The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Flip]

22 hours ago, Flip said:

Inside Out 2 (T-6)

12 showtimes/281 tix sold (+33)

 

2.066x Bad Boys 4 T-6 [11.52M*] (only comp)

 

A Quiet Place (T-20)

 

12 showtimes/128 tix sold (+5)

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-26) (D3)

 

22 showtimes/56 tix sold (+6)

 

Twisters (T-41) (D2)

 

14 showtimes/35 tix sold (-1) not good.

 

* I’m assuming Bad Boys did 5.575m just yesterday since I don’t think anyone has the number yet for how much EA did

Inside Out 2 (T-5)

12 showtimes/304 tix sold (+23)

 

Missed Bad Boys 4 T-5 (only comp)

Friday (T-6): 16 showtimes/546 tix sold

 

1.796x Thursday

 

A Quiet Place (T-19)

 

12 showtimes/131 tix sold (+3)

 

Despicable Me 4 (T-25) (D4)

 

22 showtimes/56 tix sold (+0)

 

Twisters (T-40) (D3)

 

14 showtimes/37 tix sold (+2)

 

not going to check DM4 and Twisters for a while since they’re barely growing.

[dallas]

A Quiet Place: Day One

 

Thursday Previews

 

T-19

Tickets Sold: 44 (+3)

Growth: 7.3%

% PLF: 45.5%

5 theaters/23 showtimes

 

Comps:

(0.463x) of Dune 2 - $4.31M

 

Still doing decently. Nothing spectacular, but should be safe for 30M OW. 

[dallas]

Despicable Me 4

 

Wednesday Opening

 

T-25

Tickets Sold: 10 (+2)

Growth: 25%

% PLF: 20%

5 theaters/45 showtimes

 

Comps:

(3.333x) of Kung Fu Panda 4 - $12.67M

 

Pretty solid this far out, though I don't know if KFP is a good comp because that's previews and this is opening day? 

[HummingLemon496]

If it does $12-13M+ in previews, that should easily crack $100M and maybe even beat ATSV's weekend from last June

[keysersoze123]

A Quiet Place: Day One MTC1(T-19) - 18567/515380 379747.41 2512 shows

 

This includes fan shows as well which is on the same day. Just previews for now and for a movie not releasing for 19 days, its really good. 

[AnthonyJPHer]

2 hours ago, M37 said:

A case can be made, but fwiw I’m not buying it.
 

Don’t think we’re in full adult-heavy Pixar (Lightyear, Dory, TS4) territory, or even having quite the hype and early pre-sales of even LA Little Mermaid, but do think IO2 is going to shade closer to that type of pattern than the standard animation flicks that most are using to comp. (Wonka might actually prove the be closest appropriation). Meaning the final week ramp up and walk-ups won’t be nearly as explosive - in terms of growth rate - as a KFP4 or even Garfield 

 

Something like $8M Thursday & $80M OW seems to me to be a good target (which is up from what I would have said a week ago, when it was more in $70-$80M range) 

 

 

I’m going to be honest, I’m not really seeing the data to support just an 80m weekend. I feel like that’s the low end projection. I could be dead wrong come next weekend, but I feel confident in this. Could massively backfire but isn’t that what box office is all about?

[AniNate]

I don't think Pixar skews that much more adult these days, though I'm gonna stick with the 80 mil prediction just to not be disappointed

 

I do feel like any kind of late surge depends in part on how reviews go, though that's more conjecture than anything.

 

 

Edited June 9 by AniNate

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews(T-6) - 35366/628225 657485.94 3235 shows +3483

Friday - 41413/1037512 721612.15 5338 shows +5224

 

There was some catalyst yesterday as pace today was slightly down. Let us see how things go next 6 days. 

Inside Out 2 MTC1

Previews(T-5) - 38884/629001 718317.52 3242 shows +3518

Friday - 48015/1038346 833277.57 5346 shows +6602

 

Flattish for previews. Friday has started to accelerate. I expect final surge to start from tomorrow. Let us see how things go. 

