Weekend Thread | TAYLOR SWIFT $31M Estimate, KOTFM $23M

[vale9001]

5 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

The older set never really turned up for Scorsese films en masse. 10 years back, there were a lot of reports of older men dramatically walking out of Wolf of Wall Street screenings.

 

 

but 50-60-70 years old now should be people grew up with Scorsese movie as young people. 

[emoviefan]

9 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

If those numbers for KotFM hold and it has solid legs then I’d take that as a somewhat reassuring sign for the future of adult cinema. 

Paramount balked at funding this for a reason. After seeing this I can see why. This is not a  commercial movie. Apple has the money. They did it for the prestige and Apple TV.   Napleon will be interesting. It has the large scale battle sequences but I have read Ridley saying the movie focuses more on the Twisted relationship with Josephine. Really pulling for Argyle to be the big commercial play for Apple. A fun spy action comedy with a stacked cast. If Vaughn delivers that could next years first big hit.

[emoviefan]

14 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

 

but 50-60-70 years old now should be people grew up with Scorsese movie as young people. 

Yep I am one of the older people on this forum  I think and it really bothers me that people my age and older have just fled the movie going experience for the most part.  Even I don't go to movies as much as I used too. . But still go a lot more than most people my age or even much younger probably. 

[WittyUsername]

7 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Paramount balked at funding this for a reason. After seeing this I can see why. This is not a  commercial movie. Apple has the money. They did it for the prestige and Apple TV.   Napleon will be interesting. It has the large scale battle sequences but I have read Ridley saying the movie focuses more on the Twisted relationship with Josephine. Really pulling for Argyle to be the big commercial play for Apple. A fun spy action comedy with a stacked cast. If Vaughn delivers that could next years first big hit.

That’s my point. KotFM is not the kind of movie that would appeal to a mainstream audience, so taking that into account, these numbers don’t seem too bad. Compare this to how The Last Duel did two years ago, and the difference is pretty significant. 

[Johnny Tran]

$23M for KOTFM is NOT a soft opening and here's why:  It was never marketed as a wide release or an IMAX event.  I've talked to several people who have said "Looking forward to seeing this on Apple+" and that is how it was supposed to be released.  After hearing the runtime of nearly 3.5 hours,  people would much rather watch it at home and thought they were going to be able to do so this week before plans changed.  

[MysteryMovieMogul]

7 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

$23M for KOTFM is NOT a soft opening and here's why:  It was never marketed as a wide release or an IMAX event.  I've talked to several people who have said "Looking forward to seeing this on Apple+" and that is how it was supposed to be released.  After hearing the runtime of nearly 3.5 hours,  people would much rather watch it at home and thought they were going to be able to do so this week before plans changed.  

I'm skeptical the film is going to be a big hit for Apple+. It's not a crowd pleaser, and although it's a great film, it's depressing. You don't end the film feeling good about the world.

[Jonwo]

21 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

That’s my point. KotFM is not the kind of movie that would appeal to a mainstream audience, so taking that into account, these numbers don’t seem too bad. Compare this to how The Last Duel did two years ago, and the difference is pretty significant. 

TBH The Last Duel would have flopped even if Leo had been it instead of Matt Damon. 

 

 

[mikeymichael]

Cautiously optimistic that good WOM for KOTFM will lead to above average legs, but I don't see it happening. Would love a 3x multi to get the final gross over 70m with possibly a small bump come awards season. 

[titanic2187]

46 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I haven't seen any marketing for this tbh. Which usually tends to be an issue with marketing campaigns that are pretty much exclusive to social media.

I can only hope studio can be more sincere about platform release. 
 

49 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It's coming out at a bad time, and the NYFF screenings were all sell outs that took away 75k or so from the film's box office. I still need to see it but the current showtimes + runtime don't make it a convenient watch.

I strongly urge studio to start adding BO from festival circuit to their BO. Technically those figure are part of the box office since people paid to see it in a brick-mortal dark hall. 

