The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Black Panther

2. Black Panther 3D

3. Black Panther IMAX

4. Peter Rabbit

5. Game Night

[The Panda]

I wonder where Game Night will open at, seems like a walk up based movie, and one that’ll be leggier.

 

I think it could potentially hit 100m if it’s able to open 25m+ Or so.

[WrathOfHan]

Game Night and Annihilation are both on Pulse now at 4 and 5 respectively behind BP's various formats

[Stewart]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4373&p=.htm

 

BoxOfficeMojo expects $120m for Black Panther... holy mother of fuck donkeys, that means a drop almost equal to TFA...

 

[aabattery]

120M seems too high to me but it'd be fun. Doing what it was tracking to open with in it's second weekend and passing Civil War/IM3 in the process would be poetic or something.

[DAJK]

Game Night and Annihilation are pretty neck and neck everywhere I look. Don't know if that means they would both do high teens or overperform, or both are gonna h derperform at 10-12

[TwoMisfits]

So, I've been busy all week, but I wanted to give a feeler for the new movies...based on my locals, I'd expect Game Night to top Annihilation this weekend, although we'll see how it plays out...here's tonight's numbers here...

 

1st theater (Cinemark) 

Annihilation - 15/110, 7/110 = 22/200 (they put this in the wrong theater size)

Game Night - 23/60, 4/60 = 27/120

 

2nd theater (Regal - plays action/supers/sci fi movies better)

Annihilation - 26/50, 6/50 = 32/100

Game Night - 38/65, 3/65 = 41/130

 

 

 

[BXT]

Just now, DAJK said:

Game Night and Annihilation are pretty neck and neck everywhere I look. Don't know if that means they would both do high teens or overperform, or both are gonna h derperform at 10-12

They will probably underperform because of Black Panther over-saturating the market.

[WrathOfHan]

Final preview totals at my theater:

 

Game Night: 33/78

Annihilation: 28/78

Every Day: 8/67

 

Game Night comps:

 

40% of Kingsman (15.6M)

80% of American Made (13.4M)

85% of Hitman's Bodyguard (18.3M)

120% of Daddy's Home 2 (1.8M previews; the weekend's not a good comp)

220% of Downsizing (11M)

470% of Father Figures (15.5M)

 

This is encouraging given how strong the reviews and WOM are/will be. THB might not be a bad comp.

 

Annihilation:

 

6% of Black Panther (12.1M)

8% of Ragnarok (9.8M)

9% of Justice League (8.4M)

30% of Blade Runner (11.5M)

75% of Jigsaw (12.3M)

100% of mother! (7.5M)

185% of The Snowman (6.3M)

 

These are the best comps I have. Double digits is probably solid enough with chances of hitting tracking's high end or going low because of WOM.

 

Every Day:

 

3% of Fifty Shades Freed (1.2M)

9% of Pitch Perfect 3 (1.8M)

18% of Wonder (5M)

115% of Forever My Girl (4.8M)

 

shit idk lol

[titanic2187]