[charlie Jatinder]

19 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-6 Days

 

Previews - 2022/64171 (248 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $21.6M

 

Haunted Mansion - $14M

Wonka - $12.6M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $11M

Inside Out 2 MiniTC2 T-5 Days

 

Previews - 2348/64388 (250 showings)

 

Comps

Kung Fu Panda 4 - $21.4M

 

Haunted Mansion - $13.5M

Wonka - $13.5M

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire - $11.5M

 

Amazing how KFP4 comp is still $21M+. Ofc it will start dropping and a big drop on the final day to come in the low teens.

 

MiniTC2 will over-index for Pixar due to the big Hispanic audience here.

 

[Porthos]

On 6/7/2024 at 11:45 PM, Porthos said:

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-48 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	29012	33630	4618	13.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

39

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	21.87%		7.87m
L&T		16962	27.23%		7.90m
BP2		16800	27.49%		7.70m
AM3		10475	44.09%		7.72m
GOTG3		10750	42.96%		7.52m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       974/12927  [7.53% sold]
Matinee:    250/4470  [5.59% | 5.41% of all tickets sold]
3D:            430/6802  [6.32% | 9.31% of all tickets sold]
PLF:       2496/11538  [21.63% | 54.05% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        29 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    30 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

 

Deadpool & Wolverine Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-47 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	240	28945	33627	4682	13.92%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

64

 

Approx Earned So Far (Sacto Market Based Comps)

		Final Sold	% of Final		$ So Far
MoM		21117	22.17%		7.98m
L&T		16962	27.60%		8.00m
BP2		16800	27.87%		7.80m
AM3		10475	44.70%		7.82m
GOTG3		10750	43.55%		7.62m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Deadpool & Wolverine's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:       990/12927  [7.66% sold]
Matinee:    254/4470  [5.68% | 5.43% of all tickets sold]
3D:             448/6801  [6.59% | 9.57% of all tickets sold]
PLF:        2520/11535  [21.85% | 53.82% of all tickets sold]
———    
CM EQUIV        54 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking
TROS EQUIV    59 seats sold today at equivalent sources of tracking

[Porthos]

On 6/7/2024 at 11:46 PM, Porthos said:

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	166	23269	24769	1500	6.06%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

195

 

T-6 Comps

	%		Sold T-6	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	143.68		130	1044		0/92	11893/12937	8.07%		3951	37.97%		8.98m
Lightyear	172.81		164	868		0/129	15611/16479	5.27%		4091	36.67%		8.99m
Minion 2	147.49		189	1017		0/169	24355/25372	4.01%		6591	22.76%		15.86m
Element	429.80		43	349		—/—	9143/9492	3.68%		1910	78.53%		10.32m
Barbie	32.82		468	4570		0/180	17188/21758	21.00%		12077	12.42%		7.42m
Wonka	268.34		73	559		0/127	20091/20650	2.71%		1975	75.95%		9.39m
GBFE	216.14		10	694		0/142	22282/22976	3.02%		2197	68.27%		10.16m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:      269/10075  [2.67% sold]
Matinee:    139/2675  [5.20% | 9.27% of all tickets sold]
3D:              96/3852  [2.49% | 6.40% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          666/9779  [6.81% | 44.40% of all tickets sold]

 

===

 

Slight pullback in Sacramento as well, but still a very good day, IMO.  Next real tell will be Sunday, as T-4 Saturdays tend to be softer days (for a variety of reasons).

 

Inside Out 2 Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	166	23116	24766	1650	6.66%

 

Total Seats Sold Today

150

 

T-5 Comps

	%		Sold T-5	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Sonic 2	138.77		145	1189		0/92	11748/12937	9.19%		3951	41.76%		8.67m
Lightyear	154.78		198	1066		0/129	15410/16476	6.47%		4091	40.33%		8.05m
Minion 2	142.98		137	1154		0/169	24218/25372	4.55%		6591	25.03%		15.37m
Element	430.81		34	383		—/—	9109/9492	4.03%		1910	86.39%		10.34m
Barbie	32.74		470	5040		1/180	16708/21748	23.17%		12077	13.66%		7.40m
Wonka	272.73		46	605		0/127	20045/20650	2.93%		1975	83.54%		9.55m
GBFE	217.68		64	758		0/142	22218/22976	3.30%		2197	75.10%		10.23m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of Inside Out 2's current tickets sold versus that final number.

