The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

[kayumanggi]

 

[kayumanggi]

 

[Firepower]

5 hours ago, emoviefan said:

I honestly do not know how Lionsgate is staying in business.

They usually recoup most of their movies with pre-sales to foreign distributors. So if something flops really hard, they don't lose much, if anything, foreign distributors who purchased it take the fall. But the downside of this is they don't earn nearly as much as they could've if they get a big hit. Plus as far as I'm aware those flops affect pre-sales price tags, distributors are not that stupid and don't want pay too much after purchasing flops from them.

[kayumanggi]

 

[lorddemaxus]

Probably not gonna mean much but can’t help but wonder if Jenna Ortega being in the music video for Sabrina Carpenters new song might boost sales for Beetlejuice this weekend. Feels like there’s some overlap between audiences here.

[TheFlatLannister]

On 8/12/2024 at 6:31 PM, TheFlatLannister said:

 FLORIDA 

BEETLEJUICE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-24

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
605	4574	126079	3.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

169

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

0

 

COMPS

T-24

(2.982x) of Apes $14.91M

(1.202x) of Dune 2 $11.18M

Comps AVG: $13.05M

 

Excellent numbers this far out

FLORIDA 

BEETLEJUICE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
620	5913	129443	4.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

191

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

COMPS

T-14

(3.139x) of Apes $15.69M

(2.104x) of Alien $13.68M

Comps AVG: $14.69M

 

Really strong numbers. Don't really see it missing $10M previews at this point. 

[Ryan C]

11 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

BEETLEJUICE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
620	5913	129443	4.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

191

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

COMPS

T-14

(3.139x) of Apes $15.69M

(2.104x) of Alien $13.68M

Comps AVG: $14.69M

 

Really strong numbers. Don't really see it missing $10M previews at this point. 

 

This doesn't include any EA screenings? 

[Relevation]

53 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

FLORIDA 

BEETLEJUICE 2

 

Thursday 

 

T-14

SHOWINGS	SEATS SOLD	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD
620	5913	129443	4.6%

^{*numbers taken as of 7:00PM EST}

SEATS SOLD SINCE YESTERDAY

191

 

SHOWINGS ADDED SINCE YESTERDAY

15

 

COMPS

T-14

(3.139x) of Apes $15.69M

(2.104x) of Alien $13.68M

Comps AVG: $14.69M

 

Really strong numbers. Don't really see it missing $10M previews at this point. 

Tbh I might predict $140-150M for Beetlejuice at this point, pretty incredible sales that shouldn’t be frontloaded 

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Tbh I might predict $140-150M for Beetlejuice at this point, pretty incredible sales that shouldn’t be frontloaded 

 

I feel like that's way too optimistic, but it would be absolutely jaw-dropping (and amazing) if Beetlejuice Beetlejuice could come close to the opening weekend of Inside Out 2. 

 

All I'll say is if that happens, it'll continue to make the idea that 2024 could catch up to 2023's $9B domestic gross look a lot more probable than it did after Memorial Day weekend. 

[Relevation]

2 minutes ago, Ryan C said:

 

I feel like that's way too optimistic, but it would be absolutely jaw-dropping (and amazing) if Beetlejuice Beetlejuice could come close to the opening weekend of Inside Out 2. 

 

All I'll say is if that happens, it'll continue to make the idea that 2024 could catch up to 2023's $9B domestic gross look a lot more probable than it did after Memorial Day weekend. 

Is it? Flip, TheFlatLannister, and Jat’s numbers all suggest like $14M+ THU alone and if it puts down $2.5M EA, then that’s like $16.5M combined previews! In September! Shang-Chi had an 8.6x IM so if this does the same, then that’s $142M for the weekend. And I don’t see any reason why this would be frontheavy since it’s a nostalgia based family horror comedy, and pace has been phenomenal the last few weeks. Very strongly getting IO2/Barbie vibes here, this is a freight train that is only gonna keep getting higher and higher until it like doubles industry projections when it finally hits. 

[Ryan C]

15 minutes ago, Relevation said:

Is it? Flip, TheFlatLannister, and Jat’s numbers all suggest like $14M+ THU alone and if it puts down $2.5M EA, then that’s like $16.5M combined previews! In September! Shang-Chi had an 8.6x IM so if this does the same, then that’s $142M for the weekend. And I don’t see any reason why this would be frontheavy since it’s a nostalgia based family horror comedy, and pace has been phenomenal the last few weeks. Very strongly getting IO2/Barbie vibes here, this is a freight train that is only gonna keep getting higher and higher until it like doubles industry projections when it finally hits. 

 

For me, the question I'm genuinely asking is just how strong is the nostalgia for Beetlejuice? 

