Weekend Thread 7/28-7/30 - Barbenheimer Week 2; Barbie 93M/Oppy 46.2M - Haunted Mansion & Talk to Me OW; Mansion 24.2M, Talk 10M

[TomThomas]

18 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

MI:DR-P1 is actually in danger of becoming known as a bad movie because of the bad box office. This happens from time to time when the box office decline can't be blamed on anything in particular, so the narrative moves to "it must have done bad because it was bad". Clearly there's word of mouth issues to some extent because it wasn't doing great at the box office even pre-Barbenheimer as it consistently came in below expectations.

I don't think WOM is the issue. Outside of Barbenheimer, title and marketing which are big factors, it can be blamed on what's actually happening this year in box office when so many big movies, including supposedly guaranteed hits, flop very hard and some dark horses unexpectedly become giant hits, Disney is probably having the worst year they've ever had. It's just an anomaly, it can't be explained any other way than massive shift in audience's mentality. The same with China box office which dropped significantly for all Hollywood productions in general and it affected overall numbers too.

Edited July 29, 2023 by TomThomas

[Noctis]

11 hours ago, baumer said:

 

Im honestly curious what the problem is with this post. I don't understand what you're upset about.

 

More importantly why do you have to come across so harshly? You were never like this as a poster. Why can't you be a bit nicer?

 

Eric is often like this. Gets a power trip and acts like an ass and enjoys not letting others talk, but because he's a mod, he gets a pass.

 

 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

M:I7 when Barbenheimer arrived

[baumer]

5 minutes ago, Noctis said:

 

Eric is often like this. Gets a power trip and acts like an ass and enjoys not letting others talk, but because he's a mod, he gets a pass.

 

 

 

And it's been addressed publicly and privately and nothing's been done about it. Like I honestly don't understand what Eric hopes to accomplish by doing this. He just flat out comes across as a dictator and an asshole. Could you imagine if someone tried talking like this to you in real life? Like if this was on the playground he'd never be like this for sure. There's no way he would talk like this to you face to face. 

[TwoMisfits]

5 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

What I meant was that Aquaman 2 will win by default because of everything else around it being pushed off to next year because of these strikes. And since Aquaman 2 represents a dead franchise Warner wants to get rid of as soon as possible, I find it unlikely it moves, because that would mean they actually have some faith in it.

 

That was also why I thought it would stick...

 

Five Nights stays and becomes a true release (b/c, being day and date, Universal seems like it didn't have faith in it)...and October will be way more open sans Kraven.

 

Marvels stays b/c they will have a more open field, and they may need that since they moved originally to get one.

 

Journey to Bethlehem stays b/c it also wants the 6 week holiday corridor and Sony did NOT move it when they moved everything else yesterday, so they are planning to back that movie for the holidays.

 

Aquaman 2 stays b/c it needs to open and be gotten rid of...and by staying in a likely opening Xmas corrdior, it will do as much as it ever could.

[TwoMisfits]

PS - Might need to reconsider how much longer legs for the late July/August openers can get if things start kicking out and there are fewer openers in Aug/Sept/Oct - fewer openers mean fewer movies to open and less pressure on screens/showings...so you could have a movie like Barbie still playing on Halloween, ala Puss in Boots 2's theatrical staying power...

 

And the longer you're in theaters, with the large subscriber bases that the big 3 have, the more you'll make by default, unless people absolutely despise your movie...

[Krissykins]

13 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

That was also why I thought it would stick...

 

Five Nights stays and becomes a true release (b/c, being day and date, Universal seems like it didn't have faith in it)...and October will be way more open sans Kraven.

 

Marvels stays b/c they will have a more open field, and they may need that since they moved originally to get one.

 

Journey to Bethlehem stays b/c it also wants the 6 week holiday corridor and Sony did NOT move it when they moved everything else yesterday, so they are planning to back that movie for the holidays.

 

Aquaman 2 stays b/c it needs to open and be gotten rid of...and by staying in a likely opening Xmas corrdior, it will do as much as it ever could.

What’s this? Never heard of it and it’s not on BOM’s schedule. 

[Sophia Jane]

The Meg 2 will likely even corss $300m before COVID time,but now,with extremely low interest to Hollywood movie,I don’t really know.Hollywood box office in China is really hard to predict now,even a film franchise like Mission:Impossible which is popular in China for over 20 years got horrible failed,and MI7 is not so bad movie,so yeah,I think The Meg 2 could do $50-350m range.

Edited July 29, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

 

MI:DR-P1 is actually in danger of becoming known as a bad movie because of the bad box office. This happens from time to time when the box office decline can't be blamed on anything in particular, so the narrative moves to "it must have done bad because it was bad". Clearly there's word of mouth issues to some extent because it wasn't doing great at the box office even pre-Barbenheimer as it consistently came in below expectations.

