The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[AniNate]

I think IF is going for a "primetime sitcom" audience as it were. They've been pushing the Office reunion angle in marketing.

[Flip]

1 hour ago, AJG said:

We might need to put “Not an Original Movie” on The Fall Guy thread title at this point.

 

 

It might as well be original, it’s not like the old IP is bringing anyone in.

[Eric Loves Rey]

42 minutes ago, Flip said:

It might as well be original, it’s not like the old IP is bringing anyone in.

A big part of the reason my mom wants to see Fall Guy is because it's based off that old 80s show. So there's one person out there. 

[TheFlatLannister]

16 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

 

CHALLENGERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-1

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
390	1918	74726	2.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 6:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

460

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

12

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-1

(0.623x) of Civil War $1.80M

(0.698x) of Argylle $1.19M

(1.107x) of Monkey Man $1.55M

Comps average: $1.51M

 

With EA sales baked in this should do $2M+

FLORIDA 

 

CHALLENGERS

 

Thursday 

 

T-0 *Final Update

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
390	2275	74726	3.0%

^{*numbers taken as of 3:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

357

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

SELLOUTS

0

 

COMPS

T-0

(0.529x) of Civil War $1.53M

(0.460x) of Mean Girls $1.51M

(1.077x) of Monkey Man $1.51M

Comps average: $1.52M

 

All comps converging at $1.5M 

Will probably be reported as $2M +/- $0.2M

[vafrow]

What's our latest expectation for IF tickets going on sale. 

 

That's a film that even if it does well, should have little up front demand. If it comes out of the gate with anything of substance, that's probably going to signal that it has some juice.

 

Given how Garfield has fallen flat and Fall Guy having been on sale for 6 weeks already, I hope at minimum it makes studios reconsider these long sales windows.

 

I don't think it changes too much in the end, but in a world of short attention spans, maybe don't try and sell a movie over a month out.

[Krissykins]

12 hours ago, vale9001 said:

 

but if i didn't get wrong people saying 750K is without previews of the previews. While people saying 2M it's with that included.

So it's more like 1.5M or 2M when you put everything together.

No. I seen $750k and £2m from Thursday alone, that’s why I posted the range, if you have another look. 
 

Glad some films are tracking half decently. $6-10m would be bleak for Back to Black and The Strangers Chapter 1 though. They need to step up the marketing, but Strangers is Lionsgate so they probably won’t bother advertising properly.  

[Porthos]

40 minutes ago, vafrow said:

What's our latest expectation for IF tickets going on sale. 

 

Monday (4/29) according to the tracking doc from @misterpepp and @katnisscinnaplex.

Edited April 25 by Porthos

[AniNate]

36 minutes ago, vafrow said:

Given how Garfield has fallen flat and Fall Guy having been on sale for 6 weeks already, I hope at minimum it makes studios reconsider these long sales windows.

 

I mean from their perspective I don't really see what the downside is still of an early sales window. It may make trackers anxious, but any ticket sold is extra money for them regardless of how far out it is. I'm sure they'd put tickets on sale a year before release if they could nail down exhibitor contracts that far in advance.

[katnisscinnaplex]

10 hours ago, katnisscinnaplex said:

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Boy Kills World	T-0	Jax	5	13	13	27	792	3.41%
		Phx	7	11	20	40	996	4.02%
		Ral	7	8	4	9	627	1.44%
	Total		19	32	37	76	2,415	3.15%
Challengers	T-0	Jax	5	22	37	81	4,088	1.98%
		Phx	7	28	50	186	3,468	5.36%
		Ral	7	20	50	122	2,948	4.14%
	Total		19	70	137	389	10,504	3.70%
Unsung Hero	T-0	Jax	5	18	0	64	2,011	3.18%
		Phx	6	14	2	43	2,172	1.98%
		Ral	8	16	11	71	1,536	4.62%
	Total		19	48	13	178	5,719	3.11%

 

Unsung Hero T-0 comps*

 - Jesus Revolution - .436x (410k)

 - Sound of Freedom - .054x (279k)

 - Left Behind - .392x (239k)

 - Downton Abbey - .298x (320k)

 - Respect - 1.186x (818k)

 - Cabrini - .706x (353k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 481k

Growth model forecast - 366k

 

