Weekend Thread | Bourne 60M, Trek 24M, Bad Moms 23.4M, Pets 18.2M

[K1stpierre]

2 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I say it playing out like The Other Woman tbh. $80M+ is still on the table.

 

I really hope so, it definitely deserves it. I'd be happy with 60Mish, but if it went higher I'd be pleased.

[#ED]

Not bad for Bourne.

[TalismanRing]

28 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Didn't realize this until someone pointed this out to me earlier on a different forum. There has literally been ONE big live-action movie this summer, and that one somehow still managed to open below predictions and didn't have the big legs that the reviews indicated. The live action offerings have just not broken out this summer. The top live action summer movies are

 

2

Captain America: Civil War

BV

$406,939,223

4,226

$179,139,142

4,226

5/6

-

8

X-Men: Apocalypse

Fox

$155,442,489

4,153

$65,769,562

4,150

5/27

7/28

10	Central Intelligence	WB (NL)	$125,303,013	3,508	$35,535,250	3,508	6/17	-
11	The Legend of Tarzan	WB	$121,856,210	3,591	$38,527,856	3,561	7/1	-
13	Ghostbusters (2016)	Sony	$106,171,471	3,963	$46,018,755	3,963	7/15	-
14	Star Trek Beyond	Par.	$105,720,378	3,928	$59,253,211	3,928	7/22	-
15	Independence Day: Resurgence	Fox	$101,950,640	4,130	$41,039,944	4,130	6/24	-
16	The Conjuring 2	WB (NL)	$101,947,824	3,356	$40,406,314	3,343	6/10

 

8 movies above 100M (with Bourne joining them soon). And most likely nothing above 156M. Beyond looks like it will finish at around what Apocalypse finished at, and Bourne might go slightly bigger but in the same general range. There is literally no major live action breakout movie this summer.

 

I consider $400m+ and $1.15m+ WW a "breakout".   If it opened below expectations it was only those from the week or so leading into it's opening (and that by around 5%) and not expectations by most at the start of the year of even a month before opening. 

 

Even last year with several WW behemoths we only had three movies make more than $400m domestic.   Outside of JW and AOU no other live action film from the summer passed $200m.  The  closest was MI5 at $195.  The biggest live action opening outside of the big two was SOC at $60m.

 

I remember in 2014 when there were complaints that no film made it past $300m until GOTG broke out and up until then there had been 10 films to make it into the $200m.  Not one film that year hit $400m.  And only AS which did most of it's money in 2015 even hit $350m.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 1, 2016 by TalismanRing

[baumer]

With the exception of Deadpool, I wouldn't call any super hero movie a breakout, espcially not one that has 90% of the avengers in it.

[MrPink]

I think Civil War has more or less done exactly what was expected from it.

 

Of course, depending on when you're basing your expectations, that's up for debate. Exchange rates certainly didn't help either it seems.

 

[EmpireCity]

Bourne is going to fall about $400k short of $60m

[Arlborn]

1 minute ago, nilephelan said:

Bourne is going to fall about $400k short of $60m

[Krissykins]

I knew the smallest Sunday drop in the top 10 was a bit iffy.

 

(aside from Dory)

[Ethan Hunt]

3 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

Bourne is going to fall about $400k short of $60m

We failed @CJohn

[baumer]

14 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

Bourne is going to fall about $400k short of $60m

 

So it fell on Sunday?

[Maxmoser3]

50 minutes ago, K1stpierre said:

I was hoping for a higher number for Bad Moms, that movie was well worth more of a 30M+ OW than just 23M. I hope legs are good for it.

Legs and dailies should be fine. I don't know what affected this weekend. Overall the film is a hit with its 20 million budget and it could do 5x its production budget worldwide. I liked Bad Moms, I thought it was pretty good. 

[WrathOfHan]

21 minutes ago, nilephelan said:

Bourne is going to fall about $400k short of $60m

Uni was being ballsy by having it exactly at 60M.

[Maxmoser3]

August 2016 predictions: Suicide Squad:$145-$150 million OW/$340 million, Sausage Party:$30 million OW/$100 million, Pete's Dragon:$26 million/$80 million, War Dogs:$18 million/$50 million, Ben-Hur:$16 million/$40 million, Don't Breathe:$14 million/$40 million. Jason Bourne as a holdover does $100 million in August, and Bad Moms does $50 million in August. 

[Maxmoser3]

The 3rd quarter of 2016 has overall made so far solid results. August should be another $1 billion. September at about $715 million. 

[Ethan Hunt]

5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Uni was being ballsy by having it exactly at 60M.

Still better than Star Trek

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, Ethan Hunt said:

Still better than Star Trek

[MCKillswitch123]

Civil War has definitely done less than expected... taking into account the absurd hype that was created around it a month before release, in between the Spider-Man trailer + really good reviews + BVS underdelievering, that opened up the possibilities in massive scale. And with all of that, it's safe to say that, regardless of frontloadedness, we all were justified in believing the movie would have a far better multiplier than a Goddamn 2.2x. If we go by our predictions before that final month, before all of us saw BVS not coming up to expection, I'd say that CW did right on par w/general expections. A little less maybe, since I (and I guess a lot, if not most people) expected it to outperform Iron Man 3, but still.

 

But yeah, this Summer has absolutely failed to capture anyone's imagination.... beyond the animation genre, which has been on fire. Mock Ice Age 5, sure, but between Dory, Pets and Birds (which did okay, after all, let's be honest), 2016's Summer has been all about the animated flicks. Adding Zootopia (and I guess The Jungle Book if you consider that as well) only makes the statement that 2016 in general is the year of animation further more truth.

[trifle]

7 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

Still better than Star Trek

 

I want them both to do well.  I want more movies like them.

[Ethan Hunt]

4 minutes ago, trifle said:

 

I want them both to do well.  I want more movies like them.

I'm just teasing Han. I wish the best for Star Trek (and obviously I'll defend Jason Bourne like its my baby)

[filmlover]

14 minutes ago, Maxmoser3 said:

August 2016 predictions: Suicide Squad:$145-$150 million OW/$340 million, Sausage Party:$30 million OW/$100 million, Pete's Dragon:$26 million/$80 million, War Dogs:$18 million/$50 million, Ben-Hur:$16 million/$40 million, Don't Breathe:$14 million/$40 million. Jason Bourne as a holdover does $100 million in August, and Bad Moms does $50 million in August. 

I wouldn't be surprised if Don't Breathe makes a similar total to Evil Dead '13 ($54M). The trailers/premise is certainly intriguing, and the reviews are looking to be really strong for the genre (it's at 83% on RT with 12 reviews so far).