The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[TheFlatLannister]

24 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

you are projecting that just by looking at preview info?

More of a prediction than a definite projection. Just feel like $10M previews is where it's headed and with a 7.5x IM it falls short of $80M OW

[von Kenni]

What's your estimate on Dune's IM currently based on MTC numbers @keysersoze123?

 

Is it closer to 8 and can it even be above that?

[charlie Jatinder]

Dune Early Shows in Canada

 

Cineplex - 6165/7837 on 24 shows

Landmark - 1185/1419 on 5 shows

Independent - 388/395 on 2 showx

 

These are what I know. May be missing some independent. 7.7K ish seat sold so far, will probably add another 1K for 9K+ final aka $170K.

 

Edit: There are Mega-plex cinemas in Quebec. They don't have reserved seating so can't say. Take $200K Canada I guess.

Edited February 23 by charlie Jatinder

[dallas]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

More of a prediction than a definite projection. Just feel like $10M previews is where it's headed and with a 7.5x IM it falls short of $80M OW

$10.5M previews coupled with a 7.5x IM and roughly $2M from EA gets it past $80M. 

[Porthos]

I see we're getting close to the "nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs" stage of pre-release discussion.

 

Look, as someone who has pulled back a bit from their optimism the real tell isn't until T-4 or T-3 when the GA really starts to pay attention.  Right now we're still somewhat in tea leaf reading mode.

 

Dialing back expectations isn't a bad thing (as @M37 has been trying to do this entire pre-sale run).  At the same time, we won't really have a great sense of the final flight path until next Monday.  And even then, still room for surprises, as TGM showed*.

* Thought not in Sacramento and Denver. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Dune is behaving totally as expected. There is no surprises till now, hopefully stays same way.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

Arthur the King T-22: 31.62%

Immaculate T-29: 22.32%

Civil War T-50: 25.36%

Back to Black T-85: 28.53%

The Garfield Movie T-92: 37.73%

 

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - To the Hashira Training T-1: 24.58% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Drive-Away Dolls T-1: 20.1% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Ordinary Angels T-1: 29.25% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

 

Dune: Part Two T-8: 60.36% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 90% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 75% chance of 50M, 65% chance of 60M, 50% chance of 70M, 35% chance of 100M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 60M, 43% chance of 70M, 29% chance of 100M

 

The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare T-57: 15.63% Awareness

T-60 Awareness: 33% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 27% chance of 10M

[dallas]

Dune: Part Two

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-7

Tickets Sold: 175 (+12)

Growth: 7%

% PLF: 47%

5 theaters/29 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.159x) of Aquaman 2 - $5.22 Million

(1.804x) of Madame Web - $10.91 Million

(8.333x) of Argylle - $14.17 Million

COMPS AVG - $10.10 Million

[emoviefan]

44 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I see we're getting close to the "nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs" stage of pre-release discussion.

 

Look, as someone who has pulled back a bit from their optimism the real tell isn't until T-4 or T-3 when the GA really starts to pay attention.  Right now we're still somewhat in tea leaf reading mode.

 

Dialing back expectations isn't a bad thing (as @M37 has been trying to do this entire pre-sale run).  At the same time, we won't really have a great sense of the final flight path until next Monday.  And even then, still room for surprises, as TGM showed*.

* Thought not in Sacramento and Denver. 

It feels like this will have a John Wick 4 opening. Just like that opening it will be pretty dam good but still seem kind of boring and unexciting in the end because it will play mostly to the core invested audience and not really explode much past that with the Casuals. No matter how good the buzz and reviews are why would you jump on now if you have not already. Would like to be surprised though. 

[DAJK]

Numbers for both non-Demon Slayer openers are so low that it’s hard to make any relevant prediction based on only a handful of select theaters. But if I had to guess, Ordinary Angels is doubling Drive Away Dolls by a healthy margin. Might go with  700-750k for Angels, and 300-350k for Dolls.

[leoh]

17 hours ago, Porthos said:

First showtimes for Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire are now up (though not for sale yet).

 

...

 

Any one want to guess the start time for previews?

 

...

 

C'mon. you know you wanna!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, as part of my running this bit into the ground, we have another 2pm Previews entry.  "Yay."

 

cool!!!!!

 

@Shawn Robbins is seeing it getting ~150M domestically and a possible better run than GxK. I think this is possible, G and K movies weren’t ever a big deal in the US, it’s more of an international thing. 

 

any idea when pre sales start?

Edited February 23 by leoh

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/18/2024 at 11:27 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	16	74	10441	0.71

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		4	0	5.41
MTC1:		53	10	71.62
Marcus:		7	3	9.46
Alamo:		5	0	6.76
Other chains:		9	3	12.16

 

Comps:

0.47x Wonka: $1.64 Million

0.56x Wish (w/ EA): $1.28 Million

0.59x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $1.84 Million

0.33x TMNT (w/ EA): $1.8 Million

 

Average: $1.64 Million

 

Running with these comps until the week of release, where I'll add Trolls and maybe Migration

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 18 theaters	72	30	104	10441	1

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		6	2	5.77
MTC1:		69	16	66.35
Marcus:		9	2	8.65
Alamo:		5	0	4.81
Other chains:		21	12	20.19

 

Comps:

0.54x Wonka: $1.9 Million

0.59x Wish (w/ EA): $1.36 Million

0.65x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $2.02 Million

0.31x TMNT (w/ EA): $1.69 Million

 

Average: $1.74 Million

 

Slowly rising against comps.

