The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[charlie Jatinder]

On 10/22/2024 at 6:31 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

Venom 3 MiniTC2 T-3 Days

 

Previews - 1839/74439 (300 showings)

 

Comps

Aquaman 2 - $7.4M

Black Adam - $6M adj for inflation

Marvels - $5.5M

 

Twisters - $7.1M (adj for under-indexing)

 

Friday - 1671/107213 (434 showings)

 

Comps

Aquaman 2 - $11M

Black Adam - $12M adj for inflation

Marvels - $11.5M

 

Twisters - $14M (adj for under-indexing)

Venom 3 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

Previews - 3513/75996 (309 showings) 
Friday - 3033/132451 (552 showings)

 

Comps

Aquaman 2 - $9M & $12.3M

Black Adam - $6.5M & $12M (adj for inflation)
Marvels - $5.7M & $11M

 

Twisters - $7.5M & $13M (after adjustments)
Ghostbusters - $6M & $10.5M

 

Quite meh Friday as you can see though today sales increase was decent, so can expect improvement from these.

Edited yesterday at 09:56 AM by charlie Jatinder

[M37]

3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

I am also not so negative anymore. It did have a good day. I am thinking 60m+ today after it looked dire until yesterday. At best I could see

7.75m previews

20 TF

24 Sat

17 Sun

 

High 60s OW. But most likely it will be close to 60m than 70m. 

Any particular reason to expect a better Thur/Fri ratio and IM overal than either of the two previous franchise entries? A $7.75M Thursday would be ~$17M TFri if it were to hold the ratio, and IMO the Thu/Fri and Fri/Sat increase will be smaller due to proximity to Halloween and competing with once a year Spooky Season events, plus a weaker - and more fan heavy - opening overall

 

I think IM lands pretty close to 7x, won’t be surprised if it dips slightly under 

[lorddemaxus]

25 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Venom 3 MiniTC2 T-1 Day

Previews - 3513/75996 (309 showings) 
Friday - 3033/132451 (552 showings)

 

Comps

Aquaman 2 - $9M & $12.3M

Black Adam - $6.5M & $12M (adj for inflation)
Marvels - $5.7M & $11M

 

Twisters - $7.5M & $13M (after adjustments)
Ghostbusters - $6M & $10.5M

These numbers indicate a pretty terrible Im tbh. Taking the barely over 7x for the IM. Dont think it’s comes close to 8.

[Mulder]

Yeah I was going to bring up that it's entirely possible for the Thursday number to look better and then its IM collapses based on fan rush and if the fabled Venom walk-ups actually materialize or not.

[Belakor]

The WOM it's not going to be good, once the leaks and small-talk about the film begin to spread in the internet I expect this to fall apart, not like the Joker 2  but similar with other CBM flops

[crazymoviekid]

On 10/22/2024 at 11:31 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Venom 3:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 30 Tickets
Theater 2: 30 Tickets

 

Joker 2: $2.88M
BB: $6.41M
BB:RoD: $8.60M
GB:FE: $5.22M
FN@F: $2.72M
FX: $4.79M
Black Adam: $4.51M

 

Some ups and downs. Still hovering around $5M+

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 24 Tickets
Theater 2: 27 Tickets

 

Joker 2: $4.17M
BB: $9.24M
BB:RoD: $8.66M
GB:FE: $6.77M
FN@F: $2.33M
FX: $7.69M
Black Adam: $6.01M

 

Pretty fucking bad, but suspiciously low. Going for $6M-$9M for now.

Venom 3:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 64 Tickets

Theater 2: 40 Tickets

 

Joker 2: $3.96M

BB: $8.00M

BB:RoD: $7.83M

GB:FE: $6.61M

FN@F: $3.75M

FX: $5.27M

Black Adam: $5.61M

 

Great boost in sales. Comps from $6M-$8M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 38 Tickets

Theater 2: 34 Tickets

 

Joker 2: $3.91M

BB: $9.30M

BB:RoD: $7.98M

GB:FE: $8.04M

FN@F: $2.82M

FX: $7.77M

Black Adam: $6.67M

 

Looks like sales still haven't been catching on yet. This is a last minute, walk-up franchise. $7M-$8M+

[crazymoviekid]

On 10/22/2024 at 11:33 PM, crazymoviekid said:

Conclave: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 5 Tickets
Theater 2: 16 Tickets

 

Megalopolis: $.47M
Bikeriders: $1.91M
Challengers: $1.28M
Drive Away Dolls: $.95M
KotFM: $1.24M

 

Some comps going up. Still strong between $1M-$1.25M

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 7 Tickets

Theater 2: 16 Tickets

 

Megalopolis: $1.56M

Bikeriders: $5.86M

Challengers: $2.18M

Drive Away Dolls: $4.31M

KotFM: $2.44M

 

A little wide, but I'd say $1.5M-$2.5M for now

Conclave: 

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 13 Tickets

Theater 2: 19 Tickets

 

