The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[vafrow]

The Marvels, T-21, western GTA (southern Ontario)

 

Tickets sold: 480

New sales: n/a

Growth: n/a

Theatres: 9 of 10 

Showtimes: 39

Tickets per showtime: 12.3

Chains tracked: MTC4, via manual count from chain app

 

COMPS

No reasonable comps available for regional population

 

Single theatre comp:

0.625x of ATSV for $10.8M

 

I figured if I was able to do FNAF as a manual count, I should do Marvels. I lack good comps for it, even at the very local level, but ATSV gives something. ATSV really over performed locally as well, but on the strength of a solid final week. Still, numbers are better than what I thought after i was checking casually on it's opening day. 

 

I figure this is one i should track, as a low end Marvel will likely be useful as a comp going forward. It should help us gauge Aquaman for example in a months time.

 

Just based on time it takes, I'm going to need to limit what films I track. I figure I'll limit to this and FNAF for now, and may not go daily for Marvels.

[TwoMisfits]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Killers of the Flower Moon

Previews - 56650/342597 940194.74 2218 shows

Friday -  60244/508440 999583.10 3345 shows

 

Its not final number was it was taken earlier in the evening. But thinking around 60K finish. So probably enough to squeak by 3m due to good ATP. Friday makes me think its going for around 11m with previews and high 20s OW. 

 

Eras should win the day with around 4-4.5m gross. Since @charlie Jatinder said Eras thursday will not be part of the weekend, its going to be close. I think Eras has the slight advantage due to humongous ATP. 

 

Is that adjusting for the possible MTC 1/2 overindex, not just due to normal conditions, but also the TMobile deal?

[Boxofficerules]

I read Five Nights At Freddy's is now going to Peacock on the 26th, before previews.

[Mulder]

6 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I read Five Nights At Freddy's is now going to Peacock on the 26th, before previews.

It is. Not sure what time though. Might be like Halloween Ends and go up when previews start.

[M37]

41 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Is that adjusting for the possible MTC 1/2 overindex, not just due to normal conditions, but also the TMobile deal?

The typical PSM (pre-sale multiplier, or preview gross/tickets sold) for MTC1 is around $56/tix. An over index falls more in the $48-$50/tix range, so a 60K ticket finish would be still be pushing up to $3M even with an overindex

 

I do think with big PLF draw and T-mobile deal it does slide to that lower range, $2.8-$3.0M preview 

[Krissykins]

Looks disappointing for Killers of the Flower Moon then. Looked like 40m at the beginning, then 30m now 20m. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Looks disappointing for Killers of the Flower Moon then. Looked like 40m at the beginning, then 30m now 20m. 

The 20m range has always been the major projection for KotFM, though.

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Also, the first two Trolls movies weren't exactly beloved classics that left a major imprint on pop culture, so the third one walking away empty handed wouldn't be much of a shock. It's yet another streaming gold rush baby that'll end up taking its first steps inside a far different environment than the one it was conceived in.

 

Songbirds and Snakes flopping is also not surprising in the least. The original movies ended on a pretty sour note with Mockingjay, so this one needed a unique hook and a strong marketing campaign to succeed. It has neither, so it'll be lucky to make even $300M worldwide at this point.

 

This holiday season is going to be rough. Probably the worst one for exhibition outside of 2020 in quite a while. The holiday corridor has been highly lucrative ever since the first Hobbit movie back in 2012. Barring 2020 for obvious reasons, here was always a big billion, or at least near-billion dollar hit each year in the December corridor. This year the biggest movie might struggle to reach half a billion worldwide. I really hope theater employees don't end up losing their jobs by next year.

As long as they're making that concession money (which they will even with a bunch of $100-150M grossers the next few months), they'll be fine.

[Valencia]

18 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

The 20m range has always been the major projection for KotFM, though.

Yes, but Deadline is supposed to be underestimating it though so it can over perform.

 

They messed up and got this one right.

Edited October 20, 2023 by Valencia

[keysersoze123]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Is that adjusting for the possible MTC 1/2 overindex, not just due to normal conditions, but also the TMobile deal?

Its already accounted for. Its making high 20s for sure. Movie is highly acclaimed with Leo and with long run time will push sales to the weekend. It will do well. Do not under estimate Leo/Marty combo. Friday sales have been rock solid. 

[filmlover]

Think Taylor is winning the weekend. Sales have been strong still and the fact it's only playing on Thursdays + weekends means the spillover business it would've made earlier in the week will be pushed to the weekend.

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

The Marvels Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-21 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	189	26712	27628	916	3.32%

 

Total Showings Added Today	2
Total Seats Added Today	113
Total Seats Sold Today	14

 

T-21 Comps:

	%		Sold T-21	Total Sold		Sellouts Shows	Seats Left Total Seats	Perct Sold		Final Sold	% of Final		Comp
Eternal	68.51		116	1337		0/96	14206/15543	8.60%		6409	14.29%		7.36m
GOTG3	29.48		93	3107		0/206	26559/29666	10.47%		10750	8.52%		5.16m
TLM	94.24		60	972		0/154	21676/22648	4.29%		6561	13.96%		9.71m
AtSV	62.74		101	1460		0/123	18436/19896	7.34%		9744	9.40%		10.89m
Flash	110.49		71	829		0/174	23899/24728	3.35%		5327	17.20%		10.72m
Indy 5	98.28		37	932		0/124	18589/19521	4.77%		4767	19.22%		7.08m

FINAL SOLD NOTES: "Final sold" is the number of tickets sold for the movie in question at stop of tracking while "% of final" is the percentage of The Marvel's current tickets sold versus that final number.

