The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Premium George]

19 minutes ago, Nero said:

Where is @WrathOfHan ? Did he left. I don't see him much.

 

Sice when are you on BoT? Did you have different name before?

[Nero]

20 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Sice when are you on BoT? Did you have different name before?

I have been visiting BOT since 3 years ago but only yesterday I opened account

[TwoMisfits]

2 hours ago, Nero said:

Where is @WrathOfHan ? Did he left. I don't see him much.

 

He's probably busy...if I remember, he started college away from home this semester...and that's gotta be a huge time suck...

 

I have seen his posts around this year, but just sporadically...it happens when life happens (I tend to have 3-4 weeks I check out in the summer when on vacation or doing all prep work for the learning year:)...

[filmlover]

A bunch of theaters are having a special "Fan Event" for Five Feet Apart on March 13 for some reason.

[WrathOfHan]

4 hours ago, Nero said:

Where is @WrathOfHan ? Did he left. I don't see him much.

 

 

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

He's probably busy...if I remember, he started college away from home this semester...and that's gotta be a huge time suck...

 

I have seen his posts around this year, but just sporadically...it happens when life happens (I tend to have 3-4 weeks I check out in the summer when on vacation or doing all prep work for the learning year:)...

Basically this. I’m still around, but between studying and socializing, it’s leaving very little time for BOT. I’ve missed the Derby for the past two weeks, which is a first for me. Next weekend might get me more involved if the weekend thread isn’t a dumpster fire.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

 

Basically this. I’m still around, but between studying and socializing, it’s leaving very little time for BOT. I’ve missed the Derby for the past two weeks, which is a first for me. Next weekend might get me more involved if the weekend thread isn’t a dumpster fire.

I would hope so even if it were a dumpster fire just because.

 

[Cooper Legion]

7 hours ago, Porthos said:

Black Panther:

16 theaters 

136 showings (2D: 35 | 3D: 101)

Should the 2D and 3D here be reversed? Seems whack.

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

Should the 2D and 3D here be reversed? Seems whack.

James Cameron was responsible for booking the showings in Sacramento, apparently. 

(fixed)

[fabiopazzo2]

2019-03-03 18:00:29.852635 UTC
1	28.3%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	16.6%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	7.5%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
4	5.6%	Captain Marvel
5	5.2%	Green Book

[FlashMaster659]

58 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

2019-03-03 18:00:29.852635 UTC
1	28.3%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
2	16.6%	Tyler Perry's A Madea Family Funeral
3	7.5%	The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part
4	5.6%	Captain Marvel
5	5.2%	Green Book

For comparison, BP was at 7.3% at this time.

[Stewart]

8 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

For comparison, BP was at 7.3% at this time.

Also note that the weekend prior to BP was $30m higher and had Fifty Shades Freed release, which (iirc) is a fairly presale heavy franchise. Much more so than HTTYD at least.

 

So 5.6% for CM is good. 

[dakus]

1 hour ago, feasby007 said:

Also note that the weekend prior to BP was $30m higher and had Fifty Shades Freed release, which (iirc) is a fairly presale heavy franchise. Much more so than HTTYD at least.

 

So 5.6% for CM is good. 

Maybe i’m misinterpreting your comment, but wouldn’t those facts actually be more of a data point against CM? Since it’s saying that BP had a higher % against larger competition?

 

Not saying that the current number isn’t still great, just that it looks relatively worse when compared directly to the BP comp.

 

[JB33]

1 minute ago, dakus said:

Maybe i’m misinterpreting your comment, but wouldn’t those facts actually be more of a data point against CM? Since it’s saying that BP had a higher % against larger competition?

 

Not saying that the current number isn’t still great, just that it looks relatively worse when compared directly to the BP comp.

 

Yeah that's what I was thinking too.

[Stewart]

14 minutes ago, dakus said:

Maybe i’m misinterpreting your comment, but wouldn’t those facts actually be more of a data point against CM? Since it’s saying that BP had a higher % against larger competition?

 

Not saying that the current number isn’t still great, just that it looks relatively worse when compared directly to the BP comp.

 

Yes it does imply that. I realise afterwards that the way I phrased it implies CM was doing better because of it. 

 

However what we have currently lines up with actual tickets sold via Fandango, where CM is behind but catching up. However this makes sense since BP already had reviews and a World Premiere at this point, which Captain Marvel gets tomorrow (I think).

 

So my "CM is doing good." is instead of "CM is doing fantastic.", since at the end of the day its numbers are very good on their own, but not as much so compared to BP.

[ThomasNicole]

27 minutes ago, dakus said:

Maybe i’m misinterpreting your comment, but wouldn’t those facts actually be more of a data point against CM? Since it’s saying that BP had a higher % against larger competition?

 

Not saying that the current number isn’t still great, just that it looks relatively worse when compared directly to the BP comp.

 

You understand right.

 

Bur it’s normal to look relatively worse compared to a movie that opens with $ 242M (4-day). The fact that is kinda close is already great for CM.

[MagnarTheGreat]

7.3% Black Panther; converted to 100%
5.6% Captain Marvel; converted to 76.71% (5.6 ÷ 7.3 * 100)

 

For whatever this is worth, not an exactly an apples to apples comparison (different levels of competition): BP preview $25.2M - 23.29% = $19.3M CM

Edited March 3, 2019 by MagnarTheGreat

[john2000]

i  think the previews could hit 21 but i have it as the high end 

Edited March 3, 2019 by john2000

[JB33]

14 minutes ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

7.3% Black Panther; converted to 100%
5.6% Captain Marvel; converted to 76.71% (5.6 ÷ 7.3 * 100)

 

For whatever this is worth, not an exactly an apples to apples comparison (different levels of competition): BP preview $25.2M - 23.29% = $19.3M CM

It seems like whatever metrics people come up with, it seems to always point pretty close to the $19M I predicted awhile ago for CM previews. Thinking I'm going to stick with that and a $63M total opening day until the end.

[john2000]

2 minutes ago, JB33 said:

It seems like whatever metrics people come up with, it seems to always point pretty close to the $19M I predicted awhile ago for CM previews. Thinking I'm going to stick with that and a $63M total opening day until the end.

i think we are looking at 18-21 range which  suggest an ow of 150-170 

Edited March 3, 2019 by john2000

[Stewart]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

It seems like whatever metrics people come up with, it seems to always point pretty close to the $19M I predicted awhile ago for CM previews. Thinking I'm going to stick with that and a $63M total opening day until the end.

This. 

 

It seems the 3 biggest sources of data we have at the moment (Porthos, Fandango and Movietickets) all point towards a very similar number. The mathematical likelihood that this happens is not exactly high, so I think it is very likely at this point that something close to $19M previews is happening.

 

I would expect this to be more frontloaded than BP though, but that shouldn't affect previews, only what happens afterwards.