 

Regal:     299/10075   [2.97% sold]
Matinee:    164/2675  [6.13% | 9.94% of all tickets sold]
3D:            107/3851   [2.78% | 6.48% of all tickets sold]
PLF:          732/9776  [7.49% | 44.36% of all tickets sold]

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Inside Out 2, T-6 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 104

New Sales: 16

Growth: 18%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 25

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 4.3

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 16/6

Early Evening: 55/10

Late Evening: 33/9

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 11/1

Dolby 3D: 39/6

IMAX: 27/6

VIP: 24/4

Regular: 3/1

Regular 3D: 0/5

4DX 3D: 0/2

 

 Comps

0.770x KFP4 for $2.9M

13.000x IF for $22.8M

26.00x Garfield for $49.4M

1.529x GB:FE for $7.2M

1.962x Wonka for $6.9M

Average: $17.8M

 

Another good growth day.

 

Inside Out 2, T-5 Thursday previews, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 128

New Sales: 24

Growth: 23%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 25

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 5.3

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime 

Late Afternoon: 25/6

Early Evening: 68/10

Late Evening: 35/9

 

Sales by Format 

Dolby: 11/1

Dolby 3D: 54/6

IMAX: 36/6

VIP: 24/4

Regular: 3/1

Regular 3D: 0/5

4DX 3D: 0/2

 

 Comps

0.831x KFP4 for $3.2M

16.000x IF for $28.0M

32.00x Garfield for $60.8M

1.684x GB:FE for $7.9M

2.286x Wonka for $8.0M

Average: $21.6M

 

Again, ignore the average. IF and Garfield are distorting, but are there because they'll become relevant in the final few days when they started showing life. 

 

Growth across all comps are a great sign. Sunday morning updates usually don't see a big increase, but, I think families maybe planning for the week a bit.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Despicable Me 4, D2, T-26 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 7

New Sales: 0

Growth: 0%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.2

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

No new sales. Kung Fu Panda 4 jumped from 4 to 12 on its second day. Inside Out stayed at 2 on its second day.

 

Despicable Me 4, D3, T-25 Wednesday Opening, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 9

New Sales: 2

Growth: 29%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 38

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.2

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime Slot

Noon: 0/8

Early Afternoon: 0/8

Late Afternoon: 9/8

Early Evening: 0/7

Late Evening: 0/7

 

Sales by Format

Regular: 0/7

Regular 3D: 0/5

Dolby: 9/14

Dolby 3D: 0/2

IMAX: 0/10

 

Comps (T minus)

0.692x Inside Out 2 for ???

0.600x Kung Fu Panda 4 for $2.9M

9.000x Wonka for $31.5M

 

I set up the sheets. Being opening day, there's a lot of showtimes, so this is going to be a bit of a pain to track for a film that will only see action in that final week. Hard to make too much sense of the comps. With Jat indicating to what extent Kung Fu Panda overindexed in Canada, lagging on that isn't that much of a negative though.

[vafrow]

22 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, D2, T-41 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 2

New Sales: na

Growth: na

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.1

Ticket premium in effect: Y

EA sales: 4

 

It sold two more tickets on EA, but I expect this stays quiet for a while. Still need to set up sheets for it, but screen allocations seem plf heavy.

 

Twisters, D3, T-40 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales: 2

Growth: 100%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.2

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 8

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/5

Early Evening: 1/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 3/8

IMAX: 1/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

2.000x Fall Guy for $6.3M

0.286x KOTPOTA for $1.4M

0.235x BB:RoD for $1.4M

 

I managed to get the sheets set up. Screen counts are really low, but, at this far out, theatres are probably going to wait and see. I do expect that by the time full sets are released, this will be tracking well enough to justify more.

 

Comps are limited due to being so far out. I'm using D3 comps, but, BB:RoD was opened around T-21, so it's a rough comparison. KOTPOTA is a little closer, and Fall Guy opened well in advance. I think once we're under 3 weeks, then we'll get a much better idea on where we sit.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

On 6/8/2024 at 11:15 AM, AnthonyJPHer said:

Lord of the Rings trilogy (2024 re-release)

 

This will be my final update for this release. So be forewarned. There are at least 4 showings for each of these films that are sold out or are close to selling out. If this had more showtimes I really think double digits could be possible, but alas, this’ll have to do. Now that the obligatory blurb is out of the way, here are the final numbers for the Lord of the Rings trilogy 2024 re-release. (BTW, the showings did not change from last update.)