ETERNAL COMP NOTE:  The Eternals comp has been given an ad-hoc adjustment of 1.13047x  to reflect the difference in ATP between now and late 2021, with the same methodology as explained in this post.

 

Regal:     124/8661  [1.43% sold]
Matinee:    28/2547  [1.10% | 3.06% of all tickets sold]
3D:            66/5039  [1.31% | 7.21% of all tickets sold]

Sacramento have been on the money for these Marvel movies. But you did say Cap Marvel actually over indexed there. Will this movie under index here? Otherwise all the tracking numbers seen so far seem wildly optimistic. 

[SpiderByte]

Concert movies, typically, don't have awful second weeks. Not great but usually a regular kind of drop. The real drop is the third week, that's when the cratering usually happens. But with Swift it could be more frontloaded 

[Taylor]

 

[Taylor89]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Looks disappointing for Killers of the Flower Moon then. Looked like 40m at the beginning, then 30m now 20m. 

 

Maybe because of lack of promotions?

[Giorno]

~$30m OW for a 3.5 hour movie that isn't based on a popular IP nor is it some crowdpleaser is very good especially considering the biggest movie star in the world couldn't promote it a lick

[vale9001]

52 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Concert movies, typically, don't have awful second weeks. Not great but usually a regular kind of drop. The real drop is the third week, that's when the cratering usually happens. But with Swift it could be more frontloaded 

 

Next weekend She will release a new "old" album (so could work as promo) plus it's halloween weekend (that week the movie will be "on"also on mon and tue). A lot of people are seeing this with costumes and everything so could get an halloween push. 

Edited October 20, 2023 by vale9001

[M37]

On 10/17/2023 at 10:07 AM, M37 said:

Five Nights at Freddy's Preview Tracking T-10 Update

A little late on this, as ERAS took up so much attention, but as many have noted, looking very good for double digit previews with only 10 days to go

Not included: the now missing data from MTC1, which was very much on the low end of comp values, and MiniTC2, where all comps are $20M+, together suggesting an atypical MTC/market skew is incoming

 

Decent spread in values from $10-$16M+, with a good amount of convergence in the $13-$14M range. Hey now ...

 

For the record, the primary comps chosen for the chart all had very strong pace from T-21 to T-7 (with Fast X having high volume from looooong presale window), with only Flash falling off after that, so would not read too much into the slight downward trends at present. Question will be if FNAF can keep up - if not run ahead of - those paces from T-7 through the finish

 

Looking ahead to the weekend, Friday sales are VERY strong ... but falling off quite a bit for Saturday and Sunday. For example:

Mentioned this in the weekend thread, but does seem like a strong possibility to see a new October record $40M+ OD (including previews) ... but with the day & date streaming release and very late review embargo, being frontloaded and falling off quickly.  Halloween Kills and Ends, both also with the same Universal D&D release, made 46.2% and 50.9% of the OW through Friday (off a much smaller Thursday).

Wouldn't be surprised if the same fate befell Freddy, and it winds up very close to the Joker/ERAS/Venom 2 range for OW in the end. Overall, the weekend sales pattern and large teen draw feels less horror or even video game, and more YA-ish; a throwback to the likes of Hunger Games, where for example Mockingjay P2 turned a nearly $46M OD into a just barely over $102M OW (44.3% OD/OW). Knock maybe ~5% off those values to get an idea where my expectations currently sit

Five Nights at Freddy's Preview Tracking T-7 Update

I can't recall the last film track that had me so ... conflicted, with the raw data clearly showing an up arrow, while having to weight that against outside factors pulling it down. Going to delve a bit deep, so using spoiler boxes to limit length of post

 

Thursday Preview:

Chart update here, where the average has wobbled a bit but remained around $13M+

 

Further analysis

Spoiler

Perhaps more importantly, we're definitely seeing some convergence happening, where the higher value comps are starting to drift down, while - despite the purposeful choice of higher pace comps - the lower level values are coming up, which only increases confidence in the expected value. (The one exception are the OK comps for Barbie & Oppy, but with @Hilts new to the tracking team, fewer comps to choose from, and wouldn't read too much into that trend)

 

When delving down a bit and looking at pace (growth rate), there is really nothing that suggests a slowdown is imminent; the 7-day and 3-day growth rate ranges are +45%-60% and +18%-28% respectively for most samples, with only typically higher early sale samples Orlando and Drafthouse falling outside than that range. For comparison, ATSV was in the +36%-55% and +18-26% range for that same time period. Flash also had a fairly poor final week, and even those comp values are in a similar range if FNAF follows suit

 

