The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[jeffthehat]

22 hours ago, jeffthehat said:

Gonna overindex here. But I'm reading it as a positive sign, as this chain is mostly tiny cities in the South. A lot of markets are pointing to sub-$10m at finish, but also seeing a lot of $11m+. Truth is probably in the middle, so I'll go $10.1m +/- 0.4m today. 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

On 2/28/2024 at 1:37 AM, Issac Newton said:

Last Sunday yielded $2M from an Imax Fans First Event which will be rolled up into Thursday’s number. 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Based on nos. I am seeing its 2-2.1 + 9-9.1 = 11-11.2. There is MTC 1 actuals that are pending, which will get clarified by tomorrow morning.

Either WB messed up something or there were some other shows. I don't have info on MTC1 but on Wed $25K is there, may be MTC 1 had more shows.

[keysersoze123]

Definitely some rounding happened and Dune did have late shows that could have added more than say other comps. Still dont see 12m for sure unless MTC2 and Canada etc over performed big time. Did @rehpyc update from his end?

[excel1]

WB bought $800k worth of tickets at last minute to get the right headline.

[keysersoze123]

12 hours ago, JimmyB said:

Ghostbusters has a big fanbase. Had to go back because for some reason I remember people being surprised by the day 1 sales of Afterlife.  Keysersoze called it's opening correctly first day of sales

 

Ghostbusters Afterlife MTC1

Previews(T-17) - 10849/337977 190041.99 1599 shows

Friday(T-18) - 6398/515675 106157.10 2388 shows

 

Not bad at all. Definitely see it opening above 40m as I posted earlier. Let us see how things move for this. Nostalgia FTW.

 

 

This wont be frontloaded when its comes to its IM. So it needs 4m to hit 40m. For that it needs 75K in MTC1. I cant see it missing from here. Let us see how things go rest of its Presales. 

 

 

 

 

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1 Friday - 6189/582486 105498.17 3059 shows

 

It actually ran just now. So Friday is below Afterlife. As I said yesterday, its IM wont be that good. So I am expecting lower OW than Afterlife at this point.  

[dallas]

Either some rounding happened or high ATP pushed the final far closer to $10M than anticipated. Either way, this should still lead to an $80M weekend. 

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Dune: Part 2	PLF	28	1,607	1,607	7,132	22.53%
		Standard	64	551	551	7,319	7.53%
	Total		92	2,158	2,158	14,451	14.93%

 

T-0 comps

 - Oppenheimer - .941x (9.88m)

 - Avatar 2 - .384x (6.53m)

 - Top Gun 2- .422x (6.2m)

 - Nope - 1.7x (10.87m)

 

I lean much more on the Oppy comp than anything else.  I will also note that one of the theaters isn't loading any showtimes for today.  It had 106 sales in two shows for Oppy previews.  I'm not sure if they are closed today, if the site is just down, or what happened but I could be missing some sales.  Either way, I'm still leaning around 9.5m previews

Santikos Tracking

 

Day	Movie	Format	Shows	New	Sold	True Cap	% Sold
T-0	Dune: Part 2 (Fri)	PLF	58		2,757	12,617	21.85%
		Standard	94		1,031	10,626	9.70%
	Total		152		3,788	23,243	16.30%

 

T-0 comps

 - Oppenheimer - .865x (19.46m)

 - Avatar 2 - .471x (17.32m)

 - Top Gun 2 - .448x (14.67m)

 - Nope - 2.044x (26.86m)

 

Adjusted comps

 - Oppenheimer - 19.69m

 - Avatar 2 - 26.1m

 - Top Gun 2 - 23.65m

 - Nope - 24.72m

 

Oppenheimer was the closest previews comp as expected, coming in just ahead.  This puts Friday in an interesting position, because everything else is adjusting to much higher totals if they have the same multiplier that Thursday did.  I think the wisest thing to do would be throw out the other comps and go with something around 19.5m true Friday.

