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WrathOfHan

Weekend Estimates: Ant-Man 58.04 | Minions 50.24 | Trainwreck 30.24 | IO 11.66 | JW 11.36 (Page 88)

By WrathOfHan, in Numbers and Data

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Accursed Arachnid!™ Summer Tentpole

Accursed Arachnid!™

Posted
Posted

I honestly think this could have ended in the 40's, but that's just my opinion.  This is a much, much lesser known property to the general public and Rudd is in no way a draw.

 

 Who on the much maligned FF was a "draw" back in 2005? Draws like Nic Cage and Ben Affleck couldn't pull 50+m back then in not widely known SH films, but FF did. FF adjusts to over 70m opening without 3D. It made 155m against 100m budget, 155m. The apparent "ceiling" for this 130m 3D film? The 40's would have been closer to half FF admissions level.

 Ant-Man has been EVERYWHERE of late. I can't get away from it. Marketing cost must be high. 60ish, would merely be just OK no matter how you or Marvel want to spin it. It will make much more than FF worldwide I'm sure, but we're talking simply DOM performance here. I feel 70m was and still is the line here. Hard to believe Marvel/Disney would spend 130m with 60/150 as the projected "ceiling". You and others may have thought this and you may well be right, but they had to be hoping for more.

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted

Thor and Cap 1 didn't have big drops from Friday to Saturday, but Cap 1 had a bigger Sat drop and lower Sun drop.

 

With 7pm previews for Ant-Man instead of genuine midnight ones for Cap1 and Thor, it's Fri to Sat drop will be more. Also Marvel fan-base has become stronger and the brand is so reliable that front-loading increases each year.

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Accursed Arachnid!™ Summer Tentpole

Accursed Arachnid!™

Posted
Posted (edited)

i'm not in the mood for naysayers negativity ! calling it a night , see you guys over the weekend !

 

 

Sorry, speaking solely for myself, I'm not meaning to be negative...like I said, I'm sure Ant-Man will make money when OS receipts are accounted for and who knows, DHD may be off. I hope they are. But a reported low to mid 20s OD would be disappointing for me, and I'm not going to pretend it's not.

 

EDIT: Hopefully at this early time, DHD is making the same mistake as Keith Simanton and simply projecting off of midnights to get their "exclusive" Friday number.

Edited by JurAssic Arachnid!™
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Jonwo Global Phenomenon

Jonwo

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I'm in the UK and I've only ever heard of Trainwreck on this site.

Edit: watched the trailer, this will do VERY well on HV over here. Amy Shmurda (whatever her name) will probably be bigger over here by then anyway.

It opens in August in the UK but it's against Pixels and The Man from UNCLE so I'm not expecting huge numbers but I think it can do decently.

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RyneOh1040 Box Office Gold

RyneOh1040

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Posted (edited)

 Who on the much maligned FF was a "draw" back in 2005? Draws like Nic Cage and Ben Affleck couldn't pull 50+m back then in not widely known SH films, but FF did. FF adjusts to over 70m opening without 3D. It made 155m against 100m budget, 155m. The apparent "ceiling" for this 130m 3D film? The 40's would have been closer to half FF admissions level.

 Ant-Man has been EVERYWHERE of late. I can't get away from it. Marketing cost must be high. 60ish, would merely be just OK no matter how you or Marvel want to spin it. It will make much more than FF worldwide I'm sure, but we're talking simply DOM performance here. I feel 70m was and still is the line here. Hard to believe Marvel/Disney would spend 130m with 60/150 as the projected "ceiling". You and others may have thought this and you may well be right, but they had to be hoping for more.

If you think the FF isn't more well known than Ant-Man then we will just have to agree to disagree.  I wasn't comparing the star power of Paul Rudd to anyone in FF.  I was comparing it to the likes of Robert Downey Jr., Chris Evans, and Chris Pratt.  And just because something is marketed well doesn't really mean shit in the end.  The Lone Ranger and John Carter were marketed well (in terms of having it in everyone's face).  Doesn't change the fact whether someone was previously familiar with the subject or not.  I think it's a more than unfair to compare the likes of X-Men, Hulk and even Thor to this.  Just because Marvel has an amazing track record certainly doesn't mean they always will and when people keep expecting those lofty expectations for the lesser known properties they're bound to be disappointed.

Edited by RyneOh1040
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Gopher Summer Tentpole

Gopher

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Posted (edited)

Hmmm

Ant-Man 24-25

Minions 15-16

Trainwreck I'm shakiest on, gonna say 10 for now

IO 3.7 (please remember it's early)

JW 3.5 (please remember it's early)

Edited by Gopher
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Krissykins Global Phenomenon

Krissykins

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Posted (edited)

Hmmm

Ant-Man 24-25

Minions 15-16

Trainwreck I'm shakiest on, gonna say 10 for now

IO 3.7 (please remember it's early)

JW 3.5 (please remember it's early)

Knew Trainwreck wasn't opening over $30m.

Eeeeeek lol

Edited by Krissykins
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grim22 Global Phenomenon

grim22

Posted
Posted

Hmmm

Ant-Man 24-25

Minions 15-16

Trainwreck I'm shakiest on, gonna say 10 for now

IO 3.7 (please remember it's early)

JW 3.5 (please remember it's early)

Matching Deadlines predictions so far. Hopefully Trainwreck nudges up to 12-13, would lock 30M.

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