The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[HummingLemon496]

https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/comments/1cz3h1j/domestic_bot_presale_tracking_may_23_bad_boys/

 

^^ This is for anybody who wants a summary of this thread

 

And by the way, it's not mine. It's from @BOfficeStats and holy shit, the effort that goes into these posts is actually insane.

[keysersoze123]

Garfield MTC1

Previews Final -  31571/385068 433079.14 2576 shows

Friday - 20936/604770 288957.36 4024 shows

 

Actually that is a great finish for this movie. Thinking 1.8m thursday and another 500K for early shows. I am expecting great walkups through the weekend and so low 30s 3 day and close to 40m until the memorial day. 

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, emoviefan said:

You just can't resist can you?

you can jab at this ridiculous thread for Zilla and Apes making less than 100m domestic. That was a huge fail for sure. So you must be happy he is against MI8. 

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

you can jab at this ridiculous thread for Zilla and Apes making less than 100m domestic. That was a huge fail for sure. So you must be happy he is against MI8. 

Yeah for sure. imagine they has bad right about those 2 movies not doing 100m +.  These last two months would be worse than they have been.

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Garfield MTC1

Previews Final -  31571/385068 433079.14 2576 shows

Friday - 20936/604770 288957.36 4024 shows

 

Actually that is a great finish for this movie. Thinking 1.8m thursday and another 500K for early shows. I am expecting great walkups through the weekend and so low 30s 3 day and close to 40m until the memorial day. 

I hope we can say the same about Furiosa.

[John2015]

3 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

I hope we can say the same about Furiosa.

I suspect Garfield may open higher than Furiosa.

[keysersoze123]

Furiosa MTC1

Previews Final -  72110/479551 1376960.96 2601 shows

Friday - 52265/802717 1010369.21 4425 shows

 

Not great finish but high ATP makes me think its going to hit 4m previews and probably close for OW(mid 30s till sunday and 40m+ till memorial day ) but I will bet on Furiosa squeaking through. Reception is good and I expect better walkups over the weekend.  

[emoviefan]

23 minutes ago, John2015 said:

I suspect Garfield may open higher than Furiosa.

yay....

[crazymoviekid]

On 5/22/2024 at 11:40 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Furiosa:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 18 Tickets

Theater 2: 22 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $3.45M

Civil War: $3.83M

Dune: Part II: $3.54M

Oppenheimer: $.94M

JW:C4: $2.07M

Avatar 2: $2.97M

Top Gun 2: $2.79M

 

Pretty steep drop. Looking more like $3M-$4M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 11 Tickets

Theater 2: 29 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $6.10M

Civil War: $11.73M

Dune: Part II: $3.41M

Oppenheimer: $1.27M

JW:C4: $3.85M

Avatar 2: $3.09M

Top Gun 2: $2.84M

 

Somehow still very mute. No way, but these comps are giving $5M.

Furiosa:

 

Final Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 20 Tickets

Theater 2: 34 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $2.67M

Civil War: $2.76M

Dune: Part II: $3.42M

Oppenheimer: $.89M

JW:C4: $2.09M

Avatar 2: $2.99M

Top Gun 2: $2.89M

 

Weak!! Where are the sales??? Ending around $2.75M-$3M unless it pulls a Dune

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 22 Tickets

Theater 2: 44 Tickets

 

KotPotA: $5.77M

Civil War: $11.88M

Dune: Part II: $3.51M

Oppenheimer: $1.44M

JW:C4: $4.25M

Avatar 2: $5.11M

Top Gun 2: $3.09M

 

Comps went up, but not enough to save whatever is going on here. Gonna be safe and say $6M+

[crazymoviekid]

On 5/22/2024 at 11:43 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Garfield: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 9 Tickets 

Theater 2: 2 Tickets

 

IF: $1.13M

KFP4: $1.05M

Trolls 3: $1.51M

TLM: $.46M

 

Fine day of sales, but still not recovering. Looking between $1M-$1.5M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 20 Tickets 

Theater 2: 10 Tickets

 

IF: $3.72M

KFP4: $3.19M

Trolls 3: $2.63M

TLM: $.97M

 

Much needed recovery day. Still a long way to go. $3M-$4M right now.

Garfield: 

 

Final Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 15 Tickets 

Theater 2: 11 Tickets

 

IF: $1.30M

KFP4: $1.34M

Trolls 3: $2.38M

TLM: $.74M

 

It recovered, but not enough to save itself. Unless it pulls a Trolls, we're sticking to $1.3M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 49 Tickets 
Theater 2: 29 Tickets

 

IF: $4.63M
KFP4: $5.11M
Trolls 3: $4.43M
TLM: $1.65M

 

Comps keep going up!!  Definitely between $4.5M-$5.5M.

