Weekend #s: Neeson 40.4M, Selma 11.2, ITW 9.75, Hobbit 9.4, Unbroken 8.3. All #s pg 15. Happy now Kayu?

[FilmBuff]

Non Stop was freaking awesome! I'm curious to see how taken 3 is!

[narniadis]

And the terrible numbers did not get better

[Asyulus]

Nice opening for Tak3n, im hoping for 37mln OW.

Horrible for Martin Luther, it wont reach 100mln domestically total

Decent for Hobbit, 2.47mln, actually less than 60% drop, so it should pass 235mln by Sunday.

Edited January 10, 2015 by Adrius

[Lordmandeep]

I think box office will take off with fifty shades and the die until the double whamy of Fast 7 and TA2. 

 

I think this will be the year of the mega sequel and they will dominate. 

Edited January 10, 2015 by Lordmandeep

[Mango]

I think box office will take off with fifty shades and the die until the double whamy of Fast 7 and TA2. 

 

I think this will be the year of the mega sequel and they will dominate. 

 

The past several years have been the "year of the mega sequel". It's nothing new.

[Elessar]

god damn looks like a 2011 on our hands

 

So we are less than two weeks into new year and you are already in doom and gloom mode? You are reading way too much into the first 10 days. That's 10 out of 365. Nothing. Forgotten the movie slate? There's a lot of heavy hitter coming this year.

[CoolioD1]

I think box office will take off with fifty shades and the die until the double whamy of Fast 7 and TA2. 

 

I think this will be the year of the mega sequel and they will dominate. 

Cinderella will be big I reckon.

[picores]

38m is a solid enough OW for Taken 3. The second was coming from a very well received first one, this...not so much. 100m probably wont happen, 85-90m is more likely. Add +200 OS and well...300m WW with 50m budget is still fantastic.

[Asyulus]

38m is a solid enough OW for Taken 3. The second was coming from a very well received first one, this...not so much. 100m probably wont happen, 85-90m is more likely. Add +200 OS and well...300m WW with 50m budget is still fantastic.

I think it will get to 100mln domestic, it was a very strong start despite horrible reviews.

[filmlover]

Cinderella will be big I reckon.

Yeah, Cinderella is gonna really clean up. Bet on it.

[DAJK]

The Taken movies (even the second) have some pretty good legs. Taken 2 wasn't expected to "leg" it way to 140 after the reviews trashed it. However, it did score a 2.8 multiplier. I think Taken 3 will be a bit lower than that but with a 37M weekend and a 2.6miltiplier, it still gets to 96.2M. I'm expecting though either a 2.65multiplier or a 38M weekend; Fox is going to do whatever it taken to get this past 100M.

I'm so disappointed in Selma's box office. It's not playing in my theatre this week so I can't comment on quality. However, with a 12M OW, I expect a major increase next weekend, with 18-21M over 4 days. Maybe I'm being too optimistic, but I really hope this cracks 100M. 75-80 is more likely though.

[TalismanRing]

http://pro.boxoffice.com/statistics/bo_numbers/early_estimate/2015-01-10

Early Weekend Estimates (Domestic) Fri, Jan. 9 - Sun, Jan. 11

← previous

Wide (1000+)

#	Title	weekend		Locations		Avg.	Total	Wks.	Dist.
1	Taken 3	$39,500,000	--	3,594	--	$10,991	$39,500,000	1	Fox
2	Selma	$12,000,000	1795%	2,179	2157	$5,507	$14,286,949	3	Paramount
3	The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies	$9,500,000	-56%	3,402	-473	$2,792	$236,582,487	4	Warner Bros. / New Line
4	Into the Woods	$9,400,000	-50%	2,833	295	$3,318	$104,921,929	3	Disney
5	Unbroken	$8,500,000	-53%	3,301	111	$2,575	$101,734,270	3	Universal
6	The Imitation Game	$8,000,000	3%	1,566	812	$5,109	$41,216,439	7	Weinstein Company
7	Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb	$5,900,000	-59%	3,371	-431	$1,750	$98,723,488	4	Fox
8	The Woman In Black 2: Angel of Death	$4,500,000	-70%	2,602	0	$1,729	$22,009,105	2	Relativity Media
9	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1	$3,700,000	-51%	2,063	-442	$1,794	$329,474,553	8	Lionsgate
10	Annie (2014)	$3,600,000	-68%	2,856	-310	$1,261	$78,118,050	4	Sony / Columbia
11	Wild (2014)	$2,700,000	-41%	1,286	-75	$2,100	$30,338,942	6	Fox Searchlight
12	The Gambler	$2,400,000	-62%	2,121	-373	$1,132	$32,357,314	3	Paramount
13	Big Hero 6	$2,200,000	-54%	1,580	-333	$1,392	$214,415,958	10	Disney
14	Big Eyes	$1,300,000	-50%	1,044	-364	$1,245	$12,261,682	3	Weinstein Company
15	Exodus: Gods and Kings	$930,000	-76%	1,142	-1118	$814	$63,482,105	5	Fox
16	Penguins of Madagascar	$730,000	-75%	1,057	-528	$691	$79,407,626	7	Fox / DreamWorks Animation

