The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[DAJK]

Holy shit already 2 sell-outs for Tenet tonight. Sure as hell didn't expect that

 

More later...

Edited August 27, 2020 by DAJK

[Eric the Clown]

23 hours ago, Eric the Platypus said:

The New Mutants Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-2 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Unavailable	Total Seats?	% Unavailable
TOTALS	3	15	457	902	50.67%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today: 1

Total Seats Sold Today: 139

 

Actually really good stuff here. Another sellout is nice to see and there's a supreme gain after yesterday was so muted. Hopefully the momentum continues.

The New Mutants Greater Philadelphia Area Seat Report T-1 and Counting

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats Unavailable	Total Seats?	% Unavailable
TOTALS	3	17	485	1127	43.03%

Total Showings Added Today: 2

Total Seats Added Today: 225

Total Seats Sold Today: 28

 

Even with the limited showtimes, this is an awful last day. I would say we'll see what happens tomorrow, but...

 

Unfortunately, my Bed Bath and Beyond job conflicts with the first showtimes. New Mutants begins at 6, my shift ends at 7. And I'll have zero access to a computer for almost the entire day. So alas, this is my last report for New Mutants for the time being. Tragic!

[charlie Jatinder]

How did that happened🙄

[DAJK]

Tenet in Canada OD (Victoria BC specifically):

 

Theatre 1: 230 tickets (69 IMAX)

Theatre 2: 221 tickets

 

Given that this was strictly evening shows, I'm going to compare this to previous Thursday preview nights, since it didn't have a full day of shows like most movies on OD (not sure if that was part of the release, or if the theatres in Victoria just simply didn't book Tenet for matinees). 

 

This is insanely strong. Had more than enough theatres to compensate for the limited seating (35-50 seats per auditorium). Some comps for Thursday previews:

 

Theatre 2:

142% 1917 - $4.61M

248% Dark Fate - $5.95M

180% Zombieland - $5.13M

219% Rocketman - $5.10M

 

Theatre 1:

66% Joker - $8.58M

85% Ad Astra OD (can't find my preview # separate from full OD) - $6.12M

106% Aladdin - $7.42M

 

The theatre 2 comps would suggest something around what I would normally say as "5M" if this was a previews night. However, theatre 2 was where there were 4 sell-outs so there's the potential that it was in part a capacity issue. Plus, movies geared towards old white people over-index here (and Zombieland over-indexed too lol). Theatre 1 comps would suggest something like 6M+ (a few other comps I didn't list are in that 6-7 or up to 8M range too). 

 

I don't know however how good any sort of "comps" would be though, which is why I decided not to list too many to throw myself off. Obviously these are very different times, different capacities, a different moviegoing culture altogether. Certain parts of the country may be more inclined to go to the movies than others. Victoria has a lot of old people, which could deter some numbers. But (as of right now) Vancouver Island has been doing well with the pandemic, and so people here might not be as deterred from going to a theatre as in other parts of the country. So that throws off comps. Also, I don't really know whether to measure this against movies on OD or previews; I mostly did previews since there were only evening shows, but that could skew things as well. 

 

I could also try another method, which has a LOT more holes  Victoria accounts for about 0.8% of Canada's population (~340,000 vs ~37.5M), and the other two local theatres aren't playing Tenet tonight, so these shows serve about 0.8% of Canada's population. If I REALLY wanted to extrapolate from 451 tickets sold if Victoria...

 

451 tickets                       49,743 tickets

____________           =        _____________

340,000 people                 37.5M people

 

49,743 tickets sold in Canada tonight. Ticket prices in Canada range from 11 to 14 dollars for regular shows (Cineplex accounts for 80% of Canada's marketplace and they're almost always on the higher end of that range). IMAX is 21 bucks, but given the proportion of seniors (and maybe children's?) tickets being sold, I'm just going to assume an average ticket price of 13.50 dollars CAD. So 49,743 tickets x 13.50 average ticket price would be 671.5k CAD. With the current exchange rate, that's 510k USD.

 

This isn't an exact science whatsoever, and I would really question the reliability of that number. But given that this is the first time I've been able to play with numbers in months, I'm having fun with it and just doing whatever. Using my comps above gives another picture: if this was a normal previews night I'd say something like 6-8M based off these numbers (probably split the difference around 7M given some other comps fell around there). However, since this is just Canada, this is a bit different. Canada typically accounts for 8-10% of the domestic box office (from what I've read), but with Unhinged, Canada's share was much greater (its Canadian opening was around 15% of its American opening).