[charlie Jatinder]

Oppy / Dune 2

1 - 3.12 / 2.88 tracked, actual may be 2.75. waiting for them.

2 - 2.05 / 1.68
3 - 1.65 / 1.35

 

Canada 2 chains - 0.93 / 0.93

[dallas]

1 minute ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Oppy / Dune 2

1 - 3.12 / 2.88 tracked, actual may be 2.75. waiting for them.

2 - 2.05 / 1.68
3 - 1.65 / 1.35

 

Canada 2 chains - 0.93 / 0.93

Wait, I'm confused, what are these numbers referring to?

[charlie Jatinder]

Just now, dallas said:

Wait, I'm confused, what are these numbers referring to?

Won't tell, don't ask

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 2/29/2024 at 9:32 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-7	Jax	5	39	4	65	4,580	1.42%
		Phx	6	29	12	100	4,685	2.13%
		Ral	8	44	5	124	5,047	2.46%
	Total		19	112	21	289	14,312	2.02%

 

T-7 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .66x (2.05m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .398x (2.49m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .361x (2.02m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .691x (3.8m)

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kung Fu Panda 4	T-6	Jax	5	39	1	66	4,580	1.44%
		Phx	6	32	17	117	5,003	2.34%
		Ral	8	44	6	130	5,047	2.58%
	Total		19	115	24	313	14,630	2.14%

 

T-6 comps

 - Haunted Mansion (Total) - .61x (1.91m)

 - Sonic 2 (Total) - .394x (2.46m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .343x (1.92m)

 - Lightyear (Total) - .564x (3.1m)

 - Elemental - 1.44x (3.45m)

[charlie Jatinder]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1 Friday - 6189/582486 105498.17 3059 shows

 

It actually ran just now. So Friday is below Afterlife. As I said yesterday, its IM wont be that good. So I am expecting lower OW than Afterlife at this point.  

I remember Zack added more cinemas during either DS2 or Thor. Not sure if you were covering them before he started tracking or not.

[lorddemaxus]

2 minutes ago, dallas said:

Wait, I'm confused, what are these numbers referring to?

Looks like Thursday preview break down by chain.

[titanic2187]

10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Definitely some rounding happened and Dune did have late shows that could have added more than say other comps. Still dont see 12m for sure unless MTC2 and Canada etc over performed big time. Did @rehpyc update from his end?

Even with rounding up, I seriously can’t see the round up to be anything more than 300k. There just isn’t much incentive or benefit for them to round up this much and there is plenty of record that WB is ok to report a preview with decimal without having them to round up to the next round number.
 

 

[Last Man Standing]

I can see fudging to reach double figures, or fudging the entire weekend, but why would they bother to fudge from like 10m to 12m when no-one outside of this forum even cares about the difference between the two?

[MightyDargon]

1 minute ago, Last Man Standing said:

I can see fudging to reach double figures, or fudging the entire weekend, but why would they bother to fudge from like 10m to 12m when no-one outside of this forum even cares about the difference between the two?

No one said they were doing that. Jat claimed a little over 11mil and the official estimate is 12 mil. Nobody gave an official estimate of 10mil except for Deadline's usual bad numbers.

[charlie Jatinder]

Previews are estimates. They can be off at times. No big deal. The Force Awaken actuals were around $54M vs $57M that was first reported. 

The opening day including previews is actuals.

[M37]

There were brief reports of $11M before WB came out and "officially" called it $12, and .... yeah, the $12M does feel like a round up to me, perhaps by a decent amount.  Not sure why WB would do that, very few people would care about the distinction between those two values, and like Charlie said its all going to wind up in the Friday total anyway.

 

But personally I'm going to be putting an asterisk there and probably using a lower number for comp purposes moving forward. [Number TBD after seeing Fri & Sat values]

 

 

[Firepower]

46 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire MTC1 Friday - 6189/582486 105498.17 3059 shows

 

It actually ran just now. So Friday is below Afterlife. As I said yesterday, its IM wont be that good. So I am expecting lower OW than Afterlife at this point.  

Flop.