The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[FlashMaster659]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-40 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	256	12354	53600	41246	23.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 48

[charlie Jatinder]

Based on available data

On 10/23/2019 at 11:54 AM, Jedi Jat said:

AMC was 25% of opening day for Endgame, Thursday would have been around 30% Approx.

Regal 21% (Thursday 22%) and Cinemark 12.5% (Thursday around 13.5-14%).

 

So these chains do around 66% for Thursday night of Endgame. In pre-sales should be around 80% of Total easily, may be higher

AMC and Cinemark were 45% of Thursday night, pre-sales shall be 60% range easily. Going by @keysersoze123 we have $6.25mn previews, but on 80-85% covered sample, that will give previews at $13 million so far. Which is, I guess, okay this far out.

 

The rest weekend is $8.5mn Approx, which will extrapolate to $20 million worth sales. So about $33 million in sales for weekend so far, and overall around $37mn Approx or roughly Endgame 24 hours.

 

Basically, it has doubled its opening 24 hours so far in 20 days of pre-sales. I don't think it will reach anywhere near $100 million at this pace, in fact $70-80mn range seems like it.

 

$200mn opening seems hard.

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-40 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	2	256	12354	53600	41246	23.05%

 

Total Seats Sold Today: 48

are you tracking it manually? Gosh, that seems like a huge chunk of work.  Thanks for the numbers. In fact many of you here manually tracking 200 plus shows just for pre-sales, this far out. I sometime check like 30 shows at local plex on opening night of a film, even that looks like a huge work to me.

Edited November 10, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[FlashMaster659]

Frozen II Inland Empire Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-12 Days

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Seats Left	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	119	1703	30338	28635	5.61%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 6

Total Seats Added Today: 686

Total Seats Sold Today: 96

[charlie Jatinder]

Just realised that if SW9 opened to $180mn, that will be like half of Endgame. In fact FSS may be less than half of $297mn. TFA was $190mn FSS & TLJ $175mn. 

Edited November 10, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[FlashMaster659]

20 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

are you tracking it manually? Gosh, that seems like a huge chunk of work.  Thanks for the numbers. In fact many of you here manually tracking 200 plus shows just for pre-sales, this far out. I sometime check like 30 shows at local plex on opening night of a film, even that looks like a huge work to me.

Haha yeah it's a 2-hour marathon of counting every night

[XXR & Friends]

18 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Just realised that if SW9 opened to $180mn, that will be like half of Endgame. In fact FSS may be less than half of $297mn. TFA was $190mn FSS & TLJ $175mn. 

 

$180 million, while huge in the grand scheme, would be disappointing for the franchise's main saga finale. It would also point to the gulf between Marvel and Star Wars at this point. 

[jedijake]

Wait, so based on numbers from right now (November 10) you are saying that the opening day for TROS will be $70-$80 million with a $200 million OW looking unlikely?

 

I really don't understand how someone can come to that conclusion based on 40 days prior to release. That's WICKED low.Maybe I don't quite understand what is being said. 

Edited November 10, 2019 by jedijake

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, jedijake said:

Wait, so based on numbers from right now (November 10) you are saying that the opening day for TROS will be $70-$80 million with a $200 million OW looking unlikely?

 

I really don't understand how someone can come to that conclusion based on 40 days prior to release. That's WICKED low.Maybe I don't quite understand what is being said. 

He's extrapolating through comparisons and patterns.  He's saying pre-sales will be around $70-80m - not OD.  That doesn't seem unreasonable considering the previous pre-sale numbers for recent SW and the latest Avengers movies.   If it does hold that pace then $200m would probably be hard.

[MagnarTheGreat]

21 hours ago, cdsacken said:

I'm still on the 600+ domestic train. 200 ow, 160 ow whichever. Anyway you want it that's the way you get it.

Ralph Breaks The Internet had a 3.57 first weekend multiplier after its 6 year gap off a Wednesday opening. Frozen 2 also has the same gap. It doesn't have to open that big to leg out to high BO even though it'll be more frontloaded than it was 6 years ago (which had a way lot of stamina well above the average). Animated movies are pretty good for a lot of stamina and I imagine Frozen 2 will still soak up money as a holiday holdover late in December.

