The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Grand Cine]

18 minutes ago, YM! said:

Chances were dead as of yesterday. Barring an unexpected WOM sensation which I doubt, think Elemental domestic numbers is a best case for total.

 

 

Yes and no , we will see the review embargo because yes the last screenings aren't good but the first are so like i said in Wish thread , i think 75% around Elemental isn't bad , it's better than Trolls 3 and better than almost the rest of November releases . and Elemental has a good WOM and good legs , the early access could be a good factor

[Eric is Anxious]

Quorum Updates

Napoleon T-6: 40.38%

Wish T-6: 53.18%

Eileen T-22: 13.82%

Ferrari T-39: 25.01%

Furiosa T-190: 17.41%

 

The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes T-1: 58.41% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 69% chance of 30M, 30% chance of 40M, 26% chance of 50M, 17% chance of 60M

Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M

 

Thanksgiving T-1: 47.88% Awareness

Final Awareness: 85% chance of 10M, 56% chance of 20M, 32% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M

Horror Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 71% chance of 20M, 29% chance of 40M

 

Trolls Band Together T-1: 58.11% Awareness

Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 91% chance of 20M, 69% chance of 30M, 30% chance of 40M, 26% chance of 50M, 17% chance of 60M

Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M

 

Next Goal Wins T-1: 22.35% Awareness

Final Awareness: 15% chance of 10M

Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

 

Migration T-36: 26.68% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 54% chance of 10M, 19% chance of 20M, 4% chance of 40M

Animation/Family Awareness: 50% chance of 20M

[DAJK]

BC UPDATE (THURSDAY, 10PM PST)

 

Just a super quick analysis since I have a lesson I need to get ready for my Grade 10s in the morning.

 

Hunger Games - not as walkup friendly as I was hoping, however it did scrape by Captain Marvel in local comps. Going to guess 5M previews on the nose, 40-44M weekend.

 

Thanksgiving - not great. That being said, as @Eric Gray Baird mentioned, Thanksgiving was over a month ago in Canada. Well behind Saw X and most other big horror comps this year. Going to go with 700k previews, since I recognize that my area is likely under indexing. 7-10M weekend.

 

Next Goal Wins - I don’t even know what the theater count for this is. It didn’t do terribly here, but not great either. Maybe my expectations were just SUPER low. Going with 350k previews and 4M weekend.
 

 

[misterpepp]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Next Goal Wins - I don’t even know what the theater count for this is.

 

2,240 domestic locations 

Edited November 17, 2023 by misterpepp

[Liiviig 1998]

Deadline estimates .

 

BOSS - 5.75-6m

Trolls. - 2m

 

[Hilts]

Ferrari seems to be on sale at MTC1 - previews starting from 3pm on Sunday 24th Dec.

[Youngstar]

1 hour ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Deadline estimates .

 

BOSS - 5.75-6m

Trolls. - 2m

 

It's kinda a Pet Peeve of mine, but the offical abbreviation is TBOSAS ^^

[charlie Jatinder]

Hunger Games MiniTC2

Previews -  8338/43912 (174 showings)
 

Meh walkups. Would normally suggest $4.9-5.2M previews.

FRI looked strong until now, but today increase was meh. Probably something like $11-12M.

[Porthos]

On 11/13/2023 at 12:58 AM, Porthos said:

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-18 days and counting

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	67	9555	10271	716	6.97%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Thursday	2
Total Seats Removed Since Thursday	340
Total Seats Sold Since Thursday	18

 

Percentage of sales versus TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.70403x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.36m] [1.2x adj]

 

Next update Thursday night.

 

Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report:

T-14 days and counting

 

 

	Capped	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	0	66	9419	10153	734	7.23%

 

Total Showings Removed Since Sunday	1
Total Seats Removed Since Sunday	118
Total Seats Sold Since Sunday	18

 

Percentage of sales versus TET's Thursday Preview FINAL:

0.72173x The Era Tours Final Previews [2.43m] [1.2x adj]

 

--

 

Before anyone asks, no real change in thoughts since this time Sunday/last week. 

 

Next update Sunday night.

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Hunger Games MiniTC2

Previews -  8338/43912 (174 showings)
 

Meh walkups. Would normally suggest $4.9-5.2M previews.

FRI looked strong until now, but today increase was meh. Probably something like $11-12M.

That would actually make sub-$40M a very realistic possibility. 😬

 

Both this and The Marvels struggling to reach $100M totals is definitely not something people were predicting a month ago.

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

That would actually make sub-$40M a very realistic possibility. 😬

 

Both this and The Marvels struggling to reach $100M totals is definitely not something people were predicting a month ago.

People will have the wrong takeaways from this in certain corners of the internet.

[jeffthehat]

23 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

 

Hunger Games BoSS T-0

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 25

Seats sold - 936

Total seats - 4428

New sales - 176 (+23.2%)

 

Comps

 

0.98x The Marvels T-0 = $6.47m

1.23x FNaF T-0 = $12.65m

0.19x Barbie T-0 (single theater) = $4.09m 

2.47x Eras Thu T-0 = $6.92m / $3.8m ATP adjusted

0.16x Eras Fri T-0 = $5.47m / $3.01m ATP adjusted 

 

Avg = $6m 

---

 

Decent finish. Friday sales are slightly ahead of Marvels here, and MTC-1 Fri looks about even with Marvels too. So $20m+ Thu/Fri looks likely.

