Toy Story 4 | June 20, 2019 | 6th most profitable movie of 2019. Disney does it again!

[filmscholar]

TS3 did over 110 OW almost 10 years ago.  Even though we've had closure from TS3, I'm still expecting a breakout.   I'm torn on comparing it to what just happen with "Dory" and "I2" because those sequels were heavily anticipated and had a 15 year gap.   With that said, Toy Story is the Big Daddy of Pixar.  

[Curtis1986]

This has not been a great week for Disney haters. First a lion king came on tracking very strong then Aladdin over performs and now Toy Story 4 is about to be huge

[UserHN]

1 hour ago, Curtis1986 said:

This has not been a great week for Disney haters. First a lion king came on tracking very strong then Aladdin over performs and now Toy Story 4 is about to be huge

TLK hasn't come on the tracking board yet. So every other OW figures out there are just based on instincts. Generally, movies come to the tracking board 3 weeks before release. I'm expecting TLK's tracking numbers to come out this last week of June.

[KP1025]

I'm genuinely blown away by the early presales data for Toy Story 4. The trailer views and general reception online didn't seem to point to a huge breakout. It will be interesting to see how it maintains the pace with Incredibles 2 as we get closer to the opening date. Also, SLOP2's legs will probably be hit even harder than I thought.

[John Marston]

But I was told Pikachu was more hyped than this 

[meriodejaneiro]

4 hours ago, rihrey said:

So Toy Story 4, The Lion King, Frozen 2 and Star Wars 9 could all open above $200M? i- 

Disney could have 5 200M+ ow and 600M+ dom movies this year:

 

EG (done)

TS4

TLK

F2

TROS

 

This could make a good BOM Club. 

[meriodejaneiro]

Also a TS4 over 200M ow Club could work. 

[UserHN]

53 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Also a TS4 over 200M ow Club could work. 

Variety has it at $100M to $150M while Deadline says it can approach $200M. I'll just take the mid number which is $150M. Lol

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Disney could have 5 200M+ ow and 600M+ dom movies this year:

 

EG (done)

TS4

TLK

F2

TROS

 

This could make a good BOM Club. 

Sadly, @VenomXXR is not as ambitious as you.

 

 

I think there's a chance all four could hit 600m, but I'm not quite there yet.  If only because of TS4 and TLK and then Frozen II and TROS cannibalizing each other just enough for one of them to come up short.  

[tupek]

Did anybody feel kind of disappointed that the heavily anticipated Toy Story 3 was not able to break the animation OW from Shrek 3 and highest grossing animation record from Shrek , even with years of inflation and with 3D support?

 

That is my reason I thought this movie could not be that big. But hey, I for one, happy seeing this breaking out

[John Marston]

6 minutes ago, tupek said:

Did anybody feel kind of disappointed that the heavily anticipated Toy Story 3 was not able to break the animation OW from Shrek 3 and highest grossing animation record from Shrek , even with years of inflation and with 3D support?

 

That is my reason I thought this movie could not be that big. But hey, I for one, happy seeing this breaking out

 

 

I do remember being disappointed at that

 

 

but now maybe Toy Story 4 will be able to do it. 

[Juby]

5 hours ago, meriodejaneiro said:

Disney could have 5 200M+ ow and 600M+ dom movies this year:

 

EG (done)

TS4

TLK

F2

TROS

 

This could make a good BOM Club. 

 

Remove Star Wars, 200/600 is not gonna happen.  

[stephanos13]

I'm more hyped for Toy Story 4 than The Lion King and also more hyped for Frozen 2 than Toy Story 4.

What the hell is wrong with me? 😄 

[Omni]

Nothing

[Arlo245]

8 hours ago, UserHN said:

Variety has it at $100M to $150M while Deadline says it can approach $200M. I'll just take the mid number which is $150M. Lol

I have a club for that

[eddyxx]

Lol no way this does 200m OW

[UserHN]

13 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

Lol no way this does 200m OW

Deadline thinks it can do it due to on fire presales. But Variety is more realistic, having it at $100M to $150M.

[eddyxx]

People are just buying tickets online ahead of time more and more every year. It'll open to Captain Marvel numbers at best.

[UserHN]

6 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

People are just buying tickets online ahead of time more and more every year. It'll open to Captain Marvel numbers at best.

Dory or CM numbers are good. Remember that people in this forum and Reddit have been underpredicting TS4 a lot (same to what they did with CM and Aladdin). By the way, I2 is just last year. So it's still safe to compare TS4 to I2 presales.

[jedijake]

I doubt it, but T4 could still end up performing like Cars sequels or even Monsters University in terms of multipliers (2.85-3.25). Now, those movies didn't even get the hype of TS4 or have pre-sales but, as many have said, pre-sales are a "thing" now.

 

But an opening of $150 million and an MU multiplier would give a $490 million domestic which may be where BOP was going. They weren't going to jump on a $200 million OW, at least not now. And they weren't going to factor a Finding Dory/Inside Out multiplier. I think an MU multiplier is a good place to start and $150 million is a nice middle ground based on pre-sales. By the time TS4 comes out, Aladdin and even Pets2 will start to wane.