[ando]

Dune: Part Two

 

Toronto Scotiabank Theatre (IMAX screen only)

 

Another 110 tickets sold in the past 24 hrs. 3675 sold for the IMAX screen for opening weekend.  60% sold out in total for the wknd. 

 

Thu- 738

Fri- 940

Sat- 1080

Sun- 917

 

Looks like $87100 CAD for IMAX OW and EA so far. Should push past $100k before OD for sure. 

[abracadabra1998]

On 2/18/2024 at 11:35 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-7	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 17 theaters	79	309	2147	15535	13.82
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	59	794	1082	73.38
TOTALS:	83	368	2941	16617	17.7

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		1908	267	88.87
MTC1:		1134	136	52.82
Marcus:		219	27	10.2
Alamo:		315	42	14.67
Other chains:		479	104	22.31

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.42x Oppy: $14.96 Million

2.08x The Marvels: $13.73 Million

2.01x MI7 (w/ EA): $18.11 Million

2.59x Indy: $18.69 Million

0.8x Barbie (w/ EA): $17.88 Million

 

Average: $16.67 Million

 

This is still running really hot here, probably catching the later wave of those social media reactions in these last three days. Oppy and Barbie comps will be going down for sure, as will the Marvels comp be going up. The others... we shall see.

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-7):

Day: T-11, T-7	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 18 theaters	85	522	2669	16811	15.88
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	153	947	1082	87.52
TOTALS:	89	675	3616	17893	20.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2343	435	87.79
MTC1:		1326	192	49.68
Marcus:		280	61	10.49
Alamo:		355	40	13.3
Other chains:		708	229	26.53

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.26x Oppy: $13.21 Million

2.15x The Marvels: $14.18 Million

2x MI7 (w/ EA): $17.97 Million

0.67x Barbie (w/ EA): $14.91 Million

 

Average: $15.07 Million

 

Even as it's cooling down in this market, still running ahead of most other places. Indy comp just didn't make sense so I took that out.

[misterpepp]

One Life tix on sale tomorrow.

[misterpepp]

29 minutes ago, leoh said:

any idea when pre sales start?

 

Feb 29 for Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire tix

[TheFlatLannister]

29 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-7):

Day: T-11, T-7	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 18 theaters	85	522	2669	16811	15.88
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters	4	153	947	1082	87.52
TOTALS:	89	675	3616	17893	20.21

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		2343	435	87.79
MTC1:		1326	192	49.68
Marcus:		280	61	10.49
Alamo:		355	40	13.3
Other chains:		708	229	26.53

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.26x Oppy: $13.21 Million

2.15x The Marvels: $14.18 Million

2x MI7 (w/ EA): $17.97 Million

0.67x Barbie (w/ EA): $14.91 Million

 

Average: $15.07 Million

 

Even as it's cooling down in this market, still running ahead of most other places. Indy comp just didn't make sense so I took that out.

The Mi7 comp is probably throwing this off. Does your Barbie number include EA? Excluding EA would probably be best. 

Also, maybe try replacing The Marvels with a better received CBM like ATSV or GOTG if you have it. 

[VanillaSkies]

2 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune Early Shows in Canada

 

Cineplex - 6165/7837 on 24 shows

Landmark - 1185/1419 on 5 shows

Independent - 388/395 on 2 showx

 

These are what I know. May be missing some independent. 7.7K ish seat sold so far, will probably add another 1K for 9K+ final aka $170K.

 

Edit: There are Mega-plex cinemas in Quebec. They don't have reserved seating so can't say. Take $200K Canada I guess.

I am one of those Cineplex tickets

[Issac Newton]

Box Office Report Prediction

 

Rank	Film (Distributor)	Weekend Gross	Total Gross	% Change	Week #
1	Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount)	$17.0 M	$74.8 M	-41%	2
2	Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba - To the Hashira Training (Sony / Crunchyroll)	$11.3 M	$11.3 M	NEW	1
3	Ordinary Angels (Lionsgate)	$5.9 M	$5.9 M	NEW	1
4	Madame Web (Sony / Columbia)	$5.8 M	$35.2 M	-62%	2
5	Argylle (Universal / Apple)	$3.4 M	$42.3 M	-30%	4
6	Migration (Universal)	$3.3 M	$120.8 M	-14%	10
7	Drive-Away Dolls (Focus)	$3.1 M	$3.1 M	NEW	1
8	Wonka (Warner Bros.)	$2.7 M	$214.7 M	-23%	11
9	The Beekeeper (Amazon MGM Studios)	$2.3 M	$63.5 M	-28%	7
10	The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4 - 6 (Fathom Events)	$1.8 M	$7.9 M	-50%	2

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

  

 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 35263/55706 692582.57 182 shows +2506

Previews(T-8) - 69879/546226 1363644.83 2756 shows +3908

Friday - 71424/800415 1385392.40 4034 shows +5215

Saturday - 73645/842246 1366513.83 4247 shows +5115

 

Good day overall. 

 

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows(2/25) - 37886/55706 741067.76 182 shows +2623

Previews(T-7) - 73605/549587 1431062.97 2772 shows +3726

Friday - 76594/802204 1479210.24 4042 shows +5170

Saturday - 78717/844114 1454411.87 4255 shows +5072

 

Just Ok after the day with review boost. Sunday early shows are definitely taking away some of the pace from previews.