The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/24/2024 at 7:54 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-8	Jax	6	36	0	19	6,208	0.31%
		Phx	7	24	2	47	4,147	1.13%
		Ral	8	31	4	53	4,762	1.11%
	Total		21	91	6	119	15,117	0.79%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-7	Jax	5	10	6	44	2,007	2.19%
		Phx	1	2	4	22	618	3.56%
		Ral	2	2	0	21	412	5.10%
	Total		8	14	10	87	3,037	2.86%
Tarot	T-8	Jax	5	21	0	5	1,752	0.29%
		Phx	6	16	2	8	2,534	0.32%
		Ral	7	18	0	7	2,268	0.31%
	Total		18	55	2	20	6,554	0.31%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-8 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.543x (4.2m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.561x (4.38m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .652x (3.07m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.373x (3.24m)

 - Civil War - 1.609x (4.67m)

 - Free Guy - 1.648x (3.77m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.47m

 

Tarot T-8 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - .556x (417k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .189x (502k)

 - Abigail - .625x (625k)

 - Talk to Me - .541x (673k)

 - The First Omen - 1.11x (806k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 687k

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-7	Jax	6	36	5	24	6,208	0.39%
		Phx	7	24	2	49	4,147	1.18%
		Ral	8	31	2	55	4,762	1.15%
	Total		21	91	9	128	15,117	0.85%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-6	Jax	5	10	3	47	2,007	2.34%
		Phx	1	2	1	23	618	3.72%
		Ral	2	2	2	23	412	5.58%
	Total		8	14	6	93	3,037	3.06%
Tarot	T-7	Jax	5	21	0	5	1,752	0.29%
		Phx	6	16	1	9	2,534	0.36%
		Ral	7	18	0	7	2,268	0.31%
	Total		18	55	1	21	6,554	0.32%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-7 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.483x (4.1m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.426x (4m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .619x (2.92m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.339x (3.16m)

 - Civil War - 1.356x (3.93m)

 - Free Guy - 1.381x (3.16m)

 - Ticket to Paradise (Total) - 3.453x (3.9m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .913x (3.59m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.36m

 

Tarot T-7 adjusted comps

 - Last Voyage - .42x (315k)

 - M3GAN - missed

 - Black Phone - .178x (474k)

 - Abigail - .568x (568k)

 - Talk to Me - .467x (581k)

 - The First Omen - 1.167x (846k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 680k

[katnisscinnaplex]

On 4/18/2024 at 8:48 AM, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-21	Jax	5	47	2	53	8,044	0.66%
		Phx	6	40	1	68	7,757	0.88%
		Ral	8	42	0	51	6,233	0.82%
	Total		19	129	3	172	22,034	0.78%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-20	Jax	5	9	1	77	1,802	4.27%
		Phx	1	2	0	23	618	3.72%
		Ral	2	2	0	38	412	9.22%
	Total		8	13	1	138	2,832	4.87%

 

T-21 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.422x

 - M:I 7 Total - .618x (5.43m)

 - F9 - 1.14x (8.58m)

 - Shazam 2 - 1.12x (3.81m)

 - Eternals - .315x (3.11m)

 

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Kingdom of Apes	T-14	Jax	5	47	0	70	8,044	0.87%
		Phx	6	40	-1	72	7,757	0.93%
		Ral	8	42	4	64	6,233	1.03%
	Total		19	129	3	206	22,034	0.93%
Kingdom of Apes (EA)	T-13	Jax	5	9	4	90	1,802	4.99%
		Phx	1	2	4	36	618	5.83%
		Ral	2	2	2	49	412	11.89%
	Total		8	13	10	175	2,832	6.18%

 

T-14 (Total) adjusted comps

 - Fall Guy (Total) - 2.702x

 - M:I 7 (Total) - .552x (4.86m)

 - F9 - .668x (5.03m)

 - Dune - .907x (4.81m)

 - NTTD (Total) - .807x (5.28m)

 - John Wick 4 - .528x (4.7m)

 - TMNT (Total) - .804x (4.77m)

 - Fantastic Beasts 3 - .805x (4.95m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 5.01m

 

Lots of comps coming in around 5m currently.  

