Spider-Man: Into The Spider-verse | 12.14.2018 | Sony | Phil Lord and Chris Miller

[DMan7]

5 minutes ago, dudalb said:

That is why I think Spidey  is being wildly over predicted. I am very skeptical that the GA will go to any animated Comic Book Hero film in large numbers. Yeah,the fanbase will show up  but how many casuals? I

(Yes, I know people will scream "Incredibles!" but IMHO it's apples and organges.

But I think the Alita will probably sneak in at #3 over Bumblebee. I think the Bayformer universe is simply out of gas with the GA.

Big Hero Six - 222M DOM

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=disney2014.htm

 

We're not predicting 300M+ for Spiderverse we're predicting a reasonable 200M+ DOM.

[Pure Spirit]

December release WW totals:

1. Alita ($700M-1.05B )

2. Mary Poppins ($600-800M)

3. Aquaman ($500-700M)

4. Mortal Engines ($400-600M)

5. Bumblebee ($400-550M)

5. Spiderverse ($300-500M)

 

I think Spiderverse will break out domestically but I'm skeptical on its international gross. Alita is going to be the sleeper smash hit.

 

EDIT: I see by the reactions I have a lot of support for my predictions. Thank you!

Edited June 7, 2018 by Pure Spirit

[dudalb]

I knew the Cameron fanboys would show up.....

[JB33]

3 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

December release WW totals:

1. Alita ($1.05B )

2. Mary Poppins ($800M)

3. Aquaman ($700M)

4. Mortal Engines ($600M)

5. Bumblebee ($500)

5. Spiderverse ($400M)

 

I think Spiderverse will break out domestically but I'm skeptical on its international gross. Alita is going to be the sleeper smash hit.

Thanks for this! 

God, I can't wait for December. @IronJimbo @JamesCameronScholar are you guys in agreement with @Pure Spirit on the Alita prediction? Just want to get all you guys on the record.

[dudalb]

17 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

Big Hero Six - 222M DOM

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=disney2014.htm

 

We're not predicting 300M+ for Spiderverse we're predicting a reasonable 200M+ DOM.

Same situation as with Incredibles. Not a CBM movie like Spideyverse is.

[dudalb]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Thanks for this! 

God, I can't wait for December. @IronJimbo @JamesCameronScholar are you guys in agreement with @Pure Spirit on the Alita prediction? Just want to get all you guys on the record.

Jimbo and Scholar think that Pure Spirit is probably underpredicting ALita.

What is really funny is if Alita underperforms, they will blame Rodriguez. If it is a hit, they will give all the credit to Cameron and forget that Rodriguez even exists.

Edited June 6, 2018 by dudalb

[Mekanos]

If it's as good as the trailer, 75M opening for 250M finish, 550-600M WW. 

 

I definitely seeing this being the biggest holiday winner after Poppins, and Bumblebee is gaining a lot of positive momentum from its teaser so it could be third in line. Aquaman might suffer for waiting so long to debut a trailer. 

 

Alita and Mortal Engines are gonna be whatever they're gonna be. Winter season is very friendly to multiple movies playing side-by-side. 

Edited June 6, 2018 by Mekanos

[IronJimbo]

23 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Thanks for this! 

God, I can't wait for December. @IronJimbo @JamesCameronScholar are you guys in agreement with @Pure Spirit on the Alita prediction? Just want to get all you guys on the record.

Alita will win the great Christmas brawl of 2018.

 

Avatar 2 will make $3b (floor btw)

 

 

[Barnack]

54 minutes ago, Pure Spirit said:

I think Spiderverse will break out domestically but I'm skeptical on its international gross. Alita is going to be the sleeper smash hit.

Considering Lord&Miller track record that is prudent:

 

Worldwide (Unadjusted)

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Worldwide	Domestic / %		Overseas / %		Year
1	The LEGO Movie	WB	$469.2	$257.8	54.9%	$211.4	45.1%	2014
2	22 Jump Street	Sony	$331.3	$191.7	57.9%	$139.6	42.1%	2014
3	Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs	Sony	$243.0	$124.9	51.4%	$118.1	48.6%	2009
4	21 Jump Street	Sony	$201.6	$138.4	68.7%	$63.1	31.3%	2012

 

And Lego Batman:

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$175,750,384	56.3%
+ Foreign:	$136,200,000	43.7%
= Worldwide:	$311,950,384

 

But SpiderMan is quite something oversea

[DMan7]

43 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Alita will win the great Christmas brawl of 2018.

 

Avatar 2 will make $.3b (floor btw)

 

 

Agreed about your Avatar 2 prediction. 

[IronJimbo]

Just now, DMan7 said:

Agreed about your Avatar 2 prediction. 

Welcome to the 3 billie club friend,

 

 

[DMan7]

49 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Welcome to the 3 billie club friend,

 

 

[Deja23]

Finally got to watch the trailer. It looks so good! I liked the teaser, but the trailer is much better. Looking forward to this. Glad I’m now a Spider-Man fan. 