 

OW will depend on Sat/Sun. I could see something like 6m/15.5m/17.5m/12.5m happening for $50m+, but mid-40s still looks the likeliest outcome to me. 

 

 

 

 

Hunger Games BoSS Friday T-0

 

Coverage - 10/33 Malco theaters

Show count - 92

Seats sold - 2286

New sales - 968 (+73%)

 

Comps

 

1.22x The Marvels T-0 = $18.3m

0.69x FNaF T-0 = $20.5m

0.38x Eras Fri T-0 = $13.5m / $7.4m ATP adjusted (-45%)

 

Avg = $15.4m

---

 

Friday still looks strong here. Sold about 200 more tickets than Marvels did on the final day. But could be overperforming. Let's see. 

[filmlover]

23 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

People will have the wrong takeaways from this in certain corners of the internet.

I'm howling at the thought of those obnoxious YouTube personalities basking in the underwhelming performance of Hunger Games and trying to pin it on Zegler when the real lead of the movie is actually a white dude.

[SpiderByte]

15 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I'm howling at the thought of those obnoxious YouTube personalities basking in the underwhelming performance of Hunger Games and trying to pin it on Zegler when the real lead of the movie is actually a white dude.

It's kind of like the Kathleen Kennedy stuff where there are legitimate reasons why Lucasfilm would probably benefit from a change of leadership, but also the second they do it'll activate the most unhinged conspiracy elements of the Star Wars fandom with tons of ridiculous bullshit

Edited November 17, 2023 by SpiderByte

[Porthos]

19 hours ago, M37 said:

Open question (at least to me) is whether it stays on the lower PSM range ($51-$54/tix), or into the higher end ($55-$58/tix).  Based on the regional numbers I'm expecting the higher end, so ~100K tix at like ~$57/$58 PSM (similar to Barbie and FNAF) = ~$5.75M or so as the reported preview number.

 

17 hours ago, M37 said:

Assuming MTC1 comes in the ~100K final mark I have penciled in, the final comp average for HG:BoSS would land at $5.71M (which is coincidentally where Minny (MSP) ended up, the only market for which there is no final update, so no effect on the average)

 

Quote

UPDATED EXCLUSIVE, Friday AM: Lionsgate‘s Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes’ Thursday is officially $5.75M.

 

Score one for The Matrix. 👍

Edited November 17, 2023 by Porthos

[whatsupdoc]

The Quorum's Opening Weekend Projections:

 

HUNGER GAMES: BALLAD OF SONGBIRDS AND SNAKES: $45M - $54M (down from last week)

NEXT GOAL WINS: $1M - $3M (flat)

THANKSGIVING $8M - $10M (down)

TROLLS BAND TOGETHER: $22M - $27M (down)

NAPOLEON: $12M - $14M (FSS) (up)

WISH: $33M - $38M (FSS) (down)

SILENT NIGHT: $7M - $9M (down)

BOY AND THE HERON: $2M - $4M (flat)

WONKA: $24M - $27M (UP)

ANYONE BUT YOU: $2M - $4M (flat)

AQUAMAN 2: $35M - $44M (flat)

THE IRON CLAW: $2M - $4M (flat)

MIGRATION: $12M - $16M (down)

BOYS IN THE BOAT: $3M - $5M (NEW)

THE COLOR PURPLE: $16M - $19M (NEW)

FERRARI: $5M - $7M (NEW)

 

[TheFlatLannister]

17 hours ago, M37 said:

Assuming MTC1 comes in the ~100K final mark I have penciled in, the final comp average for HG:BoSS would land at $5.71M (which is coincidentally where Minny (MSP) ended up, the only market for which there is no final update, so no effect on the average)

Box Office: ‘Hunger Games: Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes’ Makes $5.75 Million in Previews

 

 

23 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

(0.556x) of TLM $5.73M Previews

(0.574x) of FNAF $5.91M Previews

(0.827x) of The Marvels $5.46M Previews

Comps AVG: $5.70M

 

All comps pointing to sub $6M previews. I'll go with $5.5M +/- $0.2M

Not a strong finish like I anticipated a week ago 

Edited November 17, 2023 by TheFlatLannister

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

 

 

Score one for The Matrix. 👍

MTC under indexed huge. Not just MTC1(which did not hit 100K as @M37 put above). MTC2 I was able to pull in late yesterday was just at 61544/308662 794611.34 2423 shows. I think Canada is the reason why this went so high . 

[vafrow]

44 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC under indexed huge. Not just MTC1(which did not hit 100K as @M37 put above). MTC2 I was able to pull in late yesterday was just at 61544/308662 794611.34 2423 shows. I think Canada is the reason why this went so high . 

 

Not my region.

 

@Tinalera had some quick pulls from more Urban Toronto and Vancouver that brought this more in line with US markets, but nothing that would suggest an overindex.

 

But, we're not running with great samples up here at the moment, so it's possible. But I struggle to think of what pockets in Canada would embrace this at elevated levels, and I can't think of any.

 

Edit: for reference, using only FNAF and Marvels as comps for my data set, my T-1 was $3.7M. Other markets were doing about 20-30% higher on a tickets per showtime level, so it brought it closer to standard, but still below.

Edited November 17, 2023 by vafrow

[vafrow]

On another note, in light of the critic response on Wish, I went to look up what the last time (outside of 2020), where no film released in Q4 crossed $200M domestic, and it was 2008. The time before that was 1998.

 

We're really in some interesting times right now.