The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[keysersoze123]

Its deadline. When do their projections work. Even on friday their projections tend to be wild. here its pure guess. I would rather trust @Shawn

[JB33]

1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its deadline. When do their projections work. Even on friday their projections tend to be wild. here its pure guess. I would rather trust @Shawn

What's your personal impression of next weekend @keysersoze123?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Uncut Gems is playing everywhere near me and selling well (albeit in smaller theaters). 
 

The AMC added like 4 additional Little Women showtimes tomorrow. 

[Shawn Robbins]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Its deadline. When do their projections work. Even on friday their projections tend to be wild. here its pure guess. I would rather trust @Shawn

I appreciate the vote of confidence... this time of year is such a headache though. 😆

 

I'm looking at Anchorman 2 as a rough comp right now. Opened 2 days earlier in 2013 and didn't have the obvious fan rush, but also had very mixed WOM and less family appeal. Figuring TROS can at least come close to its daily progressions post-OW based on the notion of backloaded presales and the RT audience score being more representative than CinemaScore (which I rarely put much stock in anyway).

 

Hobbit 2 would be a more bullish comparison but maybe worth considering with some adjustments for the fact it opened earlier.

[JB33]

14 minutes ago, Shawn said:

I appreciate the vote of confidence... this time of year is such a headache though. 😆

 

I'm looking at Anchorman 2 as a rough comp right now. Opened 2 days earlier in 2013 and didn't have the obvious fan rush, but also had very mixed WOM and less family appeal. Figuring TROS can at least come close to its daily progressions post-OW based on the notion of backloaded presales and the RT audience score being more representative than CinemaScore (which I rarely put much stock in anyway).

 

Hobbit 2 would be a more bullish comparison but maybe worth considering with some adjustments for the fact it opened earlier.

I'm kinda using both. TROS is performing a bit like both except for the weird 50+% drop on Christmas Eve for Anchorman 2, and it obviously will not jump 188% like that did on Christmas Day. 

 

Desolation of Smaug seems to be a pretty good comparison so far. The biggest deviation will be Boxing Day. Smaug jumped 76.7% on Christmas Day, then a further 13.1% on Boxing Day Thurs. Now I wouldn't have known any better than to go along with that but tracking here suggests that's not happening for TROS, nor will it jump quite as high as 76.7% on Christmas Day. Could jump as high as 70% though.

Edited December 24, 2019 by JB33

[Poseidon]

Those predictions for Little Women are obviously way off. 

 

I'm pretty positive, that it'll score at least $10m on OD alone. 

 

 

Also, Spies in Disguise doesn't look too bad, has quite some tickets sold already.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

10 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Those predictions for Little Women are obviously way off. 

 

I'm pretty positive, that it'll score at least $10m on OD alone. 

 

 

Also, Spies in Disguise doesn't look too bad, has quite some tickets sold already.

10m on OD for Little Women? 
 

I hope so but that seems a bit much? Unless the trackers here can say otherwise, I’m being more conservative with 5-6m

[Poseidon]

2 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

10m on OD for Little Women? 
 

I hope so but that seems a bit much? Unless the trackers here can say otherwise, I’m being more conservative with 5-6m

Walter Mitty did close to 8m in 2013. Even 47 Ronin scored 7m. CD is huge and LW has way more theaters to open in.

 

Presales look very good, this is going to explode. 
Let's hope capacities are big enough next to SW. 

[MattW]

3 hours ago, Marek the Jedi said:

I am sure it will be more then 70-80mil

Yeah, after that Monday I think 85-95. BOPro's 100m prediction looks a bit too bullish tho

[MattW]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

10m on OD for Little Women? 
 

I hope so but that seems a bit much? Unless the trackers here can say otherwise, I’m being more conservative with 5-6m

Yeah 5-6 would be plenty good. Wolf of Wall Street did 9m opening day and through Sunday the 5th had made 63m and 116 total dom. Same ratios with a 6m OD is 42 and 75m. And I suspect little women is less OD loaded.

[a2k]

I update my guess pretty frequently based on numbers, projections and insights of other posters

 

Weekday	Date	Gross	Daily %	Total	Cumes	Wknd %
Fri	20 Dec 19	89.6		89.6
Sat	21 Dec 19	47.5	-47.0%	137.1
Sun	22 Dec 19	40.3	-15.2%	177.4	177.4	-
Mon	23 Dec 19	29.4	-27.0%	206.8
Tue	24 Dec 19	19.5	-33.7%	226.3
Wed	25 Dec 19	29.5	51.3%	255.8
Thu	26 Dec 19	28.5	-3.4%	284.3	106.9
Fri	27 Dec 19	29.0	1.8%	313.3
Sat	28 Dec 19	30.5	5.2%	343.8
Sun	29 Dec 19	22.5	-26.2%	366.3	82.0	-53.8%
Mon	30 Dec 19	17.0	-24.4%	383.3
Tue	31 Dec 19	14.0	-17.6%	397.3
Wed	1 Jan 20	19.0	35.7%	416.3
Thu	2 Jan 20	9.5	-50.0%	425.8	59.5
Fri	3 Jan 20	12.0	26.3%	437.8
Sat	4 Jan 20	16.5	37.5%	454.3
Sun	5 Jan 20	10.0	-39.4%	464.3	38.5	-53.0%

 

Adding 2.25x the 38.5 weekend gives 551 dom.

