The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[charlie Jatinder]

16 hours ago, terrestrial said:

https://www.the-numbers.com/news/237300830-2019-Preview-March

 

Here's a thing. 2018 had holdovers from Xmas doing great and Black Panther ffs. What do we had this year? Almost nothing.

 

Obviously it was going down. I don't understand the cry here. Obviously March will be better and so will be April and summer looks much better than last year.

 

And of course by the end of year we have Frozen 2 and Star Wars.

[charlie Jatinder]

14 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Date	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
Captain Marvel	6,647	8,737	10,157	10,232
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days
Us	148	181	188	215
	25 days	24 days	23 days	22 days

 

Read up on the archives here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/edit#gid=2060184613

 

Captain Marvel from Day 17-Day 8

.452x of Black Panther (109.4M)

 

As I said before, throughout the week, it's gone rom 83M to 92.1M to 100.8M to now 109.4M. Even more impressive is that CM saw a slight increase from Wednesday to Thursday, which Black Panther didn't have. I'll probably look into this later if demand is there, but while its ticket sales are lower than Black Panther, it seems to be having stronger holds and increases from day to day, which helps close the gap and shows there's strong interest here.

Are these figures from some region with higher percentage of Black population? Because for Black Panther was on another level there.

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Are these figures from some region with higher percentage of Black population? Because for Black Panther was on another level there.

These are national results from Fandango.

[Eric Prime]

Movie/Date	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Captain Marvel	6,647	8,737	10,157	10,232	7,477
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days
Us	148	181	188	215	176
	25 days	24 days	23 days	22 days	21 days

 

Read the archives here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/edit#gid=858179647

 

Captain Marvel Day 17-Day 7

.468x of Black Panther (113.2M)

 

So blah blah blah, gap getting smaller and smaller, higher further faster. It'll be fun to see how the weekend and release week unfolds.

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	129	8571	13496	36.49%

 

Total Showings Added Today:      13

Total Seats Added Today:           603

Total Seats Sold Today:              241

 

1.1475x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 6 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

.4861x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 6 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Infinity War's 41 days]

1.2287x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 6 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to DP2's 29 days]

1.1436x as many tickets sold as Solo 6 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Solo's 20 days]

2.0992x as many tickets sold as Jurassic World 2 6 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to JW2's 22 days]

1.8844x as many tickets sold as Fantastic Beasts 2 6 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days]

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio.

 

Also, see spoiler box for different comps with BP, without the new theater in town as well as the stat bloc for Captain Marvel without the extra theatre tracking info.

 

Day T-6 Comp:

 

BP:            184 tickets sold [4 sellouts/73 showings    |    3785/7601 seats left  | 50.20% sold]

IW:            265 tickets sold [5 sellouts/138 showings |   4275/13284 seats left  | 67.82% sold]

DP2:          230 tickets sold [0 sellouts/121 showings |    9903/13467 seats left | 26.46% sold]

Solo:           82 tickets sold [1 sellout/92 showings     |   6317/10146 seats left  | 37.74% sold]

JW2:            95 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   9177/11263 seats left  | 18.52% sold]

FB2:          237 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/98 showings  |  10928/13377 seats left  | 18.31% sold]

CM (adj)*: 198 tickets sold [0 sellouts/129 showings |   7655/12034 seats left   | 36.39% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

====

 

Further BP Comp inside Spoiler Box:

 

Spoiler

Due to having more reserved seating info now than when BP debuted in Sacramento, two more BP-only comp charts:

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and counting

(Exact same theaters/reserved seating info as Black Panther)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	123	7173	11056	35.12%

 

Total Showings Added Today:      13

Total Seats Added Today:           603

Total Seats Sold Today:              170

 

1.0176x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 6 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

 

---

 

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and counting

(Equivalent reserved seating info as Black Panther plus Regal Delta Shores which opened in the interim)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	129	7655	12034	36.39%

 

Total Showings Added Today:      13

Total Seats Added Today:           603

Total Seats Sold Today:              198

 

1.1475x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 6 days before release. [Captain Marvel has 58 days of pre-sales compared to Black Panther's 30 days]

Edited March 2, 2019 by Porthos

[Wonder89]

29 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Date	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday
Captain Marvel	6,647	8,737	10,157	10,232	7,477
	11 days	10 days	9 days	8 days	7 days
Us	148	181	188	215	176
	25 days	24 days	23 days	22 days	21 days

 

Read the archives here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q-1UceCRkSh3BraIvvm0XDJyoUJsyrq8oOufQvjP7Qk/edit#gid=858179647

 

Captain Marvel Day 17-Day 7

.468x of Black Panther (113.2M)

 

So blah blah blah, gap getting smaller and smaller, higher further faster. It'll be fun to see how the weekend and release week unfolds.

In your archives 7 days before release BP sell 11.790 tickets and now CM 7.477, it is right?

Edited March 2, 2019 by Wonder89

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Day T-6 Comp:

 

BP:            184 tickets sold [4 sellouts/73 showings    |    3785/7601 seats left  | 50.20% sold]

IW:            265 tickets sold [5 sellouts/138 showings |   4275/13284 seats left  | 67.82% sold]

DP2:          230 tickets sold [0 sellouts/121 showings |    9903/13467 seats left | 26.46% sold]

Solo:           82 tickets sold [1 sellout/92 showings     |   6317/10146 seats left  | 37.74% sold]

JW2:            95 tickets sold [0 sellouts/111 showings |   9177/11263 seats left  | 18.52% sold]

FB2:          237 tickets sold  [0 sellouts/98 showings  |  10928/13377 seats left  | 18.31% sold]

CM (adj)*: 198 tickets sold [0 sellouts/129 showings |   7655/12034 seats left   | 36.39% sold]

* CM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

Perspective:

 

Captain Marvel has now passed the final total number of tickets sold as Venom at end of tracking at the equivalent theaters tracked.  It might pass the final tracking total of Ant-Man and the Wasp tomorrow (it's 226 tickets behind at the equivalent theaters).  If not tomorrow then certainly early Sunday.

