The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[Poseidon]

Please Delete! Deouble Post!

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Poseidon

[Poseidon]

37 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Summer and beyond doesn't look too bad, does it? And every year, there are surprises that pop up from indie studios.

Well, It depends. 

 

I just had a random look into 2013.

It turned out to have the following movies in Summer:

Iron Man 3
Despicable Me 2
Man of Steel
Monsters University
Fast 6
Star Trek into Darkness
World War Z
The Heat
We're the Millers (Yeah, Comedy was a thing back then!)
The Great Gatsby
The Conjuring
Grown Ups 2
Wolverine
Now you See me
The Butler
Hangover 3
Epic
Pacific Rim
This is the End

And that's only Movies doing $100m.

 

I had a look at my personal prediction for 2013 in December 2012, and it looked like this (summer Movies in bold)

 

1	425	Iron Man 3
2	350	Die Tribute von Panem 2
3	325	Ich - Einfach unverbesserlich 2
3	325	Der Hobbit 2
5	300	Star Trek 2
5	300	Man of Steel
7	260	Die Monster Uni
8	200	Gravity
8	200	Thor 2
10	185	Fast & Furious 6
11	175	Epic
11	175	The Wolverine
11	175	White House Down
13	165	Die Croods
14	160	Frozen
15	155	G.I. Joe 2
16	150	Die zauberhafte Welt von Oz
16	150	Hangover 3
16	150	The End of the World
16	150	Cloudy 2
16	150	The Heat
16	150	After Earth

 

 

So as you can see, i went with 13 movies crossing $150m that summer. Obviously, I was off by quite a bit on some, quite good on others. Looking at 2024 thoug, well, I really struggle to even find 5 movies I see crossing $150m with confidence. Those would be Deadpool 3, Despicable Me 4, Furiosa and Inside Out 2 and maybe Bad Boys 4, but I wouldn't bet my house on that one. Garfield would be a good bet as well, but am I certain? No, not really. 

That's why 2024 is different from everything we knew by quite a margin. It's a lack of movies, paired with a lack of sequels, that leaves a pretty uncertain future. As I said, it leaves a path for excitement and surprises, but all the Unknowns have to deliver. And there is no much room for failure. 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Poseidon

[MysteryMovieMogul]

34 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Well, It depends. 

 

I just had a random look into 2013.

It turned out to have the following movies in Summer:

Iron Man 3
Despicable Me 2
Man of Steel
Monsters University
Fast 6
Star Trek into Darkness
World War Z
The Heat
We're the Millers (Yeah, Comedy was a thing back then!)
The Great Gatsby
The Conjuring
Grown Ups 2
Wolverine
Now you See me
The Butler
Hangover 3
Epic
Pacific Rim
This is the End

And that's only Movies doing $100m.

 

I had a look at my personal prediction for 2013 in December 2012, and it looked like this (summer Movies in bold)

 

1	425	Iron Man 3
2	350	Die Tribute von Panem 2
3	325	Ich - Einfach unverbesserlich 2
3	325	Der Hobbit 2
5	300	Star Trek 2
5	300	Man of Steel
7	260	Die Monster Uni
8	200	Gravity
8	200	Thor 2
10	185	Fast & Furious 6
11	175	Epic
11	175	The Wolverine
11	175	White House Down
13	165	Die Croods
14	160	Frozen
15	155	G.I. Joe 2
16	150	Die zauberhafte Welt von Oz
16	150	Hangover 3
16	150	The End of the World
16	150	Cloudy 2
16	150	The Heat
16	150	After Earth

 

 

So as you can see, i went with 13 movies crossing $150m that summer. Obviously, I was off by quite a bit on some, quite good on others. Looking at 2024 thoug, well, I really struggle to even find 5 movies I see crossing $150m with confidence. Those would be Deadpool 3, Despicable Me 4, Furiosa and Inside Out 2 and maybe Bad Boys 4, but I wouldn't bet my house on that one. Garfield would be a good bet as well, but am I certain? No, not really. 

That's why 2024 is different from everything we knew by quite a margin. It's a lack of movies, paired with a lack of sequels, that leaves a pretty uncertain future. As I said, it leaves a path for excitement and surprises, but all the Unknowns have to deliver. And there is no much room for failure. 

 

Oh wow, 2024 is bleak.

[cannastop]

This might not be the right place for this but in preparation for the Soul, Turning Red, and Luca re-releases I did some digging into recent re-releases.

 

Avatar in September 2022: $10,529,576 OW/$24,714,024 DOM

Titanic in February 2023: $6,714,684 OW/$15,033,795 DOM

The Nightmare Before Christmas in October 2023: $4,292,207 OW/$10,251,956 DOM

 

All three of these have multipliers between 2.30X and 2.45X

 

Kind of impressive consistency and a large multi for a re-release.

[MovieMan89]

Turning Red could do something.  Luca needs to be in the summer, it’s just a summer movie through and through. I think Soul is too mature, unless adults really show up. 

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Turning Red could do something.  Luca needs to be in the summer, it’s just a summer movie through and through. I think Soul is too mature, unless adults really show up. 

Luca can't be in the summer because Inside Out 2 needs to be there more.

[AniNate]

I think Luca works as a "spring break" movie too, I'm sure that's why they decided to put it after Turning Red. Obviously they don't want to cramp Inside Out 2's style.

 

Don't think Disney's really sweating the box office takes for any of them though, they'll be solid extra marketing vehicles for IO2 and maybe the Win or Lose D+ series.

 

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by AniNate

[MovieMan89]

49 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Luca can't be in the summer because Inside Out 2 needs to be there more.