However, a few caveats:

• ATP - the values here are based on a straight comparison of tickets sold, and with FNAF having limited PLF shows and the potential for a higher share of discounted if not child at least student rate tickets, the actual value is likely a bit lower
• Streaming - The elephant in room regarding this opening, the simultaneous release on Peakcock, has only grown bigger with the advertising now including Thursday night. Per CNET, it debuts at 8PM ET on 10/26, and could undercut potential Thursday sales
• Capacity - Hopefully theaters come around when setting schedules this week, but a present there is a limit on supply that could diminish potential sales

Overall, ~$13M Previews still sounds right, with pace at present suggesting higher potential - challenging IT's $13.5M horror record - but with added uncertainty and several reasons why we shouldn't be surprised if it were to land lower. Without hitting some kind of major wall that data at present doesn't suggest, can't really see much lower than $11M though

 

So what about the Opening Weekend?

Spoiler

Here's where it gets far more complicated. Noted upthread that every Sept/Oct release thusfar has managed at least a 3x Thu-->TFri, though from sales patterns seems likely FNAF won't make the same jump, and probably performs more like a CBM or Franchise film. Some potential comps

• Black Widow = 1.99x (summer, Day & Date, COVID)
• Venom 2 = 2.23x
• Black Adam = 2.51x
• Halloween Ends = 2.77x
• Fast X = 2.74

Maybe in the worst case something like Black Widow, but more likely IMO in the 2.2-2.75 range as the D&D release starts to work against it. Still believe a $40M+ OD is happening, which would best Joker's top mark (#163) for October. But after that ...

 

Saturday and Sunday sales are especially weak; in Drafthouse, Sat tickets sold are only at 70% of Thursday, which is the lowest at T-7 ratio I have down except for Flash, where Sat only increased 60% from Thur.  However, the next closest are Fast X and Black Adam, so a strong final week and/or walk-up rate can make up a lot of ground there.

As referenced above, Halloween Kills and Ends made 46% and 51% of the OW through Friday as they saw a -4% and -13% Sat respectively, and still believe a very good chance FNAF sees a similar Sat drop. For Sunday, both were in neighborhood of -45%, though with the rating (R vs PG13) and age skew, maybe it can hold a bit better (or worse?)

 

Putting all the math together works out to an IM of around 7x, potentially lower depending on where Friday land, though can't rule out higher if walk-ups are strong and Peacock doesn't inflict too much damage

 

Rolling up the analysis together get me to here, with a midpoint right around Venom 2, higher than the top end of  @Shawn's updated LRF

FNAF OW Forecast Matrix		Thursday Preview Gross Range
		$11.0	$11.4	$11.9	$12.3	$12.8	$13.2	$13.6	$14.1	$14.5
Thur / Wknd Ratio (IM)	6.00	$66.0	$68.6	$71.3	$73.9	$76.5	$79.1	$81.8	$84.4	$87.0
	6.25	$68.8	$71.5	$74.2	$77.0	$79.7	$82.4	$85.2	$87.9	$90.6
	6.50	$71.5	$74.3	$77.2	$80.0	$82.9	$85.7	$88.6	$91.4	$94.3
	6.75	$74.3	$77.2	$80.2	$83.1	$86.1	$89.0	$92.0	$94.9	$97.9
	7.00	$77.0	$80.1	$83.1	$86.2	$89.3	$92.3	$95.4	$98.4	$101.5
	7.25	$79.8	$82.9	$86.1	$89.3	$92.4	$95.6	$98.8	$102.0	$105.1
	7.50	$82.5	$85.8	$89.1	$92.3	$95.6	$98.9	$102.2	$105.5	$108.8
	7.75	$85.3	$88.6	$92.0	$95.4	$98.8	$102.2	$105.6	$109.0	$112.4
	8.00	$88.0	$91.5	$95.0	$98.5	$102.0	$105.5	$109.0	$112.5	$116.0

 

Not ruling out the higher end of a $100M+ OW, but tempering expectations a bit due to outside factors working against that outcome

Final thought

Spoiler

Despite two major challengers in 2 weeks, Joker may hold onto the October OW after all

Spoiler

getting the ... last laugh

 

 

 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

The 20m range has always been the major projection for KotFM, though.

Initial presales indicated a potential for $40m and the long range tracking was $30-40m for weeks. 
 

7 minutes ago, Giorno said:

~$30m OW for a 3.5 hour movie that isn't based on a popular IP nor is it some crowdpleaser is very good especially considering the biggest movie star in the world couldn't promote it a lick

I can’t call it “very good” when it cost $200m to produce, never mind market. And I think it’ll be under $30m, but we’ll see. 

[vale9001]

24 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Initial presales indicated a potential for $40m and the long range tracking was $30-40m for weeks. 
 

I can’t call it “very good” when it cost $200m to produce, never mind market. And I think it’ll be under $30m, but we’ll see. 

 

 

wasn't this move supposed to be like just released in Apple +, or at least coming there just 2-3 weeks after the theaters release?. It's not like they were expecting to make 500M dollars from theaters anyways. 

Still yeah i hope can make at least 30M.