 

So if we were going on the normal 8-10%, the Canadian "share" would be a lot smaller, and the total domestic # would be larger, with less reliance on Canada. If Canada's Tenet ticket sales will account for as much as 15% of the domestic market (also up in the air since more American theatres are opening... but also the hurricanes... this is definitely not an exact science) then the Canadian share could be quite a lot larger and the total domestic # won't reflect this performance in Canada. That being said, I'm just going to run with conventional wisdom and suggest that these comps could indicate about 600k in Canada for OD, which is higher than what I have bolded above (say, for instance, Victoria under-indexed).

 

The point of all this rambling is that it's pretty much impossible to predict anything when we are in such unprecedented times. I can have all the fun with numbers that I want, but it's 11PM, my brain is mush, so I'm just going to say 500-600k. Which would normally equate to 5-7.5M previews (or OD in this case) if this was a traditional domestic release. Not sure if this is any indication of what it will do next week, but this was fun to look at. I may have missed something entirely, but there ya go

[charlie Jatinder]

TL;DR Canada $500k Approx Wednesday. Let say even cut 20% of it for conservative reasons, that's $400k, which I think is pretty great. Thanks @DAJK

 

Wish @ZackM was active, we would have had almost all of Canada's sample.

[lorddemaxus]

It would be pretty funny if Tenet's Canadian opening beats The New Mutant's domestic opening.

Edited August 27, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, lorddemaxus said:

It would be pretty funny if Tenet's Canadian opening beats The New Mutant's domestic opening.

Well say 400k Wed, another 600-700k today. Weekend may be $4.5mn. That's around $5.5mn. Seems tough.

[DAJK]

27 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

TL;DR Canada $500k Approx Wednesday. Let say even cut 20% of it for conservative reasons, that's $400k, which I think is pretty great. Thanks @DAJK

 

Wish @ZackM was active, we would have had almost all of Canada's sample.

shoot I was a little bit high, but all things considered I won't beat myself up too much on that one given the circumstances  thanks for the update!

[titanic2187]

That 55% single ticket sales worried me, this suggest people struggle to convince the rest to go back to cinema and they end up watching this alone.

 

 

[Hangman]

12 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

It would be pretty funny if Tenet's Canadian opening beats The New Mutant's domestic opening.

I read that Warner Brothers isn't releasing Tenet's Canadian numbers.  They'll just be added to the American numbers next week.

[john2000]

so from what i have read, it seems that both new york and new jersay will allow movie theaters to reopen soon, finger crossed

 

Murphy, speaking during a Wednesday news conference, said he hopes to reopen indoor dining and movie theaters by Sept. 14

 

https://patch.com/new-jersey/asbury-park/watch-live-gov-murphy-nj-coronavirus-reopen-update-8-26-20

Edited August 27, 2020 by john2000

[cax16]

 

[DAJK]

4 hours ago, Hangman said:

I read that Warner Brothers isn't releasing Tenet's Canadian numbers.  They'll just be added to the American numbers next week.

the notcool isn't directed at you, but that's NOTCOOL @ WB 😠

[keysersoze123]

On 8/26/2020 at 1:35 PM, keysersoze123 said:

Tenet Early Access Aug 31

MTC1 - 11118/124703 ~153K (628 shows) +1034

MTC2 - 8956/138340    ~113K (927 shows) +1093

 

Slightly better than yesterday but still low numbers. I will try to update 9/1 9/2 numbers if possible by this evening. 

Tenet Early Access 8/31 

MTC1 - 12049/126951 163K (642 shows)  +931

MTC2 - 9995/141320   126K (958 shows)  +1039

 

Still slowing plodding along. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Can you check Mutants Thursday @keysersoze123

[keysersoze123]

7 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Can you check Mutants Thursday @keysersoze123

I can try but most probably its too late as shows have already started. I may not get all the data. Let me check after a little while and revert. 

[keysersoze123]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Can you check Mutants Thursday @keysersoze123

New Mutant Previews

MTC1 - 14763/149903 ~176.5K (852 shows)

MTC2 - 8140/68539 ~97K (426 shows)

 

I am certain actual MTC2 numbers must be higher as its not possible for me to pull in shows after they are done. That said these numbers are not bad. I am thinking 500-600K previews. 

[Daxtreme]

I think we may see both movies show highly abnormal legs, should be really interesting!

 

Quite eager to follow these 2 movies. Literally never happened before

Edited August 28, 2020 by Daxtreme

[Krissykins]

$750k previews for New Mutants. Seems pretty decent. 

[Slicknickshady]

I agree. You I see big x men accounts on twitter acting like these numbers make the movie a bomb. I think they just want it to be a bomb because of Boone’s comments and etc. I just don’t get it. These people don’t have to like the movie. They can think Boone’s terrible. Whatever. But don’t mislead people about how it’s doing. It’s a pandemic.