It | Sept. 8, 2017 | Warner Brothers | Andy Muschietti directing. Trailer on Page 12 NO SPOILER DISCUSSION. Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I think IT could do for horror what The Hangover did for comedy

That's actually a good comparison. We'll see if it plays out that way.

[Jake Gittes]

1 minute ago, Boxofficerules said:

I think IT could do for horror what The Hangover did for comedy

 

Be a fluke that nothing will come close to in the foreseeable future?

 

I dunno why people expect the performance of this to make any long-lasting waves. It's setting itself to be a perfect storm, a freak of nature, and it's going to remain that. 

[nomyth]

I agree that I just can't see this below 70.

 

Anyone following the tracking thread knows that presales have been akin to a CBM. And the most important factor imo is just how absolutely dead the market is right now. Even worse than I originally expected. My original prediction was 80-85M and now I'm thinking more 85-90. Still not completely sold on anything higher just yet but it'll be interesting to see how much it's presales rise next week.

[Rumpot]

8 minutes ago, nomyth said:

I agree that I just can't see this below 70.

 

Anyone following the tracking thread knows that presales have been akin to a CBM. And the most important factor imo is just how absolutely dead the market is right now. Even worse than I originally expected. My original prediction was 80-85M and now I'm thinking more 85-90. Still not completely sold on anything higher just yet but it'll be interesting to see how much it's presales rise next week.

Exactly. Why low-ball with the basic "this is an R rated horror movie" ratinale when the presales are far higher than anyone would expect for an R rated horror movie.  It's clearly not following conventional in-the-box.thinking so at what point do you abandon that and acknowledge this is a rule-breaker.

[langer]

45 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said:

I think IT could do for horror what The Hangover did for comedy

 

Hangover opened to mid 40's though 

 

Concerning the high OW predictions and clubs, what I'm seeing from the local theaters here in Birmingham AL is not a lot of showtimes.  It's not on par with the 100M-120M OW CBM.  These movies usually get 30-36 showings on Thursdays to generate their high OW.  IT is currently sitting at 12 and should bump up to 20 when all is said and done.  As far as Friday showtimes are concerned, only 27 showings have been confirmed so far while CBM that open in the 100-120M range usually have between 90 to 110 showings on Friday.   IT should bump up to 70ish when all is said and done.

 

I'm thinking 65-80M OW at the moment. 

Edited September 1, 2017 by langer

[baumer]

48 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I think you are correct. Everything is building up to the movie having a huge opening.

 

Yes i think/hope you are right.

[langer]

3 minutes ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said:

 

Better check what you are replying to...  This is the IT thread, not the Close Encounter...

[baumer]

I already fixed it.

[K1stpierre]

10 minutes ago, langer said:

Better check what you are replying to...  This is the IT thread, not the Close Encounter...

 

9 minutes ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said:

I already fixed it.

 

I was gonna say  , I was like "Am I missing something here?" lmao

[Deep Wang]

15 minutes ago, langer said:

 

Hangover opened to mid 40's though 

 

Concerning the high OW predictions and clubs, what I'm seeing from the local theaters here in Birmingham AL is not a lot of showtimes.  It's not on par with the 100M-120M OW CBM.  These movies usually get 30-36 showings on Thursdays to generate their high OW.  IT is currently sitting at 12 and should bump up to 20 when all is said and done.  As far as Friday showtimes are concerned, only 27 showings have been confirmed so far while CBM that open in the 100-120M range usually have between 90 to 110 showings on Friday.   IT should bump up to 70ish when all is said and done.

 

I'm thinking 65-80M OW at the moment. 

That's because theaters don't have their final bookings yet.  There will be a massive jump in showtimes next Tuesday/Wednesday.

Edited September 1, 2017 by Boner Omega

[Rumpot]

26 minutes ago, langer said:

 

Hangover opened to mid 40's though 

 

Concerning the high OW predictions and clubs, what I'm seeing from the local theaters here in Birmingham AL is not a lot of showtimes.  It's not on par with the 100M-120M OW CBM.  These movies usually get 30-36 showings on Thursdays to generate their high OW.  IT is currently sitting at 12 and should bump up to 20 when all is said and done.  As far as Friday showtimes are concerned, only 27 showings have been confirmed so far while CBM that open in the 100-120M range usually have between 90 to 110 showings on Friday.   IT should bump up to 70ish when all is said and done.

 

I'm thinking 65-80M OW at the moment. 

Is there an argument to put a positive spin on this?  That the presales rival CBMs despite fewer listed showings at the moment?

[MCKillswitch123]

For any fellow Collider/Schmoes fans (or even non-fans but lovers of film in general) out here, this Monday there's gonna be a Movie Trivia Schmoedown special featuring the children who play the Losers Club in It. That should be fun.

