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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

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45 minutes ago, misterpepp said:

My reliable go-to guy says Interstellar will be getting a re-release this summer (although could be as late as September), with at least IMAX on board.

 

Additional aside, you can now buy concessions on Fandango starting today.

Oh man, I'm hoping it happens before I leave the Bay. There was a private screening at the SF AMC last year but it was just IMAX digital. Really want to watch it on 70mm. I think it's sad that WB didn't bother re-releasing TDKR btw. Would kill to watch that opening scene in IMAX

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22 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

@M37 It's going to be tight, but I think you're right. 5K threshold seems likely assuming Dune can sell 1k seats in the final day.

Based on the Aquaman/FNAF/Mermaid growth path Dune has been tracking the last few days, would expect 4300-4400 at T-1, and only 6-700 tickets needed on the final day to get to 5K+

 

To keep on that approximate trajectory:

  • T-3 = ~3300 (+300)
  • T-2 = ~3750 (+450)
  • T-1 = ~4350 (+600)
  • T-0 = ~5250 (+900)

Will be good to gauge the daily over/under, and won't even be surprised actual sales trend a bit higher. But think the bigger problem is going to be the PSM probably ends up on the lower side of the range, even with a higher, PLF-driven, ATP

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On 2/25/2024 at 7:37 AM, TwoMisfits said:

 

JW4 has strong "walk ups" from $5 deal users. It's why it's also a bad comp.  Walk ups for movies that appeal to $5 goers (which something like Margaret last year did not), always have better "walk ups" than similar movies due to the "$5, what the hell" eventual factor...you can buy your ticket literally 10-15 minutes after movie showing start with the deal...and most trackers stop tracking at 1st preview movie showing of the day...so you miss all those late online, but not presale, buyers...not true walk ups, but in walk ups.

That may be true for that specific film, but I only chose it because it was a March release. Could easily sub out any number of GA-friendlier titles without a $5 deal and the overall point would stand

 

On 2/25/2024 at 7:34 AM, TwoMisfits said:

 

Aquaman 2 is a bad comp. It did not have all PLF - it had to split normal PLF with Wonka and even gave Screen X to Migration.

 

So, the average ticket price is just not gonna compare, even if overall ticket sales do.

The catch-22 is that films that tend to have a very strong PLF draw also tend to over-index in bigger markets broadly. So yes you get the higher ATP in said big markets, but lower numbers in the smaller markets, which drags down the PSM ratio; getting a larger slice of a smaller pie overall

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3 minutes ago, M37 said:

That may be true for that specific film, but I only chose it because it was a March release. Could easily sub out any number of GA-friendlier titles without a $5 deal and the overall point would stand

 

The catch-22 is that films that tend to have a very strong PLF draw also tend to over-index in bigger markets broadly. So yes you get the higher ATP in said big markets, but lower numbers in the smaller markets, which drags down the PSM ratio; getting a larger slice of a smaller pie overall

 

But is that gonna be true here?  Usually it's b/c middle America won't come out for a movie at the numbers cities will...but I don't think that's the case here.  I see Dune playing coast to coast, and if anything, struggling in some non-auteur loving cities.

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16 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune 2 MTC1

Early Shows Final - 47397/55706 914581.85 182 shows +3634

Previews(T-4) - 86404/554093 1659675.30 2814 shows +6180

Friday - 98029/808399 1860059.53 4083 shows +9685

Saturday - 102841/849882 1862895.15 4296 shows +10678

 

~2m ish early BO as expected. Not sure if studio would even separate it out or add it to previews or even just friday BO as some studios have done. Anyway headwind for thursday ticket sales is gone and I am expecting big acceleration tomorrow with double boost coming from early WOM from fan screenings. 

 

Based on saturday number and pace and expected show times, I am expecting 30m+ BO that day. Let us see how presales go next 2 days to confirm my expectations 🙂 

 

I am chewing on where Dune 2 will end up for thursday. 

 

Monday - 12K // Preview PS was depressed due to Sunday shows. 

Tuesday - 15K

Wednesday - 18K

Thursday - 65k

 

i see it close around 200K for around 11m Thursday gross and around 13m overall if WB choose to club the Sunday BO with thursday previews. . For those comparing this movie with any other movie not named Avatar, it will have higher ATP than most movies. Even Oppenheimer did not have all PLF to get its ATP as high as possible. I would give it a 10% boost with all other movies. if you are comparing with family movies the ATP differential would be even higher. Something like Freddys will need to be boosted by 20%+.