 

If it wasn’t doing well right from the opening it shows that WOM actually wasn’t the factor. More likely that SoF, people saving for Barbenheimer, the Part One and commercials that made it look too similar to the previous ones were the main culprits 

 

 

and  I have seen loads on Reddit saying “akshually MI DR clearly sucks and the MI franchise is overrated and repetitive”. DR2 needs to do better not just for profit reasons but to leave the reputation of the series on a good note 

Edited July 29, 2023 by John Marston

[KC7]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

What’s this? Never heard of it and it’s not on BOM’s schedule. 

 

It's a Christian Christmas musical. Has a few recognizable faces in it; Antonio Banderas is the big name.

 

 

eta: Found the thread for it, but the title's misspelled (eta: it's corrected now):

 

Edited July 29, 2023 by KC7

[Arlborn]

This weekend thread is so gloomy compared to last week’s. I guess no great major releases will do that, but Barbenheimer is still going strong, I thought it would make this thread more hyped than usual for a a weekend with no big openers, but instead we seem to be getting the BVS of threads.

 

Although the BVS weekend thread was perversely amazing, and I say that as one of the dozens of people in the world who liked that movie…

 

But anyway, I digress. This thread needs bigger numbers I guess to keep it on track, so give me 150M Barberheimer please and thank you 

[ZattMurdock]

It’s delay season. It moved from March 8th, 2024 to March 29. I wonder what would go for the March 8th date? It’s International Women’s Day, and Captain Marvel did a tremendous job promoting that film as an event that women could watch it together. Yeah it had a 55% male demo, but from an OW that with inflation was north to $200m. Arguably a bigger female demo than Barbie’s OW even if it skewed male overall.

 

I still insist that should’ve been The Marvels release date all along. Don’t see any other release close that could take advantage of that.

[CoolioD1]

Haunted Mansion flopping and simultaneously the news that Justin Simien got booted off the Lando show. Star Wars curse claims another victim.

[Nero]

10 hours ago, RobrtmanAStarWarsReference said:

March 2020 was pretty good for games, also had Final Fantasy VII Remake, Persona 5 Royal, Resident Evil 3 Remake and Half-Life Alyx

Resident evil 3 remake was disappointing. They cut lot of stuff imo. Game felt so short. RE4REMAKE on other hand . Masterpiece 👏👏👏

[toutvabien]

8 minutes ago, ZattMurdock said:

It’s delay season. It moved from March 8th, 2024 to March 29. I wonder what would go for the March 8th date? It’s International Women’s Day, and Captain Marvel did a tremendous job promoting that film as an event that women could watch it together. Yeah it had a 55% male demo, but from an OW that with inflation was north to $200m. Arguably a bigger female demo than Barbie’s OW even if it skewed male overall.

 

I still insist that should’ve been The Marvels release date all along. Don’t see any other release close that could take advantage of that.

There's literally a Pixar film opening a week before that.

[WorkingonaName]

6 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Haunted Mansion flopping and simultaneously the news that Justin Simien got booted off the Lando show. Star Wars curse claims another victim.

Star Wars curse is the most reliable prediction tool in history, it never fails. 

[ZattMurdock]

3 minutes ago, toutvabien said:

There's literally a Pixar film opening a week before that.

I’m aware. I’m just pointing out that the International Women’s Day strategy worked pretty well in the past. It’s the kind of date that isn’t really a holiday but gets a lot of repercussion worldwide. 

[grim22]

13 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Haunted Mansion flopping and simultaneously the news that Justin Simien got booted off the Lando show. Star Wars curse claims another victim.

 

I hadn't heard this news, so looked it up and landed on this tweet

 

 

and these follow-up tweets

 

 

 

Which led me to this article: https://www.slashfilm.com/575104/the-making-of-star-wars-the-force-awakens-book/

 

A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, there was going to be a coffee table book called The Making of Star Wars: The Force Awakens. And then the book was canceled.

 

 

In Rinzler's opinion, the book was canceled due to "control issues." Namely: when the details of the production were laid out in book form it made it look as if the making of The Force Awakens was riddled with problems. But as Rinzler adds, the majority of huge Hollywood movies encounter problems during production. However, it seems that the powers-that-be behind the book preferred not to draw attention to those problems. Again: this is Rinzler's opinion. He even says this is a guess on his part, but it certainly makes sense.

 

Unfortunately Rinzler passed away of pancreatic cancer a year later, so we will never see that book ever now.

[M37]

Projecting the weekend totals:

 

BARBIE - looks to be following a more typical - ie flatter - daily pattern often seen for female skewing films. Expecting Saturday to +21-27%, Sun -23-15%, for a 3.15-3.35x Friday. Current $29M early estimate would be ~$91-$97M

 

OPPY - little less sure what to expect here, could be seeing the running time holding back M-F numbers, so thinking (hoping) we could a bigger Saturday jump, though not much usually gets above +45% in summer. Sat +30-45%, Sun -15-24%, for a 3.28-3.68x Friday, using Deadline's $13.5M would be $44.5M-$49.5M, so most likely upper 40s; needs more around $14M to keep $50M in play

 

Decent chance both films end up with near identical second weekend drops, in -41-42% range

[filmlover]

At this point I think it's plausible Barbie holds onto #1 until Equalizer 3 on Labor Day weekend unless Gran Turismo manages to overperform on its new date.