 

Smaug added just about 1.85x the Jan 3-5 weekend (it's 5th) to it's tally, but the last of a long saga might show steadiness on the lower-side and because of bigger numbers as such, might retain more screens.

[cdsacken]

I hope all of you have Merry Christmas or Happy Hanukkah or whichever holiday you celebrate with family you love. If you are not with family you are loved and I hope you still have a happy holidays. Love and blessings to you.

[Poseidon]

5 minutes ago, MattW said:

Yeah 5-6 would be plenty good. Wolf of Wall Street did 9m opening day and through Sunday the 5th had made 63m and 116 total dom. Same ratios with a 6m OD is 42 and 75m. And I suspect little women is less OD loaded.

Every major theater you look at in NYC is already sold out all afternoon, even into the evening. Yeah, it's lacking capacities here and there, but this is going to be bigger than $6m. 

[Marek the Jedi]

15 minutes ago, a2k said:

I update my guess pretty frequently based on numbers, projections and insights of other posters

 

Weekday	Date	Gross	Daily %	Total	Cumes	Wknd %
Fri	20 Dec 19	89.6		89.6
Sat	21 Dec 19	47.5	-47.0%	137.1
Sun	22 Dec 19	40.3	-15.2%	177.4	177.4	-
Mon	23 Dec 19	29.4	-27.0%	206.8
Tue	24 Dec 19	19.5	-33.7%	226.3
Wed	25 Dec 19	29.5	51.3%	255.8
Thu	26 Dec 19	28.5	-3.4%	284.3	106.9
Fri	27 Dec 19	29.0	1.8%	313.3
Sat	28 Dec 19	30.5	5.2%	343.8
Sun	29 Dec 19	22.5	-26.2%	366.3	82.0	-53.8%
Mon	30 Dec 19	17.0	-24.4%	383.3
Tue	31 Dec 19	14.0	-17.6%	397.3
Wed	1 Jan 20	19.0	35.7%	416.3
Thu	2 Jan 20	9.5	-50.0%	425.8	59.5
Fri	3 Jan 20	12.0	26.3%	437.8
Sat	4 Jan 20	16.5	37.5%	454.3
Sun	5 Jan 20	10.0	-39.4%	464.3	38.5	-53.0%

 

Adding 2.25x the 38.5 weekend gives 551 dom.

 

Smaug added just about 1.85x the Jan 3-5 weekend (it's 5th) to it's tally, but the last of a long saga might show steadiness on the lower-side and because of bigger numbers as such, might retain more screens.

looks very good!

I would do only two changes  Tuesday with 20.5 ( @Jedi Jat ) and wednesday (monday+10%)

Marek

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, JB33 said:

What's your personal impression of next weekend @keysersoze123?

Friday is still far away. If tomorrow it has the boost that PS is showing, we could see 35m christmas day. That should take the 2nd weekend > 90m. So that should be the ratio we should look for.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

17 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

Every major theater you look at in NYC is already sold out all afternoon, even into the evening. Yeah, it's lacking capacities here and there, but this is going to be bigger than $6m. 

Hopefully you are right!

[danhtruong5]

What about the PS for Jumanjil and F2 on 25th Dec?

[Shawn Robbins]

1 hour ago, JB33 said:

I'm kinda using both. TROS is performing a bit like both except for the weird 50+% drop on Christmas Eve for Anchorman 2, and it obviously will not jump 188% like that did on Christmas Day. 

 

Desolation of Smaug seems to be a pretty good comparison so far. The biggest deviation will be Boxing Day. Smaug jumped 76.7% on Christmas Day, then a further 13.1% on Boxing Day Thurs. Now I wouldn't have known any better than to go along with that but tracking here suggests that's not happening for TROS, nor will it jump quite as high as 76.7% on Christmas Day. Could jump as high as 70% though.

There's where I'm thinking TROS will have some sort of hybrid of those extreme drops/increases between the A2/H2 comparisons. The micro-projections are always the pain of forecasting, IMO, and dailies around the holidays certainly fit that bill to me.

[ZackM]

For the theaters I was able to track today, TROS only dropped a little under 20% from yesterday's numbers.  Obviously that won't be representative of full DOM numbers, but it's not a bad sign.

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, ZackM said:

For the theaters I was able to track today, TROS only dropped a little under 20% from yesterday's numbers.  Obviously that won't be representative of full DOM numbers, but it's not a bad sign.

I am seeing something similar at 2 MTC as well. But there are various other parameters that come into play. Canada/Marcus etc is doing discount tickets and so overall average ticket price nationally will be lower. Let us wait and see where it ends up. But I wont be surprised if it goes up a bit from Charlie's early estimates.