 

Today's update will confirm if I am way off or not. 

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16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD
1297 73 1353 95.86%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 662 2092 31.64%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total 617 2137 28.87%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
3165 163 20902 15.14% 13 107

 

0.854 Guardians T-4 14.95M
0.728 Avatar 2 T-4 12.38M
0.474 Thor L&T T-4 13.74M
0.884 Batman T-4* 19.10M
1.992 Dune Part 1 T-4 10.16M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

 

Numbers are from earlier today when I usually count, just didn't have time to post.

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD
1297 1353 95.86%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 753 2092 35.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

 

Total 660 2137 30.88%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
3643 478 21212 17.17% 13 110

 

1.182 Oppenheimer T-3 12.41M
0.896 Guardians T-3 15.69M
0.743 Ant-Man 3 T-3 13.01M
0.727 Avatar 2 T-3 12.35M
0.505 Thor L&T T-3 14.65M
0.337 Doctor Strange 2 T-3 12.13M
0.903 Batman T-3* 19.50M
2.064 Dune Part 1 T-3 10.53M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

 

Big jump in sales, over double yesterday's sales.

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2 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD
1297 1353 95.86%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 753 2092 35.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

 

Total 660 2137 30.88%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
3643 478 21212 17.17% 13 110

 

1.182 Oppenheimer T-3 12.41M
0.896 Guardians T-3 15.69M
0.743 Ant-Man 3 T-3 13.01M
0.727 Avatar 2 T-3 12.35M
0.505 Thor L&T T-3 14.65M
0.337 Doctor Strange 2 T-3 12.13M
0.903 Batman T-3* 19.50M
2.064 Dune Part 1 T-3 10.53M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

 

Big jump in sales, over double yesterday's sales.

Baby Laughing GIF

 

 

4 minutes ago, rehpyc said:

04f.gif_c200

 

Tonight. Someone feel free to PM me comps.

 

Awesome. 

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16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-4 Thursday 206 Showings 12273 +499 29019 ATP: 17.72
0.974 Guardians T-4 17.04M
1.668 Avatar T-4 28.36M
0.725 Thor L&T T-4 21.03M
0.959 Batman T-4* 16.89M
3.021 Dune Part 1 T-4 15.41M

*Doesn't include Batman EA sales I missed

 

T-5 Friday 272 Showings 14403 +709 39549 ATP: 17.38
1.223 Guardians T-5 37.44M
1.493 Avatar T-5 54.03M
0.999 Thor L&T T-5 40.53M
1.065 Batman T-5 37.37M
2.655 Dune Part 1 T-5 32.93M

 

T-6 Saturday 281 Showings 16895 +859 40918 ATP: 16.88
1.271 Guardians T-6 49.42M
1.579 Avatar T-6 70.00M
1.230 Thor L&T T-6 51.80M
1.186 Batman T-6 51.32M
3.195 Dune Part 1 T-6 43.83M

 

T-7 Sunday 253 Showings 11702 +704 36644 ATP: 16.89
1.555 Guardians T-7 48.86M
1.668 Avatar T-7 61.00M
1.481 Thor L&T T-7 48.14M
1.691 Batman T-7 57.74M
3.250 Dune Part 1 T-7 31.78M

Alamo Drafthouse Dune Part 2

T-3 Thursday 277 Showings 13215 +942 35077 ATP: 17.64
0.661 Barbie T-3 14.74M
1.680 Oppenheimer T-3 17.64M
0.964 Guardians T-3 16.87M
1.513 Avatar T-3 25.73M
0.741 Thor L&T T-3 21.49M
0.570 Doctor Strange 2 T-3 20.52M
0.946 Batman T-3 16.66M

 

T-4 Friday 409 Showings 15703 +1300 51143 ATP: 17.23
0.679 Barbie T-4 32.72M
1.520 Oppenheimer T-4 34.22M
1.172 Guardians T-4 35.86M
1.390 Avatar T-4 50.33M
1.001 Thor L&T T-4 40.60M
0.709 Doctor Strange 2 T-4 38.82M
1.030 Batman T-4 36.12M

 

