3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M

[Borobudur]

22 minutes ago, Chaz said:

LOL Kung Fu Panda 4 opened higher than the other two sequels? Crazy.

I think this is the first time BOT tracking team is beaten by media projection. I am not sure was it deadline or Variety calling a 60m few days before preview on KP4 but most trackers think that was too high. 

[emoviefan]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

May is gonna be pretty fascinating due to the lack of a Marvel-sized juggernaut. On paper The Fall Guy is probably the most high-profile movie of the month given that both of its stars are coming off of major acclaimed blockbusters (that they both received Oscar nominations for)? We'll see what its reception at SXSW is like.

 

 

Even if The Fall Guy gets great reviews out of SXSW  and the hype starts to build lots of people around  here it seems will shrug it off and underestimate until  it has a 55+ opening weekend has great WOM with the GA and legs it out past 200 mill DOM. Now if Universal is making the same mistake Disney did with Dial of Destiny and the reviews are mixed at best then yeah not good. 

[efialtes76]

4 hours ago, leoh said:

from those you mentioned, the only one where it was not released yet is Japan.

???

I'm talking about KFP4...

Edited March 10 by efialtes76

[AniNate]

I think there is a chance 2024 can still come out ahead of 23 if everything expected to hit hits. A lot of modest blockbuster potential to make up for the lack of Marbarb titans. We could really make up some ground in the late summer/early fall way things are looking right now.

 

 

Edited March 10 by AniNate

[Daxtreme]

Watch the 3rd week-end for Dune, the PLFs are still going very strong, so that's a comfortable baseline securing lower drops. And there's no big opener. Should drop even better than this week-end

[John Marston]

 

[ThomasNicole]

Exceptional for both KFP4 and Dune tbh 

 

Panda is likely getting 200M which is a nice win for DW

 

Dune should be over 200M by next weekend, hard to see it not getting to 250M, and 300M is still alive. If it dropped 43% against a 60M opener, it should drop 30% next weekend.

[leoh]

52 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

So among Western pure romcoms (not including dramedy movies like Crazy Rich Asians or Silver Linings Playbook) Anyone But You is the biggest one in 14 years, since Valentine’s Day $217M (2010); top 25 of all times; and the 9th biggest Sony’s pure romcom ever (yeah not many people seem to remember but, before Marvel, Sony and Disney dominated the romcom genre with heavy hitters like “Hitch” and “My Best Friend's Wedding” (produced by Sony) or “Pretty Woman” and “The Proposal” (produced by Disney))

Edited March 10 by leoh

[titanic2187]

14 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Yeah it needs to be a good movie in many eyes. But above that, it should be a movie that doesn’t offend much people, especially now with the preferential ballot.
 

Which is why i think Roma lost to Green Book, or Power Of The Dog lost to Coda. They’re all somewhat decent movies (to most people), but the losers are clearly the better ones. Still, Roma and especially TPOTD probably lost because it pisses off some people. Even if they’re probably the movies with most top choices in the ballots, there’s also people hating it, while the winners was crowd pleasing projects that maybe didn’t get most top votes but are consistently high in the ballots without any backlash.
 

 

I think the reason Roma, The power of dog, or 1917 failed to prevail as the eventual winner, is largely attributable to the fact that they are the movie that people respect, appreciate or admire, rather than loving them to the heart.  Parasite, Coda or Green book are the kind of movie that voters love it genuinely, despite knowing their flaw. Voters are known to vote with their heart and if one really love a movie from the bottom of their heart, no way they are placing them at the bottom tier. 

[Barnack]

6 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Voters are known to vote with their heart and if one really love a movie from the bottom of their heart, no way they are placing them at the bottom tier.

That the nice aspect of them voting alone in a secret-anonymous way...

 

Room a la critic circle-Cane have also their advantage, having both existing at the same time making it easy to have the best of both.

[M37]

2 hours ago, Borobudur said:

I think this is the first time BOT tracking team is beaten by media projection. I am not sure was it deadline or Variety calling a 60m few days before preview on KP4 but most trackers think that was too high. 

