First, it’s because we had low expectations (I was kinda trashing it before pre sales start ngl lol). Second , it is the lack of competition, Argylle could cause some problems on VDay week, but now we know it won’t. Lol Third, it is the WoM (this one we will only know when the move is released on Feb 14).

Edited February 2 by leoh

[BadOlCatSylvester]

2 hours ago, misterpepp said:

 

Think Tenet still holds the record for lowest 3-day wide domestic opening for a $200m+ budgeted production at $9.3m, though obviously that comes with a huge asterisk. This should be second-lowest?

Tenet should not count, as barely any theaters were open in the US when it launched during extraordinary, once-in-a-lifetime circumstances. Argylle is opening in a fully operational marketplace devoid of any real competition that could use more movies to bide its time until Dune 2 properly starts the year. It has no excuse to open this low, unless the movie is unappealing and unwatchable. Our distributor likely saw what was coming and scaled back the release in my country significantly, thus it won't be playing in my area and I won't be able to see it in theaters, so I can't say for myself how bad it truly is. Hopefully our denizens will enlighten us in the weekend thread tonight.

[Kon]

4 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

It's an Apple film so is doesn't count as a bomb? Idk maybe that's what I've heard

No. Even if we follow the logic that Apple only invest money on these movies due to the prestige, Argylle will still be a big failure with its poor reception.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-29 Thursday previews and T-25 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 173

New Sales: 3

Growth: 1.8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 9.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 130/9

Late Evening: 38/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 37/7

IMAX: 101/4

VIP: 31/5

4dx: 4/2

 

EA shows

 

329 tickets across 2 showings

 

The showtimes that disappeared, have reappeared, but there's been a shift of showtimes, with a new lste show added. And, some of its sales dropped off, even in the showings that didn't change.

 

Still, it's low growth, and likely bottom of the U as others have said.

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-28 Thursday previews and T-24 EA shows

 

Previews

Total Sales: 209

New Sales: 36

Growth: 21%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 18

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 11.6

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 153/9

Late Evening: 51/7

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 43/7

IMAX: 129/4

VIP: 33/5

4dx: 4/2

 

EA shows

 

335 tickets across 2 showings

 

Growth all comes from one of the IMAX screenings, and likely a big group sale. It's pushed that growth up.

 

Otherwise, not much to report.

[vafrow]

On 2/1/2024 at 6:24 AM, vafrow said:

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-14 (D3)

 

Previews

Total Sales: 38

New Sales: 12

Growth: 46%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.0

Thursday Sales: 12

Friday Sales: 20

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 5/2

Early Evening: 27/6

Late Evening: 6/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 16/5

IMAX: 22/7

VIP: 0/1

 

D3 Comps

1.000x Aquaman 2 for $4.5M

0.396 HG:BoSS for $2.3M

 

Avg: $3.4M

 

Decent growth again, and rose against comps.

 

I will probably switch over to T minus comps tomorrow or the weekend. I'm debating on whether to include The Marvels as a comp, but I'm pretty sure that 

 

I've added quick counts for Thursday and Friday shows for now while numbers are low and it's easy enough. It does show that drop off being dramatic.

 

Madame Web, western GTA (southern Ontario), Opening Day, T-14 (D3)

 

Previews

Total Sales: 45

New Sales: 7

Growth: 18%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 13

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 3.5

Thursday Sales: 19

Friday Sales: 23

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 0/1

Late Afternoon: 7/2

Early Evening: 32/6

Late Evening: 6/4

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 19/5

IMAX: 26/7

VIP: 0/1

 

T-13 Comps

2.045x Aquaman 2 for $9.2M

0.469x HG:BoSS for $2.7M

0.129x of The Marvels for $0.9M

Avg: $4.3M

 

Comps changed to T minus, so it's thrown numbers off. Aquaman was on D1 for this point, so that comp will come down to earth in the days ahead. Marvels was added, but very different groeth curves for the two, and I expect that you'll see that number rise steadily each day. Marvels was doing about 3-4% growth each day after it's early plateau until the final week.

 

Thursday and Friday sales went up in slightly higher proportion than Wednesday. Take that for what its worth.

[M37]

::reads over final Argylle updates::

 

On 1/29/2024 at 4:57 PM, M37 said:

With all of that said, not sure its a given that Argylle connects with the GA and sees strong walk-ups; its not the pure disposable action - famous actor kicks ass - flick like Beekeeper (which also was coming off the holidays, keeping early sales lower). I'm not yet seeing the $2.5M preview number that has been thrown out, think it comes in around (if not under) $2M

 

Was always a concern of mine that early sales were cinephile heavy, and when your audience pool is the less casual/more aware crowd, poor reviews are going to zap momentum much faster, particularly for the Thursday crowd

 

Though I'm not understanding the pessimism on the IM/OW, as the baseline for the Fall and Winter months is around ~10x, and this weekend there's no NFL football on Sunday for the first time since August (Pro Bowl does not count, sorry), so those daily holds should be better across the board. Worst case is probably something like Creator's $1.6M Thur --> $14M OW, but likely above that IMO, mid teens

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Arthur the King T-43: 32.85%

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire T-50: 43.91%

Civil War T-71: 24.7%

Abigail T-78: 24.03%

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare T-78: 15.42%

Inside Out 2 T-134: 49.15%

Blink Twice T-204: 13.67%

 

Argylle T-1: 36.81% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Medium Awareness: 47% chance of 10M

 

Lisa Frankenstein T-8: 29.83% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire T-57: 32.2% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 18% chance of 10M, 94% chance of 20M, 67% chance of 30M, 22% chance of 40M, 17% chance of 50M, 11% chance of 70M, 5% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 50M

[JimmyB]

3 hours ago, leoh said:

I think some factors are making Madame Web exceed expectations. First, it’s because we had low expectations (I was kinda trashing it before pre sales start ngl lol). Second , it is the lack of competition, Argylle could cause some problems on VDay week, but now we know it won’t. Lol Third, it is the WoM (this one we will only know when the move is released on Feb 14).

