The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[abracadabra1998]

On 7/28/2024 at 8:37 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-18):

Day: T-18	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	103	61	326	17314	1.88

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		257	39	78.83
MTC1:		246	50	75.46
Other chains:		80	11	24.54

 

Comps:

0.79x Twisters (w/ EA): $8.43 Million

1.66x Quiet Place Day One: $11.31 Million

0.95x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $6.25 Million

1.42x Fall Guy (w/ EA): $4.48 Million

1.34x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.03 Million (17 theaters)

3.16x Exorcist Believer: $9.02 Million (17 theaters)

 

With this being a horror franchise don't think expecting Apes type of walk-ups is that crazy, expecting for at least $6 Million previews for now

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	103	89	415	17314	2.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		328	71	79.04
MTC1:		316	70	76.14
Other chains:		99	19	23.86

 

Comps:

0.84x Twisters (w/ EA): $8.93 Million

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

1.05x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $6.9 Million

1.44x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.49 Million (17 theaters)

3.84x Exorcist Believer: $10.95 Million (17 theaters)

 

This is doing REALLY solid, keeps on chugging along. I'm officially on the break-out train.

 

Apologies for so many posts today, this is the last one!

[AniNate]

Alien's gotten a strong homestretch push, and the trailer that's been attached to the big blockbusters the past month is pretty effective

 

 

Edited August 1 by AniNate

[Relevation]

12 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	103	89	415	17314	2.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		328	71	79.04
MTC1:		316	70	76.14
Other chains:		99	19	23.86

 

Comps:

0.84x Twisters (w/ EA): $8.93 Million

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

1.05x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $6.9 Million

1.44x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.49 Million (17 theaters)

3.84x Exorcist Believer: $10.95 Million (17 theaters)

 

This is doing REALLY solid, keeps on chugging along. I'm officially on the break-out train.

 

Apologies for so many posts today, this is the last one!

Bro holy shiiiiiiit
I thought It Ends With Us was already gonna be a super strong AUG breakout but Alien could be eyeing like $65M+ this weekend if it could hit those kinds of numbers, and it’s performing similarly in Florida too

 

Top 5 opener for August ever?

[abracadabra1998]

12 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Bro holy shiiiiiiit
I thought It Ends With Us was already gonna be a super strong AUG breakout but Alien could be eyeing like $65M+ this weekend if it could hit those kinds of numbers, and it’s performing similarly in Florida too

 

Top 5 opener for August ever?

Don’t really expect it to have a Quiet Place/Twisters type of walk-ups for my market, but those Aquaman/Apes comps seem achievable to me! Good stuff two weeks out 

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

57 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Alien: Romulus (T-14):

Day: T-14	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 23 theaters	103	89	415	17314	2.4

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		328	71	79.04
MTC1:		316	70	76.14
Other chains:		99	19	23.86

 

Comps:

0.84x Twisters (w/ EA): $8.93 Million

Quiet Place Day One: Missed

1.05x Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (w/ EA): $6.9 Million

1.44x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.49 Million (17 theaters)

3.84x Exorcist Believer: $10.95 Million (17 theaters)

 

This is doing REALLY solid, keeps on chugging along. I'm officially on the break-out train.

 

Apologies for so many posts today, this is the last one!

 

This is a great update to see right after I dropped my club. I'm starting to believe 60M might be a possibility with two weeks to go.

[Eric Prime]

Don’t know if this is just me playing Devil’s advocate, but Furiosa also had great presales before stumbling at the endgame. Alien is of course a far bigger franchise and has a bigger fandom, but it’s also a niche sci-fi 80s franchise from a very fan-driven franchise. And while Furiosa was fresh off Fury Road, Alien hasn’t had a huge crowd pleasing hit since Aliens. And that movie is how old now?

 

I hope for the best of course. It looks good! I’m excited for it. Just feel it’s important to bring that up with some of the 60+ predictions I’m seeing.

