GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY II | 473.9 M overseas ● 863.8 M worldwide

[Napoleon]

It seems all Marvel movies have been performing way below everyone's expectations lately. Guardians was supposed to be as popular as The Avengers and now may not even cross $900M worldwide, if alisson's projections are right. Wow!

 

Can't believe the first Avengers will be the peak of the MCU franchise after all.

[Mockingjay Raphael]

23 minutes ago, Napoleon said:

It seems all Marvel movies have been performing way below everyone's expectations lately. Guardians was supposed to be as popular as The Avengers and now may not even cross $900M worldwide, if alisson's projections are right. Wow!

 

Can't believe the first Avengers will be the peak of the MCU franchise after all.

 

I see it ending at $830m ($480m + $350m), but if it ends below projections DOM, it may not even cross $800m at all. Although, I can't see this happening. 

[movieboner]

If it makes $800-900 million then i'm satisfied. This is not an event film, but a highly anticipated summer blockbuster. Event films are Avengers, Star Wars, Jurassic World and Harry Potter.

[Hades]

There goes the MCU best chance for a non Iron man billion dollar film. A lot of people seemed pretty confident a billion was locked.  

[DeeCee]

GOTG had previews the previous Sat/Sun and then a normal Thu-Sun opening weekend in early August in Australia.  By that point the cume was AUD8,872,826.

 

GOTG2 opened 6:30 Monday night and through to Sunday has made AUD15,613,808.

 

 

Edited May 1, 2017 by DeeCee

[Apollo2xx]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

It seems all Marvel movies have been performing way below everyone's expectations lately. Guardians was supposed to be as popular as The Avengers and now may not even cross $900M worldwide, if alisson's projections are right. Wow!

 

Can't believe the first Avengers will be the peak of the MCU franchise after all.

You're right. People need to stop overestimating these superhero movies. 

Civil War had 200 million OW/550m total predictions but ended up doing "only" 179/408, and now there are still people who think Guardians is going to make 1B WW easily or get to 450m DOM.

These movies will have big openings, there's no question, but its legs aren't the best.

[FilmBuff]

Lol, you people. Calling where this movie is going to end up even though it hasn't opened up in 43% of all it's territories. Why don't you all settle down and see how this movie plays out before you continue with these stupid projections.

[John Marston]

2 hours ago, Mockingjay Raphael said:

 

Can you please explain me how the hell this is coming close to $550m OS after opening almost everywhere, and after having an inflated OW in some of these markets? Especially when the only main markets for this movie are: China (tracking at $110m), Japan (irrelevant for this kind of movie), Russia and SK? I would love to read your analysis. 

 

 

Looks ls like you're right looking closer. Maybe 480m

[MattW]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

It seems all Marvel movies have been performing way below everyone's expectations lately. Guardians was supposed to be as popular as The Avengers and now may not even cross $900M worldwide, if alisson's projections are right. Wow!

 

Can't believe the first Avengers will be the peak of the MCU franchise after all.

Ultron had higher admissions than avengers overseas, not sure if it was enough to make up for the domestic shortfall but it was certainly close.  Avengers 3 or 4 could end up the worldwide peak in admissions, and possibly in dollar terms if the next US bagel shows up in time.

[alisson23]

32 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

Lol, you people. Calling where this movie is going to end up even though it hasn't opened up in 43% of all it's territories. Why don't you all settle down and see how this movie plays out before you continue with these stupid projections.

I'm sure many predictions are based on something, not random, like saying $550m is locked after a inflated $100m ow in 58% of all markets...

Edited May 1, 2017 by alisson23

[YM!]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

It seems all Marvel movies have been performing way below everyone's expectations lately. Guardians was supposed to be as popular as The Avengers and now may not even cross $900M worldwide, if alisson's projections are right. Wow!

 

Can't believe the first Avengers will be the peak of the MCU franchise after all.

It's not just Avengers films being overpredicted but ensemble superhero films. BVS had predictions over $1B (some as high as $1.5B+) and finished at $870M. TBH I see Avengers as the peak for all CBMs including DCEU and XCU. The only film possible of breaking $1.5B is AIW.

