NEW YEAR weekend

[AniNate]

I've heard variations on "two years from now will be epic" too much to want to put much stock in 2025. It's close enough that projects can still be promoted to shareholders but far enough away that any delays won't impact investor confidence much. And there's also of course the possibility of another force majeure like a pandemic or strike screwing everything up.

 

So for now I just want to focus on 2024. There are a lot of projects close to finished that are maybe not as bankable as the cape movies but far more interesting for me to follow. 

 

 

Edited January 2 by AniNate

[JonathanMB]

 

5 hours ago, vale9001 said:

 

I really doubt someone last year thought Wonka + Barbie + Oppenheimer were coming for 3B globally combined. So I stay in my opinion box office is more interesting now.

 

Challengers by Luca Guadagnino Is another movie box office run could be very interesting to follow.

 

 

 

I don't expect Challengers to be like, a massive hit, but Anyone But You is showing that there's definitely some pent up demand for romances on the big screen (I think that's partly another reason the new Hunger Games has legged out), so having another Euphoria star in another sexy R-rated romance could prove to at least be profitable for MGM/Amazon. Kind of annoying that it's opening the same weekend as Civil War (another original midbudget film angling for a breakout), but ah well. 

[Grand Cine]

 

New Year Day :

 

1) : Wonka 6,7M (+27 % YD)

2) : Aquaman 2 : 5,25M (+30% YD)

3) : Migration : 5M (+29% YD)

4) : Anyone But You 2,85M (+62% YD !!! )

5) : TCP : 2,6M (+8%) 😬

 

For The Top 3 it's a same jump as 6 years ago but the TCP number is really bad , i hope a better hold today . The Boys and the boat ( and Ferrari and Iron Claw i think also ) have also small jump BUT this last three movies had a much better hold in New Year Eve so it's normal to have small jump.

 

To finish , what a great number for Anyone But You , it's a much better jump than Pitch Perfect 3 (+36%) and is already above

TCP !!! so i think , if the hold is good today, he will have a great hold next weekend

[lorddemaxus]

12 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:

having another Euphoria star in another sexy R-rated romance could prove to at least be profitable for MGM/Amazon. 

It's funny you said this. There's another R-rated romance starring a Euphoria star that MGM released that ended up being a hit for them on streaming

[TwoMisfits]

3 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

My boomer take is that I feel like society today is so closed off; post-pandemic (and partly, but not wholly, because of it) I just feel like so many people have just turned away from social gatherings and activities, movie-going amongst them, and it just sucks 😕 people’s views of each other have just become so negative 

 

That's so true.  I always suggest people take time every day away from their phones/computers (leave them home) and just take a walk.  You'll see people and nature that will reset what you think of the world, and just give your brain a daily breather/reset.  Not to mention the health benefits from a daily 30-60 minute walk...

[M37]

10 hours ago, rehpyc said:

The theatrical year still has through this Thursday to go, but just to put some things in perspective of this year's recovery compared to last year. Barbenheimer really helped give a morphine shot mid-year, just treading water and slowly heading back down since.

 

This is the way I've been tracking it, by the rolling weekly average of gross. Despite the weekly fluctuations - both in gross and the BOT attitudes towards them - the average doesn't fluctuate much

 

 

Level in the $11B+ range pre-pandemic (~$220M weekly average), dropping to nearly nothing, then starting to recover. For the 52 weeks ending in July 2022, the average climbed to just shy of $150M ($8B annually) and then held in that range for a whole year, until Barbenheimer pushed it higher, near $9B. Then a solid Fall kept it there (ERAS, FNAF, etc), before the Thanksgiving and X-Mas holiday weakness has now started to drag the average back down

 

I expect that average to continue to decline through at least April, as early 2024 lacks even the mild punch of 2023, and certainly no (apparent) Mario looming.  By end of summer wouldn't be surprised to the rolling average fall below the ~$150M/$8.0B range, but with a potentially strong Fall and Winter slate able to push it back over

 

But all-in-all, that ~$8-$9B or so range appears to be the new normal, though I'm going to wait until we have a full, non-COVID or -Strike delayed release schedule (ie 2025) to call it officially

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, JonathanMB said:

 

 

I don't expect Challengers to be like, a massive hit, but Anyone But You is showing that there's definitely some pent up demand for romances on the big screen (I think that's partly another reason the new Hunger Games has legged out), so having another Euphoria star in another sexy R-rated romance could prove to at least be profitable for MGM/Amazon. Kind of annoying that it's opening the same weekend as Civil War (another original midbudget film angling for a breakout), but ah well. 

 

seems like there is a new audience of young people now like to watch again cool adult drama. With a proper promotion and WW release is clear from limited numbers from USA, UK, Australia even Saltburn got a potential for a 50-70M ww final. 

Of course there are several variants and i don't want to say it has to make it but the double of that for Challengers for me is a fair prediction and not something out of the world. 

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

It's funny you said this. There's another R-rated romance starring a Euphoria star that MGM released that ended up being a hit for them on streaming

 

I think that that romance being a streaming blockbuster also has something to do with Barry's bacon. But yes, Jacob definitely brought in Euphoria crowd that then discovered the said bacon and the rest is history. 

 

I hope that Wo Die Luege Hinfaellt's jump holds. 

