SPECTRE | 11/6/15 | Final Trailer on Page 126! | Twitter reactions coming in, STID 2.0?

[Kalo]

3 hours ago, treeroy said:

Only 2.6x multi? Why would it be so low? Movie thats generally well received and aimed at older audience, opening to 70M it will clear 200M no problemo.

 

Bautista was great and the only thing I liked in the movie. His first line was, "Shit", if you remember :)

 

I'd say it's reception is mixed. most people thought it was okay, but they're not raving about it. also on IMDB it is already down to a 7.3 and it's barely fresh on RT. the fact that it's actually weekend was $3m below its estimation doesn't bold so well for it's staying power either. Mockingjay will hurt it's legs. and they will be completely cut off once TFA comes out. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

36 minutes ago, Kalo said:

 

I'd say it's reception is mixed. most people thought it was okay, but they're not raving about it. also on IMDB it is already down to a 7.3 and it's barely fresh on RT. the fact that it's actually weekend was $3m below its estimation doesn't bold so well for it's staying power either. Mockingjay will hurt it's legs. and they will be completely cut off once TFA comes out.

To be fair, it wasn't gonna make a lot after the 18th of December regardless if SW was releasing or not. But I don't think legs in the near term are going to be that great, as you said. I'm just hoping MJ2 surprises me with a OW on the level of THG/CF, but that would really chop off the legs of Spectre.

[Avatree]

The amount of money it would make after 18th December is about 3% of the total gross. SW is not exactly gonna make or break it.

[Kalo]

3 minutes ago, Jayhawk said:

To be fair, it wasn't gonna make a lot after the 18th of December regardless if SW was releasing or not. But I don't think legs in the near term are going to be that great, as you said. I'm just hoping MJ2 surprises me with a OW on the level of THG/CF, but that would really chop off the legs of Spectre.

 

the Only reason I said that is sometimes movies get a nice boost around Christmas where they barely drop at all given them a nice final boost. Skyfall still made $25m after the third weekend of december. SPECTRE will be mostly likely booted out of theaters to accommodate TFA.(most of them anyway) which otherwise may have given it a boost to reach $200m. MJP2 should open quite a bit above MJP1, but I would be shocked if it hit $150m+ opening weekend. I'm thinking $130-$135m. 

[a2k]

Spectre can fall below 200m. 2.8x gives it 197m. 2.8x is not that low a multiplier even in Nov, for a film with mixed reception. If it gets too close to 200m the studio will give it a push but it can easily have a decent multiplier between 2.7-2.8x and end up in low to mid 190s. 2.7x gives 190m, 2.75x gives 193.5m

[JohnnyGossamer]

I'm thinking under $200M DOM but over $900 WW for Spectre.

[terrestrial]

8 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

It's Batista not Bautista. I can't remember him saying any lines lol. All his scenes were great though, especially the train scene.

 

Nope, it's Bautista, Batista is his wrestling-fighter-stage-name or however that is called

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Bautista

 

Thanks to both of you, I knew he didn't have a line (beside the one 'word'   ), but I do not think spoken lines are always needed to be impactful enough to be remembered 7 standing out or...

 

As I said, I like the henchmen/women of Bond movies (sometimes even more than the 'true' villian), not the first time one of those doesn't say a lot

 

[grim22]

This guy sitting behind me in the cafeteria at work is downright ranting about this movie. He apparently has all the Bond movies on his phone and was "crushingly disappointed" by this one because "it felt like a cheeky Roger Moore movie". The guy sounds pissed and turned off his 3 coworkers from watching this.

[kayumanggi]

4 hours ago, terrestrial said:

 

Nope, it's Bautista, Batista is his wrestling-fighter-stage-name or however that is called

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dave_Bautista

 

Thanks to both of you, I knew he didn't have a line (beside the one 'word'   ), but I do not think spoken lines are always needed to be impactful enough to be remembered 7 standing out or...

 

As I said, I like the henchmen/women of Bond movies (sometimes even more than the 'true' villian), not the first time one of those doesn't say a lot

 

 

Ha ha. I didn't know some knew his last name more than the screen name he uses.