[katnisscinnaplex]

23 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Santikos Tracking

 

Unsung Hero (EA) - 632/1,378

 - Downton (EA) - 3.63x (3.27m)

 - Top Gun (EA) - .46x (2.12m)

 - M:I 7 (EA) - .507x (1.22m)

 

Unsung Hero (Previews) - 52/2,074

 - Downton - .264x (277k)

 - Crawdads - .139x (278k)

 - Easter Sunday - .945x (473k)

 

Challengers (Previews) - 79/5,541

 - Massive Talent - 1.795x (1.5m)

 - Ticket to Paradise - .454x (500k)

 

Don't really have any good comps here

 

Boy Kills World (Previews) - 6/1,488

 - Ambulance - .6x (420k)

Santikos Tracking

 

Unsung Hero - 55/2,220

 - Downton - .228x (240k)

 - Crawdads - .107x (214k)

 - Easter Sunday - .833x (417k)

 

Challengers - 118/5,701

 - Massive Talent - 1.422x (1.19m)

 - Monkey Man - 1.18x (1.65m)

 - Ungentlemanly Warfare - 1.76x (1.5m)

 

Boy Kills World - 12/1,488

 - Massive Talent - .145x (121k)

 - Ambulance - .333x (233k)

 

I'm thinking all three movies are underperforming here for some reason.  Just adding them for future comp usage.

[emoviefan]

1 hour ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Fall Guy	T-7	Jax	6	36	5	24	6,208	0.39%
		Phx	7	24	2	49	4,147	1.18%
		Ral	8	31	2	55	4,762	1.15%
	Total		21	91	9	128	15,117	0.85%
Fall Guy (EA)	T-6	Jax	5	10	3	47	2,007	2.34%
		Phx	1	2	1	23	618	3.72%
		Ral	2	2	2	23	412	5.58%
	Total		8	14	6	93	3,037	3.06%
Tarot	T-7	Jax	5	21	0	5	1,752	0.29%
		Phx	6	16	1	9	2,534	0.36%
		Ral	7	18	0	7	2,268	0.31%
	Total		18	55	1	21	6,554	0.32%

 

Fall Guy (Total) T-7 adjusted comps

 - Monkey Man - 2.483x (4.1m)

 - Jungle Cruise - 1.426x (4m)

 - Bullet Train (Total) - .619x (2.92m)

 - Cocaine Bear - 1.339x (3.16m)

 - Civil War - 1.356x (3.93m)

 - Free Guy - 1.381x (3.16m)

 - Ticket to Paradise (Total) - 3.453x (3.9m)

 - Lost City (Total) - .913x (3.59m)

 

Size adjusted comps - 3.36m

 

 

As people said to me yesterday Just got to chill out. It is what it is.It ain't the end of the world.  Hope for the best with WOM and legs.

[JimmyB]

I know its only one theater but if this forum says a movies presales are popping I like checking my local Cinemark and will see sales are doing great like the forum says.  This theater is probably the busiest theater in Jacksonville and its in a nice area of town...lots of homes, apartments, restaurants and a huge outdoor mall.  The area would be the prime demo for a movie like Fall Guy,

 

Fall Guy sales are just DOA.

5 sales for two showtimes 5/1 early access. 

5 sales for six showtimes 5/2 Thursday. 

 

 

https://www.cinemark.com/theatres/fl-jacksonville/cinemark-tinseltown-jacksonville-and-xd?showDate=2024-05-01

Edited April 25 by JimmyB

[filmlover]

 

[abracadabra1998]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

 

Very curious to see what kind of tracking this is because I find it hard to believe

[katnisscinnaplex]

1 hour ago, JimmyB said:

I know its only one theater but if this forum says a movies presales are popping I like checking my local Cinemark and will see sales are doing great like the forum says.  This theater is probably the busiest theater in Jacksonville and its in a nice area of town...lots of homes, apartments, restaurants and a huge outdoor mall.  The area would be the prime demo for a movie like Fall Guy,

 

Fall Guy sales are just DOA.

5 sales for two showtimes 5/1 early access. 

5 sales for six showtimes 5/2 Thursday. 