T-5 Saturday 424 Showings 18377 +1482 52509 ATP: 16.80
0.768 Barbie T-5 36.72M
1.499 Oppenheimer T-5 39.80M
1.230 Guardians T-5 47.82M
1.494 Avatar T-5 66.21M
1.259 Thor L&T T-5 53.03M
0.781 Doctor Strange 2 T-5 45.13M
1.132 Batman T-5 48.97M

 

T-6 Sunday 376 Showings 12865 +1163 46609 ATP: 16.79
0.698 Barbie T-6 30.49M
1.471 Oppenheimer T-6 34.10M
1.465 Guardians T-6 46.05M
1.553 Avatar T-6 56.79M
1.454 Thor L&T T-6 47.26M
0.940 Doctor Strange 2 T-6 36.55M
1.545 Batman T-6 52.73M
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16 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-4 Thursday 109 Showings 2326 +174 18363

 

T-5 Friday 167 Showings 3666 +448 28551

 

T-6 Saturday 172 Showings 3626 +513 29564

 

T-7 Sunday 176 Showings 1680 +311 29331

Emagine Entertainment Dune Part 2

T-3 Thursday 109 Showings 2784 +458 18384
0.845 Oppenheimer T-3 8.87M

 

T-4 Friday 167 Showings 4312 +646 28579
0.917 Oppenheimer T-4 20.65M

 

T-5 Saturday 172 Showings 4477 +851 29588
1.205 Oppenheimer T-5 31.64M

 

T-6 Sunday 177 Showings 2130 +450 29222
1.043 Oppenheimer T-6 24.19M
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On 2/25/2024 at 12:49 PM, jeffthehat said:

 

Malco

Dune: Part Two

  Day     T-Release      Sales     Seats     Shows     Growth  
  Thu   T-4   1217   11158     62    +5.8%
  Fri   T-5   1735   22550   132   +7.4%

Thursday Comps

1.73x The Marvels T-4 = $11.4m

1.98x HG BoSS T-4 = $11.4m

3.76x Wonka T-4 = $13.2m

Friday Comps

2.26x The Marvels T-5 = $33.8m

2.46x HG BoSS T-5 = $32.6m

Malco

Dune: Part Two

  Day     T-Release      Sales     Seats     Shows     Growth  
  Thu   T-3   1439   11158     62    +18.2%
  Fri   T-4   2050   22550   132   +18.1%

Thursday Comps

1.94x The Marvels T-3 = $12.8m

2.05x HG BoSS T-3 = $11.8m

Friday Comps

2.51x The Marvels T-4 = $37.6m

2.62x HG BoSS T-4 = $34.7m

---

Had errands this morning so pulled about 5 hours later than yesterday (10 am vs. 3pm). Huge jump in sales but can't tell how much of that was from this afternoon. 

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41 minutes ago, M37 said:

That may be true for that specific film, but I only chose it because it was a March release. Could easily sub out any number of GA-friendlier titles without a $5 deal and the overall point would stand

 

The catch-22 is that films that tend to have a very strong PLF draw also tend to over-index in bigger markets broadly. So yes you get the higher ATP in said big markets, but lower numbers in the smaller markets, which drags down the PSM ratio; getting a larger slice of a smaller pie overall

 

35 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

But is that gonna be true here?  Usually it's b/c middle America won't come out for a movie at the numbers cities will...but I don't think that's the case here.  I see Dune playing coast to coast, and if anything, struggling in some non-auteur loving cities.

 

FWIW, the internal sales pattern in the Sacto region is broadly similar to those that skew pretty strongly urban in that it isn't playing all that strongly in the exurbs.  Yet.

 

Now the catch here is that there aren't all that many PLF screens in the outlying regions.  There are two that I use as benchmarks of a sort and it's kinda a split decision with the one with the IMAX screen on Thr doing brisk business and the one with a more generic PLF screen doing fairly light business.  

 

On the other hand even in the more city based regions of the area, only in the last few days have the non-PLF showings been seeing much movement.  But they have seen movement the last few days.  

 

In fact the more I think about it, combined with the observation that only in the last few days have I seen appreciable movement in the non-PLF showings, the more I think that the PLF screens were acting as a magnet and drawing out folks who were willing to drive/travel an extra 20 to 30 minutes to see this on the best screens.  Thus a plausible explanation for some of the softness I've seen internally for some theaters locally.

 

For instance one theater in the suburbs has a PLF screen (as well as DBOX seats) and a rival chain about two miles way has neither of them.  It's no surprise, I think, that the PLF theater has over five times as many tickets sold as the other non-PLF theater (157 vs 29) and it's only in the last few days that the second theater has seen much movement at all.