To be fair, if you read back through the tracking there, the data was always there to justify a ~$60M opening, its just that there aren't many non-summer, non-Tue/Wed animated openings to lean on for comps and be able to confidently project that high.  Basically just Trolls 3, before reaching back to Sonic 2 and Bad Guys from 2 years ago

 

Plenty of trackers saw mid-$3M Thursday in their comps, though some not until the final week, and I had worked up an estimated IM range of 14-16x before that (though it looks KFP4 will backdoor its way into that range a bit, lower Fri/Thu ratio but higher Sat/Fri). The $3.8M Thur and ~15.5x we're getting is well within the margin of error (naturally higher for any film that sells such a high share of tickets late), but I think many (including me) had a difficult time believing that was going to come fruition. Yet it did!

[MightyDargon]

No one gives a flying fuck about the Fall Guy except this board

 

[Noctis]

Great for Dune and KFP4. 

 

I never believed in Dune 2 hitting $300m, not even with a $50m second weekend (well, that would have made things more believable). A $46.5m second weekend is amazing, and the fact that it's going to go well over $200m is a lot higher than what many predicted until the past two weeks. A total over $250m for a near 3-hour, dark sci-fi film is a massive win by any reasonable standard. I'm still seeing $275m-$285m. Its third weekend will be critical in determining where it will land.

 

A $700m WW finish is very likely happening, and that is fantastic.

 

And I really hope KFP4 hits $200m, too! It's an underrated franchise. 

[MovieMan89]

21 hours ago, Mr Impossible said:

I don’t agree. Migration and The Bad Guys just proved that original animation can still make $$$. Just make good ones that families want to see.

I never imagined Migration would end up being such an important movie for the medium, but it kind of is. Literally the only big studio original animation with a healthy profit of the past couple years. Problem still is that they had to make the budget tiny to pull it off. We will definitely see a dip in animation quality if studios now have to make their original animation for under 100, which is sad 

[keysersoze123]

Interesting audience skew for Panda. Another animation movie driven by teens/young adults. Wonder if that would mean worse than normal drop for a kids movie otherwise. Weekdays will confirm for sure. Still phenomenal OW for sure. 

 

Quote

PostTrak audiences gave the fourthquel an 80% positive and 59% definite recommend whilte kids under 12 were 90% positive and a 70% must see. Male skewing at 58% with 67% of the audience between 13-24. 18-24 year olds showed up at a massive 48%. Diversity demos are 44% Latino and Hispanic, 22% Caucasian, 11% Black and 18% Asian. PLFs are accounting for 6% of tickets sales while 3D is driving 17%. West and South are the most vibrant with the highest grossing cinema in the nation for the pic being The Cinemark Tinseltown El Paso TX with a near $40K so far.

 

[KP1025]

2 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Interesting audience skew for Panda. Another animation movie driven by teens/young adults. Wonder if that would mean worse than normal drop for a kids movie otherwise. Weekdays will confirm for sure. Still phenomenal OW for sure. 

 

 

 

Top cinema being in El Paso is pretty unheard of for a major blockbuster in my experience. 

[Ozymandias]

Very nice for Arrakis.

 

I'll be seeing it again on Tuesday with some people who haven't seen it yet.  Last time I saw a movie more than once at the theater was Fury Road.

[keysersoze123]

3 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

 

Top cinema being in El Paso is pretty unheard of for a major blockbuster in my experience. 

Limited PLF and no Imax can do that so sure. Cinemark at least gave it XD/DBox shows and so its expected to do well over there. 

[AniNate]

26 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I never imagined Migration would end up being such an important movie for the medium, but it kind of is. Literally the only big studio original animation with a healthy profit of the past couple years. Problem still is that they had to make the budget tiny to pull it off. We will definitely see a dip in animation quality if studios now have to make their original animation for under 100, which is sad 

 

Benjamin Renner's much better movies were still made for a fraction of that budget. I wouldn't mind a pivot to more simplified animation styles if it means he's allowed more creative freedom to do an idea of his own that's not so generic.

 

I think IF represents another test for original family films, maybe moreso than Migration since it really is an organic idea developed and shepherded by its writer/director. I just hope it's a lot better than the trailer is letting on.

[Minnale101]

El Paso is like 80% Mexican too, bodes well for kung fu panda 4 release in Mexico this month who love animation movies