The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

9 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune had strong walkups over the weekend. Normally I would say you are right but movies in 2nd weekend tend to be slightly less presales driven. We will see for sure. 

Dune is MTC1 film. KFP is gonna underindex in MTC1.

[abracadabra1998]

4 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minneapolis-St. Paul Area Previews:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4 (T-1):

Day: T-1	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 20 theaters	153	216	754	19436	3.88

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		75	28	9.95
MTC1:		394	116	52.25
Marcus:		122	39	16.18
Alamo:		52	18	6.9
Other chains:		186	43	24.67

 

 

Growth Rate (%):
1-Day:	40.15
3-Day:	120.47

 

Comps (1-day and 3-day growth rates in parentheses):

1.21x Wonka: $4.25 Million (21%, 69%)

1.75x Wish (TUE): $3.15 Million (27%, 65%)

1.19x Haunted Mansion (w/ EA): $3.68 Million (47%, 115%)

2.58x Migration: $3.72 Million (30%, 145%)

2.92x Trolls (THU): $3.8 Million (30%, 101%)

 

Average: $3.72 Million

 

I figured out what happened with that one theater, they just hid the existing showtimes for a day when they added the new ones, so today's sales are inflated by 11 tickets (same with yesterday's being deflated by 11). If I adjust for that the one-day growth rate actually becomes 35%.

 

Still a super strong day, of course, but I have to note that the MTC1 % is way higher than Migration (34%), Trolls (30%), or Wish (31%). Much more akin to Wonka's (57%), which I still think indicates less family and more adult interest, which might not be the best for walk-ups.

 

Still, based on my numbers, let's go with $3.7 Million, +/- 0.3. Maybe too bullish looking at others' numbers, but I gotta agree with @Porthos's mindset: I'll stick to my own guns!

Something I neglected to include in my post, which on further though I probably should have, is that while public schools are not in spring break in the twin cities for the most part, the largest university in town (and state) is. Might just help explain why my numbers seem to be a bit larger than others, why it’s finishing stronger than in other samples, and also the MTC1 overindex compared to other animated comps.

 

Should have probably included that in my analysis and as a result my prediction would lower a bit, but too late, I’ll just…

 

[keysersoze123]

11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Dune is MTC1 film. KFP is gonna underindex in MTC1.

Dune under indexed compared to say Oppenheimer or say some DCEU Super hero movies. That said Panda should do that even more as its not Imax/PLF driven at all. 

[leoh]

12 minutes ago, dallas said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-15

Tickets Sold: 157 (+13)

Growth: 9%

% PLF: 47%

5 theaters/26 showtimes

 

Comps:

(1.331x) of Dune 2 - $12.38 Million

 

Still not much change, just seeing some really solid presales. Dune probably isn't the best comp but every other comp I have spits out to at least $20M+ which is completely unrealistic lol. But honestly I expected this to start to fizzle out as we got closer to release, but it keeps growing at a solid pace each day so I'm honestly not sure. 

it is not only you, this good and continues growth for Ghostbuster is also been reported by @TheFlatLannister and @abracadabra1998. Here in NY some theaters with PLFs halls have screenings almost sold out. 

[keysersoze123]

On 3/5/2024 at 9:11 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-2) - 22161/455754 331982.79 3137 shows +3581

Friday - 35874/792963 532176.58 5336 shows +8200

 

Weird that Tuesday growth was less than yesterday. Friday also went up pitifully(I expected 10K). Let us see where things are tomorrow. Now I am thinking 55K finish which mean be around ~3m previews (it will actually be lower but estimated higher).

 

Edit: Elemental comps put it at ~3.1m. its overall 28% ahead but daily pace is tad under 10% above that and so the comps will go down. 

Kung Fu Panda 4 MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 27688/456367 411864.48 3144 shows +5527

Friday - 47914/810715 708369.90 5454 shows +12040

 

Definite growth after the drop yesterday. Previews seem to close around ~ 50-53k. Probably around 700K at MTC1 if you discount for some kids tickets. Its going to under index at MTC1 but still dont see more than 3m in previews. Let us see how walkups go tomorrow. 

 

Friday also grew well. Probably looking 80K finish by the time shows start. If it doubles that we are looking at ~9m True Friday. Let us see if walkups are even better than that. Saturday is probably the key. Dune almost increased 40% last week and so have to say 15m saturday and 12m Sunday can happen unless Oscar have some impact. May be even 100% increase if that is possible for mid 40s OW. Let us wait and see. 