 

 

https://www.cinemark.com/theatres/fl-jacksonville/cinemark-tinseltown-jacksonville-and-xd?showDate=2024-05-01

That's one of the theaters in my Jacksonville sample

[filmlover]

What if (lol) our Savior of the Original Movie isn't The Fall Guy (which I don't believe has had an official tracking report in the trades yet), but IF. 

 

But I'm surprised people have been relatively down on it this whole time. It looks like a pleasant time at the movies, is the first kid-targeted movie in two months, the studio has been pushing the heck out of it this whole time, is probably the kind of non-Deadpool vehicle Reynolds would be a draw in, and the presence of him + so much notable talent involved should give it broader appeal beyond families. Have a feeling the reviews will be good too, or at least Paramount believes (or knows) they have a winner on their hands with how much they've been promoting it.

[Eric Loves Rey]

Just now, filmlover said:

What if (lol) our Savior of the Original Movie isn't The Fall Guy (which I don't believe has had an official tracking report in the trades yet), but IF. 

 

Says in the article you link Fall Guy's tracking for the 35M range

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, Eric Duncan said:

Says in the article you link Fall Guy's tracking for the 35M range

Yeah, I just noticed they snuck that in there. Still surprised that there never seemed to be any articles from the trades touting its tracking numbers given that movie has been trying to extend the Barbenheimer wave into an entirely new year.

 

Deadline is also saying $40M+ for IF, + $6-8M for Back to Black and $6-10M for The Strangers.

[AniNate]

8 minutes ago, filmlover said:

But I'm surprised people have been relatively down on it this whole time. It looks like a pleasant time at the movies, is the first kid-targeted movie in two months, the studio has been pushing the heck out of it this whole time, is probably the kind of non-Deadpool vehicle Reynolds would be a draw in, and the presence of him + so much notable talent involved should give it broader appeal beyond families. Have a feeling the reviews will be good too, or at least Paramount believes (or knows) they have a winner on their hands with how much they've been promoting it.

 

Definitely think the starved market factor will be a boon. It'll again be the first family movie in two months

[mikeymichael]

If Fall Guy doesn't open with 35M ain't no way If opens to anything more than 20-25. 

[AJG]

20 minutes ago, filmlover said:

What if (lol) our Savior of the Original Movie isn't The Fall Guy (which I don't believe has had an official tracking report in the trades yet), but IF. 

We might need to put “Not an Original Movie” on The Fall Guy thread title at this point.

 

 

[AniNate]

16 minutes ago, mikeymichael said:

If Fall Guy doesn't open with 35M ain't no way If opens to anything more than 20-25. 

 

The movies have nothing to do with each other

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, AJG said:

We might need to put “Not an Original Movie” on The Fall Guy thread title at this point.

 

 

It's real easy to forget that The Fall Guy is based on a now obscure TV show. 

[Cmasterclay]

My skepticism with IF was that the Reynolds snark seemed targeted towards a more adult audience than the extremely kiddie marketing would indicate, but at this point it is clear that marketing is everywhere and it is breaking through. I see it doing 100m+ domestic now. Fall Guy still have in EXACT range I've always had it - low 30s opening, around 100m total, exactly same as Lost City and Bullet Train.

[charlie Jatinder]

If IF opens $40M+ and DP3 tracking big, this will be a big summer for Ryan.

Edited April 25 by charlie Jatinder

[Cmasterclay]

Ryan Reynolds becoming such a potent and reliable box office draw is really whiplash from longtime posters who remember his streak of mega flops becoming a recurring joke around here for years.

[filmlover]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

My skepticism with IF was that the Reynolds snark seemed targeted towards a more adult audience than the extremely kiddie marketing would indicate, but at this point it is clear that marketing is everywhere and it is breaking through. I see it doing 100m+ domestic now. Fall Guy still have in EXACT range I've always had it - low 30s opening, around 100m total, exactly same as Lost City and Bullet Train.

Reynolds was the voice of Pikachu in the live-action Pokemon movie a few years back in addition to lending his voice to a handful of animated movies, so he's much more at home in a movie like this than his Deadpool/R-rated comedy history would indicate. Free Guy (which also leaned into his more innocuous comic sensibilities) made over $100M while the pandemic was still very much ongoing so at least similar numbers to that seems more than feasible.