[John2015]

 

[Krissykins]

Let’s hope walk ups and weekend multipliers are much better than those projections. 

[charlie Jatinder]

23 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-64 Days (3 days on sale)

 

Previews - 6477/83891 (318 showings) $98K

 

Comps

1.73x GoTG3 - $30.3M

1.20x Black Panther - $34.3M

0.86x Thor 4  - $25.5M

Deadpool & Wolverine MiniTC2 T-63 Days (4 days on sale)

 

Previews - 6768/83465 (318 showings) $101K

 

Comps

1.73x GoTG3 - $30.3M

1.20x Black Panther - $34.3M

0.86x Thor 4  - $25.5M

 

Nearly 300 sales day vs ~260 by Black Panther & ~200 of GOTG3. 

 

Another brilliant day. Given the length of sales window, comps be falling off but they have remained steady for first 4 days. 

[Rorschach]

On 5/23/2024 at 12:37 AM, Rorschach said:

Furiosa - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

4 IMAX showings: 32/1,552

4 XD showings: 44/952

8 2D showings: 24/808

Total: 100/3,312 (2.6% sold) [+15]

 

Comp:

Apes: $9.21 mil

 

Furiosa - Thursday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

4 IMAX showings: 44/1,552

4 XD showings: 51/952

8 2D showings: 35/808

Total: 130/3,312 (3.9% sold) [+30]

 

Comp:

Apes: $7.55 mil

 

If Charlie's $4 mil previews report holds up, then ~$8 mil for True Friday should be likely. ~$12 mil for the combined days.

 

On 5/23/2024 at 12:37 AM, Rorschach said:

Garfield - Wednesday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

2 3D showings: 14/156

13 2D showings: 36/1,274

Total: 50/1,430 (3.5% sold) [+10]

 

Comp:

IF: $3.71 mil

 

Garfield - Thursday Night Outlook

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday:

2 3D showings: 16/156

13 2D showings: 90/1,274

Total: 106/1,430 (7.4% sold) [+56]

 

Comp:

IF: $4.86 mil

 

Good bounce back from yesterday, though still barely doing over half of what IF did here last week. ~$5 mil for True Friday and ~$7.5mil for the combined days. 

Edited May 24 by Rorschach

[Porthos]

On 5/23/2024 at 1:07 AM, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-22 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23622	24051	429	1.78%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

22

 

T-22 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-22	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	171.60		34	250		0/73	11015/11265	2.22%		3951	10.86%		10.73m
Shaz 2	146.42		30	293		0/93	15247/15540	1.89%		1663	25.80%		4.98m
TLM	47.04		63	912		0/154	21736/22648	4.03%		6561	6.54%		4.85m
Barbie	36.64		89	1171		0/96	11461/12632	9.27%		12077	3.55%		8.28m
Wonka	310.87		7	138		0/112	19146/19284	0.72%		1975	21.72%		10.88m
Aqua 2	148.96		17	288		0/78	13672/13960	2.06%		2629	16.32%		6.70m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     104/10075  [1.03% sold]
Matinee:    41/2674  [1.53% | 9.56% of all tickets sold]
3D:            29/3852  [0.75% | 6.76% of all tickets sold]
PLF:    188/9686  [1.94% | 43.82% of all tickets sold]

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	153	23585	24051	466	1.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

37

 

T-21 Comps            SHITTY-ASS COMPS EDITION - DON'T TAKE TOO SERIOUSLY

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	155.85		49	299		0/73	10966/11265	2.65%		3951	11.79%		9.74m
Shaz 2	147.47		23	316		0/93	15224/15540	2.03%		1663	28.02%		5.01m
TLM	47.94		60	972		0/154	21676/22648	4.29%		6561	7.10%		4.94m
Barbie	36.90		92	1263		0/96	11363/12626	10.00%		12077	3.86%		8.34m
Wonka	298.72		18	156		0/113	19128/19284	0.81%		1975	23.59%		10.46m
Aqua 2	160.14		3	291		0/93	15856/16147	1.80%		2629	17.73%		7.21m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     112/10075  [1.11% sold]
Matinee:    41/2674  [1.53% | 8.80% of all tickets sold]
3D:            38/3852  [0.99% | 8.15% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        205/9686  [2.12% | 43.99% of all tickets sold]