Edited May 1, 2017 by YourMother

[FilmBuff]

35 minutes ago, alisson23 said:

I'm sure many predictions are based on something, not random, like saying $550m is locked after a inflated $100m ow in 58% of all markets...

 

We'll see about that. We will see...

[Apollo2xx]

50 minutes ago, YourMother said:

It's not just Avengers films being overpredicted but ensemble superhero films. BVS had predictions over $1B (some as high as $1.5B+) and finished at $870M. TBH I see Avengers as the peak for all CBMs including DCEU and XCU. The only film possible of breaking $1.5B is AIW.

I don't think BvS was overpredicted. It would have crossed 1B easily if it wasn't so bad. Predictions were based on trailers, photos etc (which were pretty good).

But you're right on saying that the first Avengers may end up being the highest grossing CBM, because Infinity War could keep casual moviegoers away for being the 19th(!) MCU film.

[Haley Ross]

13 minutes ago, Apollo2xx said:

I don't think BvS was overpredicted. It would have crossed 1B easily if it wasn't so bad.

 

Many people thought it cross a billion easily no matter what just based on the popularity of the characters, not to mention it was the first time ever Batman and Superman were meeting in a live action movie.

[ZattMurdock]

3 hours ago, Hades said:

There goes the MCU best chance for a non Iron man billion dollar film. A lot of people seemed pretty confident a billion was locked.  

Who said it isn't locked? It's out for an insanely great start. It'll become even more apparent by the end of next weekend. 

[fabiopazzo2]

5 hours ago, Napoleon said:

It seems all Marvel movies have been performing way below everyone's expectations lately. Guardians was supposed to be as popular as The Avengers and now may not even cross $900M worldwide, if alisson's projections are right. Wow!

 

Can't believe the first Avengers will be the peak of the MCU franchise after all.

Napoletroll, only you supposed Guardian as popular as Avengers but ok we know you are a fanboy 

[fmpro]

7 hours ago, alisson23 said:

Not if most of them are small markets. Even so, it would need a 3.14 multipler to do a $550M with a $175m OW. Not happening.

 

~270m from current markets (I'm being optimistic)

~110m from China

~40m Japan + SK

~25m Russia

~35m others small markets

~= $480m

Just wait a miracle and it will do $550m OS

 

Argue with Disney and Box Office Mojo instead

 

Next weekend belongs to Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, which got off to a strong start internationally this weekend, bringing in an estimated $101.2 million from ~58% of the overall international market. The film was #1 in all markets in which it opened outside of Portugal, Turkey and Vietnam and all markets topped the opening performance for the original Guardians of the Galaxy. Estimated results include the UK ($15.5M), Australia ($11.6M), Germany ($8.3M), France ($7.9M), Mexico ($7.6M), Brazil ($6.9M), Italy ($4.1M), Indonesia ($3.4M), Spain ($3.3M), Philippines ($3.2M), Thailand ($2.7M), Taiwan ($2.4M), Malaysia ($2.0M) and New Zealand ($2.0M).

[XO21]

 shitting on $900m. Movies don't cross $1B that easily after the drop in exchange rates

 

The Avengers with current ER would have reached $1.3B

 

[a2k]

The previous one did 440 OS. Why is 500+ being doubted here...exchange rates?

The OS OWs so far look strong compared to GOTG1.

[peludo]

On 29/4/2017 at 10:24 AM, peludo said:

Just to point that this Monday, May 1st, will be holiday in several countries (Labor Day). We could see some Sunday bloated figures and of course we will see a bigger Monday than usual. Just for reference if you analyze numbers and try to extrapolate as if this were a normal weekend. It is not.

Remembering this to put into perspective figures... Not usual weekend. If extrapolating, this is a $175m OW everywhere WITH SOME HOLIDAYS, I see hard the 550 number that it is being said. Not impossible but really really difficult. In the same sense I do not think it will fail reaching 440. The problem I see is the sequel condition, to be frontloaded. SH sequels tend to have bad multipliers, and it does not matter if it is well received or not (Civil War an BvS are good examples). Over x3 multipliers seem reserved for original films. Add that reviews do not seem to say it is better than first one (I have not seen it). IMHO, 480-500 seems a likely range.