 

Thus something similar might play out in Middle America as the IMAX/XD/PLFs screens act as something of a magnet for a decent amount of acreage while leaving other theaters in those areas a bit more in the lurch.

 

As we get closer to release and get more GA-skewed ticket buyers they're the ones who might not care as much about seeing D2 on the best screen possible, will folks turn out those other theaters?  Well, that's one of the things I'll be looking for over the next three/four days.  As said, I'm seeing some small amounts of movement there, but I want to see just how the patterns move before really reaching any final conclusions here, especially about a mooted Big City/Middle America split.

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On 2/20/2024 at 7:36 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-16

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

481

1269

94184

1.3%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-16

86

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-16

6

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

307

 

COMPS 

T-16

 

(1.013x) of Trolls 3 $1.32M

(1.448x) of Migration $2.17M

 

COMP AVG: $1.75M

 

Increased ever so slightly 

FLORIDA 

 

KUNG FU PANDA 4

 

Thursday

 

T-10

SHOWINGS

SEATS SOLD

TOTAL SEATS

PERCENT SOLD

486

1665

95176

1.7%

*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST

SEATS SOLD SINCE T-16

396

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE T-16

5

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

Orlando

SEATS SOLD

404

 

COMPS 

T-10

 

(1.151x) of Trolls 3 $1.50M

(0.751x) of Elemental $1.80M

(1.629x) of Migration $2.44M

 

COMP AVG: $1.91M

 

Nice increase in pace, but still pretty low numbers overall. 

Edited by TheFlatLannister
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52 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

Dune Part 2 Denver Showings

Early Access:

SEATS SOLD TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD
1297 1353 95.86%

 

Thursday Previews

AMC Westminster 24

Total 753 2092 35.99%

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

 

Total 660 2137 30.88%

 

SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
3643 478 21212 17.17% 13 110

 

1.182 Oppenheimer T-3 12.41M
0.896 Guardians T-3 15.69M
0.743 Ant-Man 3 T-3 13.01M
0.727 Avatar 2 T-3 12.35M
0.505 Thor L&T T-3 14.65M
0.337 Doctor Strange 2 T-3 12.13M
0.903 Batman T-3* 19.50M
2.064 Dune Part 1 T-3 10.53M

*Includes EA sales, all other comps Thursday previews only

 

Big jump in sales, over double yesterday's sales.

 

Am I seeing right that it practically tripled its ticket sales from 163 to 478! for Thu previews in one day?

 

Without knowing how to put it in exact context it looks great and now waiting if others follow a similar pattern.

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11 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Dune Part 2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-4 Thursday previews

 

Previews

Total Sales: 810

New Sales: 98

Growth: 13.8%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 44

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 18.4

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 23/11

Early Evening: 556/21

Late Evening: 231/12

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 202/8

IMAX: 389/4

VIP: 185/12

Regular: 17/21

4dx: 17/2

 

Comps (no EA)

1.561of Marvels for $10.3M

2.765 of HG: BoSS for $15.9M

 

Best growth day outside the first week. Not particularly close either. The Marvels comp now firmly above $10M.

 

I'm guessing getting past the EA shows means the previews are grabbing more of the demand. Although, it's worth noting that the breakdown of sales is starting to tilt away from being IMAX focused, and some of the recently added showtimes are grabbing some sales, so there's less fully empty showings.

 

I was playing around with some numbers today after some of the discussion about IMAX screens in Canada. I believe the estimate for EA shows was 40 IMAX screens in Canada.

 

Per a press release from last summer, there's 29 IMAX screens within the MTC4 chain. The other 11 must be in other chains (I know Landmark Cinemas has some up here).

 

Then looking at my sample, which is exclusive to MTC4, my 5 theatre sample overrepresents the IMAX screens. I have about 6% of the chains screens, in a sample of 3% of total locations. I'm in a bigger city, so it's not too surprising, but, it's probably enough to skew results since I'm comping against films that don't have as big as an IMAX demand.

 

Where my Marvels comp was giving $10.3M, a comparison of just non imax sales gets me to $7.3M. HG:BoSS goes from $15.9M to $10.0M.

 

That's obviously not a more accurate measure, but indicates the level of skew. Ideally, I'll have more diverse comps in the future.