[Porthos]

On 5/23/2024 at 1:08 AM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-64 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	219	28079	31587	3508	11.11%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

216

 

Day 3 Comps

	%		Sold Day 3	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.85		419	7822		0/329	33094/40916	19.12%		21117	16.61%		16.15m
L&T	69.33		336	5060		0/228	26540/31600	16.01%		16962	20.68%		20.11m
BP2	87.33		294	4017		0/292	32534/36551	10.99%		16800	20.88%		24.45m
AM3	114.72		257	3058		0/231	29307/32365	9.45%		10475	33.49%		20.08m
GOTG3	149.21		194	2351		0/205	27217/29568	7.95%		10750	32.63%		26.11m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:       715/12927  [5.53% sold]
Matinee:    NOT YET COMPILED DUE TO FANDANGO ORNERINESS
3D:            305/6802  [4.48% | 8.69% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2021/11001  [18.37% | 57.61% of all tickets sold]

 

 

=====

 

MCU/SW films tend to have a bit longer of a slope-down on the decent of the "u-curve" so I think I'll keep posting "Day x" comps for at least a couple more days, especially for the MCU films with longer pre-sale windows.  Somewhere around D5/D6 or so, maybe.  Once I do switch over, I won't have any comps for quite a while, so I'll probably switch to providing percentage of final sold information against various MCU films.

 

As for CM and TROS? 

 

*makes a deeeeeeeeeeeep sigh*

 

DP3 = 0.31508x TROS at the same sources of tracking after three days of sales (D1 = 6 hours of sales) [12.6m]

DP3 = 1.65677x CM at the same sources of tracking after three days of sales (D1 = 30 hours of sales) [34.3m]

@charlie Jatinder

 

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-63 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	219	27941	31587	3646	11.54%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

138

 

Day 4 Comps

	%		Sold Day 4	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
MoM	44.97		285	8107		0/329	32809/40916	19.81%		21117	17.27%		16.19m
L&T	68.91		231	5291		0/228	26309/31600	16.74%		16962	21.50%		19.98m
BP2	86.60		193	4210		0/294	32812/37022	11.37%		16800	21.70%		24.25m
AM3	110.99		227	3285		0/231	29080/32365	10.15%		10475	34.81%		19.42m
GOTG3	148.03		112	2463		0/205	27105/29568	8.33%		10750	33.92%		25.91m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

 

Regal:      739/12927  [5.72% sold]
Matinee:    NOT YET COMPILED
3D:            324/6802  [4.76% | 8.89% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       2093/11001  [19.03% | 57.41% of all tickets sold]

----

CM EQUIV SEATS:        120 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV SEATS:    138 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

=====

 

Running late tonight, so nothing else to add, except for @charlie Jatinder:

 

D1:

CM EQUIV SEATS:        2491 seats sold D1 at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV SEATS:    2585 seats sold D1 at equivalent sources of tracking

 

D2:

CM EQUIV SEATS:        381 seats sold D2 at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV SEATS:    409 seats sold D2 at equivalent sources of tracking

 

D3:

CM EQUIV SEATS:        198 seats sold D3 at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV SEATS:    205 seats sold D3 at equivalent sources of tracking

[BOfficeStats]

How are The Lord of the Rings Trilogy re-releases doing (June 8-10, 15-17, 22-24)?  

 

From a quick glance, presales seem decent in a bunch of markets but I don't have a reference point.  

[el sid]

So my comparison number (as always without EA shows) for Garfield would have been completely wrong anyway - only 1.1M from previews compared to IF, Migration, Wonka, Lyle and Dolittle. 

The only comp which did ca. fit was Migration (makes sense; 1.95M for Garfield from that comp).

 

Garfield had 242 sold tickets yesterday (in 7 theaters). Best sales in the AMCs in LA and NY, the worst (as it's often the case now no matter which genre) in the AMC Sunset Place in Miami. Quite decent sales between the coasts which is always a good sign.

The jump was good, it went up by 40% since Wednesday. 

 

Edited May 24 by el sid

[filmlover]

A Quiet Place: Day One showtimes are starting to appear so must be going on sale soon, starts at 5:00 that Thursday.

[vale9001]

I can't believe It's almost 8 months from The eras tour and no movie has opened over its 93M 💀

The fact even inside out couldn't seeing some of the predictions here is tragic. I Hope it can do It cause 9 months with a concert being the biggest opening movie It's not for the "movie" industry 🤣. Of course Deadpool will open bigger but have we really to wait until late july?