View Index

Next Year > Next Week >>

Rank LW Title Distributor Theater Count Change % Change Est. Screens Change Est. Shows Change Week # > NEW RELEASES 3 - Game Night Warner Bros. 3,488 - - - - - - 1 8 - Annihilation Paramount 2,012 - - - - - - 1 9 - Every Day (2018) Orion Pictures 1,625 - - - - - - 1 48 - The Cured IFC 3 - - - - - - 1 > EXPANDING 15 17 Darkest Hour Focus Features 792 +190 +31.6% - - - - 14 18 25 Call Me by Your Name Sony Classics 675 +343 +103.3% - - - - 14 19 23 Phantom Thread Focus Features 651 +296 +83.4% - - - - 9 20 19 Lady Bird A24 601 +194 +47.7% - - - - 17 40 47 A Fantastic Woman Sony Classics 78 +49 +169.0% - - - - 4 41 72 The Party (2017) Roadside Attractions 30 +27 +900.0% - - - - 2 43 54 Happy End Sony Classics 18 +2 +12.5% - - - - 10 44 71 Nostalgia Bleecker Street 16 +13 +433.3% - - - - 2 46 69 Loveless (2018) Sony Classics 12 +9 +300.0% - - - - 2 > NO CHANGE 1 1 Black Panther Buena Vista 4,020 - - - - - - 2 7 6 Early Man Lionsgate 2,494 - - - - - - 2 47 - Bob Le Flambeur (2017 re-release) Rialto 3 - - - - - - 7 49 - The Crime of Monsieur Lange (2017 re-release) Rialto 1 - - - - - - 13 > DECLINING 2 3 Peter Rabbit Sony / Columbia 3,707 -18 -0.5% - - - - 3 4 2 Fifty Shades Freed Universal 3,265 -503 -13.3% - - - - 3 5 4 The 15:17 to Paris Warner Bros. 2,752 -290 -9.5% - - - - 3 6 5 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony / Columbia 2,519 -281 -10.0% - - - - 10 10 7 The Greatest Showman Fox 1,601 -335 -17.3% - - - - 10 11 10 Samson Pure Flix 1,140 -109 -8.7% - - - - 2 12 8 Maze Runner: The Death Cure Fox 952 -940 -49.7% - - - - 5 13 9 Winchester Lionsgate 852 -627 -42.4% - - - - 4 14 11 The Post Fox 795 -255 -24.3% - - - - 10 16 12 The Shape of Water Fox Searchlight 721 -236 -24.7% - - - - 13 17 14 Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Fox Searchlight 691 -89 -11.4% - - - - 16 21 13 12 Strong Warner Bros. 448 -367 -45.0% - - - - 6 22 18 I, Tonya Neon 423 -79 -15.7% - - - - 12 23 15 Hostiles Entertainment Studios 416 -351 -45.8% - - - - 10 24 16 Den of Thieves STX Entertainment 357 -373 -51.1% - - - - 6 25 24 Star Wars: The Last Jedi Buena Vista 292 -59 -16.8% - - - - 11 26 21 Paddington 2 Warner Bros. 281 -112 -28.5% - - - - 7 27 22 Coco Buena Vista 266 -119 -30.9% - - - - 14 28 20 Forever My Girl Roadside Attractions 218 -183 -45.6% - - - - 6 29 29 Wonder Lionsgate 158 -35 -18.1% - - - - 15 30 26 La Boda de Valentina Pantelion 141 -190 -57.4% - - - - 3 31 35 The Commuter Lionsgate 138 -10 -6.8% - - - - 7 32 36 Justice League Warner Bros. 137 -7 -4.9% - - - - 15 33 32 Pitch Perfect 3 Universal 133 -24 -15.3% - - - - 10 34 34 Thor: Ragnarok Buena Vista 131 -18 -12.1% - - - - 17 35 37 Detective Chinatown 2 Warner Bros. 111 -4 -3.5% - - - - 2 36 31 Insidious: The Last Key Universal 110 -59 -34.9% - - - - 8 37 30 Molly's Game STX Entertainment 104 -66 -38.8% - - - - 9 38 39 Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool Sony Classics 102 -5 -4.7% - - - - 9 39 33 Pad Man Sony / Columbia 95 -57 -37.5% - - - - 3 42 50 The Florida Project A24 21 -2 -8.7% - - - - 21 45 49 The Disaster Artist A24 12 -11 -47.8% - - - - 13

 

Oscar BP is coming back.....

[WrathOfHan]

That Peter Rabbit hold  

[Boxofficerules]

Samson loosing 100 screens? I thought they HAD to keep them for 2 weeks?

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Boxofficerules said:

Samson loosing 100 screens? I thought they HAD to keep them for 2 weeks?

Could be wrong but that is more for studio release (that do really rarely loose theater a week number 2), I imagine Pure Flix cannot impose much conditions to a theater chain on their release.

[MovieMan89]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4373&p=.htm

 

BoxOfficeMojo expects $120m for Black Panther... holy mother of fuck donkeys, that means a drop almost equal to TFA...

 

Yeah, I can't see that happening. Would need a 150%+ Friday bump. 100 is more than a high enough goal with its likely Thursday gross. If it followed Deadpool's holds through the weekend it would end up in the 90's. 