[HummingLemon496]

Panda over or under 50 OW?

[emoviefan]

Box office is fun to follow again. 

[Porthos]

21 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-2]

899/17963 (5.00% sold) [+164 tickets] [166 showtimes]

 

1.33581x Elemental at T-2                [3.21m]

----

0.59536x GBA at T-2                        [3.03m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.87879x Wonka at T-2                    [3.08m]
0.42891x  Sonic 2 at T-2                  [2.68m]
0.32882x Minons 2 at T-2                [3.53m]
1.11125x   Shazam 2 at T-2               [3.78m]
0.82251x Haunted Mansion at T-2  [2.55m]

 

===

 

Kinda stalled out today, locally.  Increased slightly on some comps, dropped slightly on others.  Don't know if it was a blip, lack of reviews being out, or just-one-of-those-things.  Not nearly as high on 3.5m as I was 24 hours ago.

 

Mind, Q&Ds are always a little squirrely, and I make absolutely no guarantees about them, especially 48 hours out, but... Yeah.  See what T-1 brings before I shore up any more thoughts.

 

Quick and Dirty Kung Fu Panda 4 Sacramento Report [T-1]

1259/20719 (6.08% sold) [+360 tickets] [187 showtimes]

 

 

1.28338x Elemental at T-1               [3.08m]
---

0.60529x GBA at T-1                        [3.08m] [adj'ed for ATP hikes since 2021]
0.99447x Wonka at T-1                    [3.48m]
0.43670x Sonic 2 at T-1                   [2.73m]
0.31318x Minons 2 at T-1                 [3.37m]
1.17774x Shazam 2 at T-1                 [4.00m]
0.88413x Haunted Mansion at T-1  [2.74m]

 

========

 

Quote

Mind, Q&Ds are always a little squirrely, and I make absolutely no guarantees about them, especially 48 hours out, but... Yeah.  See what T-1 brings before I shore up any more thoughts.

 

Yeahhhh, not liking what I'm seeing.  Not the best comps, no.  But falling against most of the ones already above 3.5m.

 

Broadly similar to what I remember seeing out of Florida from @TheFlatLannister and what both @el sid and @dallas were showing in their tracks.  Gun to my head, maaaaybe 3.2m.  Ish?  Probably has enough juice to pass 3m at least.  Beyond that?  Well, it's a Q&D so no Dark Magic on the line here.

 

Next, and final, update will be around 4:30pm PST, as I don't do mid-day updates for these sorts of tracks.

[Maaatt]

9 hours ago, Poseidon said:

I guess the Netflix Series made up for the big gap between movies. 

 

And still a thing: Families are desperate for new material. It's ridiculous, how Hollywood gave up on pretty much 2 quadrants, when they shipped kids movies and women material to Netflix. Not to mention, how a 4Q-Genre, comedy, was completely slaughtered and neglected.

 

I actually think the gap between films could be somewhat of a benefit here.  Sometimes you can see IP start to become tired and stale to the public and that leading to diminishing returns. Its not that the quality of the films necessarily has gone down, its just that they gradually start to lead to a build up of feelings among many of "been there, done that" and there's always something shiny and new and more exciting to capture the target audiences attention. But once you give that IP a good break from the popular culture and then it returns to the scene another powerful motivator/feeling can push viewers in the opposite direction and bring them back.. nostalgia. We've seen the studios really lean into the nostalgia play in the last decade and its often worked. Had Jurassic World arrived not long after Jurassic Park 3 it very likely would not of been the huge runaway success it became after a more then dozen year delay for instance.  Animated movies might be a bit different because they are so kids focused but I still think having a good amount of time between the last films is more a positive here. 

 

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Something I neglected to include in my post, which on further though I probably should have, is that while public schools are not in spring break in the twin cities for the most part, the largest university in town (and state) is. Might just help explain why my numbers seem to be a bit larger than others, why it’s finishing stronger than in other samples, and also the MTC1 overindex compared to other animated comps.

 

Should have probably included that in my analysis and as a result my prediction would lower a bit, but too late, I’ll just…

 

 

This is a very good point.  Spring Break is the most variable holiday/pseudo-holiday in the entire box office calendar (at least winter break only shifts by about a week/few days in either direction).  Even within a given market, can be variety, both from different K-12 school districts and from various colleges.

