Dune 2 Opening Weekend Thread [3/01/24 -3/03/24] [82.5m DOM OW]

[M37]

47 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

I woudnt be surprised if the legs of this movie will be better than we anticipate. Not just because of the light (if any) competition, but also because i think WOM will be stellar and this could get the "You have to see this in cinemas" treatment that could bring in a lot of people who were uninterested in this before.

I think the WOM effect will be limited in getting people off the fence, but it will get a “you have to see it in IMAX/PLF” push for which there is limited capacity and naturally rolls demand forward (including higher weekdays)

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

Okay, so I'll be the downer.

 

If a great campaign with amazing stars with a greatly received movie can't break 3 digits OW, then we're in for a long year...and I hope a lot of studios have lined up $5 tickets, b/c that seems to be the only way (barring something uber-uber-huge) to bring in large swaths of GA folks who are just as happy to watch anything on the couch and get them talking and get WOM to bring in more GA.

 

So, we won't have any $100M OW (without days of previews - I won't discount someone playing that game) til Memorial Day (or maybe even longer) without a discount ticket deal bump...if even then...

 

I mean, I shouldn't be surprised, though - but I was hopeful.  But then I didn't buy tickets...and since Aquaman, my kids haven't wanted any tickets this year, and haven't been bugging me about it, so it's fallen out of their interest and their friends' groups' interest.

 

Maybe I'll still buy tickets...and we'll get legs to $300M in the wasteland.  Sigh.

 

Okay, changing back to hope - c'mon 10x+ weekend multiplier...  

[excel1]

LOL at the doom gloom.

 

WB need to green light and fast track the Barbie 2 x Legally Blonde crossover set during Christmas that would pull off NWH sized numbers. 

[Spidey Freak]

18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Okay, so I'll be the downer.

 

If a great campaign with amazing stars with a greatly received movie can't break 3 digits OW, then we're in for a long year...

 

Why would a DUNE film open to 3 digits though? It's actually a testament to the BO pull of the stars in the film that it's opening as high as it is. Refreshing after so much was made about the death of star power. The exact same cast would have opened a Spider-Man film to 150M+ easily if not more.

[Starphanluke]

I saw this as an absolutely massive Dune mega fan (I’ve read the book 18 times): it’s Dune. I stick by my belief that anything over $60m is a great result for it. Dune is just not easily accessible in the way we think of most franchises.

 

I feel like people are also forgetting this is very much a “Part II.” You have to see Part I first. That limits your audience, moreso than a normal sequel where an audience can comfortably jump in. 

[Eric the Fall Guy]

9 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Why would a DUNE film open to 3 digits though? It's actually a testament to the BO pull of the stars in the film that it's opening as high as it is. Refreshing after so much was made about the death of star power. The exact same cast would have opened a Spider-Man film to 150M+ easily if not more.

What I would give to have Timothee as Spider-Man and I could just imagine myself in his arms, swinging me through the city as his Mary Jane. 😭

[TalismanRing]

23 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Okay, so I'll be the downer.

 

If a great campaign with amazing stars with a greatly received movie can't break 3 digits OW, then we're in for a long year...and I hope a lot of studios have lined up $5 tickets, b/c that seems to be the only way (barring something uber-uber-huge) to bring in large swaths of GA folks who are just as happy to watch anything on the couch and get them talking and get WOM to bring in more GA.

 

So, we won't have any $100M OW (without days of previews - I won't discount someone playing that game) til Memorial Day (or maybe even longer) without a discount ticket deal bump...if even then...

 

I mean, I shouldn't be surprised, though - but I was hopeful.  But then I didn't buy tickets...and since Aquaman, my kids haven't wanted any tickets this year, and haven't been bugging me about it, so it's fallen out of their interest and their friends' groups' interest.

 

Maybe I'll still buy tickets...and we'll get legs to $300M in the wasteland.  Sigh.

 

Okay, changing back to hope - c'mon 10x+ weekend multiplier...  

 

This is not a fun kid or even family friendly franchise.  It's heavy and it's dark.  Dark sci-fi has never been a hugely popular genre in film.  

 

The previous film opened to $41m. Yes it was Covid and HBO Max but even then it didn't hugely break out on streaming.  It did well but not Batman Begins or Austin Powers home media crazy.   But it's going to open at least 70% higher.  How is that disappointing?  How could one expect it to open 150% higher to a $100m plus?

[vale9001]

17 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Why would a DUNE film open to 3 digits though? It's actually a testament to the BO pull of the stars in the film that it's opening as high as it is. Refreshing after so much was made about the death of star power. The exact same cast would have opened a Spider-Man film to 150M+ easily if not more.

 

This. Reason this movie has some gp appeal It's because like the old Epic movies of the Classic era of Hollywood it's build on various big names of the moment, even for the smaller roles. With a cast like LOTR (or lynch's dune) the first movie would have been the bomb most were smelling after the announcement of a new remake.

