Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Maybe China is back on the table 🫠

[stephen]

10 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Max Opening 220m - 6x legs - $1.3b

Min Opening 150m - 8x legs - $1.125b

 

I'm expecting something like this, bigger Opening means smaller legs but more overall gross.

 

 

Wow. First domestic billion maker? If anyone can do it, it's James Cameron

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

29 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Max Opening 220m - 6x legs - $1.3b

Min Opening 150m - 8x legs - $1.125b

 

I'm expecting something like this, bigger Opening means smaller legs but more overall gross.

 

 

Max Opening - $180M + 3.5-4.5x legs

Min Opening - $130M + 4-5.5x legs 

 

My current prediction is $160M / 4.25x 

[IronJimbo]

30 minutes ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

Max Opening - $180M + 3.5-4.5x legs

Min Opening - $130M + 4-5.5x legs 

 

My current prediction is $160M / 4.25x 

it's so hard to predict opening weekend honestly, 190m ow into 1.2b sounds about right to me

 

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, hw64 said:

If The Last Jedi and The Rise of Skywalker, two relatively poorly-received instalments from what was once the most frontloaded franchise of them all can both manage a hair shy of 3x multipliers with significantly higher opening weekends (with Avatar 2's opening weekend average ticket price, circa-$300m and circa-$250m respectively) and significantly more competition than Avatar 2 will have, then I don't really see any reason to expect Avatar 2 to have a multiplier as low as 3.5x unless it really doesn't hit the mark.

 

I'd say 4-5.5x multiplier, 6x if it's another Avatar.

 

Okay, so maybe I'm crazy, but having no competition isn't always a good thing.  Christmas is the one time of the year, that I think competition is good.  

 

I was there in Dec 2017 and I saw with my own eyes people not being able to get into Jumanji, so they went to TLJ(not every single time of course).  There's no way to quantify this obviously, but especially during December movies perform JUST fine with lots of competition.  The Christmas break is basically nonstop Saturdays for 2 weeks except for the two Eve's.

 

Original Avatar had Sherlock Holmes, Alvin and the Chipmunks, and It's Complicated opening on it's second weekend with a combined $132m dollars and Avatar still BARELY dropped.  

[hw64]

1 hour ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Okay, so maybe I'm crazy, but having no competition isn't always a good thing.  Christmas is the one time of the year, that I think competition is good.  

 

I was there in Dec 2017 and I saw with my own eyes people not being able to get into Jumanji, so they went to TLJ(not every single time of course).  There's no way to quantify this obviously, but especially during December movies perform JUST fine with lots of competition.  The Christmas break is basically nonstop Saturdays for 2 weeks except for the two Eve's.

 

Original Avatar had Sherlock Holmes, Alvin and the Chipmunks, and It's Complicated opening on it's second weekend with a combined $132m dollars and Avatar still BARELY dropped.  

 

Plenty of business to go around at Christmas, I agree, but I don't think there's an argument to be made that more competition is better than no competition at Christmas, just that it's less worse than no competition than at any other time of the year due to the sheer amount of potential business that there is to go around.

 

In the case of Jumanji and The Last Jedi, having closely followed the runs of both of those movies, I don't think you can reasonably make the argument that the significant drain of business that the well-received, crowd-pleasing Jumanji was on the divisive The Last Jedi outweighed the ostensibly small amount of spillover business that The Last Jedi gained as a result of Jumanji sell-outs. I don't think it's reasonable to claim that The Last Jedi without Jumanji would have made less than it actually did with Jumanji as competition.

 

Given that any significant amount of spillover business is contingent on very well-performing competitors, I can't agree that Avatar 2 would have been in a better position with more competition than it has. Puss in Boots 2 is bound to do very well, and given that there's relatively little overlap between the two movies' audiences, Avatar 2 will likely benefit from some spillover business there without being significantly adversely affected by the "competition", as will Puss from Avatar. In terms of release conditions, I think that's close to ideal.

[shachi86]

I saw Black Panther yesterday and the Avatar 2 trailer looks as unimpressive on the big screen as it does on YouTube.

 

They actually played the Ant-Man 3 trailer after it, and that had much, much more impressive visuals than Avatar!

 

Gotta say though, Disney seems to be working hard to cross both Avatar and Predator with the MCU. Black Panther had both blue people and one of the characters using a suit that made her look like the Predator!

[Morieris]

hm, I wasn't the only one who thought the trailer looked kind of bad on the big screen, I see. I'm still interested, but I was kind of surprised.

[Reddroast]

6 hours ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

Max Opening - $180M + 3.5-4.5x legs

Min Opening - $130M + 4-5.5x legs 

 

My current prediction is $160M / 4.25x 

That would put the dom at 680m right

[WittyUsername]

I watched WF in the standard format, but the teaser looked pretty good on the big screen to me. 

[Verrows]

5 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Okay, so maybe I'm crazy, but having no competition isn't always a good thing.  Christmas is the one time of the year, that I think competition is good.  

 

I was there in Dec 2017 and I saw with my own eyes people not being able to get into Jumanji, so they went to TLJ(not every single time of course).  There's no way to quantify this obviously, but especially during December movies perform JUST fine with lots of competition.  The Christmas break is basically nonstop Saturdays for 2 weeks except for the two Eve's.

 

Original Avatar had Sherlock Holmes, Alvin and the Chipmunks, and It's Complicated opening on it's second weekend with a combined $132m dollars and Avatar still BARELY dropped.  

I really think you're on to something here, and I think it also has to do with that exciting hustle and bustle at the theatre that only happens when there are multiple desired attractions, not just one giant attraction plus a couple small counterprogrammers.

 

When theatres have that energy in them.feom.busy crowds it's infectious.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

22 minutes ago, Reddroast said:

That would put the dom at 680m right

 

Correct. 

[poweranimals]

Yeah, but I doubt Alvin and the Chipmunks was selling out. 😂

[GOGODanca]

There's a  premier on 12th December but I don't know if it's it's first one since it's in the contract with New Zealand government that they get a premier for the sequels as well 

[Macleod]

Funny PR people (if that is indeed where this Premiere announcement is coming from)...Sam Worthington not listed on that premiere listing.  😁🤷‍♂️

[kayumanggi]

Ant-Man 3 having better visuals than Avatar 2? 😭😭😭 No. Just no. 😂

[CaptNathanBrittles]

9 hours ago, K'uk'ulkan XXR said:

Maybe China is back on the table 🫠

 

How much evil can one picture contain?

[marveldcfox]

36 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

Ant-Man 3 having better visuals than Avatar 2? 😭😭😭 No. Just no. 😂

It's okay. Let Ant-Man 3 have its fans. Box office wise we know what's going to happen.

[Borobudur]

5 hours ago, GOGODanca said:

There's a  premier on 12th December but I don't know if it's it's first one since it's in the contract with New Zealand government that they get a premier for the sequels as well 

That is a very late premiere date if this is the first world premiere, especially for a movie not exposed to spoiler risk. 

The first avatar premiered at London on Dec 10, one week before its first preview show.  

[adaros]

10 hours ago, shachi86 said:

They actually played the Ant-Man 3 trailer after it, and that had much, much more impressive visuals than Avatar!

Spy Kids 4 beating Avatar 2 

Impressive