Megalopolis: $.88M

Bikeriders: $1.45M

Challengers: $1.45M

Drive Away Dolls: $1.03M

KotFM: $1.49M

 

Great sales. Still strong between $1M-$1.25M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 15 Tickets

Theater 2: 25 Tickets

 

Megalopolis: $2.89M

Bikeriders: $4.50M

Challengers: $2.07M

Drive Away Dolls: $7.49M

KotFM: $3.36M

 

Pace is still pretty strong. $2.5M-$4M

[vafrow]

23 hours ago, vafrow said:

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-2, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 446

New Sales: 102

7 day average growth rate: 17.5%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 22.3

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 34/4

Early Evening: 284/8

Late Evening: 128/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 20/1

Dolby 3D: 136/6

IMAX: 116/4

IMAX 3D: 10/2

4DX 3D: 20/3

VIP: 144/3

 

Comps 

1.352x Joker 2 for $8.5M

4.505x GB:FE for $21.2M

1.222x HG:BoSS for $7.0M

1.914x Aquaman 2 for $8.9M

Average: $11.3M

 

It looks like I'm the track for all the hopium addicts. It's still going up. Growth was a bit ahead of where I thought it would land, and the consistency we've seen, I only expect a positive result for tomorrow.

 

I still don't have any insights into why it's overperforming here. There's nothing in the demographics that I can think of that would lend itself to this overperforming. I didn't track LTBC as a baseline. I'm not sure if other Canadian trackers are seeing anything.

 

Venom: The Last Dance , T-1, Western GTA (southern Ontario), Thursday Previews

 

Total Sales: 577

New Sales: 131

7 day average growth rate: 20.9%

Theatres: 5

Showtimes: 19

Tickets per Showtime: 28.9

Chains tracked: MTC4

Ticket Premium in effect: Y

 

Sales by Showtime

Late Afternoon: 50/4

Early Evening: 356/8

Late Evening: 171/7

 

Preview Sales by Format

Regular: 0/0

Dolby: 26/1

Dolby 3D: 188/6

IMAX: 152/4

IMAX 3D: 20/2

4DX 3D: 24/3

VIP: 167/3

 

Comps 

1.339x Joker 2 for $8.4M

3.899x GB:FE for $18.3M

1.371x HG:BoSS for $7.9M

1.843x Aquaman 2 for $8.3M

Average: $10.7M

 

So this slowed down a touch on the final day here. If I throw out Ghostbusters, it's pointing to a Thursday preview of around $8.0M, which isn't quite the overindex I thought I was seeing all week. It has required throwing out Beetlejuice already though, so I think maybe the more general family friendly IP has been the comp problem.

 

It is surprising to see growth slow down though. This was steadily accelerating all week. And then saw it's growth rate stall on the final day.

 

We'll see what comes out tomorrow. 

[Arlborn]

2 hours ago, crazymoviekid said:

Venom 3:

 

Thursday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 64 Tickets

Theater 2: 40 Tickets

 

Joker 2: $3.96M

BB: $8.00M

BB:RoD: $7.83M

GB:FE: $6.61M

FN@F: $3.75M

FX: $5.27M

Black Adam: $5.61M

 

Great boost in sales. Comps from $6M-$8M.

 

Friday Comps: 

 

Theater 1: 38 Tickets

Theater 2: 34 Tickets

 

Joker 2: $3.91M

BB: $9.30M

BB:RoD: $7.98M

GB:FE: $8.04M

FN@F: $2.82M

FX: $7.77M

Black Adam: $6.67M

 

Looks like sales still haven't been catching on yet. This is a last minute, walk-up franchise. $7M-$8M+

Interesting, I'm gonna put previews just over the middle of that, like 7.2M and around 50M OW from that, which isn't a disaster, but it's pretty meh.

[Eric is Gay for Venom]

 

[vafrow]

15 hours ago, vafrow said:

I thought I'd throw a discussion out there given how much the Barbenheimmer term has been thrown out, and how we'd actually define a Barbenheimmer phenomenon.

 

If we're just talking the existence of two big films opening up the same weekend, it feels like Glicked already gets us there. But it feels like the term means a lot more, but still hard to define.

 

First, the two films feel like the complimentary mix of films that Barbenheimmer achieved. Two adult films, likely heading towards positive reviews, and going after very different demographics, but both having potential for crossover appeal.

 

Box office, we're not tracking towards Barbenheimmer levels yet, but we weren't a month out in 2023. But that's where the box office element of this gets interesting. If Wicked does $110-120M and Gladiator does $60-70M, that is an amazing post pandemic weekend and one that should be celebrated. But still feels like it's not a worthwhile comparison to Barbenheimmer, even if it's not that materially off. It feels like earning that comparison means crescendoing into that upper tier. Both films settling into a total that was identified a few weeks in advance is not going to have that same energy to it.

 

I also don't know if we're going to get the Barbenheimmer marketing, cosplay, and push for the doubleheaders. Can the respective casts lean into the friendly rivalry in a genuine way without it being forced.