 

Anyways this second chapter + the HBO max series is coming are gonna make people fans of this not only for the cast.

 

this weekend of dune in a range of 65-75M will be presented by media like a winning story after so many dead weekends and because the global numbers are good.

Edited March 1 by vale9001

[filmlover]

33 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Okay, so I'll be the downer.

 

If a great campaign with amazing stars with a greatly received movie can't break 3 digits OW, then we're in for a long year...and I hope a lot of studios have lined up $5 tickets, b/c that seems to be the only way (barring something uber-uber-huge) to bring in large swaths of GA folks who are just as happy to watch anything on the couch and get them talking and get WOM to bring in more GA.

 

So, we won't have any $100M OW (without days of previews - I won't discount someone playing that game) til Memorial Day (or maybe even longer) without a discount ticket deal bump...if even then...

 

I mean, I shouldn't be surprised, though - but I was hopeful.  But then I didn't buy tickets...and since Aquaman, my kids haven't wanted any tickets this year, and haven't been bugging me about it, so it's fallen out of their interest and their friends' groups' interest.

 

Maybe I'll still buy tickets...and we'll get legs to $300M in the wasteland.  Sigh.

 

Okay, changing back to hope - c'mon 10x+ weekend multiplier...  

This was never seriously in contention for a $100M+ opening at any point in time. Wishful predicting at its most obvious if there was.

[Starphanluke]

I just noticed AMC is classifying this as an Artisan Film. I can’t remember—did they do that with Oppenheimer?

[Brainbug]

Yeah, anything above 60M is a win for this in my book. No matter how great your hard Sci-Fi movie is, the simple fact that its a near 3 Hour hard Sci-Fi movie will automatically limit the amount of people who are willing to see this on Opening weekend. The legs otoh, could be a different story depending on how many people are swayed by the WOM (like with all films).

[Eric the Fall Guy]

27 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

This is not a fun kid or even family friendly franchise.

It was nominated for a Kids Choice Award though 🤔

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kids'_Choice_Awards

[Maggie]

I admit, i was one of the few who thought 100M was possible. In retrospect, i was wrong to think the pandemic affected the first one opening that much. Part two will outgross part 1 opening, but not by that huge of a margin. I guess, even without the pandemic, part 1 wouldn't have opened higher than 60M. This being part two, it had a ceiling.

[toutvabien]

Yeaaa, my only sure bets for $100M+ opening this year are Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine, with Joker Folie a Deux a very very likely one and then Despicable Me 4 and Sonic 3 next in line. Don't really think anything else demands opening anywhere near that either.

[Cmasterclay]

I mean the first one did less on streaming than Mortal Kombat did. We have actual metrics for these things, as unreliable as they sometimes can be. It opened to 40m and was meh on streaming. Opening to 70-75 is actually kind of insane. It was clear there was a hard ceiling. The only thing is the studios could see that ceiling too, so it's just that the studios should have found something bigger to release for the first five months of the damn year.

[Firepower]

2 hours ago, Mr Impossible said:

$70M is pretty great for this. Pretty big jump from the first one. People forget that a lot of people were bored by the first Dune movie. General audiences aren’t really into hardcore Sci-fi. This was never going to be a 4 quadrant movie. $200M DOM and $600M WW are great goals.

There are people who think LOTR is boring and yet it did bonkers.

[Eric the Fall Guy]

4 minutes ago, Firepower said:

There are people who think LOTR is boring and yet it did bonkers.

Both movies are still very different. Lord of the Rings is still a traditional adventure story with a solid "get to the end" goal that's easy to follow and characters that are pretty easy to empathize with. Dune is a lot more cerebral, a lot more contemplative, and a lot more based around philosophy and religion that isn't as easy a sell with the normies. Even the big action sequences in Dune don't really have the same kind of crowdpleasing aspects Lord of the Rings does. Which isn't a bad thing, but the tone between Rings and Dune are very night and day.

[Firepower]

Just now, Eric Atreides said:

Both movies are still very different. Lord of the Rings is still a traditional adventure story with a solid "get to the end" goal that's easy to follow and characters that are pretty easy to empathize with. Dune is a lot more cerebral, a lot more contemplative, and a lot more based around philosophy and religion that isn't as easy a sell with the normies. Even the big action sequences in Dune don't really have the same kind of crowdpleasing aspects Lord of the Rings does. Which isn't a bad thing, but the tone between Rings and Dune are very night and day.

I do agree about that, but my point is stranger movies made a ton at box office without being super accessible.

[John Marston]

Good opening for Dune but probably the last decent opening for a while. Can see all the other March releases disappointing 

[WorkingonaName]

Only 4 more weeks til the true start of blockbuster season.