 

I haven't checked locally to see just what is out (I presume Not Much), but I have noted a slight uptick* in later showtimes that might be the college-age crowd going out for a fun time at the movies.  I don't think the KFP franchise has any sort of stoner following, but I could see a slight (and I do mean slight) uptick from the college going crowd, especially the ones right at the edge of the nostalgia curve.

* ie: any sales at all.

 

All of the above is to say I have noted groups of 10 or so ticket sale groups in the 9pm and later window, which is a little unusual for this type of film.  Not a huge amount of sales, no (I did mean it when I said slight).  But that there's any at all made me raise an eyebrow a tiny amount and file it away for future reference.

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-2 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 332

New Sales: 47

Growth: 16%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 19.5

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 11/2

Late Afternoon: 45/3

Early Evening: 158/6

Late Evening: 118/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 153/8
3D Regular:61/6
Dolby: 118/3

 

Comps

2.790x Wonka for $9.8M

1.425x Aquaman 2 for $6.4M

0.522x The Marvels for $3.4M

 

Okay day. I think yesterdays 40% jump was a bit of an outlier. Still, it's in a strong spot heading into the last day.

 

Kung Fu Panda 4, Western GTA (southern Ontario), T-1 Thursday previews

 

Total Sales: 421

New Sales: 89

Growth: 27%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 24.8

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Early Afternoon: 17/2

Late Afternoon: 57/3

Early Evening: 200/6

Late Evening: 147/6

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Regular: 192/8
3D Regular:83/6
Dolby: 146/3

 

Comps

2.406x Wonka for $8.4M

1.345x Aquaman 2 for $6.1M

0.580x The Marvels for $3.8M

Avg: $6.1M

 

Decent last day.

 

Due to lack of comps, it's hard to really evaluate what this is really telling us, as things are all over the map. 

 

My original assumption was that this was going to under index due to spring break starting here this weekend. I thought it would push sales to the weekend or next week. It seems to have done the opposite.

 

For a kids film, it's doing well for the late shows, so it's grabbing an older demographic. But, it's still going to have a much lower ATP than it's comps, possibly as much as 30% or so which brings it down to a more reasonable range.

[vafrow]

On 3/6/2024 at 5:07 AM, vafrow said:

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), D6, T-16, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 35

New Sales: 2

Growth: 6%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 27/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 26/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 6/2

 

D4 Comps

0.236x HG:BoSS for $1.4M

0.547x Madame Web for $3.3M 

0.432x Aquaman 2 for $1.9M

 

T-17 Comps

0.094x Dune 2 for $0.9M

0.111x The Marvels for $0.7M

3.182x Wonka for $11.1M

 

We're in a really slow stretch here. Hoping it picks up more next week.

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire, Western GTA (Southern Ontario), T-15, Thursday previews,

 

Total Sales: 35

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 4

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 2.7

Ticket premium in effect: Yes

 

Sales by timing (sales/showtimes)

Late Afternoon: 5/3

Early Evening: 27/5

Late Evening: 3/5

 

Sales by format (sales/showtimes)

Dolby: 26/10
IMAX:3/1
VIP: 6/2

 

T-15 Comps

0.745x HG:BoSS for $4.3M

1.346x Madame Web for $8.1M 

N/A for Aquaman 2

0.090x Dune 2 for $0.9M

0.106x The Marvels for $0.7M

2.059x Wonka for $7.2M

 

Zero sales today. I switched to T minus comps, but BoSS and Madame Web just started, so it's skewing quite a bit.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dune under indexed compared to say Oppenheimer or say some DCEU Super hero movies. That said Panda should do that even more as its not Imax/PLF driven at all. 

Dune under indexed only in context of full NA as Canada's share is bigger. Its ratio in MTC1 was higher than normal when you just look in term of US.

 

Normally MTC 1 be 24-25% of US on FRI. For Dune 2 it was 28%. 

 

Oppy was even higher though, at 29.5%, prob highest I have seen for normal film but that was due to smaller cinemas having capacity shortage due to clash. 

Edited March 7 by charlie Jatinder

[abracadabra1998]

4 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

This is a very good point.  Spring Break is the most variable holiday/pseudo-holiday in the entire box office calendar (at least winter break only shifts by about a week/few days in either direction).  Even within a given market, can be variety, both from different K-12 school districts and from various colleges.