 

I'm not sure the full point of the post, other than gwttig some of these thoughts out in full form and see what others are thinking. The comparisons are inevitable, but I think the term means something a bit different to everyone.

 

 

Thinking more about this question, one other element of the Barbenheimmer success that Glicked might duplicate is having too big box office successful films also become awards contenders.

 

We're lucky to see one or two big films a year land in the best picture race these days. Barbenheimmer had Oppenheimer, which landed as a prohibitive favorite , and Barbie was already pretty high on the radar due to Greta's pedigree.

 

Glicked is in that similar range, but not quite fully like we see in other elements.

 

Gladiator is around 7th or 8th in odds on Gold Derby. Wicked a bit behind. Both could move up depending on reception.

 

Realistically, both Gladiator and Wicked might get into the conversation. It's unlikely either dominates like Oppenheimer. And Wicked would need a really strong campaign to break into hte best picture race.

 

The more I think about it, the more "Barbenheimmer-lite" actually is a worthy descriptor. It has the potential to land similar, but slightly lesser accomplishments acros the board. The biggest element it needs is to sustain momentum into release.

 

On that note, Wicked had a good day in my track after a few days of stagnation. I'll need to see if I can cobble enough comps for a proper update this weekend.

[AniNate]

I sure hope HERE can do a $10mil opening just to give the box office a slight positive narrative boost against the 2023 comp, but it's looking unlikely at this point with how cinephile hype has dwindled.

[keysersoze123]

8 hours ago, M37 said:

Any particular reason to expect a better Thur/Fri ratio and IM overal than either of the two previous franchise entries? A $7.75M Thursday would be ~$17M TFri if it were to hold the ratio, and IMO the Thu/Fri and Fri/Sat increase will be smaller due to proximity to Halloween and competing with once a year Spooky Season events, plus a weaker - and more fan heavy - opening overall

 

I think IM lands pretty close to 7x, won’t be surprised if it dips slightly under 

Just extrapolating from the data I see. I may be overly optimistic for sure. Let us wait and see how things go today. I am expecting 5x T-1 sales like last movie to hit the numbers I am expecting. if it does worse then all bets are off. My numbers were based on how high it can go if walkups are great like it was for last movie. Plus even China had good walkups for its OD 🙂 

[DAJK]

Not *directly* related to tracking, but as I mentioned in the CC thread, the theater I grew up watching movies at, the theater I worked at for many years, is closing its doors at the end of the year. The company simply can't afford to maintain it, not enough traffic post-COVID. 

 

It's gotten me thinking. If you want to keep your local theater around, GO SEE MOVIES! If all that's available to you are the big megaplexes, go see movies there! If you have a small local theater, go see movies there! The industry really really needs you, the people that run these places need you. My first ever bosses, the two full-time managers, will be out of a job come January, as the place they have managed for 25+ years will be closed. The people like them need your business. 

 

Go see a movie on a Tuesday. Go see a movie on a Friday. Go see Conclave. Go see Venom. Do the Glicked double feature. Don't watch Joker lol, but go see anything else! This is an industry that relies on people like us, people who love movies, people who love the collective experience of watching movies. 

 

The place that taught me to love movies may be gone soon, but the places that taught you all to love movies might still be around. Don't let your local theaters face the same fate. GO SEE MOVIES!

[justnumbers]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

I sure hope HERE can do a $10mil opening just to give the box office a slight positive narrative boost against the 2023 comp, but it's looking unlikely at this point with how cinephile hype has dwindled.

Bruh that thing ain't touching 10M. We're 1 week away and it doesn't exist.

[AniNate]

Tell that to @Shawn Robbins

[Mojoguy]

54 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Go see a movie on a Tuesday. Go see a movie on a Friday. Go see Conclave. Go see Venom. Do the Glicked double feature. Don't watch Joker lol, but go see anything else! This is an industry that relies on people like us, people who love movies, people who love the collective experience of watching movies. 

[justnumbers]

4 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Tell that to @Shawn Robbins

A lot happens/changes in 1 week. And it was 8M-13M. Going to open 7M-8M. 

 

Ofc, just got feeling. Can't help but feel that this movie doesn't exist for something 1 week away. If it's not a dump, sure does feel like 1. Maybe they're marketing on the right places? Idk.

[filmlover]

Going to see Here but honestly not surprised that it's looking to be a nonstarter. It just seems like a very difficult movie to market given how weird (Hanks and Wright de-aged and aged-up by decades via CGI!) and gimmicky (the camera sits in one spot the whole movie as it travels through time!) the whole thing comes off as. Too much of a "cinematic experiment" vibe, reviews will make or break it as to what its numbers will look like (it premieres at AFI tomorrow).

[AniNate]

Honestly even 7m at this point seems like a stretch. Doing almost nothing in presales. Not that I expected it to be selling like hotcakes but even Piece by Piece had more sales further out here I'm pretty sure.