 

FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING

605 tickets sold for Saturday, June 8

 

102 tickets sold for Saturday, June 15

 

707 tickets sold in total over the two Saturdays

 

THE TWO TOWERS

490 tickets sold for Sunday, June 9

 

91 tickets sold for Sunday, June 16

 

581 tickets sold in total over the two Sundays 

 

RETURN OF THE KING

462 tickets sold for Monday, June 10

 

109 tickets sold for Monday, June 17

 

571 tickets sold in total for the two Mondays 

 

TICKETS SOLD FOR THE ENTIRE TRILOGY IN TOTAL: 1,859 tickets sold (FINAL) which is 19.8% growth from last update. 

 

1,557 tickets sold in total for the first week 

20% growth from last update

 

301 tickets sold in total for the second week

15% growth from last update 

 

@keysersoze123, is there any numbers on your end that you’d want to share? I think you are the only other person tracking this I’m pretty sure

 

But regardless, this is doing extremely well. Frontloaded as expected but just goes to show how insane a draw Lord of the Rings still is. I have no current predictions for this but they should all be above 1m 

Wow! Surprisingly good presale ticket numbers for each of the Lord of the Rings-films. If one of them does very well close to the numbers of the SW:TPM re-release or so, then god knows how much money at the box office the ”The Lion King”-re release might do next month. 🫣🤯

[AniNate]

They're two very different situations. If they don't take it off Disney+ for that engagement then I doubt it's going to be doing anything huge

[Eric is Quiet]

1 minute ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Wow! Surprisingly good presale ticket numbers for each of the Lord of the Rings-films. If one of them does very well close to the numbers of the SW:TPM re-release or so, then god knows how much money at the box office the ”The Lion King”-re release might do next month. 🫣🤯

Lion King's probably just doing like 5M or something lol (not a bad thing, mind you)

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Twisters, D3, T-40 Thursday previews and Wednesday EA, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Total Sales: 4

New Sales: 2

Growth: 100%

Theatres tracked: MTC4

Total theatres: 5

Showtimes: 17

Radius: 19 km

Tickets per showtime: 0.2

Ticket premium in effect: Y

 

EA sales: 8

 

Tickets by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 3/5

Early Evening: 1/6

Late Evening: 0/6

 

Tickets by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 3/8

IMAX: 1/6

4DX: 0/3

 

Comps

2.000x Fall Guy for $6.3M

0.286x KOTPOTA for $1.4M

0.235x BB:RoD for $1.4M

 

I managed to get the sheets set up. Screen counts are really low, but, at this far out, theatres are probably going to wait and see. I do expect that by the time full sets are released, this will be tracking well enough to justify more.

 

Comps are limited due to being so far out. I'm using D3 comps, but, BB:RoD was opened around T-21, so it's a rough comparison. KOTPOTA is a little closer, and Fall Guy opened well in advance. I think once we're under 3 weeks, then we'll get a much better idea on where we sit.

I think even to week of release nobody knows where it sits. This is the summer movie where the thursday walkups could just just shock the hell out of everybody.  A mini Jurassic World possibly. Or not but it's possible.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

11 minutes ago, Eric Burnett said:

Lion King's probably just doing like 5M or something lol (not a bad thing, mind you)

I can take a $5M+ DOM total. 😉

 

That would be like around $427-428M DOM in lifetime gross, putting it above Pirates 2, Hunger Games 2 & Captain Marvel. I’m just very hopeful though that it could earn more, adding to it’s WW-gross. Since it’s at $968M WW and hopefully if there are some big OS-markets where it could get it either close or at the $1B+ WW-mark. If it’s CGI remake can be in the $1B+ club, why not the hand drawn animated original?

 

The SW: EP1-The Phantom Menace re-release last May did fine with $13M DOM & $6.4M OS, which is impressive considering that A: That movie was still available at Disney+, and B: while a nostalgic movie, it’s a pretty divisive movie for many people to say the least. 

 

The Lion King is also nostalgic but it’s also much more beloved big 90’s blockbuster by critics and audiences. I mean, if there is one classic 90’s movie that deserves to make as much money as it can with a new theatrical release, it this.
 

Don’t you agree with me that the original TLK deserves to make more money? 🤷🏻‍♀️

[todos]

No re-releases are doing Titanic 25th anniversary numbers.