 

 

Edited November 10, 2019 by MagnarTheGreat

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1555

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1601

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7647	33	22870	33.44%	9	182

The Rise of Skywalker Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

1565

3153

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

1603

3926

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
7708	61	22870	33.70%	9	182

[JB33]

If TRoS falls below $200M OW that would be pretty depressing, in all honesty. I mean, I certainly GET IT. I would just be sad. Tough to see Star Wars fall like that. As much as I love the MCU Star Wars is still #1 me. Always will be.

 

What about you @Porthos?

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, JB33 said:

What about you @Porthos?

Anything I have to say about this subject is inherently biased, especially under current circumstances in SW Discourse, and thus I think I shall pass for now. 

[a2k]

If SW9 has the same % growth in legs from SW8 (2.82x) that AIW had from AOU (2.39x to 2.63x) then it gets a 3.1x multiplier. But AIW had a huge growth in ow. If SW9 shows a drop to 180-200 ow from 220, it does 560-620 dom with 3.1x.

 

AIW was a rare sequel that shows such a growth in legs (that too despite a much bigger ow...amazing). SW8 was so mixed and it's run fell so short of expectations that one can bet on a leggier run for SW9.

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

215

1030

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

207

1695

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1022	64	10169	10.05%	9	59

 

Showings added: 4

Seats added: 630

 

Adjusted Lion King comp: 13.12M

Frozen 2 Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

218

1030

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

238

1695

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
1098	76	10169	10.80%	9	59

 

Adjusted Lion King comp: 12.89M

[Inceptionzq]

23 hours ago, Inceptionzq said:

Ford v Ferrari Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

29

434

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

42

738

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
105	31	3107	3.38%	8	19

 

Adjusted Terminator comp: 1.74M

Adjusted Ad Astra comp: 1.89M

Adjusted Rambo comp: 1.84M

Ford v Ferrari Thursday Night Showings Denver

AMC Westminster 24

Total

41

434

AMC Highlands Ranch 24

Total

42

738

 

SEATS SOLD	SOLD TODAY	TOTAL SEATS	PERCENT SOLD	THEATERS	SHOWINGS
140	35	3107	4.51%	8	19

 

Adjusted Terminator comp: 1.82M

Adjusted Ad Astra comp: 2.11M

Adjusted Rambo comp: 2.11M

[jedijake]

What were the %'s sold for TFA and TLJ at this point?

 

All of this $180-$200 million OW talk is rather depressing. And for those saying it could happen, what are your expected preview numbers for Thursday?

Edited November 10, 2019 by jedijake

[FlashMaster659]

13 minutes ago, jedijake said:

What were the %'s sold for TFA and TLJ at this point?

 

All of this $180-$200 million OW talk is rather depressing. And for those saying it could happen, what are your expected preview numbers for Thursday?

Previews would probably be around $35M-$40M if a $180M-$200M OW results.

 

I personally still think previews are probably gonna be in the mid-40s

Edited November 10, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, jedijake said:

What were the %'s sold for TFA and TLJ at this point?

 

All of this $180-$200 million OW talk is rather depressing. And for those saying it could happen, what are your expected preview numbers for Thursday?

There are no apples to apples data. People are just extrapolating. Just hold on to your horses and wait until release week. To me its doing great and that is not just AMC or CIN. I did show Alamo which % wise is way stronger than both the bigger chains and I am stopping looking for any data except F2(not daily) and more wider search of SW9 BO data. I will see what I can get by next weekend.

[ZackM]

On 11/9/2019 at 4:42 PM, ZackM said:

The Rise of Skywalker Celebration Cinema (Michigan) Premiere Night Seat Report: T-40 days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Perct Sold
Totals	-	57	5,479	10,446	4,967	47.55%

I've decided to get more ambitious and found some more theater chains to get data from in Michigan...Here's data for TROS.  I'll try to get Frozen 2 data for all of these theaters starting tomorrow.

 

The Rise of Skywalker - Various theater chains (Michigan) - Premiere Night Seat Report: T-39 days and counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	3	232	29424	41155	11731	28.50%

 

 

There are a boatload of huge 3D shows around Detroit that are completely empty.  Someone needs to make the call and just kill 3D.