*Switched to preview only comps

 

Challengers T-0 comps

 - I Wanna Dance - .977x (862k)

 - Elvis - .337x (1.3m)

 - Creed III - .301x (1.34m)

 - Lost City - .567x (1.71m)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 1.02x (1.2m)

 - Joy Ride - 3.71x (3.93m)

 - Strays - 1.706x (1.66m)

 - Gran Turismo - 1.247x (1.75m)

 - No Hard Feelings - .882x (1.93m)

 

Size adjusted comp - 1.65m

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Challengers	213.71%	30.65%	37.21%	54.37%
I Wanna Dance	99.00%	21.00%	24.05%	27.97%
Elvis	-	-	21.49%	34.07%
Creed III	141.04%	38.62%	33.43%	48.00%
Lost City	151.28%	25.64%	12.81%	42.03%
Magic Mike 3	70.85%	-	-	15.11%
Joy Ride	90.91%	20.00%	31.82%	36.36%
Strays	121.36%	32.04%	20.00%	49.02%
Gran Turismo	95.00%	35.00%	81.73%	20.00%
No Hard Feelings	384.62%	48.35%	70.21%	100.45%

 

Better day than all but NHF.  Looking for about +60% today that would finish at 1.7m true previews.

 

Boy Kills World T-0 comps

 - Vengeance - .835x

 - Bones and All - .8x (283k)

 - Reminiscence - .576x (340k)

 - Fabelmans - .962x (393k)

 - Operation Fortune - 1.41x (309k)

 - Antlers - .644x (253k)

 

Size adjusted comps - 318k

 

Movie	3-day pace	Prev 3-day	Prev 3-day	Last Day
Boy Kills World	245.45%	31.82%	53.33%	94.87%
Vengeance	237.04%	29.63%	63.16%	44.44%
Bones and All	137.50%	57.50%	-	37.68%
Reminiscence (Friday)	256.76%	45.95%	75.00%	80.82%
Fabelmans (Wed)	259.09%	18.18%	-	68.09%
Operation Fortune	350.00%	-	-	35.00%
Antlers	195.00%	-	-	61.64%

 

Actually beat all the comps yesterday, and 3-day pace is right in line.  Should be in the 350k range

Movie	Day	Area	TC	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Boy Kills World	1-Hr	Jax	5	13	15	42	792	5.30%
		Phx	7	11	14	54	996	5.42%
		Ral	7	8	16	25	627	3.99%
	Total		19	32	45	121	2,415	5.01%
Challengers	1-Hr	Jax	5	22	52	133	4,088	3.25%
		Phx	7	28	47	233	3,468	6.72%
		Ral	7	20	101	223	2,948	7.56%
	Total		19	70	200	589	10,504	5.61%
Unsung Hero	1-Hr	Jax	5	18	19	83	2,011	4.13%
		Phx	6	14	5	48	2,172	2.21%
		Ral	8	17	21	92	1,586	5.80%
	Total		19	49	45	223	5,769	3.87%

 

Unsung Hero T-1hr comps

 - Jesus Revolution - missed

 - Sound of Freedom - missed

 - Left Behind - .412x (252k)

 - Downton Abbey - .313x (337k)

 - Respect - .918x (632k)

 - Cabrini - .712x (356k)

All PG - 455k

All drama - 394k

All movies - 469k

 

Size adjusted comps - 535k

Growth model forecast - 635k

 

Comps are pretty scattered, so I'll just go with 500k true previews.***

 

Challengers T-1hr comps

 - I Wanna Dance - 1.166x (1.03m)

 - Elvis - .369x (1.43m)

 - Creed III - .275x (1.22m)

 - Lost City - .587x (1.77m)

 - Magic Mike 3 - 1.24x (1.46m)

 - Joy Ride - 2.93x (3.11m)

 - Strays - 1.688x (1.64m)

 - Gran Turismo - 1.318x (1.84m)

 - No Hard Feelings - .674x (1.47m)

All drama - 1.23m

All R movies - 1.63m

All 4pm previews - 1.44m

All movies - 1.48m

 

Size adjusted comp - 1.63m

Growth model forecast - 1.68m

 

Didn't get to +60%, but finished at +51%.  I'll go with 1.7m true previews anyway***

 

Boy Kills World T-1hr comps

 - Vengeance - .91x

 - Bones and All - missed

 - Reminiscence - missed

 - Fabelmans - missed

 - Operation Fortune - missed

 - Antlers - .637x (250k)

All action - 226k

All R movies - 283k

All 7pm previews - 256k

All movies - 254k

 

Not sure if this will get reported, but I'll go with 250k***

 

***Note: One of the larger theaters I track (in Phoenix) is marked as closed for tonight.  I left the tickets sold as of this morning, but that may keep all comps a little too low.

