The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

14 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 D4  - overall 6706 shows 206330/1219367 2816271.62  +48616
MTC2 D4 - overall 5475 shows 191643/862015 1860548.00  +44612

 

Also I had run D5 earlier morning

 

MTC1 D5 - overall 6054 shows 121719/1120589 1624264.45
MTC2 D5 - overall 4373 shows 107994/688022 1020897.00

MTC1 D6 - overall 5103 shows 149919/1011490 2085311.56

MTC2 D6 - overall 3495 shows 128312/600368 1304156.00

 

It will have strong weekdays for sure.

 

 

 

 

Quick update on D7/8 from this morning.

SW9

MTC1 D7 - overall 5101 shows 88025/1008996 1208116.47
MTC2 D7 - overall 3318 shows 70792/577970 695399.00
MTC1 D8 - overall 4658 shows 46147/944830 671354.03
MTC2 D8 - overall 2809 shows 37010/493062 382459.00

 

I would that is strong that it has sold so many tickets post Christmas as well. Major bumps will be seen only on the day before.

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

prediction for total at week's end?

[keysersoze123]

2 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

prediction for total at week's end?

I have not looked that far ahead. But @Jedi Jat did say 385m. Let us see how things progress. But this release date is really good as next 2 weeks will have elevated weekdays.

[RockyMountain]

Last Jedi had 368m by its second Sunday. If these predictions hold true getting to 600m might still very much be on the table for TROS.

Edited December 23, 2019 by RockyMountain

[JB33]

16 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Last Jedi had 368m by its second Sunday. If these predictions hold true getting to 600m might still very much be on the table for TROS.

Thing is, TLJ's second Sunday was Christmas Eve, so it still had Christmas Day, Boxing Day and a good chunk of the holiday in general left. TROS's 2nd Sunday will be the 29th so it will have already used up its most lucrative days.

[ZackM]

16 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Last Jedi had 368m by its second Sunday. If these predictions hold true getting to 600m might still very much be on the table for TROS.

TLJ had Christmas immediately after its second Sunday.  TROS will likely be ahead of TLJ at that point, but will get blitzed in the weekdays that follow.

[TwoMisfits]

On 12/16/2019 at 7:46 PM, TwoMisfits said:

I know I haven't posted these in a few weeks, but this seemed like an eventful weekend to do so:)...

 

1st local (Cinemark) has SET its final schedule for the weekend (now, crazily, they have not set for Wed/Thurs, so this is odd to say the least, but I guess they want the Xmas buying money)...and it's a SHOCKER!  TROS is getting ZERO extra showings from its presale set.  So, it is going into the weekend with 4.5 screens and 19 showings (4 3d, 15 2d), which is LESS than a LOT of the premier supers outings (and about 60% of TLK which got the clear out of clear outs this summer)...and obviously less than the other 2 trilogy Star Wars films...

 

NEW

TROS - 4.5 screens (the biggies) - 19 showings (4 3d, 15 2d)

Cats - 1 - 5 showings (smallest) - it's gonna be all about the legs for this, since 300 seats total per day isn't gonna get much

Dabang 3 - 1 - 4 showings - even with TROS opening, they are keeping some foreign films - these play strongly here, but as strongly as TROS?  I'm betting that TROS contract is a harsh percent split

Prati Roju Prandage / Venky Mama - .5/.25 - 2/1 showings - see above

 

RETURNING

Jumanji - 2 - 10 showings - IT KEEPS A SECOND SCREEN - yep, that opener and its likely lower % take to the studio keeps it on 2 screens - and since this is popular and will presell some tickets for probably every show, the theater won't be able to scratch showings for this for TROS - now, it is dropped from 2 biggest screens to 2 smallest screens, so it's still looking at a harsh drop:)...

Richard Jewell - 1 - 5 showings - For now, holds a full screen - good contract...but I assume the late night one might get stolen here

Knives Out - 1 - 5 showings

Frozen - 1 - 5 showings

 

Dropped (it cleared out most everything at Jumanji) - A Beautiful Day in the Nieghborhood, Queen and Slim

 

This is worrying sign #1 for a $200M+ OW hope...if small and midsize are getting sold a crappy deal by Disney, they have the ability, with the holidays, to hold things like Knives Out, Jumanji, and Frozen and keep their smaller screens for those movies (and other new openers) and not just clear screens for TROS.  It's not a huge deal, but 300 tickets per day/per theater could have a decently big effect if it multiplies over 4000 theaters making the same types of decisions...

 

And the OW does have an effect - I have to run now, but my 1st local (Cinemark) has set next FSS...TROS is losing 3 showings (not huge, but it didn't have many to start) and losing one of its bigger screens to get a smallest one (Little Women getting a 2nd biggest screen)...more later when I fill this in late night after driving through Xmas lights and roasting marshmallows for smores over an open fire:)...