[WrathOfHan]

How tomorrow looks at my theater:

 

Spoiler

Black Panther:

 

10:00: 6/124

10:45 3D: 11/78

11:30: 4/113

12:15 3D: 0/78

12:45 3D: 2/69

1:15: 6/124

2:00 3D: 0/78

2:45: 0/113

3:30: 0/78

4:00 3D: 0/69

4:30: 0/124

5:15 3D: 3/78

6:00: 8/113

6:45 3D: 5/78

7:15 3D: 6/69

7:45: 0/124

8:30 3D: 4/78

9:15: 0/113

10:00 3D: 5/78

11:00: 0/124

 

Game Night:

 

10:00: 6/78

12:30: 5/78

3:00: 4/78

5:30: 0/78

8:00: 3/78

10:30: 0/78

 

Fifty Shades:

 

10:05: 0/78

12:35: 0/78

3:10: 0/78

5:40: 5/78

8:10: 4/78

10:40: 0/78

 

Annihilation:

 

11:00: 6/78

1:45: 3/78

4:30: 0/78

7:15: 0/78

10:00: 0/78

 

Peter Rabbit:

 

11:10: 6/78

1:35: 0/78

4:00: 0/78

6:30: 0/78

9:00: 0/78

 

Black Panther: 60/1,972

Game Night: 18/468

Fifty Shades: 9/468

Annihilation: 9/390

Peter Rabbit: 6/390

Every Day, The 15:17 to Paris, Jumanji, and Early Man have sold nothing.

 

Game Night comps:

 

33% of Kingsman (12.9M)

40% of Daddy's Home 2 (11.9M)

55% of Hitman's Bodyguard (11.8M)

67% of American Made (11.3M)

 

These comps are nowhere near as good as previews, but being a walkup based film will help it greatly. Meanwhile....

 

Annihilation:

 

2% of Black Panther (4M)

3% of Ragnarok (3.7M)

4% of Justice League (3.8M)

20% of Blade Runner (6.6M)

25% of Happy Death Day (6.5M)

30% of Jigsaw (4.9M)

90% of Flatliners (5.9M)

400% of The Snowman (13.6M)

 

YIKES. I don't have a comp for mother! at the same point in time, but it's currently at 80% of its Friday number (6M).

[KeepItU25071906]

Movieickets:

 

Black Panther: 65,9%

Peter Rabbit:   10,3%

50SoG -3 :        3,8%

Game Night:   3,4%

Anninhilation: 2,1%    

 

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, DAJK said:

Game Night and Annihilation are pretty neck and neck everywhere I look. Don't know if that means they would both do high teens or overperform, or both are gonna h derperform at 10-12

Black Panther is oversaturating the market but I’d expect Game Night to have more walk up business

[WrathOfHan]

Red Sparrow's TC is down to 2,900 on BOM

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Red Sparrow's TC is down to 2,900 on BOM

It'll probably eek out 3,000 in the end but yeah, even Fox knows this won't be a big hit.

[MaxAggressor]

https://pro.boxoffice.com/amc-stubs-12-million/

 

LEAWOOD, Kan.–(BUSINESS WIRE)– AMC Theatres® (NYSE:AMC) (“AMC”) today announced that AMC Stubs, the Company’s loyalty program, has continued its brisk growth and now stands at more than 12 million member households, giving AMC incredible insight into the movie-going histories and habits of more than 30 million moviegoers in the United States.

 

With its AMC Stubs loyalty program now at more than 12 million members, and the U.S. average of 2.6 people per household, combined with AMC’s best-in-class website and mobile app, AMC’s ability to track movie-going preferences and turn that data into actionable marketing initiatives is better than it’s ever been before.

 

“The movie industry is more dynamic and complex than ever before, and data providing insights into the movie-going habits and behavior of more than 30 million Americans is of incredible value to both AMC and to our studio partners,” said AMC CEO and President Adam Aron. “Add to that the nearly 7 million members of our loyalty programs in Europe, and it is clear that AMC is building a valuable trove of information that will benefit the industry for years to come. We have every intention of expanding our global base of loyalty customers to 50 million and beyond in the foreseeable future.”

 

In July of 2016, AMC announced a relaunch of AMC Stubs, to increase the appeal of its paid, premier tier and to add a free tier. At that time, the AMC Stubs membership in the United States sat at approximately 2.5 million households, a membership level that had not changed in approximately three years. During the next year and a half, the household membership level has nearly quintupled in size.