Im sorry, but where is Madame Web exceeding expectations? Yes, we all know you were trashing it before sales and said its doing well at AMC's in NYC but that's more a trust me bro and not based on actual data. Deadline tossed out 25m over 6 days January 25th.  None of the numbers posted are suggesting it'll do more.    

 

https://deadline.com/2024/01/bob-marley-one-love-madame-web-hope-to-bring-moviegoers-together-over-valentines-presidents-day-frame-with-at-least-25m-each-early-box-office-look-1235804733/#!

[Krissykins]

42 minutes ago, Eric Argylle said:

 

 

Lisa Frankenstein T-8: 29.83% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

What’s the betting this is people having heard of Frankenstein, rather than Lisa Frankenstein 😂

[TwoMisfits]

13 hours ago, joselowe said:

This is going to sound silly but I think once Zendaya and Timmy start promoting, it box office numbers will be a lot higher. These numbers currently are based off just the Dune fanbase, but Zendaya and Timmy are media darlings with huge fan bases and I'm sure the publicity of this will be amazing. 

 

I agree with you...and I think Shawn's floor is too low for both OW and overall...and his ceiling's not high enough.

 

I'd probably eat my shirt if Dune 2 came in at only $125M overall DOM - I mean, Aquaman 2 is gonna almost hit that.

 

Time for another crowd sourcing of your range, Shawn:)...

 

[vafrow]

34 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

What’s the betting this is people having heard of Frankenstein, rather than Lisa Frankenstein 😂

 

Ira also possible that people have heard about a movie with a more feminist twist on the Frankenstein story, and are confusing this with Poor Things.

[leoh]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I agree with you...and I think Shawn's floor is too low for both OW and overall...and his ceiling's not high enough.

 

I'd probably eat my shirt if Dune 2 came in at only $125M overall DOM - I mean, Aquaman 2 is gonna almost hit that.

 

Time for another crowd sourcing of your range, Shawn:)...

 

I think Shawn Robbins (125M to 195M) may be considering the competition Dune will have. March is packed with major releases.

 

In It’s second week Dune will have to face King Fu Panda (which is a quite popular franchise among adults as well). In the 3rd week, Mark Wahlberg‘s Arthur the King. In the 4th week there’s Ghostbusters. And in the 5th Dune will have to face Godzilla X Kong.

 

I guess this is the reason why Box Office Pro is not projecting big legs for Dune, and so not a higher celling for Dune as well. 

Edited February 2 by leoh

[Last Man Standing]

6 minutes ago, leoh said:

In the 3rd week, Mark Wahlberg‘s Arthur the King. 

 

[Shawn Robbins]

17 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

@Shawn Robbins is being conservative about Dune 2 and that is ok. I think once the reviews are out and closer to release, regular shows will fill up. Oppenheimer went through the same. initial sales were all Imax/70mm. 

 

I'd caution against using Oppenheimer as a direct line comp for Dune 2. Two very different circumstances. And I wouldn't consider $75M/~$200M domestic "conservative". That would be a terrific result, and honestly above where a fair amount of data suggests it will probably go at the moment.

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

Box Office: ‘Argylle’ Makes $1.7 Million in Previews (Variety)

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-argylle-previews-1235892130/

[M37]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I agree with you...and I think Shawn's floor is too low for both OW and overall...and his ceiling's not high enough.

 

I'd probably eat my shirt if Dune 2 came in at only $125M overall DOM - I mean, Aquaman 2 is gonna almost hit that.

 

Time for another crowd sourcing of your range, Shawn:)...

 

Aquaman is only going to get there thanks to the benefit of the holidays and lack of male-skewing competition, but yeah, $125M is probably a tad too low, given the March Multiplier Math I worked out in the Dune thread. But given how fan/PLF heavy the sales are skewing thusfar, a ~$50M OW and $140M+ total is not an unreasonable floor

 

Thinking of a range more like $150-$210M, around Creed III to slightly better than John Wick 4 (though just to reiterate, I do not like those films as comps for presale tracking, only OW/legs)

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I agree with you...and I think Shawn's floor is too low for both OW and overall...and his ceiling's not high enough.

 

I'd probably eat my shirt if Dune 2 came in at only $125M overall DOM - I mean, Aquaman 2 is gonna almost hit that.

 

Time for another crowd sourcing of your range, Shawn:)...

 

Based on what?

 

Replied to the wrong message (even though it could still apply), but re: in bold... What makes you think it isn't already?

[M37]

11 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Argylle MTC1

Previews Final - 38448/334281 691626.42 1680 shows +13697

Friday - 34461/652696 597493.71 3270 shows +8702

 

I think previews should be close to 2m based on this but could fall slightly short(1.9m ish). Thinking low teens now for OW 😞 

11 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

Box Office: ‘Argylle’ Makes $1.7 Million in Previews (Variety)

https://variety.com/2024/film/box-office/box-office-argylle-previews-1235892130/

 

Well that's a dreadful PSM from MTC1 data, only $44/tix - way below even Marvels at $49/tix -  which means this is only playing well in big metros (unless there were weather or other impacts I'm not aware of)

 

Keyser, if you have it handy, what was The Creator final sales for previews? [Though IIRC that may have had EA shows too]