[a2k]

Nice analysis (apart from it mentioning cinemascore) from BOM http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4120&p=.htm

 

Quote

 

The big tell will not necessarily be in Spectre's second weekend, but more in its third and fourth. Expect it to drop somewhere around 50-55% next weekend, but after that it finds itself in direct competition with The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2. While Quantum of Solace had to contend with Twilight on its second weekend, the Hunger Games franchise has a far more genetically diverse audience and, being the final installment in the franchise, it's likely to put a huge dent in Spectre's take. When you look at both Skyfall and Quantum of Solace, while both faced 53-60% drops in their second weekends they did quite well in their third weekends with Skyfall in-particular only dropping 13.6%, holding on strong from then on.

 

Looking for a calendar comparison outside of the Bond franchise, Thor: The Dark World was another big November, franchise opener. Kicking things off with $85 million in 2013 along with an "A-" CinemaScore, The Dark World just barely eked out a $206.3 million domestic run. Outside the November timeframe, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes opened with $72.6 million and an "A-" CinemaScore last year before finishing with $208.5 million.

 

As for a future prediction, it seems very safe to assume Spectre will top Quantum's $168.3 million domestic take, and if I had to wager a guess I'd say it will settle in around $185 million once all is said and done. Overseas, however, the sky is the limit.

 

 

I am thinking high 180s to low 190s. Would be fun to see how close Peanuts gets to it. Wreck It Ralph got 189m after a 49m ow.

Edited November 11, 2015 by a2knet

[zackzack]

17 hours ago, antovolk said:

......how do the Chinese get better posters than the rest of us?

 

Whoa ! Seriously sick !!

[Bastien]

The movie is probably going to do the biggest OD of alltime in France...

In admission the record is owned since 2007 by Spider-Man 3 which did 804 000 admission during the French's labor day (May the 1st).

In dollars the record is owned since 2011 by Harry Potter 7-2

 

Spectre already did 270 000 admissions during its advanced screenings.

[Bond Bug]

20 hours ago, grim22 said:

This guy sitting behind me in the cafeteria at work is downright ranting about this movie. He apparently has all the Bond movies on his phone and was "crushingly disappointed" by this one because "it felt like a cheeky Roger Moore movie". The guy sounds pissed and turned off his 3 coworkers from watching this.

 

A cheeky Roger Moore movie? Sounds perfect to me. I don't know what he has to complain about.  

[TalismanRing]

6 hours ago, BastienGiot said:

The movie is probably going to do the biggest OD of alltime in France...

In admission the record is owned since 2007 by Spider-Man 3 which did 804 000 admission during the French's labor day (May the 1st).

In dollars the record is owned since 2011 by Harry Potter 7-2

 

Spectre already did 270 000 admissions during its advanced screenings.

 

Opening on Armistice Day had a little something to do with it

[Bastien]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Opening on Armistice Day had a little something to do with it

Off course. But it's still an impressive number...

 

Last number can let think that's the movie could hit 900k... Or even more !

[DAJK]

So yesterday showed how lopsided Tuesday's are at our theatre. Peanuts opened to the equivalent of $44.9M at our theatre, but had a Tuesday of $14.1M. Spectre opened to $90M but had a Tuesday of $32M.

[rickfox]

Just out of cinema, every xxxx has a journey, and every journey has its end.

 

Mr Bond says hi to The Dark Knight Rises

 

7.5 out of 10

[langer]

Saw this yesterday and was pleasantly surprised.  The general feedback I was getting suggested a subpar movie, but to me it was about as good as Casino Royale and barely below Skyfall. 

 

Daniel Craig's Bond is much more interesting than Brosnan. 

[RichWS]

On 11/10/2015, 3:05:13, grim22 said:

This guy sitting behind me in the cafeteria at work is downright ranting about this movie. He apparently has all the Bond movies on his phone and was "crushingly disappointed" by this one because "it felt like a cheeky Roger Moore movie". The guy sounds pissed and turned off his 3 coworkers from watching this.

 

If you've seen all of the Bonds, I don't know how you can complain that this felt like a Moore movie. Maybe it has a little more of that "cheeky" humor than Craig's past films, but there's nothing here near that level. I guess he would have been happier with another grim one like Quantum. 

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

8 minutes ago, RichWS said:

 

If you've seen all of the Bonds, I don't know how you can complain that this felt like a Moore movie. Maybe it has a little more of that "cheeky" humor than Craig's past films, but there's nothing here near that level. I guess he would have been happier with another grim one like Quantum.

Don't know about that guy, but I for one really wanted to see Craig in a full on clown disguise.

Edited November 12, 2015 by Jayhawk