The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vale9001]

26 minutes ago, leoh said:

Wicked pre sales in NY and LA, in the theatres where I usually track, are having  a demand comparable to ‘Deadpool and Wolverine’ first few hours. It’s shockingly high demand. It’s really really impressive. It’s too early to be sure of anything, but this is the one that can challenge  Inside Out 2 place as this year second biggest domestic box office opening weekend.

 

However, something to keep in mind is that it’ll also have lower ATP if compared to IO2 or DW, since both had all PLFs and IMAX screens, while Wicked will split them with Gladiator.

 

The big question is about GA interest. The point with Marvel when a Marvel movie Is a phenomenon is big pre sales on First day and then movies have appeal for the most generic audience too when they're out. 

Edited 7 hours ago by vale9001

[Krissykins]

There’s a slew of wide releases this weekend — but nothing is expected to do double digit million dollar openings. Sony is taking their critically acclaimed (79% certified fresh) film festival darling Saturday Night wide at 2,300 locations for what’s a $3.5M to possible $5M take. The movie’s predominant money has been in LA and NYC. The $30M Jason Reitman directed movie about the behind-the-scenes crazyness of Saturday Night Live on the eve of its first telecast has grossed $661K through EOD Monday after a platform release that began on Sept. 27. Previews are at 2 p.m. tomorrow at 2,025 locations.
 

 

SNL getting ready to open like a recent Lionsgate film. 

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

critically acclaimed (79% certified fresh)

Deadline is so funny 

[titanic2187]

I sense some attempt from marketing team from Wicked and Gladiator 2 to recreate magic of Barbieheimer. 

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

There’s a slew of wide releases this weekend — but nothing is expected to do double digit million dollar openings. Sony is taking their critically acclaimed (79% certified fresh) film festival darling Saturday Night wide at 2,300 locations for what’s a $3.5M to possible $5M take. The movie’s predominant money has been in LA and NYC. The $30M Jason Reitman directed movie about the behind-the-scenes crazyness of Saturday Night Live on the eve of its first telecast has grossed $661K through EOD Monday after a platform release that began on Sept. 27. Previews are at 2 p.m. tomorrow at 2,025 locations.
 

 

SNL getting ready to open like a recent Lionsgate film. 

It's gonna end up performing like last year's Dumb Money (another well-reviewed biographical dramedy lacking in awards buzz to make it a must-see) I think.

[vale9001]

5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I sense some attempt from marketing team from Wicked and Gladiator 2 to recreate magic of Barbieheimer. 

 

They can try and can work to make some people aware the 2 movies exists but i don't see a possible big impact in the terms of "people going to see both movies". Maybe some of the Wicked audience can be interested to gladiator cause they casted 3 popular actors upon young women but the average gladiator spectator being interested on wicked.. i don't know 😅. Barbie has robbie, Gosling + gerwig- baumbach involved. Was a different situation 

 

 

Edited 7 hours ago by vale9001

[vafrow]

Early sales on Wicked looks good so far.

 

Total sales of 16 tickets, which doesn't sound like much, but all films I identified as possible comps were slow starters (Inside Out 2, Beetlejuice, Twisters).

 

It also doesn't capture the 30 tickets sold for Wednesday EA shows.

 

This is suburban Toronto. It's not Midwest USA, but it's also not New York.

 

I thought Gladiator had a good start yesterday, and with the EA shows considered, this is doing better. 

 

I'll do a proper update tomorrow, but I'm feeling pretty optimistic, even though I won't have great comps.

[filmlover]

Just checked Wicked sales near me and they're pretty big so far. Fan rush and all due to the musical, but still. Confident it's at least opening on par with 2013's Oz the Great & Powerful ($79M) at this point. Hopefully Gladiator II can pull a $40M+ opening too for a very strong weekend leading into Moana 2's arrival over the Thanksgiving frame.

Edited 7 hours ago by filmlover

[leoh]

5 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

The big question is about GA interest. The point with Marvel when a Marvel movie Is a phenomenon is big pre sales on First day and then movies have appeal for the most generic audience too when they're out. 

True, but Wicked in few minutes sold out the three Dolby Cinema showings it has for Thursday in Lincoln square. It’s the second biggest Dolby Cinema nationwide (if I’m not mistaken). Of course I’d expect it to sell out there, but not so fast. The only few remaining seats are in the 2pm showing.

 

the question of course is if it’ll keep such a good pace. If so, this could affect Moana PLFs share. 

[charlie Jatinder]

GLADICKED
or
WICKTOR

[Grand Cine]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

@Grand Cine do you have comps? Fan events are part of Thursday previews, they are IMAX 5pm showings. So it’s already 31k total for Thursday. For comparison, Aquaman 2 only crossed 30k in T-5.