[emoviefan]

7 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:

My skepticism with IF was that the Reynolds snark seemed targeted towards a more adult audience than the extremely kiddie marketing would indicate, but at this point it is clear that marketing is everywhere and it is breaking through. I see it doing 100m+ domestic now. Fall Guy still have in EXACT range I've always had it - low 30s opening, around 100m total, exactly same as Lost City and Bullet Train.

If the budget was in the same 80-90 million range those two were that would be fine. It's that 125 million budget that's going to bite the Fall Guy and kill any franchise hope unless legs are really really great. With no massive 800lb movies in the month and good to great WOM still think it's possible.

[DAJK]

Not really seeing anything too special for Challengers here in BC. Most of my comps point to 1.4-1.5M today. Not a bad number all things considered, especially since most other comps are a bit higher. I have my doubts of this reaching 20M this weekend, but if it can manage it, bravo!

[Relevation]

Is anyone tracking the Phantom Menace re-release? It’s selling phenomenally in one of my friend’s markets for FRI, even outstripping Dune previews at the same point and it’s already well clear of Challengers, Argylle, and The Beekeeper’s entire runs at my market. Could be looking at a double digit debut.

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Not really seeing anything too special for Challengers here in BC. Most of my comps point to 1.4-1.5M today. Not a bad number all things considered, especially since most other comps are a bit higher. I have my doubts of this reaching 20M this weekend, but if it can manage it, bravo!

From early looks of MiniTC2, not many walkups. Sales here pointed low teens mostly. Think MTC1 will be overindexing like Monkey Man.

[Cmasterclay]

Oh great, more shitty bullshit.

[abracadabra1998]

On 4/21/2024 at 10:40 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-11):

Day: T-11, T-10	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	75	11	152	13674	1.11
Wednesday May 1 EA: 18 theaters	23	22	165	5090	3.24
TOTALS:	98	33	317	18764	1.69

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		123	6	80.92
MTC1:		103	9	67.76
Alamo:		18	0	11.84
Other chains:		31	2	20.39

 

Comps (combined EA + THU):

2.24x Monkey Man: $3.14 Million (17 theaters)

0.84x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $3.95 Million (17 theaters)

0.71x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $3.18 Million (17 theaters)

TMNT: Missed

 

Average: $3.42 Million

 

Tarot is now at 6 tickets sold lol

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-6	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	74	37	189	13546	1.4
Wednesday May 1 EA: 19 theaters	23	52	217	5129	4.23
TOTALS:	97	89	406	18675	2.17

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		152	29	80.42
MTC1:		127	24	67.2
Alamo:		18	0	9.52
Other chains:		44	13	23.28

 

Comps (combined EA + THU):

Monkey Man: Missed

1.31x Civil War: $3.8 Million

0.53x Godzilla v. King: $5.29 Million (17 theaters)

0.87x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $4.1 Million (17 theaters)

0.72x Madame Web (OD): $4.37 Million (17 theaters)

1.12x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.04 Million (17 theaters)

0.56x TMNT (w/ EA): $3.06 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $4.28 Million

 

I for sure messed up my Aquaman comp last update, I'm not sure what I did exactly but that was just totally off. A variety of comps here but trying to go with the blockbusters that had better walk-ups/were less pre-sales heavy.

 

Maybe will start separating EA and Thursday comps next update? Need some more expert voices to weigh in here, not sure what the most helpful way to approach this is since the EA is so broad

 

Tarot (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 21 theaters	55	6	12	5110	0.23

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		7	5	58.33
Alamo:		0	6	0
Other chains:		5	2	41.67

 

I'll add some comps at T-4 but still doing absolutely nothing

[emoviefan]

Sigh. It's like people went to the movies in March and said yeah we are good for the next few months.  At the same time it's a movie about tennis and those never break out or make much money. Yeah just going to make  the excuse for why another well reviewed movie may not break out.