 

I haven't checked locally to see just what is out (I presume Not Much), but I have noted a slight uptick* in later showtimes that might be the college-age crowd going out for a fun time at the movies.  I don't think the KFP franchise has any sort of stoner following, but I could see a slight (and I do mean slight) uptick from the college going crowd, especially the ones right at the edge of the nostalgia curve.

* ie: any sales at all.

 

All of the above is to say I have noted groups of 10 or so ticket sale groups in the 9pm and later window, which is a little unusual for this type of film.  Not a huge amount of sales, no (I did mean it when I said slight).  But that there's any at all made me raise an eyebrow a tiny amount and file it away for future reference.

Yep, exactly what you said in regards to the night and group sales. Also, I’ve noticed more singular ticket sales, also not super usual in family type movies. Does it matter a ton? Probably not. But in a movie with less volume pre-sales compared to say a blockbuster like Dune it can make a tad difference for sure 

[Minnale101]

I was looking at kung fu panda 3 box office dailies, it did 41 million opening weekend 

 

10.4 million Friday, 18 million Saturday and 12.6 million Sunday

 

i don’t think it had previews checking different sites 

 

so yeah kung fu panda 4 really will be dependent on Saturday increase 

[Jerri Blank-Diggler]

Fascinating forecasting/tracking weekend when the trades (and referenced rival distributors) are the ones beating the High OW drums for KFP4. The Wrap coming out with "at least $56 million" OW for KP4 and even daring to invoke the $60 million possibility is wild compared to the more cautious tracking-based forecast consensuses developing on here.

 

“Kung Fu Panda 4” is currently tracking to take the No.1 spot with an opening weekend of at least $56 million, with rival distributors saying the film has a chance to top $60 million. 

Article can be read without a paywall at https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/last-box-office-variety-promising-173000900.html

 

$3.2 M previews - $3.5 M previews would require IMs

       - between 16 and 17.5 to get to $56 M, and

       - between 17.1 and 18.75 to get to $60 M.

That's a lot of Skadoosh.

Edited March 7 by Jerri Blank-Diggler

[Minnale101]

3 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

Fascinating forecasting/tracking weekend when the trades (and referenced rival distributors) are the ones beating the High OW drums for KFP4. The Wrap coming out with "at least $56 million" OW for KP4 and even daring to invoke the $60 million possibility is wild compared to the more cautious tracking-based forecast consensuses developing on here.

 

“Kung Fu Panda 4” is currently tracking to take the No.1 spot with an opening weekend of at least $56 million, with rival distributors saying the film has a chance to top $60 million. 

Article can be read without a paywall at https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/last-box-office-variety-promising-173000900.html

 

$3.2 M previews - $3.5 M previews would require IMs

       - between 16 and 17.5 to get to $56 M, and

       - between 17.1 and 18.75 to get to $60 M.

That's a lot of Skadoosh.

Mannn I would have been happy with 40 million a week ago and that’s before I knew the budget was only 85 million 

 

are they counting WW, I don’t see 50 and definitely not 60 million possible domestically 

 

60 million would be kung fu panda 1 ow lol

[TwoMisfits]

20 minutes ago, Jerri Blank-Diggler said:

Fascinating forecasting/tracking weekend when the trades (and referenced rival distributors) are the ones beating the High OW drums for KFP4. The Wrap coming out with "at least $56 million" OW for KP4 and even daring to invoke the $60 million possibility is wild compared to the more cautious tracking-based forecast consensuses developing on here.

 

“Kung Fu Panda 4” is currently tracking to take the No.1 spot with an opening weekend of at least $56 million, with rival distributors saying the film has a chance to top $60 million. 

Article can be read without a paywall at https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/last-box-office-variety-promising-173000900.html

 

$3.2 M previews - $3.5 M previews would require IMs

       - between 16 and 17.5 to get to $56 M, and

       - between 17.1 and 18.75 to get to $60 M.

That's a lot of Skadoosh.

 

I feel like there's some hopecasting going on that family buying and attendance trends of early 2023 will repeat in early 2024 (aka the Mario spring break trend).  I mean, we have nothing to say they won't, b/c we have had so few animated movies.  Then again, we've had nothing to say they will.

[WebSurfer]

6 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Box office is fun to follow again. 

Heh, it's more up in the air than it used to be.

 

It feels like almost everything back in 2017-2019 was a guaranteed success.

[filmlover]

Kung Fu Panda 4's sales are just decent near me. Not indicating much of a $50M+ breakout.