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LexJoker

Weekend Numbers Jan 23-25 pg 46(AS 64 mill, Mom's cookies 15)

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Do you think it will have anything to do with Depp? I think the reason Alice did so well was the 3D Post-Avatar craze. Enough people saw the film that there will be a high level of awareness when this releases.

No, I think that movie will have everything against it. Not just Depp fall in popularity since it was released. 

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Umm... with $70-78 million 2nd weekend (depends on Friday #), how does it miss $350 million. Your projections are way off. This thing is getting a 4.5x minimum.

 

Just because you wanted Selma to do well doesn't mean it's nuts to state the obvious - Sniper is heading for $400 million+ DOM. 

How does it miss 350 million?  Big drop on Super Bowl Sunday.  Arctic air is also moving over the Midwest 7 days from now (next Saturday and Sunday) with highs around 10 degrees.  Highly populated areas of the country will be hit with snow over the next month.  I am referring to places like the East Coast cities, Chicago, Detroit, state of Ohio.  It is still a massive hit.  Just keep your expectations in the 300-350 area.

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How does it miss 350 million?  Big drop on Super Bowl Sunday.  Arctic air is also moving over the Midwest 7 days from now (next Saturday and Sunday) with highs around 10 degrees.  Highly populated areas of the country will be hit with snow over the next month.  I am referring to places like the East Coast cities, Chicago, Detroit, state of Ohio.  It is still a massive hit.  Just keep your expectations in the 300-350 area.

Ssh. Ssssssssshhhhhhhhhhhhh.

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How does it miss 350 million?  Big drop on Super Bowl Sunday.  Arctic air is also moving over the Midwest 7 days from now (next Saturday and Sunday) with highs around 10 degrees.  Highly populated areas of the country will be hit with snow over the next month.  I am referring to places like the East Coast cities, Chicago, Detroit, state of Ohio.  It is still a massive hit.  Just keep your expectations in the 300-350 area.

 

I'll take my chances

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How does it miss 350 million? Big drop on Super Bowl Sunday. Arctic air is also moving over the Midwest 7 days from now (next Saturday and Sunday) with highs around 10 degrees. Highly populated areas of the country will be hit with snow over the next month. I am referring to places like the East Coast cities, Chicago, Detroit, state of Ohio. It is still a massive hit. Just keep your expectations in the 300-350 area.

It's going to be around $190m-$200m coming off a $65m-$70m weekend. Are you implying it will only get a 2-3x multiplier?

$300m will require some ridiculously bad legs.

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The reason I think AS could make a run at Titanic is that I've always said that when the next box office giant comes, we won't see it coming.  Sure Avatar and Avengers were going to be big but no one really thought they would be as big as they are.  It was obviously the same with Titanic.  Now with AS, if this 20 mill Friday is true, even if it goes up by only 50% S aturday, it'll come close to 70 mill for the second weekend.  How many films have a 70 million second weekend?  Seven films.  But the big difference this time is that AS is behaving irrationally.  If it hit's 70 mill, that's about a 22% drop coming off an inflated holiday weekend.  There's no 3D and the movie has been on line for about two weeks already.  It's going to be close to 200 mill by the end of the weekend.  So what's to stop it from taking a run at some truly giant numbers domestically?  

 

I think this could end up being similar to Forrest Gump in terms of adjust dollars.  Gump made 650 adjusted.  Gump's drops were truly ridiculous and Sniper won't come close to dropping 1% and 9% and 17% in it's first three weeks, but to drop by less than 25% in this day and age after it opened to 90 mill, is pretty special.  

 

I think in years to come, just like with Titanic, people will say one of the reasons this did so well is because of no competition.  But just like Titanic, this film is making the other films become insignificant.  

 

I'm not one to jump the gun when it comes to lofty projections.  I always use the Pulp Fiction phrase let's not start suckin each other's just yet.  Well, I think right now, I'm ready to start sucking Wolf, Jules and Vincent off all at the same time.  Sniper looks poised to reach some really lofty numbers.  300 is  foregone conclusion and 400 is done as well......if it really does hit 70 this weekend then that means it will probably fall softly next weekend even with Super Bowl and then with Valentine's Day/ Friday the 13th coming up, it will be a big player that weekend as well, even with 50SOG coming out.  

 

I'm not saying beating Titanic is a definite but if the 70 number is true, it has a real shot.  

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How does it miss 350 million?  Big drop on Super Bowl Sunday.  Arctic air is also moving over the Midwest 7 days from now (next Saturday and Sunday) with highs around 10 degrees.  Highly populated areas of the country will be hit with snow over the next month.  I am referring to places like the East Coast cities, Chicago, Detroit, state of Ohio.  It is still a massive hit.  Just keep your expectations in the 300-350 area.

 

Sorry but 350 is done.  

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