[emoviefan]

8 minutes ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

The Fall Guy (T-7):

Day: T-7, T-6	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	74	37	189	13546	1.4
Wednesday May 1 EA: 19 theaters	23	52	217	5129	4.23
TOTALS:	97	89	406	18675	2.17

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		152	29	80.42
MTC1:		127	24	67.2
Alamo:		18	0	9.52
Other chains:		44	13	23.28

 

Comps (combined EA + THU):

Monkey Man: Missed

1.31x Civil War: $3.8 Million

0.53x Godzilla v. King: $5.29 Million (17 theaters)

0.87x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $4.1 Million (17 theaters)

0.72x Madame Web (OD): $4.37 Million (17 theaters)

1.12x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $5.04 Million (17 theaters)

0.56x TMNT (w/ EA): $3.06 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $4.28 Million

 

I for sure messed up my Aquaman comp last update, I'm not sure what I did exactly but that was just totally off. A variety of comps here but trying to go with the blockbusters that had better walk-ups/were less pre-sales heavy.

 

Maybe will start separating EA and Thursday comps next update? Need some more expert voices to weigh in here, not sure what the most helpful way to approach this is since the EA is so broad

 

Tarot (T-7):

Day: T-7	Shows	New Seats	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Totals: 21 theaters	55	6	12	5110	0.23

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		0	0	0
MTC1:		7	5	58.33
Alamo:		0	6	0
Other chains:		5	2

God the EA thing has become so annoying.

[abracadabra1998]

On 4/21/2024 at 10:47 PM, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-18):

Day: T-18, T-17	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	98	31	152	17196	0.88
Wednesday May 8 EA: 19 theaters	23	4	192	5146	3.73
TOTALS:	121	35	344	22342	1.54

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		132	22	86.84
MTC1:		85	14	55.92
Alamo:		16	0	10.53
Other chains:		51	17	33.55

 

Comps (THU + EA combined):

1.5x The Fall Guy: ???

1.29x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $6.07 Million (17 theaters)

1.55x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.97 Million (17 theaters)

0.35x Oppy: $3.72 Million (17 theaters)

MI7: Missed

 

Some bad comps here but just keeping these here for now and they should converge as the release windows even out a bit

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-13	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	98	17	169	17196	0.98
Wednesday May 8 EA: 19 theaters	23	36	228	5146	4.43
TOTALS:	121	53	397	22342	1.78

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		144	12	85.21
MTC1:		97	12	57.4
Alamo:		16	0	9.47
Other chains:		56	5	33.14

 

Comps (THU + EA combined):

1.4x The Fall Guy: ???

1.17x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $5.5 Million (17 theaters)

1.48x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.68 Million (17 theaters)

0.46x FNAF: $4.78 Million (17 theaters)

0.41x MI7: $3.69 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.16 Million

 

This has been doing pretty consistently well, good to see!

[kayumanggi]

 

[emoviefan]

1 minute ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

Minnesota Previews:

 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (T-14):

Day: T-14, T-13	Shows	New	Sold	Seats	% Sold
Thursday: 25 theaters	98	17	169	17196	0.98
Wednesday May 8 EA: 19 theaters	23	36	228	5146	4.43
TOTALS:	121	53	397	22342	1.78

 

Type of tix:		Total:	New:	Percentage:
PLFs:		144	12	85.21
MTC1:		97	12	57.4
Alamo:		16	0	9.47
Other chains:		56	5	33.14

 

Comps (THU + EA combined):

1.4x The Fall Guy: ???

1.17x Ghostbusters Frozen Empire: $5.5 Million (17 theaters)

1.48x Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom: $6.68 Million (17 theaters)

0.46x FNAF: $4.78 Million (17 theaters)

0.41x MI7: $3.69 Million (17 theaters)

 

Average: $5.16 Million

 

This has been doing pretty consistently well, good to see!

If the Fall Guy  can at least open decently and have a good second week hold and Apes breaks out that weekend  and then IF delivers on those tracking numbers  and the Memorial weekend movies do well May not not be too bad relative to expectations.