 

1 hour ago, abracadabra1998 said:

 

These kinds of movies are tricky now; they need the good old Oscar bump (Triangle of Sadness would have surely gotten one, since it earned a Best Pic nom), but since the Oscars are now in March and everything is more dragged out, that's not really a thing anymore sadly. See: Women Talking last year. 

 

In short I think the Oscars need to go back to their February slot, noms announced in the beginning of January so that smaller movies can ride those noms and see some more meaningful bumps.

Not only that oscar is getting too late in the calendar, Studio has shortened their window substantially for platform release. Most of the best picture has already in their tail-end of their theatrical run by the time oscar announced their nomination list in mid-January. Suffice to say the Oscar-type of BO run like 1917, green book, parasite are gone forever. 

[Eric Prime]

 

[Mojoguy]

38 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I can only hope studio can be more sincere about platform release. 
 

I strongly urge studio to start adding BO from festival circuit to their BO. Technically those figure are part of the box office since people paid to see it in a brick-mortal dark hall. 

 

Not only that oscar is getting too late in the calendar, Studio has shortened their window substantially for platform release. Most of the best picture has already in their tail-end of their theatrical run by the time oscar announced their nomination list in mid-January. Suffice to say the Oscar-type of BO run like 1917, green book, parasite are gone forever. 

They should start releasing the Oscar bait films in Dec.

[Valencia]

Just now, Mojoguy said:

They should start releasing the Oscar bait films in Dec.

They do?

 

Bikeriders, May December, Origin, Poor Things, Zone of Interest, Maestro, American Fiction, All of Us strangers, Ferrari, and the Color Purple are the Oscar bait group.

 

 

[PrinceRico]

9 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

They should start releasing the Oscar bait films in Dec.

 Poor Things, The Zone of Interest, origin Maestro, American Fiction and the Color Purple all come out in December.

 

[reddevil19]

Meh. I was very hopeful for a 30+ weekend for KOTFM a while back. And I guess the low 20 isn't necessarily bad by itself, but obviously the budget is immense and even worse, the weekend multiplier isn't really pointing towards good legs.

Its runtime and subject matter will mean it completely collapses on the weekdays. Oppie at least had summer weekdays to help. So there's hope for a good Fri and very good sat bump next weekend, but I'm not holding my breath for insane legs on this. I'm thinking 65 million total as of now.

[21C]

Killers of the Flower Moon is a theatrical flop. Maybe it's strategic on Apple's part as a loss leader to get a reputation amongst creatives in the film industry, but "loss leader" still means "loss".

[Borobudur]

Creator, Venice, Saw X and Paw all heading to 3x leg. At least some consolation prize after meh OW.

[Jonwo]

29 minutes ago, 21C said:

Killers of the Flower Moon is a theatrical flop. Maybe it's strategic on Apple's part as a loss leader to get a reputation amongst creatives in the film industry, but "loss leader" still means "loss".

Paramount is probably glad they're only distributing, Apple don't really care, the money lost will be made up in iPhone sales alone.

[emoviefan]

So ERA's is only the second 100 million dollar grossing movie since Barbenheimer. TMNT is the other one. That makes it the 19th movie of the year. That is the most  since 2019. 2020 only had two before the world went to shit. 2021 had 14 and 22 got up to 18.  The rest of the year not looking great for any massive potential  200+ breakout except for Wonka but plenty of potential 100 million if not much more than that for some of them. 

[wildphantom]

6 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Don't think Scorsese planned for an intermission, but here in Italy we have them for every film so I'm used to somewhat abrupt 5min breaks.

it was massively abrupt. When it came back we saw the previous minute before it stopped. 
 

Largely loved the movie.  DiCaprio is amazing in it. Bag of nerves. Scary how good he is. 

Edited October 22, 2023 by wildphantom

[Curiouser and Curiouser]

17 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

Paramount is probably glad they're only distributing, Apple don't really care, the money lost will be made up in iPhone sales alone.

Paramount's losses are being covered by Apple. I don't know how much evidence people need to get the picture lol. This wasn't made with a theatrical business model in mind.