 

In the meantime, it's only worth noting the skew. At minimum, I don't feel the need to adjust for the likely higher ATP.

 

Anyways, just some musings.

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17 minutes ago, von Kenni said:

 

Am I seeing right that it practically tripled its ticket sales from 163 to 478! for Thu previews in one day?

 

Without knowing how to put it in exact context it looks great and now waiting if others follow a similar pattern.

Yes, but not really because of Sunday early access. If you add the sales from early access (73), the jump was really 236 to 478.

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On 2/25/2024 at 4:49 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-4):

Day: T-4, T-1 hour Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Thursday: 18 theaters 86 474 3143 17059 18.42
Sunday Feb 25 EA: 4 theaters 4 108 1055 1082 97.5
TOTALS: 90 582 4198 18141 23.14

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 2748 405 87.43
MTC1: 1521 195 48.39
Marcus: 333 53 10.59
Alamo: 399 44 12.69
Other chains: 890 182 28.32

(Chart is Thursday tickets only)

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.17x Oppy: $12.24 Million

2.27x The Marvels: $14.96 Million

1.62x MI7 (w/ EA): $14.6 Million

0.62x Barbie (w/ EA): $13.72 Million

 

Average: $13.88 Million

 

@TheFlatLannister I have been super busy so I wasn't able to answer your post, but basically The Marvels is the only MCU movie I have, no ATSV or anything else :( I know it's not a good comp, but I have a serious dearth of good ones. Oppy expectedly dropping, I think the comp value will be under $10 Million at T-1.

 

As to the big city problem that @M37 has mentioned, I definitely agree. My market consistently overperforms for cinephile/ younger-skewing titles (KoFM, Dune, Hunger Games etc.). I am planning on expanding a bit of the theaters I track to include some greater Minnesota (maybe Mankato, Rochester, Duluth, or at least greater metro area) to address this, but that is a summer project for me. Teaching is just too much at the moment and this is the most I can do :( 

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Dune Part 2 (T-3):

Day: T-3 Shows New Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 18 theaters 106 420 3563 19132 18.62

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 3033 285 85.12
MTC1: 1734 213 48.67
Marcus: 378 45 10.61
Alamo: 409 10 11.48
Other chains: 1042 152 29.25

 

Comps (Thursday only):

1.08x Oppy: $11.33 Million

2.3x The Marvels: $15.19 Million

1.65x MI7 (w/ EA): $14.87 Million

0.69x Barbie (switching to THU): $14.73 Million

 

Average: $14.03 Million

 

For sure not a bad update, kept pace with MI7, but still lost ground to Oppy and not seeing a huge bump like others seem to be seeing (but I am running ahead of others anyway). Thought I would give some context to how PLF-heavy this is; here are the % of tix solds that are PLF at T-3 for some other movies:

 

Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom- 75%

Hunger Games BoSS- 63%

The Marvels- 69%

Five Nights at Freddy's- 17% (lol)

 

Anyways, just wanted to illustrate that this is the heaviest PLF track I've had by far. Like @Porthos said, starting to see a bit of movement in non-PLF screens and theaters, as well as finally some expansions to accomodate for demand (Alamo, for example, is in dire need of adding more screens), which will surely help. We shall see how much

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On 2/25/2024 at 4:53 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Chosen S4, Eps 7-8 (T-4):

Day: T-4 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 14 theaters 26 178 178 2293 7.76

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 0 0 0
MTC1: 69 69 38.76
Marcus: 61 61 34.27
Alamo: 0 0 0
Other chains: 48 48 26.97

 

Comps:

0.85x Chosen S4, Eps 4-6: $660k

0.33x Chosen S4, Eps 1-3: $480k

1.05x After Death: $420k

1.38x The Shift: $515k

 

Average: $520k

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 and Imaginary updates later tonight!

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

The Chosen S4, Eps 7-8 (T-3):

Day: T-3 Shows New Seats Sold Seats % Sold
Totals: 14 theaters 27 19 197 2366 8.33

 

Type of tix: Total: New: Percentage:
PLFs: 0 0 0
MTC1: 84 15 42.64
Marcus: 63 2 31.98
Alamo: 0 0 0
Other chains: 50 2 25.38

 

Comps:

0.8x Chosen S4, Eps 4-6: $625k

0.33x Chosen S4, Eps 1-3: $470k

1.04x After Death: $415k

1.46x The Shift: $545k

 

Average: $515k

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