It can be in August, which is the perfect time for it. It’s a dog days vibe all the way. 

[cannastop]

9 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

It can be in August, which is the perfect time for it. It’s a dog days vibe all the way. 

August is when school starts in a lot of the country also would be out of sync with the other re releases.

[emoviefan]

4 hours ago, Eric Wonka said:

Quorum Updates

The Boys in the Boat T-0: 27.87% Awareness

The Color Purple T-0: 51.33%

Ferrari T-0: 34.02%

The Beekeeper T-18: 36.07%

I.S.S. T-25: 20.8%

Arthur the King T-88: 25.17%

The Watchers T-165: 28.28%

The Bikeriders T-179: 14.17%

 

Night Swim T-11: 32.85% Awareness

Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M

Horror Awareness: 45% chance of 10M, 9% chance of 20M

 

Argylle T-39: 18.88% Awareness

T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M

Medium Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

Still scratching my head at Universal/Apple's handling of Argyle. When they dropped that first trailer back in September it seemed like they were really going to push it hard and all of a sudden when the second trailer and push should be hitting they have gone radio silent except for a poster. Maybe the simplest explanation is that it just plains sucks. So why not just dump it on Apple+ ala Ghosted and Family Plan. Weird.

[MovieMan89]

10 minutes ago, cannastop said:

August is when school starts in a lot of the country also would be out of sync with the other re releases.

Thats ok, it’s not like kids movies have never done well during school. I think it’s a nice tome of year to not have to worry about major comp either. As I’ve mentioned, releasing them all together is stupid imo. They ensure there’s no chance of all of them doing well. 

[Mau]

1 hour ago, AniNate said:

I think Luca works as a "spring break" movie too, I'm sure that's why they decided to put it after Turning Red. Obviously they don't want to cramp Inside Out 2's style.

 

Don't think Disney's really sweating the box office takes for any of them though, they'll be solid extra marketing vehicles for IO2 and maybe the Win or Lose D+ series.

 

 

Do you guys know which countries will get these releases?

 

So far I have just seen announcement for Latin America, The US and Japan. 

[cannastop]

Just now, Mau said:

Do you guys know which countries will get these releases?

 

So far I have just seen announcement for Latin America, The US and Japan. 

that's all I've seen too.

[Mau]

32 minutes ago, cannastop said:

that's all I've seen too.

At least in latin America Luca will get holy Week to get some extra money during weekdays 

[Boxofficerules]

How's Night Swim looking?

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Still scratching my head at Universal/Apple's handling of Argyle. When they dropped that first trailer back in September it seemed like they were really going to push it hard and all of a sudden when the second trailer and push should be hitting they have gone radio silent except for a poster. Maybe the simplest explanation is that it just plains sucks. So why not just dump it on Apple+ ala Ghosted and Family Plan. Weird.

The theatrical release will give it extra exposure (or at least an added aura of being a legitimate movie) for when it eventually lands on their streaming service. Same thing they're doing with the Clooney/Pitt and Johansson/Tatum movies that will also be released by Sony. That's probably the best you can hope for in this climate in which moviegoing has clearly become more of a niche hobby.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

The theatrical release will give it extra exposure (or at least an added aura of being a legitimate movie) for when it eventually lands on their streaming service. Same thing they're doing with the Clooney/Pitt and Johansson/Tatum movies that will also be released by Sony. That's probably the best you can hope for in this climate in which moviegoing has clearly become more of a niche hobby.

Yeah I get all that. But in order to get that  extra exposure  and make it seem legitimate some actual effort in the marketing would probably help. Otherwise they might as well of just dumped it straight to the streaming service. Which may be the whole problem with moviegoing right now. You got to get people excited to go the movies. Barbenheimer , Mario Bro's, Avatar WOW, TG Maverick, No Way Home all proved it can be done. 

[Kon]

Wrong thread.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Kon

[JonathanMB]

11 hours ago, emoviefan said:

Still scratching my head at Universal/Apple's handling of Argyle. When they dropped that first trailer back in September it seemed like they were really going to push it hard and all of a sudden when the second trailer and push should be hitting they have gone radio silent except for a poster. Maybe the simplest explanation is that it just plains sucks. So why not just dump it on Apple+ ala Ghosted and Family Plan. Weird.

 

I think the first trailer was released late enough that they didn't feel the need for a second full trailer, and will just wait until tickets go on sale to release another piece3 of marketing. And that single trailer has been pushed very hard over the last three months, to the point that it's a bit of a meme on Film Twitter. I have to imagine they're just waiting for all of the holiday movies to have their moment before going full steam ahead.

 

Regarding the Pixar movies, I wouldn't overthink their release strategy too much; I think Disney just suddenly realized that they had nothing coming out in the 1st quarter of 2024 and figured that "re-releasing" these could be easy money.

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

 

I think the first trailer was released late enough that they didn't feel the need for a second full trailer, and will just wait until tickets go on sale to release another piece3 of marketing. And that single trailer has been pushed very hard over the last three months, to the point that it's a bit of a meme on Film Twitter. I have to imagine they're just waiting for all of the holiday movies to have their moment before going full steam ahead.

 

Regarding the Pixar movies, I wouldn't overthink their release strategy too much; I think Disney just suddenly realized that they had nothing coming out in the 1st quarter of 2024 and figured that "re-releasing" these could be easy money.

 

Exactly.  It's just about the quarterly stock report having something positive to report from theatrical releases.  They will only make what AMC/Regal subscribers who use "free" tickets will get them, since no GA movie goer, sans a rabid Disney fan, will pay full price anyway.  So, the release dates don't matter much...