[Kon]

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

 

New Year Day :

 

1) : Wonka 6,7M (+27 % YD)

2) : Aquaman 2 : 5,25M (+30% YD)

3) : Migration : 5M (+29% YD)

4) : Anyone But You 2,85M (+62% YD !!! )

5) : TCP : 2,6M (+8%) 😬

 

For The Top 3 it's a same jump as 6 years ago but the TCP number is really bad , i hope a better hold today . The Boys and the boat ( and Ferrari and Iron Claw i think also ) have also small jump BUT this last three movies had a much better hold in New Year Eve so it's normal to have small jump.

 

To finish , what a great number for Anyone But You , it's a much better jump than Pitch Perfect 3 (+36%) and is already above

TCP !!! so i think , if the hold is good today, he will have a great hold next weekend

 

I don't think many people expected The Color Purple being under Anyone But You in New Year Day. The pre-sales tracking really mislead us.

 

The legs for The Color Purple seem to be pretty poor.

Edited January 2 by Kon

[filmlover]

I mentioned it last weekend but it's probably reasonable to speculate that the stars of Euphoria might have some pull after all, not just Zendaya. Yeah, the show has just as many vocal detractors as it does fans, but both of Jacob Elordi's dramas did better than most movies of those sorts have since the pandemic (even if Priscilla did have the Elvis connection - albeit a not especially flattering one - to give it a profile boost and Saltburn doing $10M+ total is not bad for such a strange erotic thriller). Creator Sam Levinson's failure to follow up on the success of that show (Malcolm & Marie quickly vanished into the streaming ether with no one caring, and the less said about The Idol, the better) doesn't seem to be extending to the cast, at least.

[Valonqar]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I mentioned it last weekend but it's probably reasonable to speculate that the stars of Euphoria might have some pull after all, not just Zendaya. Yeah, the show has just as many vocal detractors as it does fans, but both of Jacob Elordi's dramas did better than most movies of those sorts have since the pandemic (even if Priscilla did have the Elvis connection - albeit a not especially flattering one - to give it a profile boost and Saltburn doing $10M+ total is not bad for such a strange erotic thriller). Creator Sam Levinson's failure to follow up on the success of that show (Malcolm & Marie quickly vanished into the streaming ether with no one caring, and the less said about The Idol, the better) doesn't seem to be extending to the cast, at least.

 

Agreed. they have pull with that audience so they are at least added value if not outright draws. 

[emoviefan]

Yep fun to get up and read this thread. The normal mix of will be fun to follow the box office in 24 and there's room for surprises and it will be  fine posters and the everything is doomed and I see everything bombing or disappointing except one or two movies because people hate each other posters.

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, Grand Cine said:

 

New Year Day :

 

5) : TCP : 2,6M (+8%) 😬

 

 

 

To finish , what a great number for Anyone But You , it's a much better jump than Pitch Perfect 3 (+36%) and is already above

TCP !!! so i think , if the hold is good today, he will have a great hold next weekend

 

yeah its missing 80 million 

in fact if it were to follow less miserable (so no mlk boost) even 70 wouldn't be safe 

 

[John Marston]

Never heard of Euphoria until recently. Don’t think it is some sort of phenomenon. Only heard of Sydney Sweeney due to the tabloids 

[Kon]

23 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I mentioned it last weekend but it's probably reasonable to speculate that the stars of Euphoria might have some pull after all, not just Zendaya. Yeah, the show has just as many vocal detractors as it does fans, but both of Jacob Elordi's dramas did better than most movies of those sorts have since the pandemic (even if Priscilla did have the Elvis connection - albeit a not especially flattering one - to give it a profile boost and Saltburn doing $10M+ total is not bad for such a strange erotic thriller). Creator Sam Levinson's failure to follow up on the success of that show (Malcolm & Marie quickly vanished into the streaming ether with no one caring, and the less said about The Idol, the better) doesn't seem to be extending to the cast, at least.

 

I think actors like Sydney Sweeney or Jacob Elordi have some pull, but I don't think it's so related to Euphoria.

 

I mean, Anyone But You is a big surprise due to the legs, while fandoms tend to go on the first weekend.

[TwoMisfits]

Of the previews I've seen, my top 2 movies for 2024 are Garfield and Kraven (I watched it yesterday, and damn, it's good - how does Sony make this trailer and Madame Web's trailer?).  So, I'm excited for the year b/c so many fresher concepts are hitting the screen.  I'm not sure I'll see a movie in Jan/Feb (except Aquaman today), but I'm not sure I won't...

 

PS = These are not my kid choices, so no "box office whispering" here...just things I think look good from marketing...

[grim22]

Just saw this on the box office subreddit, add it to the stats about The Marvels floating around the web

 

- The Marvels dropped more globally in percentage terms from Captain Marvel (82% drop) than Wonder Woman 1984 did from Wonder Woman (78% drop)

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Just saw this on the box office subreddit, add it to the stats about The Marvels floating around the web

 

- The Marvels dropped more globally in percentage terms from Captain Marvel (82% drop) than Wonder Woman 1984 did from Wonder Woman (78% drop)

 

never seen a more embarrassing performance. How have heads not rolled for this? I mean someone got fired for John Carter 

Edited January 2 by John Marston

[keysersoze123]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

never seen a more embarrassing performance. How have heads not rolled for this? I mean someone got fired for John Carter 

I am sure Nia De Costa is "fired" at this point. Who else do you think can Disney fire. Feige? 

[MightyDargon]

What's done is done for Marvels. The macro problem was dumping so many resources into the Kang arc. If they had kept Majors/Kang they would see even worse results.