The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

 

I am very curious about this one. I can see it performing more than other prestige pics with the subject matter and timing.

I wouldn't expect The Apprentice to make much tbh. If it makes $10M total I'll be impressed.

[AniNate]

Check that: Wonder actually did have Thursday previews (The-Numbers didn't track it). They were $740k on the way to a $27.5mil weekend. They did start pretty late at 7pm but still, not exactly evidence for a more modest TWR internal mult.

[Eric Prime]

Quorum Updates

White Bird T-15: 17.07% Awareness, 38.84% Interest

Saturday Night T-22: 19.16% Awareness, 43.17% Interest

Black Bag T-176: 4.63% Awareness, 33.39% Interest

The Accountant 2 T-218: 27.44% Awareness, 38.35% Interest

 

Never Let Go T-1: 31.75% Awareness, 42.99% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 41% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M

 

Transformers One T-1: 53.88% Awareness, 49.92% Interest

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 93% chance of 20M, 74% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M

 

Bagman T-8: 19.52% Awareness, 39.49% Interest

Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Horror Awareness: 0% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Horror Interest: 20% chance of 10M

 

Megalopolis T-8: 20.34% Awareness, 37.75% Interest

Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 25% chance of 10M

Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M

Medium Interest: 50% chance of 10M

 

The Wild Robot T-8: 37.64% Awareness, 42.97% Interest

Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M, 32% chance of 20M, 19% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Awareness: 25% chance of 20M

Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M

Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M

 

Venom: The Last Dance T-36: 47.25% Awareness, 54.68% Interest

T-30 Awareness: 85% chance of 30M, 58% chance of 40M, 38% chance of 50M, 35% chance of 60M, 23% chance of 80M, 15% chance of 90M, 11% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 60M, 40% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M

T-30 Interest: 85% chance of 20M, 75% chance of 30M, 65% chance of 40M, 52% chance of 50M, 37% chance of 60M, 27% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 80M, 22% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M

DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 40M, 78% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 55% chance of 100M

[filmpalace]

7 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Check that: Wonder actually did have Thursday previews (The-Numbers didn't track it). They were $740k on the way to a $27.5mil weekend. They did start pretty late at 7pm but still, not exactly evidence for a more modest TWR internal mult.

I remember Wonder having CRAZY group sales from churches

[AniNate]

All this talk about animated/family comps is just making Kung Fu Panda 4's weekend mult look all the less impressive tbh. Obviously being a nostalgia sequel it probably did have a lot more teenage/adult interest on Thursday, but that does seem like it ought to be the floor for a critically acclaimed new IP movie on a school night more than the goal.

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by AniNate

[M37]

14 minutes ago, AniNate said:

  

 

Well, Wonder didn't have Thursday previews, so can't make any kind of internal multiplier comparisons based on that. However IF which released in mid-May also had a better internal multiplier than KFP4, even with much weaker reviews.

It did, they were less than $1M, but previews from back then aren’t really comparable anyway. Was talking more about sales pattern and audience composition rather than a direct IM comp

Also for KP4, that was a big Spring Break week for (look at Migration’s dailies 3/4-3/7), so would expect a bigger Thursday and deflated IM as compared to mid-May when schools aren’t out yet 

 

I’ll put it this way: if one believes Wild Robot will behave like a pure animated film, than taking current sales numbers at face value we’re looking at something like $70 OW … does that seem right? Maybe it does! But if not, then have to ask why early sales might be inflated and what that means for growth rate towards the end 

[M37]

10 minutes ago, filmpalace said:

I remember Wonder having CRAZY group sales from churches

It wasn’t churches iirc, it was school classes who had read the book, giving kids a fun day/movie trip right before Thanksgiving break 

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

It wasn’t churches iirc, it was school classes who had read the book, giving kids a fun day/movie trip right before Thanksgiving break 

This.

 

It was also pretty common during The Blind Side's surprise blockbuster run for school sports teams to buy out entire theaters for it.

[AniNate]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

 

 

I’ll put it this way: if one believes Wild Robot will behave like a pure animated film, than taking current sales numbers at face value we’re looking at something like $70 OW … does that seem right? Maybe it does! But if not, then have to ask why early sales might be inflated and what that means for growth rate towards the end 

 

You're talking to the guy who has an over $200 million club, lol. 

 

I'm not prepared to say $70 mil yet only because I don't necessarily need to for that club to have a chance, I will say we have had some pretty big animated shockers this year already though. Maybe the previews pace slows up, but I definitely think the weekend may pick up the slack later.

 

[emoviefan]

3 hours ago, Eric Prime said:

https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-a-minecraft-movie-makes-a-splash-six-months-before-release/

 

New Gladiator 2 trailer coming Monday according to Denzel. Hopefully that pops the awareness and I assume they will make better music choices this time.

[wattage]

Even if this movie has an identical demo breakdown as KFP4 the multi would still be higher wouldn't it? It's a normal school night on a normal weekend vs spring break which deflates IM with kids off of school. I doubt this is gonna skew even more adult than the nostalgic sequel in a 16 year old franchise (knock on wood ). The previews on a school night are gonna be a lot of older people vs the weekend. 

Edited 1 hour ago by wattage
knocking on wood...

[CheeseWizard]

Is this good? Feels like at this level, that might be including early access screenings too.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by CheeseWizard

[vafrow]

Variety reporting $3.36M in previews. It's unclear if that includes EA showings. If anyone finds that, it would be helpful. I'd like to throw in true Thursday TOne as a comp for WR.

[wattage]

Anthony at Deadline is usually better about saying whether previews include early access or anything so waiting on that article. 

[AniNate]

That has to include EA, no way it managed that much on Thursday alone with the tracking. Still, might have a decent internal mult if EA took all the fanboy business.

 

 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by AniNate

[CheeseWizard]

The number is weird af no matter what way it’s sliced. If it’s just pure Thursday alone then it’s fucking ridiculous.
If it’s split between previews and EA then at least one of those two numbers were incredibly low. I mean for gods sake the movie made 2 million in China over 3 days of early access screenings, so it making less than that over 3 weeks of early access screenings in the US is strange to say the least. 

[Shawn Robbins]

$3.36m includes the fan event, early access, and Thursday night.

[WebSurfer]

 

[Flopped]

3 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:

$3.36m includes the fan event, early access, and Thursday night.

 

Can u pls explain what this means from deadline? 

 

The industry does need a new theatrical distributor and MUBI is making a splash with its acquisition of Universal/Working Titles’s The Substance which minted $512K in Wednesday previews that began at 7PM in 785 theaters and another $327K in previews from 1,455 theaters.

[vafrow]

https://deadline.com/2024/09/box-office-transformers-one-the-substance-never-let-go-1236095371/

 

The first animated Transformers movie in close to four decades, Transformers One, from Paramount and Hasbro Entertainment grossed $3.36M from Wednesday fan shows (7PM) and Thursday previews (5PM)

 

Its looking like the Saturday EA may be rolled into the weekend figures. Hopefully Jat or someone can get full clarity in time. 

 

Wednesday shows were pretty limited. I think landing at $3M true Thursday is probably where we'll find it which is pretty good for having up front demand burned off from EA shows.

 

Edit: Nevermind, it seems like there's still conflicting info. Let's just wait a bit.

Edited 1 hour ago by vafrow