 

I know the original film is very popular and has gained a cult following ever since its 1988 release, but I just have trouble believing it's this popular to warrant numbers on par with Inside Out 2 or Barbie. 

 

If the original Beetlejuice were as successful as something like Jurassic Park or even the original Ghostbusters, then I probably wouldn't be as shocked if this movie (at a time when legacy sequels are still mostly box office gold) would open to these numbers. 

 

I don't know, but I just don't want to go crazy with the projections for this movie. The chances of it hitting $100M+ are very likely, but I'll wait until we get closer to the release date to see if pre-sales keep up at the pace it's currently at right now. 

 

Though both aren't the same movie, we saw how strong Alien: Romulus started in pre-sales and eventually went down to end up opening at $42M. Still a good opening, but not at the $50M-$60M+ levels we were seeing weeks ago. 

 

I just want to be cautious for now. That way, I would be a lot more genuinely surprised and shocked if this movie does open to those insanely high numbers. 

Edited August 23 by Ryan C

[Human]

One of my bosses keeps asking me when Beetlejuice 2 comes out.  I should probably tell him to preorder.

[DAJK]

Rewatched the original Beetlejuice today for the first time since the mid-2000s. Pretty good movie, a lot more vulgar than I remember as a kid lol. Nostalgia should be strong, especially if this new one is any good. Not sure I’m willing to predict something crazy like 140+ though lol. I’ll stick with 90-100.

 

Blink Twice and Crow aren’t doing terribly here tonight. Both around the equivalent of 1M previews. But honestly the numbers are so small it’s hard to extrapolate. 

[Arlborn]

1 hour ago, Relevation said:

Tbh I might predict $140-150M for Beetlejuice at this point, pretty incredible sales that shouldn’t be frontloaded 

This would be great for it! I kinda feel like this one simply isn’t going to do all that much OS (I might be wrong),so any over performance domestically is welcome.

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, Arlborn said:

This would be great for it! I kinda feel like this one simply isn’t going to do all that much OS (I might be wrong),so any over performance domestically is welcome.

Might be the biggest OW of 2024 that isn't called Deadpool & Wolverine

[Ryan C]

2 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

This would be great for it! I kinda feel like this one simply isn’t going to do all that much OS (I might be wrong),so any over performance domestically is welcome.

 

It all depends on how much Warner Bros. spent on the movie. 

 

Though unlike Twisters, I'm sure Warner has a much bigger stake in this movie's budget (including marketing), so if it doesn't do particularly well overseas, then it's gonna need as much money as possible from North America to pick up the slack. 

 

I just hope that the budget isn't $200M or anything insane like that. 

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

Blink Twice (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

3 Thursday showings: 11/201 (5.5% sold) [+4]

 

Comps:

Watchers: $524k

Bikeriders: $532k

Trap: $526k

Avg: $527k

 

5 Friday showings: 16/335 (4.8% sold) [+6]

 

Thurs + Fri: 27/536 (2.8% sold) [+10]

 

Comps:

Watchers: $2.12M

Bikeriders: $1.56M

Trap: $1.44M

Cuckoo: $1.46M

Avg: $1.65M

 

 

Ticket totals would definitely be ten times the current amount if they'd gone with the original title.

Blink Twice (Thursday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

5 Friday showings: 28/335 (8.4% sold) [+12]

 

Comps:

Watchers: $1.67M

Bikeriders: $908k

Trap: $1.1M

Avg: $1.23M

 

 

Should be the "winner" of the openers this weekend.

[Rorschach]

23 hours ago, Rorschach said:

The Crow (Wednesday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Thursday: 12/846 (1.4% sold) [no change]

1 IMAX showing: 0/388

4 2D showings: 12/458

 

Comps:

Strangers: $455k

Borderlands: $466k

Avg: $482k

 

Friday: 13/1,184 (1.1% sold) [no change]

1 IMAX showing: 0/388

8 2D showings: 13/796 

 

Thurs + Fri: 25/2,030 (1.2% sold) [no change]

 

Comps:

Strangers: $1.59M

Borderlands: $975k

Avg: $1.28M

 

 

The Crow (Thursday Night Outlook)

Cinemark Davenport 18 + IMAX

Friday: 26/1,128 (2.3% sold) [+13]

1 IMAX showing: 0/388

7 2D showings: 26/796 

 

Comps:

Strangers: $1.27M

Borderlands: $709k

Avg: $990k

 

 

Glad to be taking a break from tracking next week, this week was already tedious enough.

[emoviefan]

30 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Might be the biggest OW of 2024 that isn't called Deadpool & Wolverine

I do not think it's out opening IO 2. 

[HummingLemon496]

Just now, emoviefan said:

I do not think it's out opening IO 2. 

Relevation's 150M high end of 150M is only 2.5% below IO2 OW