I saw For Venom 2 ; i saw this for previews at T-10 , Friday at T-11:

MTC1 - 28633/527728 487995.31 2501 shows

Fri-MTC1 - 19791/775005 334236.52 3683 shows

 

At T-9, previews are around 31,5K , Friday around 22,5K

 

With inflation (around 15%) , Venom 3 is around 85% of Venom 2 for previews , and around 75% for Friday at this point .

But the latter had great final week.

 

I think about 9,5-10M for Previews ( with EA) , 17-18M True Friday and low-mid 60's at this point, unless he made big final week like the last .

 

 

[justnumbers]

Very interesting what we're seeing from Gladiator and Wicked. And exciting.

 

I think we really need to adjust expectations on Gladiator because that movie has an absurd budget. 1 thing is for sure: Paramount will lose here. They won't make its money back on their own fault. 

 

I think it would be better and more positive for such a doomed from the start movie to focus on: What would be a good number for this in a vacuum? For theaters? 400M? 500M? 600M? Realistically, not those sky high bs predictions some are trying to conjure here. Because the movie will lose money. It's just going to.

 

So we either decide to be obtuse about it and go "800M or bust!" because of mismanaged budget or we start to have good faith analysis on this, while acknowledging that Paramount has lost on this already BUT theaters can still win.

 

Just my ignorant thoughts on Gladiator.

 

Edited 6 hours ago by justnumbers

[Ryan C]

I'll be tracking Wicked later tonight, but I'll just say right now that I am very impressed by how it's selling in the theaters near me. 

 

Granted, I'm tracking theaters that are either near or in the NYC area (I knew Wicked would sell best in the big cities), but this is the best first day in terms of pre-sales that I've seen for a movie since Deadpool and Wolverine. 

 

Wednesday EA screenings are doing fantastic business right now (plenty of near sell-outs) and Thursday is looking pretty good as well. Even some of the non-PLF showtimes have a good amount of seats sold, showing signs that audiences will opt to see this movie in whatever format and won't care if it's in IMAX or not. 

 

I'm not saying if this will open to $100M+, but if the film gets good reviews and it's able to appeal beyond the fanbase of the musical, this is no doubt going to be a big hit. 

 

I was told a few months ago that no one outside the fanbase was going to care about Wicked, but they might have to rethink that. 

Edited 6 hours ago by Ryan C

[joselowe]

1 hour ago, leoh said:

Wicked pre sales in NY and LA, in the theatres where I usually track, are having  a demand comparable to ‘Deadpool and Wolverine’ first few hours. It’s shockingly high demand. It’s really really impressive. It’s too early to be sure of anything, but this is the one that can challenge  Inside Out 2 place as this year second biggest domestic box office opening weekend.

 

However, something to keep in mind is that it’ll also have lower ATP if compared to IO2 or DW, since both had all PLFs and IMAX screens, while Wicked will split them with Gladiator.

Damn wicked actually selling great at my local theater too here in Miami-Dade. Shocked, I've never seen this type of first sales for first day here. Early access and first week tickets are selling pretty damn good in Aventura.

[vale9001]

15 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

 

I'm not saying if this will open to $100M+, but if the film gets good reviews and it's able to appeal beyond the fanbase of the musical, this is no doubt going to be a big hit. 

 

I was told a few months ago that no one outside the fanbase was going to care about Wicked, but they might have to rethink that. 

 

 

don't you say the same thing in the period before .."if it's able to appeal beyond the fanbase?".  We have to wait for the appeal beyond the fanbase, certainly it's not GA audience buys tickets 6 weeks before. But seems there is a fanbase enough at least for a solid 50M+ debut for now. 

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by vale9001

[TheFlatLannister]

I would caution about getting too ahead of ourselves with Wicked. It will have a fanrush type start because the Ariana Grande fanbase is akin to the Taylor Swift fanbase. The key will be how well it can sustain growth at the bottom of its U curve. 

[Eric the Clown]

Arianators win yet again. Your favorites could never

 

[leoh]

4 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

don't you say the same thing in the period before .."if it's able to appeal beyond the fanbase?".  We have to wait for the appeal beyond the fanbase, certainly it's not GA audience buys tickets 6 weeks before. But seems there is a fanbase enough at least for a solid 50M+ debut for now. 

 

 

at the pace that it’s selling in some locations I’d not be surprised if this 50M is made on its total opening day.

[THUNDER BIRD]

Hollywood to replace actors with singers.

 

One of them draw crowd to theaters, other don't.

[vale9001]

6 minutes ago, leoh said:

at the pace that it’s selling in some locations I’d not be surprised if this 50M is made on its total opening day.

 

We already discussed this. It's not marvel. Let's wait at least for the First week total Sales. 

Edited 5 hours ago by vale9001