Limited (100 — 999)

#	Title	weekend		Locations		Avg.	Total	Wks.	Dist.
1	Inherent Vice	$3,000,000	1093%	645	629	$4,651	$4,578,965	5	Warner Bros
2	Birdman	$530,000	-38%	228	-54	$2,325	$26,277,726	13	Fox Searchlight
3	Horrible Bosses 2	$350,000	-62%	375	-327	$933	$53,780,764	7	Warner Bros. / New Line
4	Gone Girl	$240,000	-39%	253	-26	$949	$167,112,192	15	Fox

Platform (1 — 99)

#	Title	weekend		Locations		Avg.	Total	Wks.	Dist.
1	American Sniper	$560,000	-17%	4	0	$140,000	$3,155,151	3	Warner Bros.

 

[TalismanRing]

This might really help Selma's numbers this week, if t works out we might see some very strong weekdays

 

http://deadline.com/2015/01/taken-3-liam-neeson-box-office-selma-inherent-vice-1201343948/

 

While the faith-based and Oprah Winfrey devotees have flocked to Selma, the film has generated a great deal of support in urban markets.  Theaters around the nation are reporting a number of group screenings with entire classes, followed by discussions and recommended reading lists. A number of African-American businesses are teaming with Paramount to create funds in major cities, New York in particular, where students can see Selma for free.  Students in these cities provide a student ID or a report card for free admittance at participating theaters. The program begins on Monday, Jan. 12 at 7pm and runs through Martin Luther King, Jr. Day, Monday, January 19. In New York, 27,000 students received free admission to Selma thanks to 27 African-American business leaders’ contributions.  Major institutions including the New York City Department of Education, KIPP Schools, New York City Housing Authority, Schomburg Museum, Eagle Academy, Harlem Children Zone, Harlem Village Academy, Abyssinian Baptist Church, The Boys and Girls Club, the New York Public Library, and local radio stations are reaching out to students and informing them about the opportunity to see Selma.

[kitik]

Friday, January 9, 2015
 

	Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 312002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015	>Yr >Mo > Wk >>Next Day
TD YD Title (Click to View) Studio Daily Gross % +/- YD / LW Theaters / Avg Gross To-Date Day 1 - Taken 3 Fox $14,700,000 - - 3,594 $4,090 $14,700,000 1 2 - Selma Par. $3,800,000 +6,854% +1,577% 2,179 $1,744 $6,087,000 16 3 2 Unbroken Uni. $2,600,000 +112% -65% 3,301 $788 $95,834,000 16 4 1 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies WB $2,465,000 +85% -70% 3,402 $725 $229,547,000 24 5 3 Into the Woods BV $2,455,000 +141% -67% 2,833 $867 $97,977,000 16 6 4 The Imitation Game Wein. $2,146,000 +219% -27% 1,566 $1,370 $35,362,000 43 7 5 Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb Fox $1,615,000 +162% -73% 3,371 $479 $94,438,000 22 8 8 The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death Rela. $1,510,000 +237% -81% 2,602 $580 $19,019,000 8 9 9 The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1 LGF $1,050,000 +146% -65% 2,063 $509 $326,925,000 50 10 10 Annie (2014) Sony $1,000,000 +146% -78% 2,856 $350 $75,518,000 22 - - Inherent Vice WB $960,000 +3,294% +1,016% 645 $1,488 $2,539,000 29 - 7 Wild (2014) FoxS $811,000 +80% -52% 1,286 $631 $28,450,000 38 - - American Sniper WB $156,000 +88% -33% 4 $39,000 $2,751,000 16

 

[John Marston]

And of course Hobbit has one of the weakest jumps and holds in the top 10

[kayumanggi]

$3.8M FRI for #Selma 1st day of natl play, $11-12M wknd likely, $5k+ avg. Decent, not stellar, but glowing A+ CinemaScore.