[AniNate]

I do think unlike Furiosa, good reviews for Alien would be a legit boost. People have been dying for an actual great Alien movie since the James Cameron one

[DAJK]

33 minutes ago, Eric Wilson said:

Don’t know if this is just me playing Devil’s advocate, but Furiosa also had great presales before stumbling at the endgame. Alien is of course a far bigger franchise and has a bigger fandom, but it’s also a niche sci-fi 80s franchise from a very fan-driven franchise. And while Furiosa was fresh off Fury Road, Alien hasn’t had a huge crowd pleasing hit since Aliens. And that movie is how old now?

 

I hope for the best of course. It looks good! I’m excited for it. Just feel it’s important to bring that up with some of the 60+ predictions I’m seeing.

I agree with this. But to play Devil’s advocate to your devil’s advocate, there could also be a “finally a good Alien movie” vibe, whereas getting a “good” Furiosa movie isn’t really anything special coming off of Fury Road.

 

That being said, I’m still expecting 35-40M unless we really start to see some acceleration in the final few days.

[abracadabra1998]

I’ve just been operating under the assumption that since it’s a horror movie it’ll inherently have good walk-ups, at least better walk-ups that a stylized action flick. But maybe not!

[Driver]

1 hour ago, Eric is Trapped said:

Don’t know if this is just me playing Devil’s advocate, but Furiosa also had great presales before stumbling at the endgame. Alien is of course a far bigger franchise and has a bigger fandom, but it’s also a niche sci-fi 80s franchise from a very fan-driven franchise. And while Furiosa was fresh off Fury Road, Alien hasn’t had a huge crowd pleasing hit since Aliens. And that movie is how old now?

 

I hope for the best of course. It looks good! I’m excited for it. Just feel it’s important to bring that up with some of the 60+ predictions I’m seeing.

 

Forget about budgets for a moment. Would you say 400 mil global is good for an Alien movie, relatively speaking? 

 

That's what Prometheus made, on a 150 mil budget. 

Edited August 1 by Driver

[kayumanggi]

 

[TalismanRing]

REGAL NYC Local (2pm)

Harold & Purple Crayon: 29/480

 

COMPS

Inside Out: $1.32m
Garfield: $1.06m
IF: $.71m
Ruby: $1.62m
Elemental: $1.48m

AVG: 1.24m

REGAL NYC Local (3pm)(5pm)

Trap: 89/925 -  99/925 (PG-13)

 

COMPS

Halloween Kills:  $3.14m (R)

Candyman: $3.34m (R)

Longlegs: $1.46m (R)
AQP 3: $3.24m (PG-13)
Watchers: $3.18m  (PG-13)
Strangers: Chapt 1: $3.5m (R)

 

Longlegs seems to be the huge outlier so chucking it

 

AVG:  $3.28m

[ThomasNicole]

1 hour ago, Driver said:

 

Forget about budgets for a moment. Would you say 400 mil global is good for an Alien movie, relatively speaking? 

 

That's what Prometheus made, on a 150 mil budget. 

250M is probably good enough. This cost 80M apparently

[Rocketracoon]

Any numbers for Cuckoo yet?

[JonathanMB]

Alien has always been a bigger and more consistent brand than Mad Max - we've never gone more than 7 years without a Xenomorph on screen since 1979, and aside from Sigourney in the first four and Fassbender in the last two there has never been any cast carryover, so audiences are conditioned to come out just for the big drooling guys. It's actually closer to the other big Fox property that had a new installment this year - Planet of the Apes. Not sure I'd go as high as $60M yet, but these presales seem to confirm that Covenant's $36M is a good floor for it. I think it also helps that basically every screening of the biggest movie in the world right now has a print of the red band trailer attached, which should help get people interested. 