 

This before the massive amount of pre-sales that come in the last couple of days, as well as the day-of ticket sales for Premiere Night.

Edited March 2, 2019 by Porthos

[charlie Jatinder]

Marvel Cinematic Universe and its increasing Previews to the Friday.

 

After every Avengers film, there is growth in the previews component in Friday. The new normal now is around 32-33% IMO for solo films and End Game will most likely be around 38-39%. Said that, I am expecting 31% for Captain Marvel on account of Women's day, if Previews are $19-20mn, we shall have a Friday of $61-65mn Approx.

 

Film	Previews	Friday	% Share
Iron Man	$3.50	$35.23	9.93%
Incredible Hulk	$1.60	$21.47	7.45%
Iron Man 2	$7.50	$51.24	14.64%
Captain America	$4.00	$25.70	15.56%
Thor	$3.25	$25.48	12.75%
The Avengers	$18.70	$80.81	23.14%
Iron Man 3	$15.60	$68.86	22.66%
Thor 2	$7.10	$31.90	22.26%
Captain America: Winter Soldier	$10.30	$36.93	27.89%
GOTG	$11.20	$37.85	29.59%
Avengers: Age of Ultron	$27.60	$84.42	32.69%
Ant-Man	$6.40	$22.65	28.26%
Captain America: Civil War	$25.00	$75.50	33.11%
Doctor Strange	$9.40	$32.59	28.85%
GOTG 2	$17.00	$56.08	30.31%
Spider-Man: Homecoming	$15.40	$50.78	30.33%
Thor: Ragnarok	$14.50	$46.47	31.20%
Black Panther	$25.20	$75.94	33.18%
Avengers: Infinity War	$39.00	$106.33	36.68%
Ant-Man and The Wasp	$11.50	$33.73	34.10%

[Cooper Legion]

WOW, that data is really delineated by the Phases. Much more starkly than I would have guessed.

Edited March 2, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[charlie Jatinder]

Not sure about it but doing some math from some data pieces, the pure Friday presales of IW, BP and S-M:HC were

Spoiler

IW 33M

BP 21M

S-M:HC 9M

1

 

[Eric Prime]

7 hours ago, Wonder89 said:

In your archives 7 days before release BP sell 11.790 tickets and now CM 7.477, it is right?

yes

[fabiopazzo2]

2019-03-02 15:00:24.128885 UTC
1	24.8%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
2	24.3%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
3	6%	Captain Marvel
4	5%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
5	4.5%	Green Book

[Warhorse]

23 hours ago, Taruseth said:

Yeah, November could have been gigantic. I think at least one of them should break out, because there isn't much apart from Frozen.

If it roughly follows what I posted it would probably pull ahead around Christmas🤣

Is Frozen going to be as big as anticipates? Seems to me that the children who were into Frozen that helped it become the hit it was, kind of out grew it and moved to other things. I'm probably wrong, but I'm just going by my own little relatives. Huge Frozen fans when it came out, then about 3 years later, their Frozen decor was taken down and stored and Moana was put in it's  place. 

[ThomasNicole]

29 minutes ago, Warhorse said:

Is Frozen going to be as big as anticipates? Seems to me that the children who were into Frozen that helped it become the hit it was, kind of out grew it and moved to other things. I'm probably wrong, but I'm just going by my own little relatives. Huge Frozen fans when it came out, then about 3 years later, their Frozen decor was taken down and stored and Moana was put in it's  place. 

'Frozen 2' Is Most Watched Animated Trailer of All Time in First 24 Hours

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

'Frozen 2' Is Most Watched Animated Trailer of All Time in First 24 Hours

Bigger than Incredibles 2 - that makes things very interesting.

 

 

[filmlover]

Frozen II is like the Force Awakens of animated sequels. Sky is the limit.

[ThomasNicole]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Bigger than Incredibles 2 - that makes things very interesting.

 

 

Yes, i think Frozen is a strong contender for at least + 500M dom.

[excel1]

Will be the biggest sequel since SHREK 2 

[Nero]

I believe Frozen 2 will gross more than Incredibles 2 or maybe highest grossing animated movie of all time domestic counting for inflation. Worldwide 1.5Billion

[MattW]

17 minutes ago, Nero said:

I believe Frozen 2 will gross more than Incredibles 2 or maybe highest grossing animated movie of all time domestic counting for inflation. Worldwide 1.5Billion

1	10	Snow White	Dis.	$984,270,000	1937^
2	12	101 Dalmatians	Dis.	$902,252,800	1961^
3	19	The Lion King	BV	$804,992,200	1994^
4	23	Fantasia	Dis.	$749,882,600	1941^
5	33	Jungle Book	Dis.	$665,329,600	1967^
6	34	SleepingBeauty	Dis.	$656,264,800	1959^
7	37	Shrek 2	DW	$641,589,900	2004
8	44	Pinocchio	Dis.	$608,652,100	1940^

 

Incredibles 2 is #9 animation adjusted.