— Gitesh Pandya (@giteshpandya)

January 10, 2015

[kayumanggi]

TD	YD	Title (Click to View)	Studio	Daily Gross	% +/- YD / LW		Theaters / Avg		Gross To-Date	Day
1	-	Taken 3	Fox	$14,700,000	-	-	3,594	$4,090	$14,700,000	1
2	-	Selma	Par.	$3,800,000	+6,854%	+1,577%	2,179	$1,744	$6,087,000	16
3	2	Unbroken	Uni.	$2,600,000	+112%	-65%	3,301	$788	$95,834,000	16
4	1	The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies	WB	$2,465,000	+85%	-70%	3,402	$725	$229,547,000	24
5	3	Into the Woods	BV	$2,455,000	+141%	-67%	2,833	$867	$97,977,000	16
6	4	The Imitation Game	Wein.	$2,146,000	+219%	-27%	1,566	$1,370	$35,362,000	43
7	5	Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb	Fox	$1,615,000	+162%	-73%	3,371	$479	$94,438,000	22
8	8	The Woman in Black 2: Angel of Death	Rela.	$1,510,000	+237%	-81%	2,602	$580	$19,019,000	8
9	9	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 1	LGF	$1,050,000	+146%	-65%	2,063	$509	$326,925,000	50
10	10	Annie (2014)	Sony	$1,000,000	+146%	-78%	2,856	$350	$75,518,000	22
-	-	Inherent Vice	WB	$960,000	+3,294%	+1,016%	645	$1,488	$2,539,000	29
-	7	Wild (2014)	FoxS	$811,000	+80%	-52%	1,286	$631	$28,450,000	38
-	-	American Sniper	WB	$156,000	+88%	-33%	4	$39,000	$2,751,000	16

 

[grim22]

BOTFA vs DOS looks like it may end up being much closer than expected. Five armies trails by 9M but will have a weekend around 2-2.5M bigger than DOS. Losing IMAX next week won't help.

[kayumanggi]

Year	Gross*	2015 % change	2014 % change	2013 % change	2012 % change	2011 % change	2010 % change
2015	$287.9	-	+4.4%	-0.3%	-1.1%	+2.5%	-28.8%
2014	$275.8	-4.2%	-	-4.5%	-5.2%	-1.8%	-31.8%
2013	$288.7	+0.3%	+4.7%	-	-0.8%	+2.8%	-28.6%
2012	$291.0	+1.1%	+5.5%	+0.8%	-	+3.6%	-28.0%
2011	$280.9	-2.4%	+1.9%	-2.7%	-3.5%	-	-30.5%
2010	$404.2	+40.4%	+46.6%	+40.0%	+38.9%	+43.9%	-

 

[TalismanRing]

And of course Hobbit has one of the weakest jumps and holds in the top 10

 

It's the holdover that faced the most new direct competition Taken 3, so not surprising at all

 

Still with this drop it looks now to be on pace to finish near or even under Smaug which on a comparable w/e (but it's 5th not 4th)

 

Jan 10–12 6 $8,022,353 -48.8% 3,075 -655 $2,609 $242,226,788 5

 

vs

 

3 The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies $9,500,000 -56% 3,402 -473 $2,792 $236,582,487 4 Warner Bros. / New Line

 

 

So if that projection hold it will be $ 5.64m behind but doing 19% better over the weekend.  Smaug did $16.14m after this weekend. 19% more than that would be $19.2m for a $255.8m total for BOTFA

 

BOFTA though should benefit from having more theaters at this point since it came out a week later.  Smaug was already down to 3,000 theaters and a huge 1,200+ drop for MLK w/e.

Edited January 10, 2015 by TalismanRing