The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Lordmandeep]

6 minutes ago, Sam said:

I honestly don’t care much for previews record

 

But I want 90M+ Saturday. 

Yeah IW smashing the Saturday record by 13 million dollars even  in adjusted dollars was nuts lol 

 

Because we all thought 190 or so was the limit a film could do minus previews (JW, TA, SW7 all did that) 

Edited April 22, 2019 by Lordmandeep

[Stewart]

8 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Just observing some amc and cinemark locations near me...spillover into Monday and especially Tuesday is going to be crazy 

Yeah I've been thinking about this... Despite the fact it doesn't have holidays, just how high could the weekdays go if Sunday is 70+? Like, could we seriously be looking at 35m+ for Monday and 30+ for Tuesday? Even then it won't get the records...

 

TFA was just so consistent M-W, obvious drop off Thursday due to xmas eve.

 

If it does say, 300 WE, then 35/33/25/20, that'd be a monstrous 453 first week, over 60m more than TFA. 

 

IW's first week was 50% of total, CW was 55%, using 52% as midground gives 871m total.

 

Overall, we all know the weekend record is breaking, the real question is just how high can it climb during the weekdays?

[john2000]

4 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Yeah I've been thinking about this... Despite the fact it doesn't have holidays, just how high could the weekdays go if Sunday is 70+? Like, could we seriously be looking at 35m+ for Monday and 30+ for Tuesday? Even then it won't get the records...

 

TFA was just so consistent M-W, obvious drop off Thursday due to xmas eve.

 

If it does say, 300 WE, then 35/33/25/20, that'd be a monstrous 453 first week, over 60m more than TFA. 

 

IW's first week was 50% of total, CW was 55%, using 52% as midground gives 871m total.

 

Overall, we all know the weekend record is breaking, the real question is just how high can it climb during the weekdays?

wait  so if eg has 453 first  week the we could have around 570 after the weekend ? wtf  ? question 1) what is the % of this happeng taking into account that wom is at least as good as iw 

Edited April 22, 2019 by john2000

[Darth Lehnsherr]

It's insane how much bigger Endgame is compared to Infinity War in terms of presales. Maybe Ethan Hunt was right with the "no hype" with Infinity War after all.

[john2000]

1 minute ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

It's insane how much bigger Endgame is compared to Infinity War in terms of presales. Maybe Ethan Hunt was right with the "no hype" with Infinity War after all.

[Porthos]

18 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Just observing some amc and cinemark locations near me...spillover into Monday and especially Tuesday is going to be crazy 

I mean, I've been kinda telling this to folks on the down-low for a while now.  Discount Tuesday, especially, I think is gonna be wild.

 

Just from casual observation mind, not via hard data.

 

[HouseOfTheSun]

Disney reports that Endgame will play on an industry record of 4,600 theaters coast to coast in U.S./Canada with screenings kicking off on Thursday at 6PM

 

-via deadline 

[Barnack]

4,600, nothing PG-13 got to 4,500 before I think, that a good step over the previous record.

[Biggestgeekever]

3 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Disney reports that Endgame will play on an industry record of 4,600 theaters coast to coast in U.S./Canada with screenings kicking off on Thursday at 6PM

 

-via deadline 

Incredible! I thought it could beat DM3's record, but not enough to break 4,600. I wonder how many new theaters have opened up in the last year, and how many that typically don't play blockbusters are getting Endgame.

[dakus]

5 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Disney reports that Endgame will play on an industry record of 4,600 theaters coast to coast in U.S./Canada with screenings kicking off on Thursday at 6PM

 

-via deadline 

Yet, for some ridiculous reason my local 10-screen isn’t showing Endgame. I guess it had to make room for their two listed screenings each for After and Missing Link this Thursday.

Edited April 22, 2019 by dakus

[Sam]

5 minutes ago, HouseOfTheSun said:

Disney reports that Endgame will play on an industry record of 4,600 theaters coast to coast in U.S./Canada with screenings kicking off on Thursday at 6PM

 

-via deadline 

Welp. All that freaking out over TC a few days ago really age well now 😝

[Darth Lehnsherr]

1 minute ago, Sam said:

Welp. All that freaking out over anything a few days ago really age well now 😝

Wouldn't be BOT if that wasn't the case

[SchumacherFTW]

I can imagine a forum wide meltdown when EG ONLY opens to 275m

[Barnack]

Just now, Biggestgeekever said:

Incredible! I thought it could beat DM3's record, but not enough to break 4,600. I wonder how many new theaters have opened up in the last year, and how many that typically don't play blockbusters are getting Endgame.

http://www.natoonline.org/data/us-cinema-sites/

 

has of july 2018:

Spoiler

Year	Indoor	Drive-In	Total
2018	5,482	321	5,803
2017	5,398	349	5,747
2016	5,472	349	5,821
2015	5,484	349	5,833
2014	5,463	393	5,856
2013	5,326	393	5,719
2012	5,317	366	5,683
2011	5,331	366	5,697
2010	5,399	374	5,773
2009	5,561	381	5,942
2008	5,403	383	5,786
2007	5,545	383	5,928
2006	5,543	396	5,939
2005	5,713	401	6,114
2004	5,629	402	6,031
2003	5,700	400	6,100
2002	5,712	432	6,144
2001	5,813	440	6,253
2000	6,550	442	6,992
1999	7,031	446	7,477
1998	6,894	524	7,418
1997	6,903	577	7,480
1996	7,215	583	7,798
1995	7,151	593	7,744

 

 

I imagine with digital, if there was still over 7,500 site in the United state alone that it would be released in nearly 6,000 theater....

 

 

 

 

[Lordmandeep]

14 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Yeah I've been thinking about this... Despite the fact it doesn't have holidays, just how high could the weekdays go if Sunday is 70+? Like, could we seriously be looking at 35m+ for Monday and 30+ for Tuesday? Even then it won't get the records...

 

TFA was just so consistent M-W, obvious drop off Thursday due to xmas eve.

 

If it does say, 300 WE, then 35/33/25/20, that'd be a monstrous 453 first week, over 60m more than TFA. 

 

IW's first week was 50% of total, CW was 55%, using 52% as midground gives 871m total.

 

Overall, we all know the weekend record is breaking, the real question is just how high can it climb during the weekdays?

 

 

I am thinking it will have a very huge 2nd weekend, a lot of people I know are putting off seeing this film to its 2nd weekend and I am sure a lot of fans will rewatch it again.

 

I am watching it with my GF and then my cousins on its 2nd weekend lol 

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, Sam said:

Welp. All that freaking out over TC a few days ago really age well now 😝

I doubt anyone freaked out about what the actual TV would be, but with how low that talked number was (the fact it could do 4,600 just confirm the reaction of someone seeing 4,400 being talked about has strange)

 

It is not like freaking out or not freaking out about movies like that box office look good at the moment someone care either, do not need to age, all this talk is absurdly ridiculous, it is some human misprogramming and completely unhealthy that we care about that movie OW.

Edited April 22, 2019 by Barnack

[Inuyaki]

3 hours ago, RealLyre said:

my current EG prediction

 

60M Thur previews

72M true Friday (45.4% from previews)

full Friday 132M

Sat 88.8M -35% drop

Sun 71.2M -20% drop

total 292M~ OW

 

Question from a noob. What exactly counts as Thursday and what as Friday? I can't wrap my head around why those numbers are so close in predictions. The number of screenings on Friday should be much higher, right?

[Ledmonkey96]

At 4.6k theaters if Endgame has the same PTA as TFA we'd be looking at 275mil, I'm not sure how much higher the PTA can go but 300mil requires a PTA of 65k, Tbf though when TFA earned the OW record it did so with an 11.1k PTA increase over Jurassic World. 

 

@Inuyaki Thursday previews count for all showings the start at or before 6 AM friday morning.

Edited April 22, 2019 by Ledmonkey96

[HouseOfTheSun]

1 minute ago, Inuyaki said:

Question from a noob. What exactly counts as Thursday and what as Friday? I can't wrap my head around why those numbers are so close in predictions. The number of screenings on Friday should be much higher, right?

Technically Thursday previews and Friday count all as Friday, a practice held since before the Aurora shootings which caused theaters to begin showing earlier shows on Thursday instead of at midnight only. 

 

True Friday is what it makes beginning with a Friday matinees. Thursday preview numbers are reported separately so a lot of people separate that and true Friday numbers  

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

3 minutes ago, Inuyaki said:

Question from a noob. What exactly counts as Thursday and what as Friday? I can't wrap my head around why those numbers are so close in predictions. The number of screenings on Friday should be much higher, right?

 

Not really, as they cram in way more screens on Thursday night. So for a 20 screen cinema, they may use 15 screens for previews. On Friday, they might use 5-7. 

Also, Thursday will be jam packed at almost every show. Friday matinee shows will be less full.