 

EDIT To post the set:

 

NEW(ish) - booked Wed

Little Women - 1 - 5 showings (2nd biggest screen)

Spies in Disguise - 1 - 5 showings (smallest)

 

RETURNING

TROS - 4 - 16 showings (3 3d, 13 2d) - 2 biggest, midsize, and smallest theaters - lost 1/2 screen and 3 showings 

Cats - 1 - 5 showings - same set

The foreign films (PRP/D) - .75 - 3 showings

Jumanji - 1 - 5 showings - gave the 2nd screen away

Knives Out - .75 - 4 showings - gives the late night to one of the foreign films

Richard Jewell - .75 - 3 showings - has the best contract EVER to stay here in weekend 3

Frozen 2 - 1 - 5 showings - even when it hits the local cheap-o, it stays here, too...probably b/c we siold Coco in both places, and they'll be more than enough demand with the Atom TMobile 1st run deal which makes it the same price as the cheap-o, except on Tuesdays

 

Gone - Nothing but 1 foreign film

 

Now, there's still roughly a fullish screen left, so I expect them to book a new foreign film, or if they fail, to parcel out the last screen showings to the "hit" movie each day...

 

PS - TLJ didn't lose any showings/screens in weekend #2...but then again, no one expected its cratering, so this theater presold all its screens for the 4 week mandatory timeframe prior to it ever opening...they did not make this mistake for a 3rd time, after getting burned by TLJ and Solo...eventually, they do learn...
 

Edited December 24, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Welfin]

Star Wars should give all of its screens to Cats as penance.

[ZackM]

Does anyone have a rough estimate of what percentage of TROS's previews were from presales?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

How is Little Women doing in pre sales? Variety has tracking at 15-20m 5day which seems low. Means final domestic tally would be 50-60m pending WOM and Oscar legs 
 

it’s selling well enough at theaters near me so far 

[Eric is Quiet]

Dolittle Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-24 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Sold	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	23	28	5,273	0.53%

 

Total Shows Added Today: 4

Total Seats Added Today: 688

Total Seats Sold Today: 4

 

Comp

0.346x of Maleficent (795K)

 

Hey look! Something happened!

[keysersoze123]

Little Woman - Is it not having previews. I just see shows for wednesday OD.

 

I have just MTC1 numbers for now. its at 32222/136902 352578.79. I would say national sales would be around 5x. So that is around 1.75m OD sold so far. Not bad as it has more than a day of PS and then walk ins. Its definitely doing more than 15-20m. Probably double that number is possible.

[XXR & Friends]

7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Little Woman - Is it not having previews. I just see shows for wednesday OD.

 

Theaters close early on the 24th, so it would be kind of pointless. 

[HenryK81]

For any other film, $175 Million would be amazingly incredible. But, for a Star Wars (Trilogy) movie, anything below a $200 Million OW is a failure in my eyes. Lucasfilm needs need leadership, someone who actually cares about the IP...not someone who wants to change it.

[keysersoze123]

On 12/22/2019 at 9:17 PM, keysersoze123 said:

MTC1 D4  - overall 6706 shows 206330/1219367 2816271.62  +48616
MTC2 D4 - overall 5475 shows 191643/862015 1860548.00  +44612

 

MTC1 D5 - overall 6054 shows 121719/1120589 1624264.45
MTC2 D5 - overall 4373 shows 107994/688022 1020897.00

MTC1 D6 - overall 5103 shows 149919/1011490 2085311.56

MTC2 D6 - overall 3495 shows 128312/600368 1304156.00

 

It will have strong weekdays for sure.

SW9 D5/6

MTC1 D5 - overall 6174 shows 185262/1133660 2409908.38  +63543
MTC2 D5 - overall 4463 shows 164632/695663 1530813.00  +56638
MTC1 D6 - overall 5511 shows 183180/1062356 2526838.57 +33261
MTC2 D6 - overall 4676 shows 154760/751666 1571527.00 +26448

 

Good PS for tomorrow and great for christmas day. Shaping up to be bigger day than Monday for sure.

[narniadis]

Can we move the SW weekend number crap to the appropriate thread please and thank you? This thread is for whats coming up, not what just happened. 

 

On topic, thank you Keyser for sharing a peak at Little Women - hoping it does at least 30m through Sunday as that would theoretically set it up for the 90-110m window with awards season coming on. 

Edited December 24, 2019 by narniadis

[JB33]

52 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

SW9 D5/6

MTC1 D5 - overall 6174 shows 185262/1133660 2409908.38  +63543
MTC2 D5 - overall 4463 shows 164632/695663 1530813.00  +56638
MTC1 D6 - overall 5511 shows 183180/1062356 2526838.57 +33261
MTC2 D6 - overall 4676 shows 154760/751666 1571527.00 +26448

 

Good PS for tomorrow and great for christmas day. Shaping up to be bigger day than Monday for sure.

I would hope so. Tuesday we're looking at roughly $20M and I would hope for about a 70-75% Christmas Day jump for $34M to $35M.

[ZackM]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Various theater chains (Michigan) Christmas Seat Report: T-2 days
12/23/2019	Showings	Seats Left	Total Seats	Seats Sold	Pct. Sold
Total	351	62,256	71,427	9,171	12.84%
% of Seats Sold	Sellouts	90%+	80%+	70%+	60%+
# of Showings	0	1	2	7	23

 

Huge increase today for Christmas.

Edited December 24, 2019 by ZackM

[charlie Jatinder]

I never tracked a Christmas eve, so no idea how those PS gonna work. Gonna check some historical data but not sure if that will help.

[Joyous Legion]

2 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

I never tracked a Christmas eve, so no idea how those PS gonna work. Gonna check some historical data but not sure if that will help.

Just say some number from aether and be off by 15% when you wake up. That’s what I’ve been doing in Korea