 

Anyway, yeah, at this point, It is giving me American Sniper deja-vu. Not saying it's gonna do that much, just saying that I think it could set the September OW bar far higher than it used to be.

[Deep Wang]

I think the reason I can't get aboard the $90-100m train yet is there is a simple reason that most highly anticipated horror movies "only" open to $40m or so.

 

They're horror movies.  Does anyone here go see horror movies during the day?  Do these shows sell out?  I know I can't answer that because I've never been to a horror movie during the day.   So you're looking at movies that will do the majority of their business after 5-6pm.  

 

The ones that have opened up over $50-60m aren't 'straight' horror movies. They're action movies with zombies or whatever.  This will have to have A.M./Matinee shows doing 50-65% capacity at least to stand a chance I think.

 

The other side of that is the massive 4,000 theatres.  Maybe that's enough to counter less attendance during the day?

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Boner Omega said:

They're horror movies.  Does anyone here go see horror movies during the day?  Do these shows sell out?  I know I can't answer that because I've never been to a horror movie during the day.   So you're looking at movies that will do the majority of their business after 5-6pm.  

Not a bad point (never thought about that)

[WrathOfHan]

7 minutes ago, Boner Omega said:

I think the reason I can't get aboard the $90-100m train yet is there is a simple reason that most highly anticipated horror movies "only" open to $40m or so.

 

They're horror movies.  Does anyone here go see horror movies during the day?  Do these shows sell out?  I know I can't answer that because I've never been to a horror movie during the day.   So you're looking at movies that will do the majority of their business after 5-6pm.  

 

The ones that have opened up over $50-60m aren't 'straight' horror movies. They're action movies with zombies or whatever.  This will have to have A.M./Matinee shows doing 50-65% capacity at least to stand a chance I think.

 

The other side of that is the massive 4,000 theatres.  Maybe that's enough to counter less attendance during the day?

*raises hand*

 

Every horror film I've seen this year has been during the day, and nearly all of them were OD:

 

Split: There were about 20 people in the early afternoon

Life: There were about 20 people just after noon

Alien: There were about 45-50 people at 10 AM

ICAN: There were only 7 or 8 people in the early afternoon

47 Meters: There were about 10 people on a weekday matinee

Wish Upon: This was during its second week with only me and two other people

Annabelle: There were over 30 people before 11 AM

 

Keep in mind the theaters I go to are pretty older-skewing during the day. In It's case though, it'll definitely need the biggest screens all day. It's not like anything else needs them  

Edited September 1, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[Rumpot]

The day showings for next Saturday I'm glancing through aren't empty.  They already have 10-20 people, even the 10:30am ones.  I will follow AMC Empire through the week to see if the Saturday day showings are filling up.  I expect they will as I think this movie is pulling in a few different demographics - only once of these is the hardcore horror fans.  I don't think the nostalgia crowd or the Stranger things crowd will care about watching during the day.  In fact a good chunk of people that are scared, but want to watch it may end up going in the day

[Krissykins]

6 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

No, that would be INCREDIBLY disappointing with how high tracking is  

 

Not for an R rated horror film 

 

 

Anyway: tracking is now $60-66m as per Deadlines Friday update. 

[langer]

1 hour ago, Boner Omega said:

That's because theaters don't have their final bookings yet.  There will be a massive jump in showtimes next Tuesday/Wednesday.

 

Yes there is always a bump on Monday-Tuesday in showtimes when they report.  I'm just saying the current showtimes are low in comparison to CBM 7 days out. 

52 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

Is there an argument to put a positive spin on this?  That the presales rival CBMs despite fewer listed showings at the moment?

Yeah I guess so although I think that the reports saying this is rivaling CBM presales are probably comparing with mid level CBM like X-Men, Ant Man and Doc Strange. 

[AndyLL]

4 hours ago, Rumpot said:

Really low predictions based on sticking with a simple analysis despite many indicators to the contrary just ring hollow at this point

 

2 hours ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I think you are correct. Everything is building up to the movie having a huge opening.

 

1 hour ago, Rumpot said:

Is there an argument to put a positive spin on this?  That the presales rival CBMs despite fewer listed showings at the moment?

But I don't think they are rivaling CBMs.

 

I check the 7:00 showing at the Dolby theater I'm see it in and for Thurs, Fri and Saturday there are about 20 tickets sold for each night.

 

There is more hype for this outside of the typical Horror fans but the huge predictions over 80 million are crazy.

 

 

[junkshop36]

I'll just say this:

 

I NEVER go see horror movies in theaters, NEVER. I'm definitely going to see IT. It looks too damn good to not see plus there hasn't been anything else worth going to theater for over the last month or so. 

 

I'm sticking with my 70-80m opening.