[Arlborn]

All 6 major December releases look like a great time at the movie theater to me!

 

Will I be able to watch 6 movies during Christmas time though? And if I won't be able to, which one(s) doesn't make the cut? That's the real question.

 

Edited June 7, 2018 by Arlborn

[YLF]

What do you guys think the budget is on this movie? any guess for domestic/WW gross?

[Barnack]

50 minutes ago, YLF said:

What do you guys think the budget is on this movie? any guess for domestic/WW gross?

Animation and the people involved are costly so it was probably not an issue, but at least in the old before HomeComing happened Marvel deal, Sony had to spend a minimum on a SpiderMan movie.

 

PICTURE REQUIREMENTS. Each Picture must have an all-in budget of not less than $75M, qualify for a PG-13 rating and have an initial domestic theatrical release of no less than 2000 screens. That point was pointed out when they started looking if they have the rights to do an animated Spider Man movie vis a vis Marvel contract.

 

Couple of Sony pic animation net budget for a reference

 

Cloudy 1 net budget was 116.84m

Cloudy 2 net budget was  80m

 

Smurfs 2: 114m

Smurf: 124m

Hotel Trans: 104m

Pirates! band of misfit: 59m

Arthur Christmas: 102.5m

Surf up: 97m

Open Season: 99m

 

Probably in that 105 to 125m net range I would imagine, seem to be their zone.

[YLF]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

Animation and the people involved are costly so it was probably not an issue, but at least in the old before HomeComing happened Marvel deal, Sony had to spend a minimum on a SpiderMan movie.

 

PICTURE REQUIREMENTS. Each Picture must have an all-in budget of not less than $75M, qualify for a PG-13 rating and have an initial domestic theatrical release of no less than 2000 screens. That point was pointed out when they started looking if they have the rights to do an animated Spider Man movie vis a vis Marvel contract.

 

Couple of Sony pic animation net budget for a reference

 

Cloudy 1 net budget was 116.84m

Cloudy 2 net budget was  80m

 

Smurfs 2: 114m

Smurf: 124m

Hotel Trans: 104m

Pirates! band of misfit: 59m

Arthur Christmas: 102.5m

Surf up: 97m

Open Season: 99m

 

Probably in that 105 to 125m net range I would imagine, seem to be their zone.

I heard that marvel is heavily involved in the film, too. They put it up on their verified marvel entertainment page and they didnt put the venom trailer on there.  So that might indicate that too.

 

They also said no black spiderman in their contract with sony too lol so the contract has obviously been amended...

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, YLF said:

They also said no black spiderman in their contract with sony too lol so the contract has obviously been amended...

That was for Peter Packer I think:

 

https://wikileaks.org/sony/docs/07/junderwood/1 Corp Dev/Spiderman/Executive Summary of All Deal Points/Executive Summary (Creative).pdf

 

Those were the rules for the non Peter Paker spider man:

Mandatory Spider-Man Character Traits. Spider-Man (whether Peter Parker or an alternative Spider-Man character) must always strictly conform to the following “Mandatory Character Traits”:

 Male

 Does not torture*

 Does not kill unless in defense of self or others*

 Does not use foul language beyond PG-13

 Does not smoke tobacco*

 Does not sell/distribute illegal drugs*

 Does not abuse alcohol*

 Does not have sex before the age of 16, does not have sex with anyone below the age of 16

 Not a homosexual (unless Marvel has portrayed that alter ego as a homosexual)

 

Peter Paker added heterosexual to not an homosexual:

 

 His full name is Peter Benjamin Parker.

 He is Caucasian and heterosexual.

 His parents become absent from his life during his childhood.

 From the time his parents become absent he is raised by Aunt May and Uncle Ben in New York City

 He gains his powers while attending either middle school or college.

 He gains his powers from being bitten by a spider

 He designs his first red and blue costume.

 The black costume is a symbiote and is not designed by him

 He is raised in a middle class household in Queens, New York

 He attends or attended high school in Queens,

[KeepItU25071906]

rewatching helps this trailer looks better

[The Panda]

7 hours ago, iHeartJames said:

I think people mistake the fact that Black Panther had alot of black culture that made it break out more than just being an all black cast from the first trailer we saw the african inspired clothing, the lip plates, African markings on the body from the skin to the designs.

 

Its the same reason why I chuckle whenever people really think a cyborg film is gonna breakout like Black Panther but I do think this could somewhat breakout. I'm actually surprised Sony hasn't announced a Miles movie yet for their universe and just leave Spidey to the MCU movies

Yeah, there’s a reason BP struck a chord and stuff like Blade, War Machine, etc. have not.  It’s not just having a black protagonist but a film that encapsulates the culture and provides a role model within it.