Edited August 2 by JonathanMB

[Ryan C]

Trap

 

T-0

 

Friday: 2,522 Seats Sold

Saturday: 1,471 Seats Sold

Sunday: 887 Seats Sold

= 4,480 Seats Sold

 

Taken as of 11:05PM Eastern Time

 

IMPORTANT NOTES: Friday PM showings are looking great and even Saturday morning/afternoon showings are looking good right now. Thanks to the PG-13 rating, I'm expecting a good amount of walk-up business to propel this one to at least a $20M weekend. $30M is probably out of reach, but anything between $20M-$29M would still be great for this movie. 

 

Yet another weekend in a row where we have a solid performer on our hands and thank God this isn't the only one we will have in August. 

 

[filmlover]

Yeah, I don't see the Furiosa comparisons for Alien either. Should do well, especially since it's an IP that's just as rooted in sci-fi/action as it is in horror.

[keysersoze123]

23 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Trap MTC1

Previews(T-1) - 30737/191887 436948.58 1861 shows +6503 

Friday - 23354/309915 333149.27 2813 shows +5617

 

MTC2 Previews(T-1) - 10117/146936 132981.63 1665 shows +4028

 

I will update MTC2 in the morning. Previews grew more than what I expected. I think even 60K+ finish is possible if it can get the horror walkups. That said there is also MNS factor that could make it more presales driven. Plus with hardly any PLF shows its ATP is low and I feel MNS would mean it would do better at big cities. So thinking it can miss 3m previews even with good finish at MTC1. 

 

Friday sales being below previews this late is not good. It could miss 20m. I am still hoping for low 20s finish. 

 

Edit: updated with MTC2 previews. Skew is big for sure. but MTC2 tends to have better walkups and hope it does well today. 

Trap MTC1

Previews Final - 56928/196901 791074.77 1921 shows +26191

Friday - 32986/315630 463057.33 2867 shows +9632

 

MTC2 Previews - 33130/152045 426757.36 1704 shows +23013

 

Final day walkups are not bad(4x T-1). But nothing special. Low ATP overall means its going to have previews around 2.7m ish. I will update MTC2 once the run is complete but looking like sub 500K($ value) finish. 

 

Friday growth is even more mediocre. Bad reviews is not going to help. high teens OW is what I am seeing at this point. 

 

Edit: MTC2 data is even worse. I think its going to end close to Charlie's number. 

 

 

Edited August 2 by keysersoze123

[Flip]

On 7/31/2024 at 10:54 PM, Flip said:

Trap Friday (T-2) 

 

11 showtimes/292 tix sold (+46)

 

.23x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-2) [11.63m]

Missed Longlegs Friday (T-2) []

 

Mid. Sales today were lower than yesterday.

Trap Friday (T-1) 

 

11 showtimes/407 tix sold (+115)

 

.21x Inside Out 2 Friday (T-1) [10.62m]

.73x Longlegs Friday (T-1) [5.11m]

 

Prediction: 6.7-7.1m

[keysersoze123]

On 7/30/2024 at 11:27 AM, keysersoze123 said:

It ends with us MTC1

Early Shows(8/7) - 12562/37925 183231.40 310 shows

Previews - 16165/178539 223733.74 1503 shows
Friday - 21248/228014 288013.82 1869 shows

 

MTC2

Early Shows - 3810/12876 50484.53 136 shows

Previews - 13004/111458 166929.48 1043 shows

 

I have to get another run to judge the pace but the fact that friday is already comfortably ahead of previews shows great potential. Plus that MTC2 number this far out shows its breaking out beyond the coastal cities. Need to see which movie would make a good comp for this one. 

It ends with us MTC1

Early Shows(8/7) -  17143/44471 249714.33 365 shows

Previews(T-7) - 22865/199763 314980.46 1646 shows

 

Just MTC1 and that too just previews/early shows. I think daily pace for previews alone is promising at this point. if you add early shows to it its even more impressive.  if it can accelerate I am expecting 6-7m including early shows. Plus Friday was already well ahead. This is going for a big opening weekend. I would be surprised by anything less than 45m at this point.